Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions, impacting its safe-haven demand, with market focus shifting to upcoming U.S. economic indicators and Federal Reserve officials' speeches [1][2]. Economic Indicators - The market anticipates a 0.2% month-over-month increase in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a 2.8% year-over-year increase, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year [2]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 0.33% month-over-month increase in core CPI for July, aligning with market expectations, while overall CPI is projected to rise by 0.27% [2]. - Bank of America predicts a 0.24% month-over-month increase in overall CPI and a 0.31% increase in core CPI for July, which could elevate the core CPI year-over-year growth from 2.9% to 3.1% [2]. Market Impact - If CPI data exceeds expectations, the U.S. dollar may strengthen further, putting additional downward pressure on gold prices; conversely, weaker data or renewed geopolitical risks could enhance gold's appeal as a safe haven [2]. Technical Analysis - A closing price below $3,300 for gold could shift the outlook to bearish, while a breakout above the $3,400 resistance level may pave the way for new historical highs [3]. - Current support levels for gold are around $3,365, followed by $3,350 and $3,335, with $3,300 being a critical short-term level [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trade policy uncertainties and expectations of Fed rate cuts support the strong performance of precious metals. Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted, and it is expected to continue the long - and medium - term bull market. However, price volatility has increased [4][5]. - In the short term, London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce, waiting for the next breakthrough. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's tariff policies and Fed officials' support for rate cuts drive precious metals up. London gold approaches $3400 per ounce. It is recommended to hold a long - position mindset and participate with medium - to - low positions. This week, focus on China's July foreign trade, price, and financial data, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and US trade tariff policies [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 786.70, up 0.17%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9275, up 0.82%; Gold T + D closed at 782.00, up 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 9224, up 0.83% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. Uncertainties in Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to pre - April levels. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - 3500 per ounce range. Investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings [7][9]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump may meet with Putin next week, and the US plans to impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US will impose about 100% tariffs on imported semiconductor chips [17]. - Trump imposes an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods. Modi will visit China on August 31, indicating a thaw in India - China diplomacy [17]. - Some Fed policymakers are worried about the US job market and economic slowdown. Kashkari believes there will be two rate cuts this year, Daly thinks the Fed will need to cut rates soon, and Cook is concerned about the latest job market data [18].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold's safe - haven demand is greatly boosted by Trump's 2.0 new policy which accelerates the global political and economic restructuring. Gold's medium - term upward trend remains good, with London gold likely to trade in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the need for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's multiple reforms lead to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations, supporting the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high gold prices also mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. Short - term, London gold is expected to continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Overnight news was stable. The dollar index rebounded slightly, and gold prices oscillated after a sharp rise on Friday. London gold traded between $3340 - $3385 per ounce for two consecutive days. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, followed the A - share and other industrial metals higher due to Fed interest - rate cut expectations [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been trading in the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainties and geopolitical risks supported the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets. The gold - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods due to India's large - scale oil purchases from Russia. India will take measures to safeguard its interests. Switzerland is seeking to avoid a 39% US import tariff on its goods [17]. - San Francisco Fed President Daly said that the time for an interest - rate cut is approaching as the US job market is weakening and there are no signs of continuous inflation caused by tariffs [17]. - The CEO of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group said that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October due to reduced trade - related uncertainties and relatively high domestic inflation pressure [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to weak U.S. economic data, rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and increased global trade tensions, leading to heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][3][4] - On August 5, spot gold prices broke through $3390 and are currently trading around $3380.79 per ounce, reflecting a continuation of the upward trend from August 4, driven by various economic factors [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed a slight increase of 0.06% to 98.73, but concerns about the U.S. economic outlook persist, impacting its performance [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold is in a strong bullish phase, with a potential upward movement towards resistance levels of $3460-$3470. The weekly chart shows a long lower shadow indicating a stabilization signal [3] - The daily trend is also bullish, with the price having tested resistance levels of $3450-$3430 multiple times, indicating a high probability of a breakout on the fourth attempt [3] - Short-term trading strategies