即将过去的2025年，世界经济面对美国加征关税冲击、地缘冲突持续与金融波动加剧等多重压力， 仍展现出坚韧底色，增长有望超过预期。然而，全球经济前景依然脆弱，贸易保护主义、人工智能(AI) 泡沫与债务压力如重重暗礁，随时可能阻滞复苏进程。展望2026年，世界经济需要在持续的不确定性中 寻找新平衡。 2025年，不同经济体增长呈现显著分化态势。国际货币基金组织(IMF)、世界银行、经济合作与发 展组织在各自的研究报告中不约而同地有所提及。 IMF在10月的《世界经济展望报告》中将全年经济增长预期上调至3.2%，但预计2025年美国经济增 速仅为2.0%，2026年可能进一步下滑至1.7%。欧元区与日本则面临外部需求疲软、结构改革停滞等长 期挑战，2025年增速分别维持在1.3%和1.1%的低位。 这一年，全球贸易在逆境中悄然重塑。世贸组织数据显示，2025年上半年，全球货物贸易量同比增 长4.9%，全年预期上调至2.4%。推动力不仅来自美国关税前的"囤货效应"，更得益于发展中国家间的 贸易扩张——亚洲贡献了全球贸易增量的主要份额，中国在电子产品、绿色产业等领域的出口韧性尤其 突出。 这种分化映射出全球经济格局的重 ...

Economic Overview - The global economy in 2025 is expected to show resilience despite challenges such as U.S. tariffs, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and increased financial volatility, with growth projected to exceed expectations [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, while the U.S. economy is expected to grow only 2.0% in 2025 and further decline to 1.7% in 2026 [1] - Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to be the main drivers of global growth, with a forecasted growth rate of 4.2% in 2025, particularly strong in ASEAN countries at 4.7% [1] Trade Dynamics - Global trade is undergoing a transformation, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in global goods trade volume in the first half of 2025, and an annual forecast adjustment to 2.4% [2] - The growth in trade is attributed to both pre-tariff stockpiling in the U.S. and expanding trade among developing countries, with Asia contributing significantly to global trade growth [2] - The trade system faces deep challenges, including unilateral tariffs and geopolitical conflicts, which have created significant turmoil in the past 80 years [2] Technological and Green Transition - AI and green transitions are identified as dual driving forces for economic growth, with AI investments expected to boost global trade by 34% to 37% by 2040 [3] - However, there are risks associated with AI investments, which may resemble the internet bubble if returns do not meet expectations [3] - China's investments in renewable energy technologies have reduced global clean energy costs, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeding 50% [3] China's Economic Stability - China's GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 5.2%, with the total expected to surpass 140 trillion yuan for the year, driven by consumption and manufacturing investment [4] - The country is enhancing its macroeconomic stability through policies aimed at high-level opening up and expanding cooperation, including the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port [4] - China's focus on AI and biotechnology in its 14th Five-Year Plan is expected to provide market opportunities and technology transfer for developing countries [4] Future Outlook - The resilience of the global economy in 2025 is attributed to technological breakthroughs and the rise of emerging economies, with a need to find balance amid uncertainties in 2026 [4] - Potential market volatility may arise from trade policy disagreements, U.S. debt risks, and uncertainties in Japan's stimulus plans, but opportunities remain in AI applications and green technology [4]

