Market Overview - The A-share market shows a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3145.55, up 1.58% [2] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6075.98 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.05 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.18 [3] Economic Insights - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1674 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating a proactive monetary policy stance [26][27] - The financial regulatory authority has adjusted the investment ratios for insurance funds in equity assets, aiming to enhance capital allocation towards strategic emerging industries [28][29] Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector is set to benefit from the newly released "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Power" which outlines a roadmap for agricultural modernization by 2035 [41][43] - The storage chip market is experiencing stable prices, with DRAM products showing slight increases in average prices compared to the beginning of the year [40] Company Updates - Muyuan Foods reported a 41% year-on-year increase in pig sales in March, with a total of 6.935 million pigs sold [45] - Morning Light Bio announced a significant increase in Q1 2025 net profit, expected to grow by 133% to 211% year-on-year, driven by the growth in plant extraction business [50] - Guizhou Moutai is preparing a new share repurchase plan, having already repurchased 1.32 million shares, representing 0.1048% of its total share capital [54][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market is affected by tariff conflicts, with high uncertainty. The global recession model remains the baseline expectation. The weakening of equity expectations is the main short - term logic, and there are many uncertainties in the medium - term. It is recommended to be cautious, considering short - selling or hedging [4][5]. - For the bond market, the trading logic has shifted from concerns about the capital side to the fundamentals. With the high uncertainty of tariff conflicts, monetary easing may be on the way. It is recommended to consider simple and effective unilateral strategies and also consider steepening the yield curve [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - A - shares adjusted on Monday due to overseas tariff shocks. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin increased their holdings of ETFs and stocks to maintain the stability of the capital market. China has sufficient room for policy adjustment in monetary and fiscal policies and will take measures to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market. China Guoxin's subsidiary will increase its holdings of stocks and ETFs with an initial amount of 80 billion yuan [4]. - The land markets in hot cities are hot, and the real estate trading volume in first - tier and core second - tier cities continues to recover. The "Silver April" is an important node for the property market [4]. - The White House denied the news of a 90 - day tariff suspension. The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US imports starting from May 16 and removed US bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [4]. - The Fed held a closed - door meeting to review and determine interest rates. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 0.5% [4]. - Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw the 34% tariff retaliation by April 8 [4]. - Eurozone's February retail sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market declined significantly due to tariff conflicts. The uncertainty of tariff conflicts remains, and the global recession model is the baseline expectation. It is recommended to consider short - selling or hedging, being cautious [4][5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The recession expectation pushed the bond market to open higher, but capital net withdrawal and exchange - rate depreciation pressure restricted the bond market. The trading logic has shifted to the fundamentals, and monetary easing may be coming. It is recommended to consider simple unilateral strategies and steepening the yield curve [6]. Container Shipping on European Routes - If the tariff policy is implemented, the shipping volume on the US routes will face pressure, and the overflow of capacity to European routes may suppress freight rates. In the short - term, the improvement of supply - demand is difficult to achieve, and the market's expectation of the peak season may be restricted. It is recommended to do an EC2506/EC2510 reverse spread [7]. Cotton - The price of US cotton was affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" order. The domestic cotton price is expected to be weak due to concerns about external demand, high inventory, and the contradiction between domestic demand expansion and weak external demand [8]. Sugar - The sugar price was under pressure due to the US tariff policy and higher - than - expected domestic production. In the future, factors such as India's production cut, Brazil's new harvest season, and Thailand's production increase will affect the price. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate and be resistant to decline [8][9][10]. Oilseeds and Oils - Palm oil may face a decline in the far - month contracts due to the drop in international crude oil prices and the weakening of the driving force for the rise in domestic oils. The price of soybean meal rose due to China's tariff on US imports. In the short - term, it may be strong, but there is also hedging pressure. It is recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal contracts [10][11]. Eggs - The egg futures rebounded due to factors such as faster spot sales and feed price increase expectations but then fell back due to the overall loose supply - demand situation. In the future, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand has unfavorable factors. Feed price increase may support the far - month contracts and strengthen the pattern of near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short - sell on the 05 - 07 rebound and consider a short - 7 long - 9 reverse spread [11][12][13]. Apples - The apple price was supported by factors such as strong spot prices, fast inventory clearance, and high delivery costs. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [14]. Red Dates - The red date market was less affected by the external environment due to its self - sufficient nature. With the increase in seasonal fresh fruits, the demand for red dates decreased, and the inventory was high. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to roll - over risks [14]. Pigs - The pig price rebounded due to the reduction in supply by leading enterprises. In the future, the supply pressure will continue to be realized, and the consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [15]. Crude Oil - The international oil price fell due to the US tariff policy. In the long - term, the supply will increase, and the demand is weak. The oil price is in a panic - selling stage, and there is no sign of stabilization [15][16]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was affected by the trade war. The impact on import - export shipping demand is significant, and the price has not bottomed out, depending on the market's interpretation of the trade war [17][18]. Plastics - In the long - term, tariffs will suppress export demand. In the short - term, factors such as reduced imports and potential production cuts in PP may have a greater impact. It is recommended to be bearish on L and wait and see for PP [19]. Methanol - The demand for methanol is expected to weaken due to the US - China tariff war and the increase in import supply. The market has different views on methanol pricing. It is recommended to have a bearish view [20]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong declined. The Trump tariff policy has a negative impact on the demand for caustic soda. It is recommended to have a bearish view on caustic soda futures [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - The price of soda ash opened low and rebounded. The supply is at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The glass price opened low and then strengthened, with good short - term sales and inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash spread [22][23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price was affected by the counter - tariff and the drop in crude oil prices. The import cost has increased, and the demand is affected by the global recession expectation. The price increase is restricted [23]. Pulp - The pulp price fell due to the macro - economic situation. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. In the medium - term, the supply of coniferous pulp may be tight due to the tariff on US imports [23]. Logs - The log market is in a stable and oscillating state. The demand has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US trade friction [23]. Urea - The spot price of urea is weak, and the futures price has no obvious upward momentum in the short - term. There is a demand for bargain - hunting in the future. It is recommended to change from a bearish to a bullish view when the market improves [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market was affected by the macro - environment and stopped trading at the daily limit. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum was affected by the Trump tariff, with a short - term emotional impact. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and it is also recommended to go short on rallies in the short - term [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was affected by the US tariff policy. The direct impact on the lithium salt end is limited, and the demand on the finished - product end may be restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The prices of steel and iron ore declined due to the US tariff policy. The current price decline may have reflected the negative impact, and it is difficult to rebound significantly in the short - term. The supply - demand is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [29][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke were weak due to the tariff policy. The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines is affected, but large - scale production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The demand may improve, but it needs to be observed. It is recommended not to go long until there are signs of large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [31]. Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese opened lower and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost is under downward pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies [32].

中国人民银行新闻发言人就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答记者问。 央行： 坚决维护资本市场平稳运行 问：4月7日，中央汇金公司发布公告，将持续加大增持ETF规模和力度。请问中国人民银行怎么看？ 问：中央汇金公司如何看待中国资本市场发展前景? 答： 中央汇金公司坚定看好资本市场发展前景,根本在于看好中国经济的光明未来。当前,我国高质量发展扎实推进,新质生产力蓬勃发展,经济持续回升向好的基础更 加稳固,资本市场平稳健康发展具有坚强的基本面支撑。特别是2024年9月26日中央政治局会议出台一揽子增量政策以来,资本市场呈现出积极而深刻的变化。作为长 期机构投资者,中央汇金公司将继续秉持长期投资、价值投资理念,积极支持资本市场健康发展。 答： 中国人民银行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股票市场指数基金，并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 图片 中央汇金公司有关负责人就2025年4月7日公告答记者问 问：中央汇金公司在维护资本市场稳定中的定位和作用是什么? 答： 中央汇金投资有限责任公司(以下简称中央汇金公司)是国有独资公司,目前是二十多家金融机构的控参股股东。中央汇金公司一直是维护 ...

Group 1 - Central Huijin expressed strong confidence in the development prospects of the Chinese capital market and announced plans to continue increasing holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to maintain market stability [1][2] - China Chengtong Group stated its commitment to significantly increase holdings in central state-owned enterprise stocks and technology innovation stocks, supporting high-quality development of listed companies [4] - China Guoxin announced an initial investment of 80 billion yuan through special refinancing to increase holdings in central enterprise stocks, technology innovation stocks, and ETFs, contributing to market stability [6] Group 2 - China Electronics Technology Group (CETC) completed a stock repurchase exceeding 2 billion yuan, reinforcing its commitment to the capital market and supporting the high-quality development of listed companies [8][11] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) plans to repurchase shares with a total amount between 4 billion and 8 billion yuan, with a maximum repurchase price set at 392.32 yuan per share [12][14]