recommend focusing on buying during pullbacks, with resistance levels at $3400-$3410 and support levels at $3360-$3350 [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The continuous rise in the gold market is attributed to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, global trade conflicts, and geopolitical risks [3] - Weak U.S. economic data supports the case for rate cuts, while low yields and a weak dollar enhance gold's appeal [3] - Trump's tariff policies and increasing geopolitical tensions have heightened market uncertainty, boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is currently trading around $3372.63, with potential testing of the $3360 support level [4] - The resistance level is identified at $3387.85, which corresponds to a 61.8% retracement level from a previous low of $3269, indicating possible deep corrections or trend reversals [4] - If gold prices successfully break above the resistance, they may test the yearly high of $3500 [4] Group 3: Short-term Trading Strategies - The key support for gold is noted at $3360, and maintaining this level is crucial for a bullish outlook [6] - A breakthrough above $3385 could provide further buying opportunities, with targets set at $3384, $3392, and $3402 [6] - Current trading strategies suggest maintaining long positions as long as the price holds above the critical support level [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International oil prices have stabilized after three consecutive days of decline, with Brent crude at $68.76 and WTI at $66.27 [12] - Concerns over OPEC+ potentially increasing production by 547,000 barrels per day may lead to oversupply, countering support from Russian supply disruptions [12] - The technical outlook for WTI shows significant downward pressure, with prices hovering around $66 and failing to maintain support from moving averages [12] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The oil market is currently in a "supply-demand expectation tug-of-war," with OPEC+ decisions potentially lowering prices while geopolitical pressures from the U.S. may limit supply [15] - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, with September being a critical turning point for the market [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised not to go full - long or blindly short, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chairman Powell indicated that more time was needed to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The better - than - expected US second - quarter GDP and June ADP private employment data cooled the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index tested the 100 mark. London gold once fell to $3267 per ounce, but then rebounded to around $3300 per ounce due to Trump's tariff threats. Silver with strong industrial attributes fell below the $37 per ounce mark [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - to - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Powell's remarks reduced the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September from nearly 70% to less than 50%. Two Fed governors appointed by Trump opposed the decision [19]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 1st and mentioned a fine for India without details. India is studying the impact and aims for a fair trade agreement. Trump also said the deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners will not be extended this Friday [19]. - The US second - quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, this indicator exaggerated the economic health as the decline in imports was the main reason for the improvement, and domestic demand growth was the slowest in two and a half years [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policy and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, while the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill reduce the demand for gold as a hedge and for allocation. The report expects the long - term and medium - term bull markets of gold to continue, but the price volatility will increase significantly. It is recommended that investors participate in trading with a long - term mindset and medium - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - **Intraday Trends**: Due to Trump's threat to Russia and the lack of breakthroughs in the China - US - Sweden economic and trade meeting, the US dollar index pulled back slightly after reaching 99, and London gold rebounded to around $3330 per ounce. The Politburo meeting's lack of specific deployment on anti - involution made silver, which has strong industrial attributes, relatively weak. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading. This week, attention should be paid to economic and trade talks, central bank meetings, and important economic data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 775.25, up 0.29% with an open interest of 424,176 and an increase of 3248; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9,205, down 0.03% with an open interest of 835,724 and a decrease of 10,841; Gold T + D closed at 769.40, up 0.29% with an open interest of 214,988 and an increase of 8030; Silver T + D closed at 9,166, up 0.03% with an open interest of 3,535,666 and an increase of 30,532 [5]. - **Medium - term Trends**: Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The inflow of speculative funds into the silver and platinum markets in June has brought the gold - silver ratio back to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to maintain a long - term mindset and use medium - low positions to participate in trading [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **China - US Economic and Trade Talks**: China and the US held a two - day constructive meeting in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce, but no major breakthroughs were announced, and whether to extend the truce will be decided by President Trump [18]. - **IMF's Global Economic Growth Forecast**: The International Monetary Fund slightly raised its global economic growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 3.0% and 3.1% respectively, but warned that the global economy still faces significant risks [18]. - **Trump's Statement on Russia**: Trump said that if Russia shows no progress in ending the Ukraine war, the US will impose tariffs and other measures on Russia 10 days after July 29 [18]. - **China's PV Industry Association**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a clarification statement, indicating that