Group 1: Economic Policies and Trends - In 2025, the U.S. government is implementing conservative economic policies and nationalist trade protectionism, focusing on "small government" principles and significant tax cuts [1] - The U.S. GDP growth shows a trend of declining initially and then increasing, with quarterly growth rates of -0.5%, 3.8%, and 4.3% respectively [1] - The overall inflation is expected to ease, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in September [3] Group 2: Technology Sector Performance - Major tech companies like Apple, Microsoft, and Google are maintaining revenue growth rates of 8% to 12% due to advancements in AI and enterprise solutions [2] - Startups are facing challenges, with total financing down 28% in 2025 due to high costs and increased investment thresholds [2] - There is a significant disparity in layoffs within the tech sector, with companies like Meta and Amazon expanding AI-related departments while traditional software and hardware sectors see over 60% layoffs [2] Group 3: Manufacturing and Services Sector - Despite government efforts to revive manufacturing, the sector is struggling, with a projected Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) average of 48.5, indicating contraction [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector is particularly affected, with production down 3.2% year-on-year due to supply chain disruptions and weak consumer demand [2] - The service sector remains a growth pillar for the U.S. economy, although there is a noticeable shift in consumer spending patterns towards lower-quality goods [2] Group 4: Employment and Labor Market - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.6% by November 2025, indicating a cooling labor market [4] - There is a trend of "no job prosperity," with significant layoffs in the tech sector and a widening wealth gap potentially impacting consumer spending [4] - The Federal Reserve has shifted to a rate-cutting stance, reducing rates by 75 basis points since September 2025 in response to economic pressures [4] Group 5: Future Economic Outlook - Economic growth in 2026 is expected to be driven by private consumption and AI-related investments, with a projected growth rate of around 2.5% [6] - The structural decline in inflation is anticipated, with core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation expected to be below 2.5% [6] - The economic outlook remains uncertain due to various factors, including debt sustainability, trade policies, and geopolitical tensions [6][7]

墨西哥这两年在贸易上动作频频，本来是北美供应链的中坚，受美国影响深。2023年夏天，墨西哥政府 突然对来自中国等亚洲国家的钢铁、铝和化工品加征关税，最高25%。这政策一落地，当地工厂成本就 上去了，因为不少原料靠进口。 彼得·纳瓦罗在美国政坛上总喜欢搅动经贸话题，尤其对华态度一贯强硬。他从民主党背景转投特朗普 阵营后，就成了贸易保护主义的代言人。早年间写书抨击中国经济模式，数据常常被指责有偏差。 企业主们私下抱怨，供应链被打乱，生产节奏跟不上。到2025年9月，墨西哥又推更大方案，覆盖上千 项产品，税率拉到50%。国会12月10日批准时，虽然有些调整，但核心是针对非自贸伙伴国，明显冲着 中国去。 2023年因藐视国会调查坐牢四个月，出狱后没多久，又被特朗普拉回白宫，当上贸易和制造业高级顾 问。纳瓦罗的逻辑简单粗暴，强调关税能重振美国制造业，减少逆差，却忽略全球供应链的复杂性。他 的回归，让人觉得特朗普第二任期的贸易政策会更趋对抗。 中方不光发声明，还在行动上稳扎稳打。商务部启动调查，与墨西哥企业沟通损失评估。国内产业则抓 紧优化，从新能源到电子，订单没受大影响。使馆的回击被国际认可，因为它戳中了要害：单边关税 ...

前言 2025年12月，随着中方反制措施落地，曾经横扫中国货架的欧盟乳制品不得不重新计算成本。 与此同时，卢拉对欧盟的耐心也耗尽了，明确表示自贸协定再拖就彻底黄了。 欧盟一边死守自家农业大门，一边挥舞补贴大棒，这种既要又要的贪婪还能撑多久？南美市场转身离去 后，谁来为欧洲的亏损买单？ （编辑：口蘑） 24小时倒计时 24小时倒计时归零，这不是一场情绪化的宣战，而是一次精准的规则回击，曾经，欧洲奶酪、黄油在中 国超市里卖得比国产还便宜，这背后连着欧盟财政的高额输血管道，现在，中方用"保证金"这道滤网， 剥离了那些不正当的竞争优势。 摆在中国消费者面前的是一个真相：所谓的低价，不过是别人用纳税人的钱给你设下的甜蜜陷阱。一旦 本土产业因为这些低价而崩溃，定价权旁落，未来的收割只会更加残酷，这并非关门，而是立规矩。 商务部花了一年多时间调查，像耐心的会计师一样，把欧盟那些藏在繁杂政策背后的补贴账目一项项扒 了出来，事实证明，这种系统性的补贴行为，让本该公平的自由竞争变了味，如果放任不管，结局并不 是老百姓永远能吃到便宜的进口奶酪，而是中国本土的乳制品产业链会像多米诺骨牌一样崩塌。 曾经摆在货架上的那些欧洲产品，价格之 ...

