Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" based on the analysis of its performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail value growth of 13% year-on-year for FY26Q1, with same-store sales increasing by 5%. The proportion of retail value from priced gold increased from 12% to 17% compared to the same period last year, with same-store growth of 73% [1][2]. - The recovery in sales growth in mainland China reached nearly 20%, with retail value growth of 14% in FY26Q1. Self-operated stores outperformed brand stores, with self-operated retail income growing by 31% and same-store growth of 19% [2][3]. - The company aims for a net increase of 72 stores globally in FY2026, with a target of 50 new stores in mainland China, primarily expected to be achieved in the second half of the fiscal year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are estimated at HKD 15,284 million, HKD 17,180 million, and HKD 18,740 million, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be HKD 1,505 million, HKD 1,731 million, and HKD 1,980 million, with growth rates of 37%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 2.56, HKD 2.95, and HKD 3.37 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [3][6].

Core Viewpoint - Lucky Coffee aims to expand aggressively into high-tier cities, targeting a total of 10,000 stores by 2025, with a current count of nearly 7,000 stores, primarily in lower-tier cities [5][6]. Expansion Strategy - Lucky Coffee has adjusted its expansion strategy to focus on first and second-tier cities, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, with commercial streets as key locations [5]. - The brand's previous focus was on lower-tier markets, with approximately 70% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below as of 2024 [5]. Market Positioning - Lucky Coffee differentiates itself from competitors by maintaining a price point of 6-8 yuan, which is perceived as a real price rather than a subsidized one, thus ensuring profitability [5][6]. - The company benefits from its affiliation with Mixue Ice Cream, allowing for unified sourcing of raw materials and shared logistics, which enhances its competitive edge [6]. Product Strategy - Lucky Coffee has introduced a range of products priced between 6-8 yuan, including 14 new fruit coffee options, signaling its intent to penetrate the first-tier city market [7]. - The brand is also focusing on promoting its "American-style coffee" priced at 5.9 yuan, which has become one of its top-selling products [7]. Competitive Landscape - The coffee market is experiencing intense competition, with major players like Luckin Coffee, Kudi, and others ramping up their store expansion plans [8]. - For instance, Luckin Coffee has increased its store opening target from 4,000 to 8,000 for the year, while Gu Ming has raised its target from 1,000 to 3,000 [8]. Operational Insights - Lucky Coffee's average daily revenue per store reached a peak of 5,732 yuan during a recent promotional event, although the company remains focused on in-store consumption rather than delivery services [7]. - The company has recently launched a new roasting line in Hainan, which is the largest for Mixue Group, enhancing its production capacity [7].

