Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of local government bonds in August reached 977.6 billion yuan, maintaining strong momentum despite a decline compared to June and July, with special bonds accounting for about half of the total issuance [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance and Utilization - From January to August, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 3.26 trillion yuan, accounting for 74% of the annual quota of 4.4 trillion yuan, with a notable acceleration in issuance since May [2][3] - In August, 44% of the newly issued special bonds were allocated for debt repayment, totaling 212.9 billion yuan, while the cumulative amount for debt repayment from January to August was 968 billion yuan, representing 30% of the total new special bonds issued [2] - The funds from new special bonds are primarily directed towards project construction, including municipal infrastructure, transportation, and social projects, with significant allocations for municipal and industrial park infrastructure [2][5] Group 2: Land Reserve Bonds - The issuance of land reserve special bonds has increased, with a total of 3.24 trillion yuan issued by ten provinces from January to August, with Shanghai leading at 568 billion yuan [3] - Local governments are utilizing special bonds to recover idle land, which helps alleviate financial pressure on developers and promotes stability in the real estate market [3] Group 3: Acquisition of Existing Properties - Some provinces are initiating projects to acquire existing residential properties, with 32 projects identified across four provinces, primarily funded by special bonds [4][5] - The total funding for "stabilizing the housing market" through special bonds reached approximately 595 billion yuan from January to August, making it the second-largest category of funding after municipal infrastructure [5] Group 4: Support for Innovation and Emerging Industries - A significant trend in August was the issuance of special bonds to support government investment funds aimed at enhancing local technological innovation and strategic emerging industries [6][7] - Various provinces, including Beijing and Shanghai, have allocated special bonds to government investment funds, indicating a shift in investment focus from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and emerging sectors [7][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions are exploring the use of special-purpose bonds to support government investment funds, with a total scale of 36 billion yuan this year, which helps improve the efficiency of special-purpose bond funds and promote the high - quality development of government investment funds [6][7]. - Beijing has repaid part of its special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule for the third time, which helps save interest expenses and smooth the pressure of debt maturity [6][11]. - This week, 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, and the issuance of "25 Nanjing Tiejian SCP002" was cancelled [6][13]. - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased this week, with rising issuance interest rates and widening spreads. The issuance of new special - purpose bonds accelerated, and the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds exceeded 900 billion yuan. The issuance of urban investment bonds decreased, and the net financing scale turned negative [6][16]. - In the trading of local government bonds and urban investment bonds, the trading scale of local government bonds decreased, and the trading scale of urban investment bonds increased. Most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds increased [28][29]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 News Review - **Special - purpose bonds support government investment funds**: Shanghai, Jiangsu and other regions are exploring the use of special - purpose bonds for government investment funds. The current disclosed scale has reached 36 billion yuan. Policy space has opened up, and government investment funds are not on the "negative list" [6][7][8]. - **Beijing repays special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule**: On August 20, Beijing repaid 145 million yuan of special - purpose bonds ahead of schedule, which is the third time. It helps save interest expenses and smooth the pressure of debt maturity [11]. - **18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest**: This week, 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid the principal and interest of 20 bonds, with a total scale of 4.789 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous period [13]. - **Cancellation of the issuance of "25 Nanjing Tiejian SCP002"**: The planned issuance scale was 700 million yuan. As of August 22, 84 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 51.076 billion yuan [14][15]. 3.2 Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Local government bonds**: This week, 110 local government bonds were issued, with a scale increase of 303.74% to 369.15 billion yuan, and the net financing turned positive. The issuance of new special - purpose bonds accelerated. As of August 22, new special - purpose bonds reached 3.076157 trillion yuan, completing 69.91% of the annual quota. The weighted average issuance interest rate rose by 18.20BP to 2.13%, and the spread widened by 2.69BP to 20.23BP [16]. - **Urban investment bonds**: 167 urban investment bonds were issued this week, with a scale decrease of 13.80% to 105.794 billion yuan, and the net financing turned negative. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.34%, rising by 16.16BP, and the spread was 80.64BP, widening by 11.61BP. Seven overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 5.246 billion yuan [20][21]. 3.3 Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - **Fund situation**: The central bank conducted 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market this week, with a net investment of 1.3652 trillion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly rose [28]. - **Credit rating adjustment**: On August 1, Dagong International upgraded the credit rating of Anhui Chuzhou Urban Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA [28]. - **Credit events and regulatory penalties**: No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week [28]. - **Local government bonds**: The spot trading scale of local government bonds was 34.4287 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.51%. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the maturity yields of other maturities increased [28]. - **Urban investment bonds**: The trading scale of urban investment bonds was 28.955 billion yuan, an increase of 19.38%. Most of the maturity yields increased, with an average increase of 8.01BP. The spreads of 1 - year and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds widened, and the spread of 3 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed. There were 15 abnormal transactions of 14 bonds of 13 urban investment entities [29]. 3.4 List of Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises This week, 86 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, etc., including changes in controlling shareholders and actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, cumulative new borrowings, name changes, external guarantees, and changes in business scope [33].

