本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘诗萌 北京报道 7月初，中央财经委员会第六次会议召开，明确要推动落后产能有序退出，将"反内卷"政策提升至新的 高度。一个多月时间过去，从统计数据来看，政策的效果已经初步显现。 中泰证券研究所政策组首席分析师杨畅向《华夏时报》记者表示，PPI呈现出环比降幅收窄的迹象。从 结构上看，上游环比降幅收窄更加明显，采掘工业、原材料工业、加工工业环比降幅分别收窄1个、0.6 个、0.2个百分点，或因反内卷政策主要集中在中上游行业，使得上游波动更加明显。 CPI方面，7月CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，主要受服务和工业消费品价格上涨带动。其中， 工业消费品价格环比上涨0.5%，影响CPI环比上涨约0.17个百分点，尤其是燃油小汽车和新能源小汽车 价格均由连续5个月以上的下降转为持平。蔡伟认为，汽车制造业PPI环比上涨0.2%，显现出汽车产业 治理企业低价无序竞争、推动落后产能退出和产品品质提升等政策取得初步成效，未来价格企稳回升或 将逐步传导至消费环节的CPI分项。 短期工业承压 8月15日，国家统计局公布7月统计数据。从CPI来看，7月份CPI环比上涨0.4% ...

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is showing initial effects, with July's CPI and PPI data indicating improvements in price stability and industrial performance [1][2][3] - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, driven by rising prices in industrial consumer goods and services [4][1] - The PPI saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline narrowed for the first time since March, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices [3][2] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for July was 49.3%, indicating a contraction, but the prices of major raw materials showed recovery, with the purchasing price index rising to 51.5% [2][3] - Industrial production growth slowed in July, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, down from 6.8% in June, reflecting the short-term impact of the "anti-involution" policy [5][6] - Investment in manufacturing decreased significantly, with growth dropping from 5.1% in June to -0.3% in July, highlighting the challenges faced by industries like automotive and solar [6][5] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to lead to a long-term improvement in competition efficiency and innovation, potentially boosting prices and corporate profits in the future [6][5] - The government is actively managing supply and demand in key sectors like steel and coal, which may lead to production pressures in these industries [6][5] - The overall industrial production index for July was 50.5%, indicating a slight decline, suggesting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [6][5]

Economic Overview - In July, major economic indicators maintained overall stability, with new growth drivers emerging, supporting steady economic development despite existing risks and challenges [1] - The macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, leading to expanded market demand and enhanced market vitality [1] New Quality Productivity - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.3% year-on-year in July, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.6 percentage points [2] - The digital economy is rapidly developing, with the added value of digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.4% year-on-year in July [2] - Production of green low-carbon products is also on the rise, with new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and wind turbine generators seeing production increases of 17.1%, 29.4%, and 19.3% respectively [2] Foreign Trade - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [3] - The diversification of trade is evident, with exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road countries growing by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively from January to July [3] - The export of integrated circuits surged by 21.8%, reflecting enhanced international competitiveness due to improved R&D capabilities [3] Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year in July, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% from January to July [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted sales, with significant growth in retail sales of home appliances, furniture, and communication equipment [4] - Tourism and leisure-related consumption saw rapid growth during the summer, with double-digit increases in retail sales for travel services and recreational activities [5] Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, with actual growth (adjusted for price factors) estimated between 4% and 5% [6] - Manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, significantly outpacing overall investment growth [6] - Investment in high-tech industries, particularly in aerospace and information services, saw substantial increases of 33.9% and 32.8% respectively [6] Price Trends - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% [7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a strengthening market demand [7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, marking the first reduction in the decline since March [7]

Group 1 - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, which is expected to improve market supply and demand relationships in certain sectors [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month, indicating a positive shift in industrial consumer goods prices [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, but the decline was narrower than the previous month, marking the first contraction reduction since March [3] Group 2 - The prices of fuel and new energy vehicles stabilized in July, halting a consecutive decline, which reflects a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [3] - The government anticipates that with more proactive macroeconomic policies and ongoing consumption-boosting initiatives, the foundation for reasonable price recovery will be strengthened [3] - Despite external uncertainties and competitive pressures in some domestic industries, the regulation of low-price competition is expected to support price stabilization and improvement in key sectors [3]

