Core Viewpoint - The US economy shows resilience with a projected GDP growth rate of 3.0% for Q2 2025, but underlying weaknesses in domestic demand are evident, with private sector final sales growth slowing to 1.2%, the lowest in two years [1][3][6] Economic Growth Analysis - The actual GDP for Q2 2025 rebounded to an annualized rate of 3.0%, influenced significantly by fluctuations in imports and inventory [2][6] - The contribution of private consumption to GDP remains strong, but fixed asset investments, particularly in real estate and construction, have seen consecutive quarters of negative growth [1][3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth dropped sharply from 7.6% in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, contributing only 0.08 percentage points to GDP [3] - High interest rates have notably suppressed construction and residential investments, while equipment investment growth has also slowed [3][6] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending rebounded in Q2 but remains weaker compared to 2024, with contributions to GDP fluctuating [3][6] - Durable goods consumption showed recovery, while non-durable goods consumption significantly declined [3] Government Spending - Government spending increased by 0.4% in Q2, contributing minimally to GDP growth, primarily driven by a rise in defense spending [4][6] Future Economic Outlook - The US economy is expected to face constraints in the second half of the year due to tight monetary policy and potential increases in tariffs, which could further suppress growth and raise inflation [4][6] - The "Great Beautiful Act" introduced by Trump may provide some support to economic growth, potentially increasing GDP by 0.5% by 2026 [5][6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation is anticipated to rise structurally in the second half of 2025, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][6] - The potential for increased tariffs poses additional risks to both consumer purchasing power and corporate profits, which may further inhibit investment and spending [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has significantly reduced expectations for a rate cut in September, with the likelihood dropping from over 65% to around 40% following Chairman Powell's comments [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased risks to employment goals [7]. - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, with the core CPI increasing by 2.9%, slightly below expectations [8]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, supporting the view that the labor market is gradually cooling [9]. Group 3: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Fed's future monetary policy remains uncertain, heavily reliant on upcoming employment and inflation data [11]. - Powell highlighted the importance of timing in policy actions, warning against acting too late or too early in response to inflation [12]. - Analysts predict that the Fed may delay rate cuts longer than the market expects, with potential cuts occurring later in the year [12][13]. Group 4: Political and Economic Influences - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with concerns about political interference potentially impacting monetary policy decisions [14]. - Historical precedents suggest that a lack of independence can lead to detrimental economic outcomes, emphasizing the need for the Fed to maintain its autonomy [14].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts suggest that the current strength of the US dollar is likely a temporary adjustment and does not indicate a reversal of its recent weakening trend [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Investors may have closed short positions on the dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting, where interest rates were maintained [1] - The expectation is that once the Federal Reserve signals a potential restart of interest rate cuts in the coming months, the dollar's weakening trend will re-emerge [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - UBS anticipates that US economic growth will further slow down in the second half of the year compared to the first half [1] - The firm projects that the euro will rise to 1.20 against the dollar later this year [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decisions - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%[3] - Two Federal Reserve governors voted against the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut[6] - The assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace"[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, with half of the new jobs contributed by the government, indicating a slowdown in private sector job growth[7] - The labor force participation rate has declined, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market[11] - Consumer spending may have started to decline, with Q2 private domestic final purchases showing the lowest annualized growth rate since Q1 2023[13] Group 3: Inflation and Market Reactions - Inflation showed signs of rebounding in June, driven by rising energy and core commodity prices, while core services inflation remained stable[11] - Following the press conference, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped from over 60% to below 50%[14] - The uncertainty surrounding economic prospects remains high, with short-term inflation risks persisting due to tariff policies[14] Group 4: Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential unexpected increases in U.S. inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and greater-than-expected economic downturns[15] - The overall economic outlook suggests continued slowing growth in the U.S. economy, influenced by policy and economic uncertainties[13]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of tariff increases on U.S. inflation is expected to peak around the end of the year, as tariffs typically take several months to fully affect consumer prices [1] Economic Outlook - The core inflation rate in the U.S. is projected to be around 3.0% this year, which will compress real income and hinder economic growth [1] - The company anticipates that U.S. economic growth will further slow down but is expected to avoid recession, with a projected real GDP growth rate of approximately 1.0% for this year [1] - As tariff pressures ease, a rebound in growth to about 1.8% is expected next year [1]

Economic Growth and Consumer Spending - The U.S. GDP for Q2 grew at an annualized rate of 3%, reversing the -0.5% contraction in Q1 and exceeding market expectations of 2.6% [2][3] - Key factors for the strong growth included a significant decline in imports and a faster increase in consumer spending, with net exports contributing 5 percentage points to GDP [3] - Consumer spending grew by 1.4%, slightly below the expected 1.5%, marking the slowest growth in two consecutive quarters [3] Inflation and Price Indices - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for Q2 showed an annualized quarter-on-quarter initial value of 2.5%, down from 3.5% but above the expected 2.3%, indicating a rebound in inflation [2][3] - The overall PCE price increased by 2.5% over the past 12 months, with core PCE rising by 2.7%, reflecting changes in price composition [5] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for July indicated an increase of 104,000 jobs, surpassing the expectation of 76,000, although still below last year's average levels [3][5] - The labor market remains cautious due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, leading to a generally weak demand for labor [3] Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that it is too early to predict a rate cut in September [4][5] - Powell noted that the current interest rate level is appropriate given the uncertainties surrounding tariffs and inflation [5] Currency and Market Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index surged over 1% on July 31, approaching the 100 mark, while U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board [2][6] - The dollar's decline earlier in the year was attributed to weak economic data and concerns over a potential recession, but recent strong economic indicators have alleviated these fears [6][7] - The resolution of trade tensions and established tariff rates among developed economies have contributed to a more stable outlook for the dollar [6][7]

