（上接1版） 在广发证券资深宏观分析师吴棋滢看来，用于化债的特殊再融资专项债进一步前倾，可为基建类专项债 腾出发行时间，有望加快建设节奏。但需要注意的是，基建类专项债的发行节奏更取决于地方项目筹备 情况和建设意愿。 中央经济工作会议提出，"优化地方政府专项债券用途管理"，引发市场关注。去年以来，随着"自审自 发"试点不断深化，地方专项债投向领域正不断扩围，项目申报周期也明显缩短，地方在发债上的自主 权也大幅提升。 吴棋滢称，预计这一优化方向主要是将专项债作资本金时的投向进一步放宽，以增加专项债的带动作 用；且通过调整"自审自发"试点范围，以调动各省建设积极性。 "目前来看，专项债'自审自发'将维持当前试点范围，以进一步优化并验证试点效果。"冯琳认为，随着 试点地区在项目审核、资金管理和风险防范等方面的机制趋于成熟，试点地区扩围并带动专项债发行使 用效率持续提升将是大势所趋。 冯琳预计，今年一季度发行高峰预计将出现在1月下旬和3月上旬，而全年的发行高峰可能会在二季度， 三季度供给规模将有所回落但仍处较高水平，四季度地方债发行进入收尾阶段，但不排除视经济运行情 况推出盘活地方债务结存限额等增量政策的可能。 ...

智通财经12月23日讯（编辑 杨斌）今年的地方债发行工作接近尾声，在四季度5000亿地方政府债务结 存限额的集中落地下，2025年地方债发行规模已突破10万亿元。该部分结存限额一方面持续助力化债， 另一方面支持投资建设，业内分析认为，地方专项债结存限额的"续力"，成为年末广义财政支出的重要 支撑与补充。 申万宏源固收研究团队认为，超100%部分或来自于10月17日财政部提到的5000亿元结存限额（2000亿 元用于新增专项债），累计发行超原始4.4万亿额度规模已超过1500亿元。 随着各地收到财政部分配的5000亿元政府债务额度，部分地方披露了结存限额调整方案。兴业研究认 为，已披露的结存限额调整额度向经济强省倾斜，江苏、浙江（含宁波）、四川、深圳、新疆、吉林公 布了具体额度，分别为535、433、282、182、67、43亿元。 企业预警通数据显示，截至12月22日，今年地方债发行规模已达到10.29万亿元，这是我国地方政府债 券年度发行规模历史上首次突破10万亿元。其中，一般债发行了2.61万亿，专项债7.68万亿元。专项债 中，再融资专项债和新增专项债分别已发行了3.09万亿和4.59万亿元。 申万宏源 ...

证券研究报告 宏观 广义财政支出增长边际回升 ——11 月财政数据点评 2025 年 12 月 18 日│中国内地 动态点评 11 月财政收入端数据显示国内经济活动总体保持平稳，微观体感并未出现 与消费、投资等宏观数据相同幅度下滑的"体感差"；广义财政支出同比增 速边际回升、修正后的广义财政支出（季调后）环比增长进一步上行，显示 用于形成实物工作量的广义财政支出力度维持韧性。具体看，企业投资和工 业生产活动总体保持平稳，今年前 11 个月增值税/企业所得税累计同比增长 3.9%/1.7%、快于去年全年的-3.8%/-0.5%，投资、工业生产等宏观数据走 弱可能受到高基数和口径变化等"技术性因素"扰动；另一方面，11 月广 义财政（一般公共预算+政府性基金）支出同比降幅较 10 月的 19.1%收窄 至 1.7%，剔除注资特别国债和用于化债的"特殊专项债"后同比降幅亦较 10 月的 20.2%收窄至 3.8%；此外，修正后的（季调后）广义财政支出环比 增长从 10 月的 15%进一步上行至 33%、可能主要反映政策性金融工具投放 和地方债务结存限额下发带动部分信用扩张、拉动投资需求。具体看， ▪ 支出端而言， ...