Core Viewpoint - Lucky Coffee is aggressively expanding its presence in high-tier cities, aiming for a total of 10,000 stores by 2025, with a current count of nearly 7,000 stores, primarily in lower-tier cities [3][4]. Expansion Strategy - The company is shifting its focus to first and second-tier cities, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, with commercial streets as key expansion points [3]. - Lucky Coffee's previous strategy concentrated on lower-tier markets, with approximately 70% of its stores located in third-tier cities and below as of 2024 [3]. Financial Performance and Goals - The target of 10,000 stores by 2025 represents a 150% increase in store count from the previous year [3]. - The company experienced a slowdown in store expansion after reaching 2,300 stores in 2022, but resumed growth in 2024, surpassing 4,000 stores by year-end [3]. Competitive Advantages - Lucky Coffee differentiates itself from competitors by maintaining a real price model without heavy subsidies, allowing for profitability despite competitive pricing [4]. - The company benefits from its affiliation with Mixue Ice Cream, which provides unified sourcing of raw materials and shared logistics, enhancing its supply chain efficiency [5]. Market Trends - The coffee market in China is becoming increasingly homogenized, with major brands like Starbucks and Luckin Coffee penetrating lower-tier cities, reducing the gap in consumer perception of coffee [5]. - Lucky Coffee has introduced new products, including 14 types of fruit coffee priced between 6-8 yuan, signaling its intent to compete in higher-tier markets [5]. Industry Competition - The coffee sector is expected to see intensified competition in 2023, with major players like Luckin Coffee and others ramping up their store expansion plans significantly [6].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts conducted an on-site survey of Lao Pu Gold's Singapore Marina Bay Sands store, revealing that its performance exceeded expectations, with high foot traffic and a conversion rate above 95% [1][3]. Group 1: Store Performance - The Singapore store opened on June 21, with weekend wait times reaching 2-3 hours and weekday wait times of 1-1.5 hours [3]. - The store's sales conversion rate is over 95%, with 4-10 transactions per hour, and customers spend an average of 1 hour engaging with the brand and products [3]. - Approximately 95% of customers are local, with 50% being Chinese residents and 40% local Singaporeans, while 90% are first-time customers of the Lao Pu Gold brand [4]. Group 2: Pricing and Service Standards - Product pricing in the Singapore store is consistent with domestic prices, with differences of only 0.1%-0.9% for most items, and a 10% opening discount is offered [5]. - The store replicates the service standards of domestic flagship stores, including well-trained sales consultants and premium service offerings [8]. Group 3: Strategic Location and Expansion Plans - The store's location is strategically significant, situated opposite the MBS casino and near other luxury brands, with extended operating hours to accommodate high customer traffic [10]. - Lao Pu Gold plans to establish an independent membership system in Singapore and retain a 5% discount for mainland customers, with intentions to open more stores in Southeast Asia [10]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Morgan Stanley raised Lao Pu Gold's target price from HKD 1,149 to HKD 1,249, maintaining a buy rating, and expects a compound annual growth rate of 68% in sales and 76% in net profit from 2025 to 2027 [2]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been significantly increased, with expected sales growth of 155% and net profit growth of 181% in 2025 [13]. - The company is projected to achieve a same-store sales growth of 115% and a store expansion growth of 22% [13]. Group 5: Stock Performance - As of June 26, Lao Pu Gold's stock price was HKD 868.5, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 259% [15].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for Lao Pu Gold to HKD 1,090, reflecting strong sales and expansion prospects, with expected net profit growth of nearly 2.2 times and 39% over the next two years [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Target Price Adjustment - Goldman Sachs increased the target price for Lao Pu Gold from HKD 976 to HKD 1,090, corresponding to a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times for the fiscal year 2027, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Earnings Forecast - The firm forecasts earnings per share for Lao Pu Gold to be CNY 27.6, CNY 37.99, and CNY 45.9 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, translating to price-to-earnings ratios of 29.2, 21.2, and 17.6 for the same years [1] Net Profit Projections - Goldman Sachs has raised its net profit estimates for Lao Pu Gold for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to CNY 4.706 billion, CNY 6.56 billion, and CNY 7.925 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 219%, 39%, and 21% respectively [1] Sales Performance - The company has experienced strong online and offline sales, with store expansion exceeding expectations, driven by successful new product lines such as "Seven Sons Gourd" [1]

Core Viewpoint - Baba Food, known as the "first stock of buns," is facing challenges with declining store revenue and high closure rates, despite plans to open 1,000 new stores this year and pursue investment and acquisition projects to enhance market share [1][10]. Financial Performance - Baba Food's revenue for 2022-2024 is projected at 1.525 billion, 1.630 billion, and 1.671 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.88%, 6.89%, and 2.53% respectively. Net profit for the same period is expected to be 223 million, 213.7 million, and 277 million yuan, with growth rates of -29.06%, -4.04%, and 29.42% [3][4]. - In Q1 of this year, Baba Food's revenue increased by 4.45% to 370 million yuan, while net profit decreased by 6.13% to 37 million yuan, attributed to stock fluctuations in Dongpeng Beverage [3][4]. Store Operations - Baba Food has maintained an annual opening of over 1,000 stores in the past three years, but the number of closures has significantly increased, with over 900 stores closed last year. The total number of stores only grew by 100 due to high closure rates [1][3]. - The average revenue per franchise store has declined from 254,500 yuan in 2022 to 242,300 yuan in 2024, contributing to the high closure rate of franchise stores [5][6]. Revenue Sources - In 2024, revenue from franchise stores is expected to decrease by 0.42% to 1.246 billion yuan, accounting for 74.57% of total revenue. Direct store revenue is projected to drop by 22.83% to 21.02 million yuan, while group meal sales are expected to grow by 15.31% to 380 million yuan, making up 22.74% of total revenue [4][6]. Market Strategy - Baba Food plans to open 1,000 new stores this year through both organic growth and acquisitions, including a partnership with Qinglu to enhance its brand presence [10][11]. - The company aims to stabilize single-store revenue by implementing a fresh food strategy, optimizing store layouts, and enhancing marketing efforts [10][11]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment has intensified, with a notable increase in the number of small restaurants entering the bun market, leading to higher closure rates among franchisees [11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its initial coverage [10]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a projected revenue of 4.314 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 41% [6][12]. - The net profit is expected to recover to 0.552 billion yuan in 2024, compared to a loss of 0.27 billion yuan in 2023, indicating a significant turnaround [6][12]. - The company is expanding rapidly, with plans to open 300 new stores in 2025, contributing to its growth strategy [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 72.88%, with a decrease in raw material costs to 27.12% [6]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase to 1.28% in 2024, up by 2 percentage points from the previous year [6]. Market Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company plans to increase its store count to 1,008, with significant growth in new markets [7]. - The average daily sales per store are expected to reach 13,100 yuan, driven by a 10% increase in daily order volume [7]. Future Projections - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 1.13 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 78 [10][12]. - Revenue is projected to grow to 5.666 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 31.34% [12].

Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, the total number of global stores reached 6,681, with a quarterly GMV of 8.23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38% [1] - Total net revenue for the quarter was 3.39 billion yuan, an increase of 35.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 677 million yuan, up 13.8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit margin for the first quarter was 20%, remaining stable compared to the full-year net profit margin of 20.3% in 2024 [1] Store Expansion - The company added 241 new stores in the first quarter, with a total increase of 2,598 stores compared to the same period last year [1] - The Chinese market accounted for 6,512 stores, while there were 169 overseas stores [1] Membership Growth - Approximately 15 million new members were added in the first quarter, bringing the total registered members to 192.4 million, a year-on-year increase of 109.6% [1] - The number of active users for the quarter was 44.9 million [1] International Expansion - The overseas market GMV reached 178 million yuan in the first quarter, marking an 85.3% year-on-year growth [1] - The company opened 13 new overseas stores, totaling 169 overseas locations, with 157 in Malaysia, 10 in Singapore, and 2 in Thailand [1] Strategic Partnerships and New Openings - The flagship store in Indonesia opened on April 11, with 11,000 cups sold within the first three days [2] - A strategic partnership was established with Magma Group in Malaysia to open 300 new stores over the next three years [2] - The first North American store opened in Los Angeles, selling over 5,000 cups on its opening day [2] Internal Management Initiatives - As of April 2025, the "Night Clean Plan" has been implemented in over 1,100 stores across 60 cities, benefiting 16,000 store employees [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 18.18 CNY [3] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term profit pressure due to rapid store expansion and integration, with a focus on expanding into provinces outside of its traditional markets and into county-level cities [7] - The company reported a revenue of 18.00 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, but a significant decline in net profit attributable to the parent company, which was 114 million CNY, down 79.23% year-on-year [7] - The company aims to enhance its operational efficiency as it expands its store network, which totaled 11,498 stores by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,243 stores during the year [7] Financial Information Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023A: 17,380 million CNY - 2024A: 18,000 million CNY (3.6% growth) - 2025E: 19,512 million CNY (8.4% growth) - 2026E: 21,476 million CNY (10.1% growth) - 2027E: 23,919 million CNY (11.4% growth) [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to recover significantly by 2025, reaching 594 million CNY, a 420.4% increase from 2024 [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast is as follows: - 2023A: 0.94 CNY - 2024A: 0.19 CNY - 2025E: 1.01 CNY - 2026E: 1.28 CNY - 2027E: 1.39 CNY [2] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 33.0% by 2027, with a slight dip to 31.8% in 2024 [2] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of May 21, 2025, was 17.19 CNY, with a 52-week high of 22.73 CNY and a low of 10.84 CNY [3] - The company has shown a strong absolute performance over the past week and month, with increases of 24.03% and 31.72% respectively [4]

以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者钟艺璇 马来西亚之外，霸王茶姬出海多点开花。 文 ｜ 钟艺璇 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 来源｜ 36氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ 品牌官方 36氪独家获悉，霸王茶姬2025年门店扩张具体目标为——中国内地1000+家，中国香港50家，东南亚地区100+家，美国10家。 对此，霸王茶姬官方回应称：不予置评。 此前，霸王茶姬曾在招股书内披露过2025年全球门店增长目标，即在中国和全球范围内新开1000至1500家门店。按照前述地区划 分目标，不难看出，中国内地仍旧是霸王茶姬2025年门店增长的主要力量，只是1000 家的增速对比过去明显下滑，仅有16%。 2023、2024年霸王茶姬中国内地门店数量同比增速分别为218%、82%。 2025年，霸王茶姬也终于开始在马来西亚之外的全球门店集中发力，但增长目标相对保守。 36氪未来消费 . 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 目前来看，香港市场在霸王茶姬今年的扩张目标中，格外突出。香港的国际化程度较高，其地理位置也决定了此地拥有供应链优 势，是一个走向全球化的跳板。霸王茶姬在香港的野心早有外露。早在去年霸王茶姬开香 ...