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25-4.5% after the July FOMC meeting, indicating a low probability of rate cuts in September[2] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, significantly higher than Q1's -0.5% and above the 2024 forecast of 2.8%[6] - A 30% decline in imports contributed positively to GDP growth, while private investment negatively impacted GDP by 3.1% in Q2[6] Employment and Inflation - The labor market remains solid, with an average monthly job addition of 150,000 and an unemployment rate steady at 4.1%[9] - Inflation is still above the 2% target, with Powell noting that service sector inflation is easing but tariffs are pushing up prices on certain goods[12][13] Monetary Policy Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is low, with Powell emphasizing the need for more economic data to assess the impact of tariffs[14] - The Fed's dual mandate focuses on price stability and maximum employment, rather than economic growth alone[14] - There were dissenting votes from two Fed officials advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first time since 2020 that more than one official opposed Powell[14] Future Projections - The Fed may delay rate cuts until Q4, as it requires additional economic data to evaluate the effects of recent tariff negotiations[15] - If trade agreements are reached by August, the earliest potential rate cut could occur in October[15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to maintain interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate cut, despite pressure from President Trump for a reduction [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee had 12 voting members, with 9 supporting the decision to keep rates unchanged, while 2 members voted for a 25 basis point cut [4]. - This marks a rare occurrence where both the President and a Federal Reserve member publicly advocate for a rate cut, reflecting the pressure from Trump on Fed Chairman Powell [5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent economic indicators show a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, with the unemployment rate remaining low and inflation still high, indicating uncertainty in the economic outlook [5][6]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at an annualized rate of 3%, significantly higher than the first quarter's -0.5%, but this growth was primarily due to a reduction in imports rather than a robust economic recovery [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Powell indicated that the decision for the September meeting will depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, suggesting that no immediate rate cut is guaranteed [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there may be short-term inflation risks, the overall economic growth is expected to continue slowing, with potential rate cuts later in the year [10][11].

对于本次美联储会议上出现的罕见分歧——两名理事沃勒和鲍曼投下反对票，要求立即降息25个基点，鲍威尔并未回避。他表示，这是一次"很 好的会议"，两位反对者清晰地阐述了他们的立场，并称这种坦诚的交流是积极的。 面对近期美国政府加征关税可能带来的通胀压力，鲍威尔的态度审慎。他指出，部分商品价格已反映出关税影响，但关税对整体通胀的影响仍有 待观察，目前估计核心通胀中有30%至40%来自关税。他警告称，关税的影响可能是"短暂的"，但也可能引发"更持久的"通胀变化，美联储的职 责是确保长期通胀预期保持稳定。（文馨） 鲍威尔在发布会上强调："我们尚未就9月做出任何决定。我们不会提前决定。我们将在做出决策时，综合考虑这些信息以及我们获得的其他所有 信息。"他指出，从现在到9月会议之间，决策者将获得两轮完整的就业和通胀数据，这些将是评估经济状况和风险平衡的关键。 【环球网财经综合报道】当地时间7月30日，美联储主席鲍威尔在利率会议后的新闻发布会上，为备受关注的9月政策会议定下了"观望"的基调。 他明确表示，决策者尚未就9月是否降息做出任何决定，未来货币政策将完全取决于未来几个月的经济数据。鲍威尔也回应了近期关税政策对通 胀的潜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a target range of 4.25%-4.5%, with two members voting against this decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut, marking the first dissent since 1993 [1] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve's assessment of economic conditions was downgraded to "growth of economic activity moderated" from "expand at a solid pace," indicating a slowdown in economic growth [6] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with June's non-farm payrolls increasing slightly to 147,000, but half of this increase was due to government jobs, while private sector employment declined [2][5] - The labor force participation rate is decreasing, and wage growth is slowing, suggesting a weakening labor market [2][5] Inflation Trends - Inflation is experiencing short-term rebound risks, with June inflation rising primarily due to increases in energy and core goods, while core services inflation remains stable [2][5] - The Federal Reserve maintains that inflation is still somewhat elevated, and the process of returning to target levels is halfway complete [4] - Tariff costs are gradually being passed on to consumers, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to be temporary [4][5] Market Reactions - Following the Federal Reserve's announcement, the market's expectation for a rate cut in September significantly decreased from over 60% to below 50% [7] - The stock market experienced a decline, while bond yields rose and the dollar index increased, reflecting market uncertainty regarding inflation and economic conditions [7]