Revenue and Expenditure Overview - In the first 11 months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 200,516 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%[6] - National general public budget expenditure reached 248,538 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%[6] Fiscal Trends - In November, broad fiscal expenditure showed improvement with a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, a significant narrowing of 17.5 percentage points compared to October[7] - Broad fiscal revenue in November fell by 5.2% year-on-year, a further decline of 4.6 percentage points from October's -0.6%[7] Budget Completion and Support - The budget completion rate for broad fiscal expenditure in November rose to 8%, up from 5.6% in October, indicating a year-end acceleration in spending[7] - The completion rate for broad fiscal revenue was 7%, consistent with the previous year and the five-year average[16] Factors Affecting Revenue - The decline in revenue is partly due to high base effects and ongoing weakness in land finance, with November's general public budget revenue showing a minimal change of -0.02% year-on-year[9] - Land finance continues to be a drag, with land transfer income remaining in negative growth territory[9] Future Fiscal Focus - Future fiscal priorities may include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, standardizing tax incentives, addressing local fiscal difficulties, and encouraging local debt management[3] - The emphasis will be on resolving issues related to local hidden debts and supplementing local financial resources[15] Expenditure Insights - General fiscal expenditure in November showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7%, but this was a significant improvement from October's decline of over 6 percentage points[29] - Health and technology-related expenditures saw notable increases, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.5% and 27.4%, respectively[29] Government Fund Performance - Government fund expenditure turned positive in November, reaching a growth of 2.8%, a significant recovery from previous declines[32] - The budget completion rate for government fund expenditure was 9.3%, below the five-year average of 10%[20]

固收｜经济工作会议后，利率为何上行 20251214 摘要 货币政策维持宽松基调，强调降本降息，但短期内市场反应平淡，配置 力量不足导致跨年行情预计震荡偏弱，明年一月后或有转机。 预计 2026 年一季度降准概率较大以缓解银行负债端压力，降息规模和 时间点尚不明确，OMO 降息或针对对资金不敏感机构，降息模式可能 多样化。 财政政策方面，增量有限，更注重用好已有政策，广义赤字预计与 2025 年持平，缺乏强劲财政刺激信号导致市场反应平淡。 特别国债和地方专项债发行量增加且期限延长，导致长期和超长期债券 供给增加，市场债券托管久期难以下行，收益率存在上行压力。 国内利率上限设置有利于国债市场稳定，扩张期内利率上行速度较慢， 央行可能通过买入国债维护国家杠杆成本。 年底至明年初银行配置力量偏弱，债市博弈超跌反弹，TL 合约波动区间 预计在 110 元至 113.5 元之间，可博弈老老债与新债税率差异。 信用票息策略在 2026 年仍具投资价值，短久期信用下沉策略预计成为 主流，转债市场关注科技成长板块，均衡布局分散风险。 Q&A 如何看待近期债市的波动及其背后的原因？ 近期债市出现了明显的波动，主要表现为先走弱后 ...

会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续 扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱 动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移 贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会 发展主要目标将顺利完成。 2025年我国经济将顺利完成经济社会发展主要目标，更加积极有为的宏观政策是重要支撑。 具体来看，财政政策方面，赤字率从2024年的3%显著提升至2025年的4%，新增地方专项债和超长期特 别国债等资金规模进一 ...

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，总结2025年经济工作，分析当前经济形势，部署2026 年经济工作。 会议强调，做好明年经济工作，要实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活 存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动 经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，保持社会和谐稳定，实现"十五五"良好开局。 会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 经济长期向好的基本趋势没有变 会议指出，今年是很不平凡的一年。党中央团结带领全党全国各族人民迎难而上、奋力拼搏，坚定不移贯彻新发展理念、推动高质量发展，统 筹国内国际两个大局，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，经济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。 会议指出，我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战仍然不少，外部环境变化影响加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，重点领域风险隐患较多。这些大多是 发展中、转型中的问题，经过努力是可以解决的，我国经 ...

