1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's concern about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline has resurfaced. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. Gold's safe - haven demand is strongly boosted, and its volatility has increased while the medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Trump fired Fed Governor Cook on suspicion of mortgage law violations, and Cook vowed to fight back, which raised market concerns about the loss of control over US fiscal and financial discipline. The Fed may restart the interest - rate cut process in September, with a relatively moderate pace. London gold failed to break through the $3400 per ounce mark and then pulled back, but the support level in the pull - back is gradually rising. Trump's new policies are accelerating the restructuring of the global political and economic landscape, boosting gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, and it is expected to trade in a wide range between $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again. This week, attention should be paid to Fed officials' statements, US July PCE prices, China's August PMI, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to now, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The reduction in international trade uncertainty weakens gold's safe - haven demand, but the restructuring of the international trade currency system and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations continue to support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets. In July, the silver price fluctuated significantly due to the expectation of anti - involution policies, and the London gold - silver ratio stabilized slightly after falling to 86. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expected economic slowdown and central bank interest - rate cuts will support the long - and medium - term bull markets of gold. However, the high price and P/E ratio also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range. The central bank's easing expectations may support the silver price in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and avoid full - position chasing or blind short - selling [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T+D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Fed Governor Cook will sue to prevent Trump from firing her, which may lead to a long - term legal battle. Trump wants to quickly announce a candidate to replace Cook, with potential candidates including White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan and former World Bank President Malpass [17]. - US new orders for key capital goods in July increased more than expected, indicating strong business equipment spending at the beginning of the third quarter. However, consumers' assessment of the labor market has deteriorated, with the August consumer expectation for their job - seeking ability dropping to the lowest level in more than four years [17]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin predicts a moderate interest - rate adjustment, expecting no major changes in economic activity for the rest of the year [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices and the implications of U.S. inflation trends, suggesting that gold may serve as a safe haven amid economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations [1][5][6]. Gold Market Analysis - On Wednesday, international spot gold opened at $3,315.16, reaching a high of $3,349.89 and a low of $3,311.19, closing at $3,347.95, marking an increase of $32.92 or 0.99% [1]. - The Wellxin precious metals index opened at 6,806.38 points, peaked at 6,907.01 points, and closed at 6,892.13 points, up 83.38 points or 1.22% [4]. - The article identifies a "super depressed repair" characteristic in gold prices, indicating a potential short-term buying opportunity as prices are expected to recover from recent declines [4][5]. U.S. Dollar and Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index opened at 98.28 points, with a high of 98.43 and a low of 98.07, closing at 98.22, down 0.05% [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent minutes highlighted concerns over economic, employment, and real estate market declines, alongside rising inflation risks, which may enhance demand for gold as a safe haven [5][7]. Inflation Expectations - The Federal Reserve anticipates that tariffs will push inflation higher this year, with further upward pressure expected in 2026, and a return to 2% inflation projected for 2027 [6]. - The article suggests that a potential economic crisis could lead to a significant drop in demand, ultimately causing inflation to fall below 2% [6]. Technical Analysis - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring gold prices in relation to a mid-term strong convergence triangle trend line, suggesting that a breakout could occur soon [10]. - The analysis indicates that the current market conditions may lead to a significant upward movement in gold prices, especially if inflation continues to rise [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent statements from U.S. President Trump regarding the potential for peace in the Ukraine conflict may weaken the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to downward pressure on gold prices [2] - The current spot gold price is around $3317, reflecting a continuation of the downward trend from the previous day, influenced by a rising U.S. dollar index and positive developments in international talks [1] - The geopolitical situation creates a dual role for gold; while easing tensions may reduce its demand, any breakdown in negotiations or escalation in tariffs could reignite safe-haven buying, supporting gold prices [2] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are expected to remain volatile, with short-term resistance at the $3345 level and key support levels identified below [3] - The market is advised to focus on the $3330 level for potential buying opportunities, while monitoring the resistance at $3345 and $3358-$3360 for breakout scenarios [3] - A significant drop below the support levels of $3315 or $3300 could lead to further testing of these lower boundaries before any potential rebound [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Report - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - Due to the US July PPI exceeding market expectations and officials' statements, market expectations for a 50BP Fed rate cut in September have cooled. London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz. Trump's new policies boost gold's safe - haven demand. Gold volatility is rising, and the medium - term upward trend remains good. It may fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz before rising again. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions [4]. - From late April to now, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz. Uncertainty in international trade has decreased, but currency system restructuring and Fed rate - cut expectations support the price. Speculative funds entered the silver and platinum markets in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86. The long - term bull market in gold is supported by currency system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market by economic weakness and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also mean high volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to fluctuate between $3120 - $3500/oz. Central bank easing may support silver prices in the medium - to - short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with low - to - medium positions, avoiding full - position chasing and blind short - selling [5]. Group 4: Section Summaries Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Quotes**: London gold rose and then fell below $3350/oz due to PPI data and officials' statements. Trump's policies boost gold's safe - haven demand [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Quotes**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 777.63, down 0.36%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9222, down 0.89%; Gold T + D closed at 773.09, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9188, down 0.93% [5]. - **Medium - term Quotes**: London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500/oz since late April. International trade uncertainty has decreased, but currency system restructuring and rate - cut expectations support the price. The gold - to - silver ratio has stabilized after回调 to 86 [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11] Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase in three years, dispelling expectations of a 50BP rate cut in September [17]. - US Treasury Secretary said conditions are favorable for a 25BP rate cut first and then acceleration. Some Fed officials said a 50BP rate cut in September does not match the current economic situation [17]. - Trump said he believes Putin is ready to end the war in Ukraine, and Putin praised US efforts and proposed a nuclear arms control agreement [17]

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with July CPI showing moderate inflation pressure, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September to as high as 95% probability, but the July PPI reported the largest increase in three years, dampening those expectations [2][3] - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin lasted 2.5 hours but did not result in a final agreement to end the conflict, with both leaders indicating progress but lacking concrete outcomes [2] Market Impact - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a key catalyst for the doubling of gold prices since late 2022, and any signs of a ceasefire could reduce gold's safe-haven demand, leading to significant price volatility in the short term [3] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve will remain a focal point, with the July meeting minutes to be released and the annual global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled for August 21-23, where Fed Chair Powell's speech will be particularly significant [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a downward trend since reaching a high of 3500, currently undergoing a 4th wave adjustment phase, with the price fluctuating within a broad range [6] - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a 4th wave adjustment, with recent movements reflecting profit-taking and market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution [7] - On the hourly chart, gold is currently in the C-3 wave of a downward trend, with critical support levels to watch for potential further declines [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic situation will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio lead to increased volatility. It is expected that London gold will run in the range in the short - term and then break through. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions, and short - term traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [4][5]. - In the short - term, due to factors such as inflation data and Fed officials' attitudes, gold's volatility has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: In July, US overall CPI was lower than expected, but core CPI was higher. The US Treasury Secretary called for a 50BP rate cut in September. The Fed's rate - cut expectation pushed the dollar index down to around 97.6 and London gold rebounded to $3375 per ounce. However, two Fed officials' cautious attitudes led to a gold price correction. Trump's new policy boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility increased, and it's recommended to trade with a long - term view and medium - low positions. This week, focus on the US - Russia summit, US inflation data, Fed officials' statements, and China's economic data [4]. - **Domestic Market Data**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 780.46, up 0.13%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9305, down 0.13%; Gold T+D closed at 775.06, up 0.05%; Silver T+D closed at 9270, down 0.09% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks supported it. Fed's rate - cut expectation rose due to the nomination of new Fed governors and a weak employment market. Speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum in June, and silver prices fluctuated in July. The gold - silver ratio in London stabilized after falling to 86. It's expected that London gold will continue to run in the range in the short - term [5]. 3.2. Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides six charts including Shanghai precious metals futures indices, London precious metals spot prices, basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold TD, precious metals ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump threatened Putin over the Ukraine issue and may hold a US - Russia - Ukraine summit. The US Treasury Secretary said sanctions might increase if the US - Russia summit goes badly and called on Europe to impose sanctions [8]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: After US July inflation data, the market thought the probability of a 25BP rate cut in September was 99.9%. The Treasury Secretary thought a 50BP cut was possible, and Trump was narrowing down the candidates for the next Fed Chair [8]. - **Fed Officials' Views**: Chicago Fed President Goolsbee was worried about inflation and labor market assumptions, and needed multiple months of good inflation data to support rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Bostic thought the job market was close to full - employment, and the Fed should avoid policy volatility [9]. - **Economic Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary said the 15% revenue - handing - over agreement for semiconductor sales to China might expand to other industries and denied national security concerns [9].