Group 1 - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed positive changes, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 0.1% [1] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service and industrial consumer goods prices, with significant price hikes in transportation-related services due to the summer travel season [1][2] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a steady upward trend [2][3] Group 2 - The increase in core CPI is attributed to effective implementation of consumption-boosting policies and gradual release of consumption potential, alongside the establishment of a unified domestic market [3] - Prices of industrial consumer goods, excluding energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with household appliances seeing a 2.8% increase, reflecting a positive impact on CPI [3] - Service prices also experienced a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, with notable rises in household and educational services, contributing to the overall CPI growth [3][4] Group 3 - Overall, the CPI in July remained stable, with positive changes continuing to emerge, although the market still faces a situation of strong supply and weak demand [4] - Future policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and furthering the construction of a unified national market are expected to continue yielding positive effects on price levels [4]

Group 1 - The positive changes in the consumption market will benefit the valuation recovery of the consumption sector, enhancing performance growth expectations for companies supported by policy and market demand [1] - The investment attractiveness of the consumption sector is expected to increase further, boosting investor confidence and attracting more capital inflow [1] Group 2 - In July, the PPI decline in industries such as coal, steel, cement, photovoltaic, and lithium batteries has narrowed, while CPI for fuel and new energy vehicles has stabilized after several months of decline [2] - To consolidate the foundation for moderate price recovery, it is necessary to strengthen policy coordination on both supply and demand sides, promoting industrial upgrades and demand creation [2] - On the supply side, improving standards for technology, energy consumption, and emissions is essential to phase out outdated capacity and replace it with high-quality capacity [2] Group 3 - The new consumption sector is expected to further contribute to domestic demand, particularly through the acceleration of service consumption potential, innovation in consumption scenarios and channels, and the emergence of the emotional economy [3] - The "self-care economy" trend is driving growth in new sectors such as light luxury, trendy toys, pet care, and fitness, becoming new engines for industrial upgrades and economic growth [3] Group 4 - The implementation of policies like "old for new" has led to positive changes in the consumption market, with suggestions to expand subsidy coverage to essential goods and services [4] - The focus should also be on balancing the pace of subsidy distribution to ensure policy continuity and optimize financial support and tax incentives [4] - The emotional economy-related sectors in the A-share market have shown active performance, indicating high market recognition of their growth potential [4] Group 5 - The younger consumer group increasingly values "emotional value" and "cultural identity," making "emotional price ratio" a significant factor in their purchasing decisions [5] - The rise of national brands and cultural exports is driving high growth in sectors like trendy toys and IP derivatives, with companies that possess brand advantages and innovation capabilities standing out [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, mainly due to higher service prices during the summer travel season, rising international oil and gold prices, and increased demand driven by replacement policies. The PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed, and its year - on - year growth stopped falling. Overall, with policy promotion and external factors, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream of the industrial chain was significantly better than that in the mid - and downstream. Mid - and downstream enterprises' price increases were restricted by insufficient effective demand. Anti - involution policies cannot boost prices overnight, and "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand" need to be coordinated. In the short term, with the continuous implementation of replacement and anti - involution policies, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily [3][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Service and Industrial Consumer Goods Prices Rise, CPI Month - on - Month Exceeds Seasonal Improvement - The CPI was flat year - on - year, rising 0.4% month - on - month after a 0.1% decline last month. Its month - on - month growth was better than the seasonal average [11]. - The month - on - month increase in CPI beyond the seasonal level was mainly driven by rising service and industrial consumer goods prices. During the summer travel season, service prices rose 0.6% month - on - month, contributing about 0.26 pct to the CPI increase. International oil price hikes and replacement policies led to a 0.5% month - on - month increase in industrial consumer goods prices, contributing about 0.17 pct to the CPI increase [11]. - The carry - over effect turned negative, and the negative impact on the CPI year - on - year reading from the carry - over effect will expand from August to September [12]. - The year - on - year increase in the core CPI has been expanding for three consecutive months, with the highest month - on - month increase this year, mainly affected by rising prices of gold and platinum jewelry and services [14]. - Among the eight major categories, service - related items such as transportation, communication, education, culture, entertainment, and other supplies and services had relatively large month - on - month increases, while food and tobacco decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [16]. - Food prices declined more than the seasonal average, dragging the CPI from rising to flat. In July, food prices fell 0.2% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened, mainly due to high base prices last year [17]. - Non - food prices rose more than the seasonal average, supported by the summer travel season, rising international oil prices, and policies to boost domestic demand, which was the main factor for the CPI to turn from decline to increase month - on - month [20]. 2. Raw Material and Energy Mining and Processing Prices Improve, PPI Month - on - Month Decline Narrows - The PPI was flat year - on - year, and its month - on - month decline narrowed. In July, the PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, with the same decline as last month, and 0.2% month - on - month, with a 0.2 pct narrower decline than last month [25]. - The negative impact of the carry - over effect on the PPI weakened. In August, the PPI carry - over factor rose to - 0.7%, and from September to December, it will be in the range of 0 to - 0.1%. With the continuous release of policies to expand domestic demand and combat involution, the year - on - year decline in PPI may narrow significantly [27]. - The month - on - month decline in production material prices narrowed, while the decline in consumer goods prices widened [28]. - By industry, industries such as oil and gas extraction, fuel processing, and non - ferrous metal mining and processing had relatively large month - on - month increases, while industries such as coal, ferrous metal ore, and non - metallic mineral mining had relatively large month - on - month decreases. Overall, industrial product prices in most industries still declined, but some upstream industries showed obvious improvements [30]. - The decline in the PPI - CPI gap narrowed, but mid - and downstream industrial enterprises still faced significant pressure, mainly due to rising upstream prices, falling or stagnant downstream prices, and insufficient endogenous consumer demand [34]. 3. Conclusion: Positive Signals in July's Prices In July, the CPI turned from flat to rising month - on - month, and the PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. Overall, prices improved marginally in July. However, the price improvement in the upstream was better than that in the mid - and downstream. Anti - involution policies need to be coordinated with "stabilizing prices, reducing production capacity, and increasing demand." In the short term, domestic prices are expected to recover steadily with continuous policy implementation [35].