Group 1: Deposit Migration Identification - Deposit migration is identified when the growth rate of resident deposits declines for more than three consecutive months and is lower than the M2 growth rate[1] - Historical data shows that since 1996, there have been seven rounds of deposit migration in China[1] Group 2: Types of Deposit Migration - The seven rounds of deposit migration can be categorized into three types: institutional reform-triggered, yield-chasing, and confidence-restoration[2] - The second and third rounds were driven by institutional reforms, with significant capital market reforms occurring during these periods[2] Group 3: Economic Context and Asset Performance - During institutional reform-triggered periods, both stock and real estate markets experienced significant increases, while interest rates and long-term bond yields rose sharply[4] - In yield-chasing periods, stock market gains were limited, but the real estate market saw notable increases, with long-term bond yields rising moderately[4] Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent financial data indicates a significant increase in non-bank deposits year-on-year, while resident deposits have decreased sharply[3] - The current macroeconomic policy shift aims to stabilize economic downturn risks, which may lead to a confidence restoration type of deposit migration[4]

Group 1 - The issuance of secondary capital bonds by commercial banks has significantly increased, with a total of 554.3 billion yuan issued as of September 7, representing a 98.8% increase compared to the same period last year [1][2] - Major banks like Agricultural Bank, Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank have collectively issued 250 billion yuan in secondary capital bonds this year, indicating that large commercial banks remain the primary issuers [2][3] - Smaller banks are increasingly participating in bond issuance to supplement their capital, with many issuing bonds in smaller amounts [2][3] Group 2 - The financing channels for small and medium-sized banks have expanded, with the introduction of special bonds as a new tool for capital supplementation, supported by government policies [3][4] - A notable example includes the issuance of 30 billion yuan in special bonds by Gansu Province to support 11 small financial institutions, marking an innovative approach to capital injection [3][4] - In the first half of the year, four provinces have secured a total of 103 billion yuan in special bond quotas for small banks, with plans to reach a total of 320 billion yuan by the end of the year [3][4] Group 3 - The asset quality of small and medium-sized banks has remained stable despite economic pressures, with a slight decrease in non-performing loan ratios [5] - However, there are ongoing concerns regarding the future asset quality of these banks, with estimates suggesting a net issuance demand of approximately 2.9 trillion yuan for capital tools from 2022 to 2024 [6] - Recommendations have been made to further expand the capital-raising channels for small banks, particularly through the issuance of secondary capital bonds [6]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of July 31, the retail sales of passenger cars in China reached 1.444 million units in July, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, but a month-on-month decrease of 21.0%[2] - The average number of domestic flights in July was 14,500, a month-on-month increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year increase of 2.3%[2] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 1,819.3 in July, a month-on-month increase of 8.6% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The manufacturing PMI for July fell to 50.5%, down from 51% in June, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[3] - The new orders index dropped to 49.4%, down from 50.2%, while the new export orders index fell to 47.1% from 47.7%[3] - The construction PMI decreased by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6% in July, reflecting a slowdown in construction activity[3] Price Performance - As of August 1, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% week-on-week, while the futures price of live pigs increased by 0.50%[4] - The average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables rose by 0.64%, while the average price of 6 monitored fruits fell by 0.06%[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a strong increase in crude oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude rising by 2.78% and 3.48% respectively[4] Fiscal and Investment - This week, the issuance of local special bonds accelerated, with an additional 350 billion yuan in special government bonds and 2.53 trillion yuan in special bonds issued, marking a 63.3% progress rate[7] - The issuance of local general bonds reached a progress rate of 63.9%[7] Monetary and Liquidity - The yield curve for government bonds is trending downward, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.7059%, down 3 basis points from the previous week[9] - The central bank's reverse repurchase operation resulted in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan this week[9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of "system integration" in boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, highlighting the interconnectedness of consumption, investment, and overall economic operation [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The current macroeconomic policy is characterized by proactive fiscal measures and moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on "effective investment" to expand domestic demand [4][7]. - Government investment should target major strategic implementations and key areas of security capability, which will enhance economic vitality and create jobs [4][6]. - There is a misconception that government investment opportunities are saturated; however, numerous effective investment projects are available, particularly in urban infrastructure and disaster prevention [6][7]. Group 2: Employment and Economic Growth - Effective investment projects initiated by the government can immediately create job opportunities and stimulate market demand, akin to the "New Deal" approach [7][11]. - Long-term benefits of effective investment include structural optimization and enhanced economic resilience, contributing to national security and social stability [7][8]. Group 3: Comprehensive Performance and Externalities - The effectiveness of government investment should be evaluated beyond traditional cost-benefit analysis, considering the broader positive externalities and comprehensive performance of projects [8][9]. - Examples such as the Qinghai-Tibet Railway illustrate that some projects may not yield immediate financial returns but provide significant long-term national benefits [8][9]. Group 4: Systematic Approach to Government Investment - Government investment should be viewed as a systematic project, requiring a combination of policy direction, project planning, funding allocation, and quality management [11]. - Successful government investment involves a series of interconnected processes, including feasibility studies and post-completion maintenance, to ensure comprehensive effectiveness [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fiscal performance of China in the first half of 2025, highlighting a slight decline in public budget revenue while expenditures remain strong, supported by increased government bond issuance and proactive fiscal policies aimed at boosting consumption and economic recovery [2][4]. Fiscal Performance - In the first half of 2025, China's general public budget revenue was approximately 11.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%, with the decline narrowing by 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [2]. - Public budget expenditure reached 14.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, indicating sustained fiscal spending [2]. - The issuance of government bonds, including 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds (up 35.28% year-on-year) and 2.16 trillion yuan in new local special bonds (up 45% year-on-year), has supported key spending areas [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Measures - The Ministry of Finance plans to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year, focusing on accelerating budget execution and improving fund utilization efficiency [2][9]. - The fiscal deficit is set at 4% of GDP, corresponding to a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special bonds and 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [5][6]. Consumption Support - The central government has allocated 300 billion yuan in super long-term special bonds to support the consumption upgrade policy, with 162 billion yuan already disbursed in the first half of the year [8][9]. - The retail sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 30.7% year-on-year, while communication equipment retail sales grew by 24.1%, driven by the consumption upgrade policy [8]. Future Outlook - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the consumption environment and optimize supply through new policies, particularly in major cities with high population bases and growth potential [9][10]. - Suggestions for further measures include providing subsidies to families with two or more children and expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy to service consumption to stimulate economic growth [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is under pressure, with the 10Y Treasury yield rising above 1.7% and the 30Y Treasury yield above 1.9%. If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive arrangements on the demand side, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the阶段性 high in March 2025; if the policy to expand domestic demand at the Political Bureau meeting is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery [1][2][3]. Summary by Section 1. Funds Price - The central bank continuously withdrew funds. During the statistical period from July 18 to July 24, 2025, the central bank's net withdrawal of funds in the open market exceeded 50 billion yuan. On the one hand, it was due to the maturity of large - scale previous tax - period injections, and on the other hand, it might be an attempt to cool the equity market indirectly. The funds price rose significantly on July 24, with DR007 quickly rising from below 1.5% to nearly 1.6% [1][8]. 