摘要周四（8月14日）亚洲时段，国际黄金自日内高位回落，现交投于3358美元附近，美元指数自两周 低点反弹，对以美元计价的黄金构成一定压力，短线多空拉锯加剧，地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，在一定 程度上打压了黄金作为避险资产的买需。如果地缘风险进一步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战。 周四（8月14日）亚洲时段，国际黄金自日内高位回落，现交投于3358美元附近，美元指数自两周低点 反弹，对以美元计价的黄金构成一定压力，短线多空拉锯加剧，地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，在一定程度 上打压了黄金作为避险资产的买需。如果地缘风险进一步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战。 【要闻速递】 据三位知情人士透露，美国总统特朗普告诉欧洲和乌克兰领导人，美国愿意在一定条件下为乌克兰提供 安全保障。这次讨论是德国周三安排的虚拟会议的一部分，目的是在特朗普周五与俄罗斯总统普京举行 峰会之前协调美国和欧洲的立场。 这三位人士都表示，如果达成停火协议，美国愿意向基辅提供某些帮助，阻止俄罗斯未来再度进犯。 知情人士说，特朗普称，他只有在不牵涉到北约的情况下才会做出这样的承诺。特朗普对这种保证持开 放态度有助于解释欧洲官员为何在会谈后和周五会议前表达 ...

基本面： 尽管黄金受益于货币政策宽松，但地缘政治因素的潜在缓和，却在一定程度上打压了其作为避险资产的买需。特朗普总统将于周五与俄罗斯总统普京会晤， 讨论结束乌克兰战争的事宜，这一消息引发市场对冲突降温的乐观预期。欧洲和乌克兰领导人已在会晤前与特朗普进行沟通，希望推动停火而不损害乌克兰 利益。此外，中美两国将关税休战期延长90天，这也缓解了全球贸易摩擦的紧张氛围。这些发展让投资者暂时减少了对黄金的避险配置，转而青睐风险资 产。芝加哥联储总裁古尔斯比表示，美联储正在努力评估关税对通胀的短期或长期影响，这将直接影响降息时机的决策。 亚特兰大联储总裁博斯蒂克则指出，美国经济接近充分就业，这为美联储提供了不急于调整政策的"奢侈条件"。然而，这些言论也暗示，如果地缘风险进一 步缓解，黄金的上涨动力可能会面临挑战，因为避险需求是金价传统支撑之一。日内交易者主要关注晚间PPI数据影响。 技术面： 日线级别，金价昨日续录得小实体收盘表现受限，盘中一度测试3370一线后至尾盘再次回归胶着区间内报收，短期或仍面临更多多空争夺，交易者留意3390 附近短期多空争夺。1--4小时级别，短线走势自3410附近高点回吐涨幅后本周表现略显清 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article revolves around the volatility of gold prices influenced by various factors, including tariff policies, geopolitical tensions, and economic data [3][4][5] - The first factor affecting gold prices is the reversal of tariff policies, where the market initially reacted to fears of tariffs on gold, leading to speculative buying and a subsequent price surge. However, the announcement by Trump on August 9 that gold would not be subject to tariffs led to a sell-off by speculators, causing downward pressure on prices [3][4] - The second factor is the geopolitical situation, particularly the upcoming summit between Trump and Putin on August 16 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The potential for a peace agreement could reduce the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, but the strong opposition from Ukraine and European nations introduces uncertainty, providing some support for gold prices [4][5] - The third factor is the economic data released by the U.S. Labor Department, indicating a 2.7% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index for July, with core CPI rising to 3.1%. This data creates mixed signals regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, impacting gold prices as market participants weigh the likelihood of rate cuts [5][6] Group 2 - The analysis of gold price movements indicates a shift from stability to volatility, with prices fluctuating between support and resistance levels. The current support level is identified at 3278, while resistance is at 3430. A breakout above the August 8 high of 3409 is necessary for a stronger upward movement [8] - Technical indicators suggest that the market may experience a weak trend before any potential rebound, with the price currently under pressure from the 20-day moving average at 3356. The MACD and KDJ indicators also indicate a bearish sentiment in the short term [8]

8月12日，COMEX黄金价格下跌0.15%至3399.60美元/盎司，沪金主连下跌0.11%至776.28元/克。 新世纪期货研报：短期来看，美最新CPI低于市场预期巩固美联储降息预期，对金价形成支撑；中美贸 易关税休战的再度延长，降低市场对贸易紧张局势的担忧，俄乌和平谈判的潜在进展使得黄金避险需求 降温，预计金价维持高位震荡。 （8月13日）全国黄金价格一览表 8月12日，上期所黄金期货仓单36045千克，环比上个交易日持平。 分析观点： | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 773.7元/克 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海黄金现货市场 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 774.2元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | | Au不小于(%):99.99 | 773.07元/克 | 市场价 | 上海市/黄浦区 | 上海黄金 | 期货市场上看，8月13日收盘，沪金期货主力合约报777.72元/克，涨幅0.08%，最高触及777.82元/克， 最低下探773.8 ...