recent news about anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry, especially in the polysilicon sector, does not match the actual situation [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the improvement of market risk - appetite, the global major stock index futures and non - US currencies generally rebounded, leading to a slowdown in gold's safe - haven demand. The median forecast from a Reuters survey of 40 analysts and traders raised the 2025 gold price from $3,065 to $3,220 per ounce and expected it to reach $3,400 in 2026 [2]. - The $3300 level of the outer - market gold price may form strong support. Central bank gold - buying demand remains the cornerstone of gold demand, with China having increased its gold reserves for eight consecutive months, and nearly 40% of central banks considering geopolitical risks as an important reason to increase gold positions [2]. - Trump's threat of sanctions on Russia's oil exports due to the Ukraine war led to a 2.3% increase in Brent crude to $69.90 per barrel, indicating that geopolitical risks are still high and providing side - support for gold [2]. - Future Fed policy expectations, PCE inflation, and non - farm payroll data are potential driving factors. If the expectation of two or more interest rate cuts within the year is consolidated, it will provide solid medium - term support for the gold price. A significant shortfall in subsequent PCE growth may boost the gold price in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 771.44 yuan/gram, down 3.34 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 9195 yuan/kg, down 17 yuan [2]. - **Positions**: The main - contract holding volume of Shanghai gold was 212,407 lots, an increase of 2,732 lots; that of Shanghai silver was 392,743 lots, a decrease of 5,678 lots. The top 20 net positions of the Shanghai gold main contract were 155,575 lots, a decrease of 1,058 lots; those of Shanghai silver were 128,368 lots, a decrease of 781 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt quantity of gold was 31,263 kg, an increase of 1,005 kg; that of silver was 1,204,866 kg, a decrease of 3,403 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 767.04 yuan/gram, down 3.15 yuan; the silver spot price was 9146 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.4 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.19 yuan; that of the Shanghai silver main contract was - 49 yuan/kg, an increase of 17 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 956.23 tons, down 0.86 tons; silver ETF holdings were 15,159.79 tons, down 70.64 tons [2]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: The weekly non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC were 253,038 contracts, an increase of 39,923 contracts; those of silver were 60,620 contracts, an increase of 1,172 contracts [2]. - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 12.24%, an increase of 0.06%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.76%, a decrease of 0.19% [2]. - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 20.34%, a decrease of 0.73%; that of at - the - money put options was 20.35%, a decrease of 0.73% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - **Trade and Politics**: Trump may impose a 15% - 20% uniform tariff on imports from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. Sino - US high - level officials restarted tariff negotiations in Stockholm, aiming to extend the August 12 tariff truce by 90 days. The EU and the US reached an important agreement, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment weakened [2]. - **Geopolitics**: Thailand and Cambodia reached a cease - fire agreement, reducing geopolitical risks. However, Trump expressed disappointment with Putin again, and there were still frictions after the temporary cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine [2]. - **Central Bank Policy**: The European Central Bank's hawkish official Kazimir said that the bank is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again, and the reason for action in September is not sufficient unless there is a major unexpected economic turn [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and currency system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in Q3 should be noted. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions [6]. - In the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Traders with a bearish view can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: After Trump's meeting with Fed Chairman Powell, market concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal discipline eased. Also, the trade situation improved, reducing the safe - haven demand. London gold fell from $3430 to around $3310 per ounce, and silver, with strong industrial attributes, also declined. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to important economic events and data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.35, down 0.30%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9225, down 1.89%; Gold T + D closed at 771.60, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9187, down 1.97% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macro Events/Data - The US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, with a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the threatened rate. The EU plans to invest about $600 billion in the US and increase purchases of US energy and military equipment [17]. - Thailand and Cambodia will hold a mediation meeting on border conflicts in Malaysia, with Thailand's acting prime minister and Cambodia's prime minister attending [17]. - The US government will announce the results of a national security investigation on semiconductor imports in two weeks [17]. - US core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined in June, but shipments increased slightly, indicating a significant slowdown in business equipment spending in Q2 [17].

基本面： 周一（7月28日）亚盘时段，现货黄金小幅低开后守住此前跌幅表现清淡，盘中最低测试至3319.12美元/盎司，目前暂交投于3333美元附近。因美国和欧洲 达成贸易协议，令黄金避险需求进一步下降，但金价仍受到部分逢低买盘支撑，因美元走强、美欧贸易协议的乐观情绪的压制，上周五金价收跌近1%，为 连续三个交易日下跌，收报3336.49美元/盎司。 上周，美元指数从逾两周低点反弹，显著推高了黄金对海外买家的成本。美元的走强不仅源于美国经济数据的稳健表现，还得益于市场对美欧贸易谈判乐观 情绪的消化。尽管短期内受到经济数据和贸易协议预期的支撑，美元在过去一周仍录得一个月来最大单周跌幅。美国股市标普 500 指数和纳斯达克指数上周 五创下收盘纪录新高，受助于对美国可能很快与欧盟达成贸易协议的乐观情绪。欧盟执委会主席冯德莱恩于周日在苏格兰与美国总统特朗普会晤。此前，欧 盟官员和外交官表示，美欧预计周末将达成一项框架贸易协议。特朗普此前表示，与欧盟达成贸易协议的可能性为"50%"。 当地时间7月27日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与欧盟达成15%税率的关税协议。特朗普表示，欧盟将比此前增加对美国投资6000亿美元，欧盟将 ...