2. Primary Market - During the statistical period, 90 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance volume of 940.9 billion yuan and a net financing of 769.1 billion yuan. The scale of new local special bonds continued to increase, but the subscription sentiment for ultra - long - term Treasury bonds remained weak. On July 24, the annual yield of the 30Y special Treasury bond was 1.97%, 0.5 - 1.0bp higher than the secondary - market trading yield [1][10][11]. 3. Secondary Market - During the statistical period, bond yields across all tenors increased, mainly affected by three factors: the strengthening "anti - involution" signal and the continuation of supply - side capacity - reduction policies; the start of the hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River, which boosted fixed - asset investment from the demand side and triggered expectations of a "grand infrastructure era"; and the sudden tightening of the funds market, combined with increased redemption pressure on bond funds and wealth management products. By the end of the statistical period, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields had reached 1.7% and 1.9% respectively [1][12]. 4. Market Outlook - **Fundamentals**: In the past 1 - 2 weeks, the fundamentals mainly focused on domestic "anti - involution" and infrastructure, and economic expectations have risen rapidly. The July PMI will initially verify these optimistic expectations. Future information to watch includes changes in the trade environment. A concession from the Trump administration may boost market risk appetite, while increased trade pressure may repair bond - market sentiment [3][17][19]. - **Policy**: At the central level, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are drafting a revised draft of the Price Law to regulate market price order. As the July Political Bureau meeting approaches, the "anti - involution" signal may be further strengthened, and more attention should be paid to the meeting's deployment of demand - side policies. If the meeting makes positive arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure. The possibility of incremental monetary policies in July is limited, with a focus on implementing existing policies and flexible adjustments, especially the dynamics of restarting Treasury bond trading [3][17][19]. - **Funds**: The funds market may tighten at the end of the month [3][20]. - **Summary**: If the Political Bureau meeting makes positive demand - side arrangements, the bond market may continue to face pressure, and the interest rate may reach the 2025 March high; if the policy to expand domestic demand is limited, the interest rate may enter a volatile pattern after a phased recovery, and it is difficult to break below the June volatility center without monetary - policy support [3][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of expanding effective government investment in China through the "implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas," which supports the "new two-step" modernization agenda and combines supply-side structural reform with counter-cyclical regulation to stimulate domestic demand [1][4][37]. Group 1: Effective Investment and Economic Context - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on effective government investment, particularly during periods of economic downturn, to stimulate growth and enhance overall economic performance [1][8][21]. - The concept of "comprehensive performance" is introduced, which transcends traditional cost-benefit analysis by considering long-term benefits and positive externalities associated with government investments [4][12][38]. - The need for "appropriately ahead of schedule" investments is highlighted, suggesting that long-term infrastructure projects should be planned with foresight to maximize their impact [4][12][17]. Group 2: Investment Scenarios and Mechanisms - The article identifies various scenarios for effective government investment, including the construction of sponge cities, which are crucial for disaster prevention and urban resilience [2][26][27]. - It discusses the importance of innovative financing mechanisms, such as special bonds and public-private partnerships (PPP), to support these investments and ensure their sustainability [2][29][35]. - The necessity of a coordinated approach in government investment planning is emphasized, advocating for a unified strategy that aligns national and local investment efforts [25][39]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - The article acknowledges challenges in measuring the effectiveness of government investments, particularly in terms of direct economic returns versus broader social benefits [12][13][15]. - Recommendations include enhancing the management of public debt and optimizing investment strategies to ensure that government spending translates into tangible economic benefits [31][34][36]. - The importance of addressing the needs of the private sector and improving the investment climate for private enterprises is also discussed, highlighting the role of government in fostering a supportive environment for economic growth [21][22].