SHMET 网讯：央行8月13日公布的金融数据显示，7月末，社会融资规模、广义货币（M2）同比 分别增长9%、8.8%，均保持在较高水平。 业内专家表示，最新金融数据体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向，为实体经济提供了适宜的货币金融 环境。 贷款利率保持低位运行 新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1% 经过2018年以来多次降息，贷款利率已经处于较低的水平，今年以来进一步下行。 央行数据披露，7月利率低位运行，新发放企业贷款利率约为3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约为 3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。 "利率是资金供求关系的价格信号，利率低位下行反映信贷供给相对充裕，资金需求方获得银行信 贷支持更加容易、成本更加优惠。"分析人士表示。 另外，新发放贷款这一指标值得关注，它反映的是当期银行实际发放和回收的情况。 专家对此解读称，如果一段时期内，贷款发放量很大，同时回收量也很大，最终从贷款余额增量和 增速角度看可能不高，但实体经济有效融资需求是充分满足的。从一些发达经济体的实践来看，贷款余 额增速到一定阶段后会趋于稳定，但存量贷款滚动续作，贷款发放和回收等流量指标并不低，企业和居 民融资需求均能有效满足。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financing - The People's Bank of China reported that the cumulative increase in social financing for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - As of the end of July 2025, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 329.94 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - The net fund injection for the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy aimed at supporting the real economy [1] Group 2: Consumer Lending and Financial Support - The interest rate for personal consumption loan subsidies has dropped to an annualized rate of 1%, significantly lower than the current commercial bank rates, allowing qualified customers to access loans at rates in the "2" range, effectively reducing borrowing costs [2] - This subsidy policy is expected to alleviate repayment pressure for consumers, thereby boosting confidence and stimulating consumption potential [2] Group 3: Housing Policy - The Tianjin Housing Provident Fund Management Center announced that individuals can now use their housing provident fund to pay the down payment for purchasing existing homes, allowing for a one-time withdrawal of funds prior to the signing of the purchase contract [3] - This policy simplifies the process for homebuyers, reduces transaction costs, and does not affect the normal loan limits for provident fund loans [3] Group 4: Bank Participation in Subsidy Programs - Six major state-owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, Bank of China, CCB, BOCOM, and Postal Savings Bank, have committed to implementing the personal consumption loan subsidy policy starting September 1, 2025 [4] - The initiative aims to enhance consumer spending and support high-quality consumption development through innovative and diverse consumption scenarios [4]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of July, social financing scale, broad money (M2), and RMB loans grew by 9%, 8.8%, and 6.9% year-on-year, respectively, continuing to exceed economic growth rates [1][2]. Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - The social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2]. - The increase in government bonds is a major driver of social financing growth, supported by a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The government’s bond issuance is aimed at increasing demand and supporting the economy while reducing the average financing cost for society [2]. Group 2: Money Supply and Efficiency - M2 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, which is 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating improved efficiency in the circulation of funds [3]. - The narrowing "scissors difference" between M2 and narrow money (M1) reflects an increase in the liquidity and efficiency of funds [5]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Structure - As of the end of July, the RMB loan balance was 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, down from 8.7% the previous year [6]. - The traditional seasonal pattern of credit growth in July, along with the impact of local government debt replacement, has influenced loan data [6][7]. - The structure of credit is further optimized to meet the demands of economic transformation, with significant growth in inclusive small and micro loans and medium to long-term loans for manufacturing [8]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Future Outlook - Loan interest rates remain low, with new corporate loan rates around 3.2% and new personal housing loan rates around 3.1%, reflecting a favorable credit supply environment [8]. - Experts anticipate that macroeconomic policies will maintain continuity and stability in the second half of the year, supporting economic recovery and reasonable growth in effective credit demand [8].

Group 1 - The central bank's latest financial data indicates a moderately loose monetary policy, with social financing and broad money (M2) growing by 9% and 8.8% year-on-year, respectively, as of the end of July [1] - New personal housing loan rates are approximately 3.1%, while new corporate loan rates are around 3.2%, reflecting a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points compared to the same period last year [2] - The overall credit resource supply is abundant, and the financing needs of the real economy are being met, supported by various policy measures that enhance the interest rate mechanism [3] Group 2 - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, and a total increase of 12.87 trillion yuan in RMB loans over the first seven months [4] - The increase in loans to households and enterprises indicates a robust support for the real economy, with household loans increasing by 680.7 billion yuan and enterprise loans rising by 11.63 trillion yuan [4] - The social financing scale indicator, introduced by the central bank, provides a comprehensive view of financial growth, encompassing various financing channels beyond just loans [5] Group 3 - The new loan issuance metric is crucial as it reflects the actual lending and repayment activities of banks during the current period [6] - High loan issuance and repayment volumes can lead to stable loan balance growth, indicating that the effective financing needs of the economy are being adequately met [7]