与此同时，1-10月份，全国政府性基金预算收入3.45万亿元，同比下降2.8%。其中，国有土地使用权出 让收入约2.5万亿元，同比下降7.4%。1-10月份，全国政府性基金支出8.09万亿元，同比增长15.4%。 2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，部分机构预判2026年经济增长目标仍在5%左右。考虑到当前内需恢 复偏弱、房地产市场在深度调整进程中、外部不确定性较大等，2026年要推动释放潜在经济增速，须实 施更加积极的宏观政策，尤其需要更加积极的财政政策加以支持。 支持全方位扩大内需 财政部数据显示，1-10月份，全国一般公共预算收入18.65万亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，税收收入 15.34万亿元，同比增长1.7%。1-10月份，全国一般公共预算支出22.58万亿元，同比增长2%。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道今年前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，全年有望实现5%左右的增 长，背后很重要的支撑在于更加积极的财政政策。 今年更加积极的财政政策内涵丰富，赤字率提高到4%左右，对应赤字规模为5.66万亿元；发行超长期 特别国债1.3万亿元，支持"两重""两新"工作；发行超长期特别国债5000亿元，支持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on promoting stable growth, improving people's livelihoods, and managing risks under the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a projected narrow fiscal deficit rate exceeding 4% and new local special bonds around 4.6 trillion yuan [1][5][43]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Characteristics - The core feature of China's fiscal policy in 2025 is a shift towards a "people-oriented" expenditure structure, which is reflected in the resilience of consumption and the decline in infrastructure investment since July [1][5]. - On the revenue side, there is a weak recovery in the two accounts, with tight constraints still present. The income from individual income tax and securities transactions has improved, while land transfer income has seen a narrowing decline [5][11]. - On the expenditure side, there is a moderate expansion in total fiscal spending, with a structural shift towards social welfare. The central government's financial support is increasing, but the alignment of financial resources and responsibilities still needs optimization [1][11][15]. Group 2: Key Tasks for 2026 - The fiscal policy for 2026 will focus on three key tasks: promoting the synergy between social welfare and consumption incentives, addressing the slowdown in external demand, and resolving funding constraints for infrastructure investment [1][21][22]. - Policies such as trade-in programs and childbirth subsidies are expected to continue and be enhanced, with a focus on service consumption, projecting a retail sales growth rate of around 4.5% [2][25]. Group 3: Infrastructure Investment and Debt Management - For infrastructure investment and debt management, it is essential to clarify the scale and path of debt management funding, with an estimated need for around 3 trillion yuan in special bonds for debt management and clearing overdue accounts in 2026 [3][29]. - The pressure of interest payments after debt replacement is expected to be manageable due to a low-interest environment, which will help offset the visible interest payment pressure [3][37]. - The growth rate of infrastructure investment is projected to be around 3.5% in 2026, influenced by the constraints of debt management and the pursuit of effective investment [3][41]. Group 4: Fiscal Data Projections for 2026 - The growth rate of broad fiscal spending is expected to be around 4.6%, with a narrow fiscal deficit rate still needing to exceed 4%, and new local special bonds projected at approximately 4.6 trillion yuan [5][43][49]. - The general public budget revenue growth rate is estimated at about 1%, while government fund revenue is expected to decline by around 5% [43][46].

Macroeconomic Environment - The US government has ended its longest shutdown, with a temporary funding bill supporting most government departments until January 30, 2026, requiring further negotiations thereafter [3] - Economic data releases in the US are delayed, with upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to show a significant cooling in the job market, potentially leading to another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3][4] - In Europe, industrial production has underperformed expectations, but economic sentiment indicators are improving, with the European Central Bank focusing on economic recovery while expressing concerns about inflation [4] Domestic Economic Conditions - In China, new social financing in October decreased year-on-year, impacted by the real estate cycle and local government debt repayments, leading to suppressed corporate loans [4] - Monetary aggregates M1 and M2 have slowed in growth, with ongoing issues such as slow fiscal fund disbursement and a decline in fixed asset investment growth [4] - High-frequency data indicates a decline in real estate transactions, while agricultural wholesale prices have slightly increased; upstream prices for coking coal and coke have dropped, while non-ferrous metals and gold prices have strengthened [4] Financial Data and Market Trends - October's credit data was weak, aligning with the third-quarter monetary policy report indicating a decrease in indirect financing ratios; a new 500 billion yuan policy financial tool is expected to boost credit demand [8] - The bond market has seen a narrow fluctuation in yields, with a total issuance of 98 bonds amounting to 679.6 billion yuan during the reporting period, indicating an increase in both national and local special bond issuance [9] - The market outlook suggests that while inflation data has shown some improvement, credit data remains weak, and the bond market is currently desensitized to fundamental data [10]