Core Viewpoint - The journey of the "Zhenhua 29" cargo ship symbolizes the peak of globalization, which may be coming to an end due to rising tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly concerning Chinese-manufactured port cranes viewed as a national security threat by the U.S. government [1][12]. Group 1: Shipping Journey and Logistics - The "Zhenhua 29" completed one of the longest shipping routes globally, taking three and a half months and covering nearly 20,000 nautical miles, transporting five giant port cranes from Shanghai to various ports in the U.S. and Jamaica [1][11]. - The ship's first stop was Gulfport, Mississippi, after a journey that included navigating through the Indian Ocean and crossing the Atlantic Ocean, highlighting the complexities and dangers of transporting such large equipment [5][16]. - The ship's route was complicated by restrictions at the Panama Canal, requiring it to take a longer path to accommodate the cranes' extended arms [14][15]. Group 2: Industry Context and Market Dynamics - China currently accounts for over 70% of global port crane production, with approximately 80% of cranes used in U.S. ports sourced from China [6][17]. - The U.S. government has proposed a 100% tariff on Chinese-manufactured port cranes, citing national security concerns, which could disrupt supply chains and increase global shipping costs [9][20]. - The U.S. port and terminal operators have expressed that the popularity of Chinese cranes is due to their availability and lower prices, and the proposed tariffs may not effectively address the underlying supply issues [10][20]. Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - U.S. officials have raised unfounded security concerns about the technology in Chinese cranes, suggesting they could be used for espionage, which has been refuted by Chinese officials and contradicted by U.S. Coast Guard inspections that found no security vulnerabilities [8][12][18]. - The U.S. has been criticized for its unilateral and protectionist measures, which may ultimately harm global trade and supply chain stability rather than revitalize its domestic manufacturing sector [10][20].

Core Viewpoint - The journey of the "Zhenhua 29" cargo ship symbolizes the peak of globalization, which may be coming to an end due to rising tensions in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly concerning Chinese-manufactured port cranes [1][5]. Group 1: Shipping Journey and Logistics - The "Zhenhua 29" completed one of the longest shipping routes globally, taking three and a half months to travel nearly 20,000 nautical miles from Shanghai to various ports in the U.S. and Jamaica [1]. - The ship's route included a detour around the Cape of Good Hope due to severe weather conditions, highlighting the challenges of transporting large cranes across oceans [4]. - The ship is owned by Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries (ZPMC), the world's largest manufacturer of port cranes, which produces hundreds of cranes annually at its facility in Changxing Island [4][7]. Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. government views Chinese port cranes as a national security threat, despite a lack of evidence to support these claims, as confirmed by inspections that found no security vulnerabilities [1][6]. - The Biden administration has proposed tariffs of 100% on Chinese-manufactured port cranes, citing concerns over technology transfer and intellectual property [6][7]. - U.S. port operators have expressed that high tariffs could disrupt supply chains and increase shipping costs, as Chinese cranes are favored for their availability and lower prices [7]. Group 3: Industry Impact and Future Outlook - China currently accounts for over 70% of global port crane production, with approximately 80% of U.S. port cranes sourced from China [5]. - The U.S. has lost domestic crane manufacturing capacity over the past few decades, and establishing sufficient production capabilities in the U.S. could take around ten years [7]. - The Chinese government has defended its crane manufacturing industry as a result of technological innovation and market competition, arguing that U.S. claims lack factual basis and economic rationale [7].