【导读】央行公布最新金融数据，体现适度宽松的货币政策取向 央行8月13日公布的金融数据显示，7月末，社会融资规模、广义货币（M2）同比分别增长9%、8.8%， 均保持在较高水平。 业内专家表示，最新金融数据体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向，为实体经济提供了适宜的货币金融环 境。 贷款利率保持低位运行 新发放个人住房贷款利率约3.1% 经过2018年以来多次降息，贷款利率已经处于较低的水平，今年以来进一步下行。 央行数据披露，7月利率低位运行，新发放企业贷款利率约为3.2%，新发放个人住房贷款利率约为 3.1%，分别较去年同期下降约45个和30个基点。 "利率是资金供求关系的价格信号，利率低位下行反映信贷供给相对充裕，资金需求方获得银行信贷支 持更加容易、成本更加优惠。"分析人士表示。 有中小制造业企业反映，以前贷款利率最高达到6.5%左右，现在只有过去的一半，这对企业盈亏的影 响是很大的。 业内专家认为，贷款利率已经在低位运行了很长时间，说明信贷资源供给总体是充裕的，实体经济的融 资需求满足度比较高，加上禁止违规"手工补息"、建立存款招投标利率报备机制、优化非银同业存款利 率自律管理等一系列政策举措的实施，让利率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest financial data from the central bank indicates a moderately loose monetary policy, providing a suitable financial environment for the real economy [2] Group 1: Loan Rates - New personal housing loan rates are approximately 3.1%, while new corporate loan rates are around 3.2%, both showing a decline of about 45 and 30 basis points year-on-year respectively [3][4] - The low interest rates reflect a relatively abundant supply of credit, making it easier and cheaper for borrowers to obtain bank loans [4] - The reduction in financing costs positively impacts expectations and expands demand, as evidenced by a technology company that applied for a loan to upgrade its production line after receiving a rate discount [4] Group 2: Loan Growth - As of the end of July, the balance of RMB loans reached 268.51 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, and a total increase of 12.87 trillion yuan in the first seven months [7] - The increase in loans is categorized into household loans, which rose by 680.7 billion yuan, and corporate loans, which increased by 11.63 trillion yuan [7] - The growth rate of loan balances remains significantly higher than the nominal economic growth rate, indicating stable support for the real economy from credit [7] Group 3: Financing Channels - The diversification of corporate financing channels, along with the acceleration of government bond issuance, makes it increasingly difficult for loans alone to reflect the financial support for the real economy [7] - The central bank's introduction of the social financing scale indicator provides a more comprehensive view of financial growth, encompassing various financing channels beyond just loans [7][8] - The focus on new loan issuance reflects the actual lending and repayment situation, which can indicate effective satisfaction of financing needs even if the balance growth appears low [8]

新华社北京5月7日电（记者吴雨、任军）中国人民银行行长潘功胜7日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，中国 人民银行将加大宏观调控强度，推出10项政策，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，推动经济高质量发 展。 第二，完善存款准备金制度，阶段性将汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率，从目前的5%调降至 0%。 第三，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，即公开市场7天期逆回购操作利率从目前的1.5%调降至1.4%，预计将带 动贷款市场报价利率（LPR）同步下行约0.1个百分点。 第四，下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点，包括：各类专项结构性工具利率、支农支小再贷款利 率，均从目前的1.75%降至1.5%；抵押补充贷款（PSL）利率从目前的2.25%降至2%。 第五，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，五年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限 的利率同步调整。 第六，增加3000亿元科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度，由目前的5000亿元增加至8000亿元，持续支持"两 新"政策实施。 第七，设立5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款，引导商业银行加大对服务消费与养老的信贷支持。 第八，增加支农支小再贷款额度300 ...

Group 1 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party has indicated that a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented next year, which is expected to facilitate corporate financing [1] - The central bank has injected ample liquidity into the market this year through various monetary policy tools, including lowering the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates, as well as establishing multiple targeted relending programs [1] Group 2 - This presents a rare financing opportunity for enterprises, especially those with expansion needs, allowing them to obtain funds at a lower cost for key areas such as technology research and market expansion [4] - Companies are encouraged to pay attention to new monetary tools, such as stock buybacks and targeted relending, to optimize their capital structure and enhance their financial stability [4] - By closely monitoring changes in monetary policy and seizing financing opportunities, companies can achieve both scale and efficiency growth, navigating the capital market successfully [4]

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 11 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 货币政策宽松预期仍存，但短期 内降息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。8 月以来，国债期货探底回升，主要是因为 7 月政治 局会议重申了未来落实适度宽松的货币政策，进一步推动实 ...

Group 1: CPI Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a 0.1% decline from the previous month, while year-on-year CPI remained flat [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and reflecting positive signals in the consumption market [2] Group 2: Price Influences - The month-on-month CPI increase was primarily driven by a 0.6% rise in service prices, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant impacts from travel-related costs during the summer season [1] - Industrial consumer goods prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by a 1.6% increase in energy prices, which contributed about 0.12 percentage points to the CPI [1] Group 3: Food Prices Impact - Year-on-year CPI remained flat mainly due to a 1.6% decline in food prices, with fresh vegetables and fruits being the primary contributors to this decrease [2] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry increased significantly, by 37.1% and 27.3% respectively, collectively impacting the CPI by approximately 0.22 percentage points [2] Group 4: Monetary Policy Context - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for moderately loose monetary policy to address challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, aiming to stabilize economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [3]