存款搬家进行时 7 轮存款搬家可划分为 3 类:制度改革触发型、收益追逐型、信心修复型。 其中第二轮和第三轮属于制度改革触发型。两轮都有资本市场改革做为背 景, 2004 年首版"国九条"出台, 2006-2007 年则是股权分置改革红利。 经济增长强劲。在此背景下居民存款主要流向了股市,第二轮除股市外还涌 入了楼市。第五轮和第七轮则属于收益追逐型。这两轮遇到经济增速放缓, 存款实际收益率(存款利率减去通胀)下降,居民存款追逐更高收益率的资 产,两轮居民存款都进入理财,第七轮除理财外居民资金还流入了股市楼 市。第一轮、第四轮、第六轮则属于信心修复型。这三轮都发生在经济或市 场信心经历过一段时期低迷之后,由政策托底或新叙事出现,触发居民信心 修复,重新配置资金。第一轮 1999年的 5.19 行情始于 5月 18 日证监会传 达高层关于股市发展意见；第四轮则有"四万亿"的逆周期政策出台；第六 2025 年 8 月 24 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 网: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 詹璐 ☎: 0755-8345-3 ...

"东稳西缓"的宏观超级周 -宏观周报 (7 月 28 日-8 月 3 日) 本周关注:本周国内外密集召开重要会议、公布重要数据,宏观形势整体 ● "东稳西缓",中国政策层面托底内需,美国经济放缓信号明确,贸易摩擦 加剧分化。国内方面,7月政治局会议召开,着重落实落细现有政策,体现 了"立足当下,着眼长远"的战略思维,7月PMI主受季节性因素影响下 滑,"反内卷"重塑供给格局导致价格明显回暖,但基本面需求依然偏弱, 外需出现的边际下滑也值得注意。国债收益率曲线下行,8月 8 日起对新 发债券的利息收入恢复征收增值税,短期由于比价效应可能影响资金配置 意愿。国际方面,新一轮对等关税即将生效,而弱化的经济与劳动数据让美 联储陷入两难。 ● 国内宏观-需求端:(1)消费:居民出行热度平稳,乘用车销量增幅下降。 截至 7 月 31 日, 7 月 地铁客运量增速同比 0.65%、环比 4.61%, 7 月国内 执行航班数平均值为 1.45 万架次,环比 13.1%、同比 2.3%,本周居民出 行热度平稳。据乘联会,7月前27日全国乘用车市场零售 144.4万辆,同 比上涨 7.6%,较上月同期下降 21.0%; (2) ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance of China in the first half of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in public budget revenue while expenditures remain strong, supported by increased government bond issuance and proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and economic recovery [2][4]. Fiscal Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's general public budget revenue was approximately 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, indicating sustained fiscal spending [2]. - The issuance of government bonds, including 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds (up 35.28% year-on-year) and 2.16 trillion yuan in new local special bonds (up 45% year-on-year), has supported key spending areas [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year, focusing on accelerating budget execution and improving fund utilization efficiency [2][9]. - The fiscal deficit is set at 4% of GDP, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special bonds and 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [5][6]. Consumption Support - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in super long-term special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with 162 billion yuan already disbursed in the first half of the year [8][9]. - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% year-on-year, while communication equipment retail sales grew by 24.1%, driven by the consumption upgrade policy [8]. Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the consumption environment and optimize supply through new policies, particularly in major cities with high population bases and growth potential [9][10]. - Suggestions for further measures include providing subsidies to families with two or more children and expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy to service consumption to stimulate economic growth [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising above 1.7% and the 30Y Treasury yield above 1.9%. If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive arrangements on the demand side, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the阶段性 high in March 2025; if the policy to expand domestic demand at the Political Bureau meeting is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery [1][2][3]. Summary by Section 1. Funds Price - The central bank continuously withdrew funds. During the statistical period from July 18 to July 24, 2025, the central bank's net withdrawal of funds in the open market exceeded 50 billion yuan. On the one hand, it was due to the maturity of large - scale previous tax - period injections, and on the other hand, it might be an attempt to cool the equity market indirectly. The funds price rose significantly on July 24, with DR007 quickly rising from below 1.5% to nearly 1.6% [1][8]. 2. Primary Market - During the statistical period, 90 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 940.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 769.1 billion yuan. The scale of new local special bonds continued to increase, but the subscription sentiment for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds remained weak. On July 24, the annual yield of the 30Y special Treasury bond was 1.97%, 0.5 - 1.0bp higher than the secondary - market trading yield [1][10][11]. 3. Secondary Market - During the statistical period, bond yields across all tenors increased, mainly affected by three factors: the strengthening "anti - involution" signal and the continuation of supply - side capacity - reduction policies; the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, which boosted fixed - asset investment from the demand side and triggered expectations of a "grand infrastructure era"; and the sudden tightening of the funds market, combined with increased redemption pressure on bond funds and wealth management products. By the end of the statistical period, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields had reached 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [1][12]. 4. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: In the past 1 - 2 weeks, the fundamentals mainly focused on domestic "anti - involution" and infrastructure, and economic expectations have risen rapidly. The July PMI will initially verify these optimistic expectations. Future information to watch includes changes in the trade environment. A concession from the Trump administration may boost market risk appetite, while increased trade pressure may repair bond - market sentiment [3][17][19]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are drafting a revised draft of the Price Law to regulate market price order. As the July Political Bureau meeting approaches, the "anti - involution" signal may be further strengthened, and more attention should be paid to the meeting's deployment of demand - side policies. If the meeting makes positive arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure. The possibility of incremental monetary policies in July is limited, with a focus on implementing existing policies and flexible adjustments, especially the dynamics of restarting Treasury bond trading [3][17][19]. - **Funds**: The funds market may tighten at the end of the month [3][20]. - **Summary**: If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive demand - side arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the 2025 March high; if the policy to expand domestic demand is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery, and it is difficult to break below the June volatility center without monetary - policy support [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of expanding effective government investment in China through the "implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas," which supports the "new two-step" modernization agenda and combines supply-side structural reform with counter-cyclical regulation to stimulate domestic demand [1][4][37]. Group 1: Effective Investment and Economic Context - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on effective government investment, particularly during periods of economic downturn, to stimulate growth and enhance overall economic performance [1][8][21]. - The concept of "comprehensive performance" is introduced, which transcends traditional cost-benefit analysis by considering long-term benefits and positive externalities associated with government investments [4][12][38]. - The need for "appropriately ahead of schedule" investments is highlighted, suggesting that long-term infrastructure projects should be planned with foresight to maximize their impact [4][12][17]. Group 2: Investment Scenarios and Mechanisms - The article identifies various scenarios for effective government investment, including the construction of sponge cities, which are crucial for disaster prevention and urban resilience [2][26][27]. - It discusses the importance of innovative financing mechanisms, such as special bonds and public-private partnerships (PPP), to support these investments and ensure their sustainability [2][29][35]. - The necessity of a coordinated approach in government investment planning is emphasized, advocating for a unified strategy that aligns national and local investment efforts [25][39]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - The article acknowledges challenges in measuring the effectiveness of government investments, particularly in terms of direct economic returns versus broader social benefits [12][13][15]. - Recommendations include enhancing the management of public debt and optimizing investment strategies to ensure that government spending translates into tangible economic benefits [31][34][36]. - The importance of addressing the needs of the private sector and improving the investment climate for private enterprises is also discussed, highlighting the role of government in fostering a supportive environment for economic growth [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government special bonds has increased in May, while the scale of debt repayment funds has decreased, indicating a shift in funding priorities towards investment expansion and real estate stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Local Government Bond Issuance - In the first five months of the year, the total issuance of local government bonds reached approximately 4.3 trillion yuan, with May alone accounting for 779.4 billion yuan [1]. - The issuance of new special bonds in May was 443.2 billion yuan, marking the highest monthly figure for the year, while refinancing special bonds for replacing existing hidden debts dropped to 30.2 billion yuan, the lowest for the year [1][2]. - The total issuance of new special bonds from January to May was about 1.6 trillion yuan, representing 37% of the annual quota, suggesting room for acceleration in issuance [1][2]. Group 2: Debt Repayment and Special Bonds - In May, the total issuance of debt repayment bonds included 302 billion yuan for refinancing hidden debts and 987 billion yuan in "special" new special bonds for repaying existing debts, totaling 1.289 trillion yuan [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to May, refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts amounted to 1.63 trillion yuan, accounting for 81% of the annual quota of 2 trillion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new special bonds for debt repayment reached 242.4 billion yuan, which is 30% of the annual quota of 800 billion yuan, indicating significant progress in debt resolution [2]. Group 3: Investment Focus of Special Bonds - Since 2025, the primary allocation of funds from newly issued special bonds has been directed towards cold chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (approximately 33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), and affordable housing projects (12%) [3]. - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 463 billion yuan issued in May for land storage, the highest monthly figure for the year [3]. - As of May 20, approximately 23 provinces have publicly announced plans to use special bonds to recover nearly 3,000 parcels of idle land, covering over 1.33 million square meters and totaling over 350 billion yuan [4][5]. Group 4: Special Bonds for Housing - In late May, special bonds were issued in Zhejiang and Sichuan for the acquisition of existing residential properties, aimed at alleviating inventory pressure in economically stable third and fourth-tier cities [5][6]. - Specific projects in Zhejiang included 16.53 million yuan allocated for purchasing existing properties for affordable housing, involving multiple localities [6].

