Group 1 - Iron ore futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract reported at 772.5 yuan/ton, a drop of 3.26% [1] - On August 13, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 842,000 tons, a decrease of 31.71% compared to the previous period; forward spot transactions were 335,000 tons [2] - As of August 13, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces was 83.75%, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.09%, indicating a stable demand for iron ore due to high production activity in the steel industry [2] Group 2 - On August 13, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 3,600 iron ore futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 400 receipts from the previous trading day [3] - According to Zijin Tianfeng Futures, global shipping volumes have declined again, with noticeable decreases in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while non-mainstream regions have stabilized; overall arrival volumes have increased [4] - The demand side shows a slight decline in iron water, with average daily iron water for 247 samples decreasing by 0.49 million tons to 2.4032 million tons; the average iron water for August is approximately 2.41 million tons [4] - Inventory levels have increased, with 45 port inventories rising by 620,000 tons, and total inventory showing a slight increase; rebar inventory has slightly risen, while hot-rolled coil inventory has also increased [4] - According to Zhongjin Wealth Futures, iron ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term due to high steel mill profits and stable iron water demand, although potential pressure may arise if terminal demand for steel does not meet expectations during peak season [4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore [1] - Date: August 11, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore supply and demand currently show no significant contradictions. The current shipments and arrivals have both decreased compared to the previous period. Shipments continue to decline due to ongoing maintenance at some Australian mines, and arrivals from Australia and Brazil have decreased while non - mainstream arrivals have increased, keeping the overall supply at a relatively low level. [9] - The previous period's pig iron output was 240,320 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to the previous period. It is expected to have a slight rebound this period, remaining at a high - level fluctuation. The expectation of northern production restrictions in the middle and late period affecting demand has led to a continuous weakening of the 9 - 1 spread. After the main contract switch, the 01 basis has been significantly repaired, and it may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Fundamentals and Conclusions 3.1.1 Price and Inventory - Last week, iron ore spot prices fluctuated slightly. For example, Carajás fines decreased by 5, PB fines by 3, BRBF increased by 13, etc. As of August 8, the Platts 62% index closed at $101.5, a weekly increase of $2.2, equivalent to about 848.5 yuan after currency conversion. [6] - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines, with a latest quote of about 767 yuan/ton, and the converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) was about 792 yuan/ton. The 09 iron ore was at par with the spot, and the second - best deliverable was pb fines. [6] - The inventory of 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory of 47 ports was 142.6727 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 13.43 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and 14.13 million tons lower than the same period last year. [6] 3.1.2 Supply - Shipments: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous period. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2.4277 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons compared to the previous period. Australian shipments were 1.5803 million tons, a decrease of 140,900 tons compared to the previous period, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1.3656 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons compared to the previous period. Brazilian shipments were 847,400 tons, an increase of 104,700 tons compared to the previous period. [7] - Arrivals: From August 4 to August 10, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports in China were 2.3819 million tons, a decrease of 125,900 tons compared to the previous period; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1.203 million tons, a decrease of 50,100 tons compared to the previous period. [7] 3.1.3 Demand - The average daily pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills in the current period decreased. The average daily output was 240,320 tons/day, a decrease of 390 tons/day compared to the previous period. There were 4 new blast furnace restart operations and 3 blast furnace maintenance operations. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, the pig iron output may slightly rebound in the next period. [8] - As of August 8, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,114 yuan, and the point - to - point profit was about 196 yuan. The long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 236 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric - arc furnaces in East China (Fubao's calculation) was about 3,369 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,241 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of East China rebar was about - 129 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 1 yuan. [8] 3.2 Second Part: Data Sorting 3.2.1 Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - As of August 8, the optimal deliverable was NM fines with a warehouse receipt price of about 792 yuan/ton, and the second - best was PB fines with a warehouse receipt price of 801 yuan/ton. [14] - A table provided detailed information on the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and converted warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties such as PB fines, Newman fines, and Mac fines. [14] 3.2.2 Iron Ore Inter - period - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 16.5 (- 9.5). [17] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Import Profit No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.4 High - Low Grade Price Difference No specific data or analysis was provided in the report. 