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the inflation trends in China, specifically focusing on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for July 2023, highlighting the challenges faced by the economy and their implications for stock trading strategies [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - In July, China's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 4.4%, both figures being below market expectations, indicating challenges in economic recovery [1]. - The decline in CPI was primarily driven by a 9.5% year-on-year drop in pork prices, which offset the impact of rising fuel prices due to international crude oil increases. However, service consumption in areas such as education, tourism, and healthcare remained active, with service CPI rising by 0.5% [1][3]. - PPI was affected by weak demand and uncertainties surrounding tariffs, leading to declines across upstream, raw materials, and downstream industries. However, the "anti-involution" policy has improved competition in industries like coal and steel, resulting in a narrowing of the month-on-month decline [1][3]. - Future inflation dynamics in China are expected to shift from goods to services, with new pricing laws expanding low-price clearance to the service sector, which is anticipated to provide momentum for overall price recovery [4][5]. Additional Important Content - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to support a mild recovery in PPI, but the impact may be limited due to weak demand-side stimulus. Additionally, uncertainties from new tariffs and trade restrictions from the U.S. may constrain inflation recovery [5]. - Short-term projections indicate that PPI is unlikely to return to positive territory, while CPI may turn positive sooner [5].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2025, the CPI year-on-year remained flat at 0.0%, down from a 0.1% increase in the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 0.1% from January to July[1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose to 0.8% year-on-year in July, indicating a slight improvement in the basic price level[2] - The decline in food CPI was significant, with a year-on-year drop expanding from -0.3% to -1.6%, primarily due to high base prices from the previous year[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 3.6% in July, maintaining the same decline as the previous month, with a cumulative decline of 2.9% from January to July[1] - The PPI month-on-month fell by 0.2%, but the decline was less severe than in previous months, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[8] - The "anti-involution" policy has led to improved market price expectations, contributing to a narrowing of the PPI decline in July[9] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall price level remains weak, driven by insufficient consumer demand and a prolonged adjustment in the real estate market[6] - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to focus on promoting reasonable price recovery, with potential for further fiscal stimulus and interest rate cuts[7] - The uncertainty in the international trade environment poses ongoing downward pressure on export industrial prices, which may affect domestic PPI trends[12]