Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic significance of expanding effective government investment in China through the "implementation of major national strategies and security capacity building in key areas," which supports the "new two-step" modernization agenda and combines supply-side structural reform with counter-cyclical regulation to stimulate domestic demand [1][4][37]. Group 1: Effective Investment and Economic Context - The current economic environment necessitates a focus on effective government investment, particularly during periods of economic downturn, to stimulate growth and enhance overall economic performance [1][8][21]. - The concept of "comprehensive performance" is introduced, which transcends traditional cost-benefit analysis by considering long-term benefits and positive externalities associated with government investments [4][12][38]. - The need for "appropriately ahead of schedule" investments is highlighted, suggesting that long-term infrastructure projects should be planned with foresight to maximize their impact [4][12][17]. Group 2: Investment Scenarios and Mechanisms - The article identifies various scenarios for effective government investment, including the construction of sponge cities, which are crucial for disaster prevention and urban resilience [2][26][27]. - It discusses the importance of innovative financing mechanisms, such as special bonds and public-private partnerships (PPP), to support these investments and ensure their sustainability [2][29][35]. - The necessity of a coordinated approach in government investment planning is emphasized, advocating for a unified strategy that aligns national and local investment efforts [25][39]. Group 3: Challenges and Recommendations - The article acknowledges challenges in measuring the effectiveness of government investments, particularly in terms of direct economic returns versus broader social benefits [12][13][15]. - Recommendations include enhancing the management of public debt and optimizing investment strategies to ensure that government spending translates into tangible economic benefits [31][34][36]. - The importance of addressing the needs of the private sector and improving the investment climate for private enterprises is also discussed, highlighting the role of government in fostering a supportive environment for economic growth [21][22].

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭北京报道不同于前几个月，5月新增地方专项债发行规模上升，化债资金规 模下降。 从月度累计情况来看，1-5月份用于置换存量隐性债务的再融资专项债共计发行1.63万亿元，占全年2万 亿元额度的81%；累计用于化解存量债务的新增专项债规模为2424亿元，占全年8000亿元额度的30% ——综合来看，年度化债资金发行进度已达67%，年内化债资金的大头已经陆续落地。 从新增地方债券发行进度来看，1-5月份地方新增一般债券发行规模约3510亿元，占全年8000亿元额度 的44%；1-5月份地方新增专项债发行规模约1.63万亿元，占全年4.4万亿元额度的37%。由此可见，地方 专项债仍有进一步提速的空间，目前地方专项债发行进度仍稍慢于时间进度。 据各省份公开发债数据，1-5月份地方政府债券发行规模约4.3万亿元，其中5月份发行7794亿元。从资 金用途来看，5月地方新增专项债发行规模4432亿元，为今年以来月度最高，地方用于扩投资的资金增 多；5月用于置换存量隐性债务的再融资专项债发行规模则缩减至302亿元，为今年以来月度最低。 5月当月地方债发行规模不算多，因为当月还有超长期特别国债、给国有商业 ...

关税战下，4月份经济财政数据好于预期，随着中美双方90天内大幅降低关税，短期财政政策加码概率 大幅下降 美国4月初对中国加征畸高关税一度引起市场担忧，但最终4月份的财政、经济数据显示，中国经济顶住 压力稳定增长。 财政部数据显示，4月份全国税收收入增速首次实现年内由负转正，同比增长约1.9%。这也带动今年前 4个月全国一般公共预算收入降幅缩窄至-0.4%。 多位专家告诉第一财经，关税战预期下"抢补货""抢出口""转出口"等对冲对美出口下滑，而"两重""两 新"政策和积极财政政策靠前发力也对冲经济下行压力。随着中美双方90天内大幅下调关税，上半年经 济预计保持稳定增长，短期内财政政策主要是加快落实好既有政策举措，比如加快发行政府债券等，并 适时储备增量政策根据后续形势择机而出，推动经济运行在合理区间。 反差背后 为何4月关税战升级下，税收收入增速逆势增长？ 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒对第一财经分析，4月财政经济数据总体上呈现出稳定和韧性的特征，关 税战的冲击有宏观时滞，工业生产和出口增速好于市场预期，税收好于预期，主要是源于"转出口"部分 对冲了对美出口的下滑，4月中国对美出口下降21%，但对东盟出口增长20. ...

蓝佛安 财政是国家治理的基础和重要支柱。新时代以来，面对错综复杂的国内外发展环境，习近平总书记高度重 视财政工作，为财政工作定调指向，亲自决策、亲自部署一系列重大财政政策，有力促进了经济稳定运 行，维护了社会大局稳定。新时代我国财政政策的设计与实践，是习近平经济思想在财政领域的生动体 现。在财政政策实践中，我们深刻体会到，坚持以习近平经济思想为指引，坚决贯彻落实好党中央决策部 署，我国经济发展就没有迈不过去的坎、闯不过去的关，必须加力实施更加积极的财政政策，推动中国经 济巨轮破浪前行。 一、财政等一揽子增量政策成效显著 更加积极财政政策的科学设计与成功实践 2024年，我国发展历程很不平凡，特别是二季度、三季度一度面临经济下行压力较大的局面。在紧要关 头，习近平总书记主持召开中央政治局会议，果断部署一揽子增量政策，推动经济明显回升，社会信心有 效提振，既促进了全年目标实现，也为今年发展奠定了良好基础。财政部门认真贯彻落实党中央决策部 署，在加力实施存量政策的同时，出台了一批有针对性的增量政策，为有效应对风险挑战、顺利完成全年 经济社会发展主要目标任务提供了有力支撑。 一次性增加6万亿元地方专项债务限额置换存量 ...

一季度，我国经济在更加积极有为的宏观政策协同发力下实现平稳起步、良好开局。 从银行间本币市场运行情况来看，中国外汇交易中心(以下简称"交易中心")最新发布的数据显示，一季 度，货币市场日均成交及余额减少，央行完善政策工具进一步畅通利率传导机制，资金面保持平稳，回 购利率先上后下；政府债发行及交易活跃，政策落地预期调整带动市场波动，债券收益率整体大幅上 行，曲线走平；利率互换曲线整体上行，人民币衍生品成交环比增加。从成交量看，一季度银行间市场 成交452万亿元，环比减少24%，同比减少19%。 4月28日，中国人民银行副行长邹澜国在新办新闻发布会上表示，中国人民银行将按照中央政治局会议 精神，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足适度宽松的货币政策，根据国内外经济形势和金融 市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕。 回购利率先上后下 今年以来，中国人民银行持续完善市场化利率形成传导机制，用好多种工具投放流动性。交易中心数据 显示，一季度，逆回购操作净投放量30438亿元(含买断式逆回购24000亿元)，中期借贷便利(MLF)净回 笼量9320亿元，国库现金定存净投放1500亿元，全季货币政策操作整体净投放 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].

研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 超长债供给压力几何？ 固定收益点评 相关报告 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-03-30 2025 年 04 月 20 日 固定收益点评 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 《固定收益点评：债市如何交易关税冲击？*靳毅》 ——2025-04-14 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 2025 年超长债供给测算：①超长期一般国债供给量小，预计集中在 1-4 月、11-12 月发行；②超长期特别国债预计在 5 月、8-9 月供给 压力较大；③地方专项债中超长债占比上升，预计 8-9 月发行放量； ④超长地方再融资债预计 6 月发行完毕，供给压力可控。 综合来看，预计 2025 年超长债 2 月、8-9 月供给压力较大，单月发 行规模或超 7000 亿元。其中 1-4 月超长债供给主要由地方再融资债 和专项债贡献，而 5-10 ...