3.2.5 Premium Index - As of August 7, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.185 (+ 0.0025), and the premium index for 65% pellet ore was 16 (+ 0.6). [25] 3.2.6 Brand Premium (Discount) and Inventory - The report presented inventory trends of various iron ore brands such as Mac fines, PB fines, and Jinbuba fines in 15 ports from 2021 to 2025, as well as the discount and premium trends of these brands over the years. [28] 3.2.7 Steel Mill Sintered Fines Inventory - As of August 8, the inventory of imported sintered fines decreased by 38,800 tons compared to August 1, a decrease of 2.96%. The inventory of domestic sintered fines increased by 2,100 tons, an increase of 2.35%. The average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1 day, a decrease of 4.76%. [31] 3.2.8 Port Inventory and Berthing - The report showed the historical trends of total port inventory (45 ports), berthing vessel numbers at 47 ports, Australian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), Brazilian ore inventory at ports (45 ports), and trade ore inventory at ports (45 ports) from 2021 to 2025. [36] 3.2.9 Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 8, compared to August 1, the inventory of imported port lump ore decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 1.59%; the inventory of pellet ore decreased by 43,000 tons, a decrease of 11.40%; the inventory of iron concentrate increased by 47,000 tons, an increase of 4.44%; and the inventory of coarse ore increased by 78,000 tons, an increase of 0.74%. [39] 3.2.10 Ore Removal The report presented the historical ore removal volume data from 2020 to 2025. [42] 3.2.11 Iron Ore In - Transit Volume The report showed the historical trends of iron ore in - transit volume from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream sources to China from 2022 to 2025. [45] 3.2.12 Iron Ore Import Volume The report presented the historical import volume data of iron ore in China, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, India, and other countries from 2020 to 2025. [48][49][50] 3.2.13 Australian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Australian shipments to China decreased by 123,000 tons, a decrease of 8.25%. Total Australian shipments decreased by 140,900 tons, a decrease of 8.19%. The proportion of shipments to China decreased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.07%. [57] 3.2.14 Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - From August 8 to August 1, Brazilian shipments to the world increased by 105,000 tons, an increase of 14.10%. [62] 3.2.15 Shipments of the Four Major Mines - From August 8 to August 1, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 57,000 tons, an increase of 10.88%; BHP's shipments decreased by 87,000 tons, a decrease of 17.26%; Vale's shipments decreased by 27,000 tons, a decrease of 4.55%; FMG's shipments decreased by 25,000 tons, a decrease of 8.67%. The total shipments of the four major mines decreased by 82,000 tons, a decrease of 4.29%. [64] 3.2.16 Iron Ore Arrivals - From August 8 to August 1, the arrivals at 45 ports decreased by 126,000 tons, a decrease of 5.0%. The arrivals at northern ports decreased by 50,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. [71] 3.2.17 Freight Rates The report showed the historical trends of iron ore freight rates from Tubarão, Brazil, to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao from 2020 to 2025. [73] 3.2.18 Domestic Ore Production The report presented the estimated domestic ore production data from 2017 to 2025. [75] 3.2.19 Steel Mill Fines Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 8, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points compared to August 1. The average daily pig iron output was 240,300 tons, a decrease of 390 tons compared to August 1. The daily consumption of imported sintered fines increased by 1,850 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 3.10%. The daily consumption of domestic sintered fines increased by 100 tons compared to August 1, an increase of 1.23%. [77] 3.2.20 Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 to 2025. [84] 3.2.21 Global Pig Iron Production The report showed the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 to 2025. [87] 3.2.22 Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production The report presented the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 to 2025 and the corresponding year - on - year and month - on - month changes. [92]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, it is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the shipment of overseas miners has decreased again (but the sustainability of the decrease at high ore prices needs to be tracked), and domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the ore supply continues to show a steady - to - rising trend. - On the demand side, steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously weakening with an expanding decline, but the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term commodity sentiment is being extremely interpreted, and attention should be paid to the possible inflection point of the sentiment. As an important meeting in July is approaching, the iron ore price is expected to turn into a volatile trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the overall sentiment of the black sector and the macro - economic realization. The iron ore price increase is due to the domestic commodity policy expectations and the profit space given by downstream industries under the condition of a not - bad short - term supply - demand situation. After the coking coal becomes overly strong, it squeezes the iron ore price, resulting in a decline in the iron ore price after the continuous sharp rise of coking coal this week [11][13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.091 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.22 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 25.52 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.068 million tons. The Australian shipment volume was 16.294 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.089 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.436 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.135 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.226 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.021 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 25.118 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.714 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.909 million tons [13]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week increase of 3.47 percentage points [13]. - Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 143.9568 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1417 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0943 million tons [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Price Difference: The PB - Super Special powder price difference was 126 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - PB powder price difference was 100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 3 yuan/ton. The Carajás fines - Jinbuba powder price difference was 144 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 7 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás fines + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) price difference was - 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of - 1 yuan/ton [19][22]. - Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel: The pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous period. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous period. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,285 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 80 yuan/ton. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,140 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of + 30 yuan/ton [25]. - Profit: The steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, a week - on - week change of + 3.47 percentage points; the PB powder import profit was - 4.74 yuan/wet ton [28]. - Freight: Information about international Baltic dry bulk shipping index and freight rates per country is presented in the figures but no summary data is given in the text. 3.3 Inventory - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 137.9038 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.0517 million tons. The pellet inventory was 390,290 tons, a week - on - week change of - 29,060 tons. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 1.0815 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 950 tons. The lump ore inventory at ports was 1.6825 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 87,250 tons. The Australian ore port inventory was 61.9325 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.7543 million tons. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 47.786 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.5763 million tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.88522 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.06306 million tons [35][38][41][45]. 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Volume: The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China through 19 ports was 13.854 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.015 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 9.078 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.974 million tons. Rio Tinto's shipment volume to China was 4.571 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.514 million tons. BHP's shipment volume to China was 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.755 million tons. Vale's shipment volume was 6.856 million tons, a week - on - week change of + 0.677 million tons. FMG's shipment volume to China was 2.79 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.79 million tons [50][53][56]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.712 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 2.909 million tons. The non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore import volume in China in June was 15.4151 million tons, a month - on - month change of - 2.6103 million tons [59]. - Domestic Mines: The domestic mine capacity utilization rate was 61.51%, a week - on - week change of + 0.57 percentage points. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 48,030 tons, a week - on - week change of + 450 tons [65]. 3.5 Demand Side - Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization: The domestic daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0021 million tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a week - on - week change of - 0.08 percentage points [70]. - Port Clearance and Steel Mill Consumption: The daily average port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.1515 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0759 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 3.011 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 0.0015 million tons [73]. 3.6 Basis - As of July 25, the calculated iron ore IOC6 basis was 46.13 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 5.44% [78].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices have shown a short-term rebound while the long-term supply and demand remain relatively loose [1] Supply Summary - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.87 million tons this period, a decrease of 80,000 tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and non-mainstream shipments decreased, while Brazilian shipments increased [1] - Iron ore arrivals at 45 ports reached 26.62 million tons, an increase of 1.78 million tons week-on-week [1] Demand Summary - A survey of 247 steel mills indicated a blast furnace operating rate of 83.46%, up 0.31% week-on-week and 0.83% year-on-year [1] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week and 1.27% year-on-year [1] - Steel mill profit margins were at 60.17%, up 0.43% week-on-week and 28.14% year-on-year [1] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.4244 million tons, an increase of 26,300 tons week-on-week and 2.79% year-on-year [1] Inventory Summary - Total iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 137.85 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons week-on-week [1] - Daily average iron ore throughput at 45 ports was 3.2274 million tons, an increase of 32,300 tons week-on-week [1] Overall Market Outlook - The global shipment volume has slightly decreased while arrivals have increased; pig iron production is at a historical high, indicating resilient iron ore consumption [1] - Attention is needed on the intensity of steel consumption during the off-season [1] - The short-term price rebound is supported by macro sentiment and fundamentals, while the long-term outlook remains in a loose supply-demand balance [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals shows mixed performance, with iron ore futures experiencing a strong upward trend, reaching a high of 770.0 yuan/ton and a gain of 2.07% [1] - Supply is rebounding while iron and steel production is seasonally weakening, leading to increased inventory at ports, which raises the risk of overvaluation for iron ore [1] - The recent increase in iron ore prices is supported by macroeconomic factors, with expectations of continued high-level fluctuations in prices [1] Group 2 - Demand for iron ore remains resilient due to profit-driven raw material needs, despite a current decline in iron and steel production [2] - Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly [2] - The short-term macro outlook is strong, with attention on the continued export of steel billets and the positive feedback effect on raw materials [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a weakening supply - demand pattern, with the price of iron ore expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term view on the iron ore 2509 contract is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be in a state of oscillation, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillating. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern leading to a weakly oscillating ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of iron ore have weakened. During the off - season, more steel mills are undergoing inspections, and the terminal consumption of ore has begun to decline but remains at a high level for the year, providing some support for the ore price. At the same time, port arrivals have increased, but miners' shipments have continued to decrease significantly. After the end of the fiscal year, overseas ore supply has significantly shrunk, and domestic ore production has stabilized, resulting in a contraction of ore supply. After the "exemption period" ends, tariff disturbances have reappeared, weakening market sentiment. With the supply - demand dual - weak situation, the iron ore fundamentals are weakly stable, and the short - term ore price is likely to be under pressure and oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [3].

Group 1 - Global iron ore shipments totaled 29.949 million tons from June 30 to July 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.627 million tons compared to the previous period [1] - Shipments from Australia and Brazil amounted to 24.650 million tons, down 4.173 million tons, with Australia contributing 18.026 million tons, a decrease of 1.964 million tons [1] - The average daily shipment from Brazil was 1.8167 million tons, an increase of 9.77% compared to July of the previous year [1] Group 2 - The current iron ore fundamentals are acceptable, but futures valuations are significantly high, indicating a risk of decline if spot strength does not keep up [2] - Recent iron ore prices have been influenced by market sentiment, with both global shipments and arrivals declining, yet remaining at relatively high levels compared to previous years [3] - The long-term outlook suggests a gradual recovery in supply, relatively low demand, and a shift towards inventory accumulation at ports, maintaining an oversupply situation in the iron ore market [3]