2025年，拉美经济仍受困于"低增长能力陷阱"，面临的长期结构性困境始终未得到根本性改善，又遭遇 短期外部不利冲击。展望2026年，拉美仍将承压前行，亟需通过多元化分散风险。 联合国贸易和发展会议近期发布2025年度《贸易与发展报告》指出，全球经济处于"脆弱韧性"状态，在 强不确定性中持续弱复苏。在此背景下，拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（以下简称"拉美"）经济依旧受困 于"低增长能力陷阱"，暂未爆发重大系统性危机，但未来或将面临较大的经济放缓风险，地区多数国家 仍需探索新的发展路径。 经济略有改善 联合国拉丁美洲和加勒比经济委员会（以下简称"拉加经委会"）预测，2025年拉美地区经济将增长 2.4%，略高于2024年的增长水平。这一改善主要源自三重动力：一是宏观基本面良好，消费贡献了地 区经济增长的近一半，年度新增就业继续改善、总体通货膨胀率得到有效控制，多数国家得以降低利 率，这些促使地区私人消费持续上升，支撑国内生产总值(GDP)增长；二是前期经济调整在部分国家收 获成效，阿根廷、厄瓜多尔、玻利维亚、牙买加等国恢复经济增长；三是贸易条件略有改善，地区出口 商品价格指数小幅上涨0.2%，特别是农产品价格指数上涨2. ...

12月上旬，马克龙对中国进行访问，中国给予高规格接待，但马克龙回国后不久即对中国口出狂言，声称如果中国不解决中欧之间的贸易失衡问题，欧盟将 会采取更多的贸易保护主义措施，效仿美国对中国加征关税，完全将中国对他的礼遇和善意抛到了脑后。实际上，这已经不是马克龙第一次伤害中国了，欧 盟对中国电动汽车加征关税，就是马克龙带头支持的。马克龙过去几年曾经两次访华，中国都相当重视，但从实际效果来看，马克龙似乎并不领情，看来中 国需要说一些马克龙听得懂的话。 根据环球网12月23日消息，中国决定自当天起，对原产于欧盟的进口相关乳制品实施临时的反补贴措施，从价补贴率范围为21.9%至42.7%。路透社等媒体 认为，这是中国对欧盟对华征收电动汽车关税的回应。中方此举，最难受的大概就是法国总统马克龙了。根据业内人士的分析，中国商务部此次公布的15家 抽样公司中，有12家都是法国公司，其中比较有代表性的企业菲仕兰比利时有限公司和菲仕兰荷兰有限公司均被征收最高的42.7%。 中国新能源汽车性能强悍、技术先进，即便承受着高额关税，在欧盟市场上依然非常受消费者欢迎，足以证明其不可替代性。而乳制品、猪肉制品，中国可 选择的就太多了，仅仅是新 ...

专题：2025三亚•财经国际论坛 三亚•财经国际论坛暨第五届三亚财富管理大会12月27日在海南三亚举办。世界贸易组织原副总干事、 商务部原副部长易小准出席并演讲。 易小准指出，要意识到全球经济治理当前正处于天下大乱走向天下大治的最困难阶段。他提到，20多年 前在中国加入WTO的谈判时候，美欧这些发达国家不断的劝导我们，要减少贸易壁垒，降低关税，对 外开放市场，要欢迎外商投资，遵守多边贸易规则，要加入以规则为基础的多边贸易体制。中国接受了 这些理念，也因为自己的开放而变得更加强大，但是令人遗撼的是，当年的这些"老师"今天走到了全球 化的反面。 他认为，这是地缘政治和市场经济逻辑的一场长期博弈，短期内关税的冲击将会对中国出口增长造成显 著负面的影响。然而中长期来看，即使美国短期内可以依靠高关税限制中国产品对他们的竞争，比较依 靠高额补贴吸引产业回流，但仍然有三个问题无法解决：一是生产成本需要长期具有竞争；二是要有完 整和高效率的产业链；三是要有销售这些产品的大规模市场。 易小准强调，这三方面的优势恰恰都在中国，逐利是资本的天性，跨国公司在全球特别是中国布局产业 链，就是想要发挥不同国家的比较优势，通过专业分工降低 ...