Economic Performance - In April, China's tax revenue growth turned positive for the first time this year, increasing by approximately 1.9% year-on-year, which helped narrow the decline in general public budget revenue to -0.4% for the first four months of the year [1][3] - Despite a 21% decline in exports to the US, exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] Fiscal Policy - The general public budget expenditure for January to April reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7% [6] - The government is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing fiscal policies, including the issuance of government bonds, to support economic stability [9][12] Real Estate Market - The land transfer income showed a significant recovery in April, with a year-on-year decline of only 11.4%, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate market [6][7] - The current real estate market is undergoing structural changes, with core cities experiencing a faster recovery, which may support future demand [7] Trade Relations - The US-China trade negotiations are set to take place within 90 days, which may lead to a significant reduction in tariffs, potentially stabilizing economic growth in the short term [8][9] - The ongoing tariff situation remains a concern, with tariffs on Chinese goods still exceeding 40%, necessitating careful monitoring of trade policies [10] Future Outlook - The economic growth for the second quarter is projected to be close to 5%, with the potential for fiscal stimulus measures to be adjusted based on trade negotiations [9][12] - The government is focusing on maintaining social stability and expanding domestic demand through targeted fiscal measures [10][12]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter, China's economy achieved a stable start and good performance under more proactive macro policies [1] - The average daily transaction volume in the interbank market decreased, with a total transaction volume of 452 trillion yuan, down 24% quarter-on-quarter and 19% year-on-year [1] Monetary Policy and Market Operations - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing more proactive macro policies, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates to maintain liquidity [1][2] - The net liquidity injection from monetary policy operations in the first quarter was 22,618 billion yuan, with significant reverse repo operations [2] Repo Rates and Market Dynamics - Major repo rates initially increased and then decreased, with the overnight repo rate (DR001) and the overnight pledged repo rate (R001) rising by 34 and 37 basis points respectively to 1.77% and 1.95% [3] - The first quarter saw fluctuations in funding rates due to seasonal factors and liquidity conditions, with DR007 reaching a high of 2.34% [3] Government Bond Issuance and Market Activity - A total of 12.3 trillion yuan in bonds were issued in the first quarter, a 3.5% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 24% increase year-on-year [4] - The issuance of ordinary government bonds was notably high, with the issuance pace reaching about 30% of the annual target, the highest level for the same period in recent years [4][5] Bond Market Performance - Bond yields increased across various maturities, with the 1-year and 10-year government bond yields rising by 45 and 11 basis points respectively [5] - The yield curve for 10-year government bonds showed a fluctuation range of approximately 30 basis points [5] RMB Derivatives Market - The RMB derivatives market saw significant growth, with daily trading volume of interest rate swaps increasing by 33.4% in the first quarter [6] - The average nominal principal amount for RMB interest rate swaps reached 11.1 trillion yuan, with a daily average of 1,876.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.2% increase [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of ultra-long bonds in 2025 is estimated. The supply pressure is expected to be high in February, August - September, with a monthly issuance scale possibly exceeding 70 billion yuan. The supply of ultra-long bonds will affect the term spread of ultra-long bonds and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds. The term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly, and the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow [7][20][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Ultra-long Bond Supply Estimation - Ultra-long general treasury bonds have a small supply and are expected to be issued concentratedly from January - April and November - December. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 30-year and 50-year general treasury bonds is 30 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan respectively [10] - Ultra-long special treasury bonds are expected to have high supply pressure in May, August - September. The total annual issuance is 1.3 trillion yuan. The assumed issuance scale of subsequent single 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year special treasury bonds is 5 - 6 billion yuan, 6 - 7 billion yuan, and 4 - 4.5 billion yuan respectively [12] - The proportion of ultra-long bonds in local special bonds has increased, and the issuance is expected to surge from August - September. The assumed proportion of ultra-long bonds remains at 69.2%. The monthly issuance scale may exceed 50 billion yuan [15] - Ultra-long local refinancing bonds are expected to be issued by June, with controllable supply pressure. The monthly issuance scale from May - June is estimated to be 14.98 billion yuan [17] 2. Impact on the Bond Market - As the issuance of ultra-long bonds increases, the term spread of ultra-long bonds may widen slightly. The impact of ultra-long bond supply on the term spread is asymmetric. When issuance is high, the term spread is supported but rarely widens significantly; when issuance is low, the term spread is significantly compressed [20] - The spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds is expected to narrow. When the supply of ultra-long treasury bonds is relatively large, the spread between ultra-long local bonds and treasury bonds tends to narrow, and vice versa [21]