Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily review of the precious metals industry on June 24, 2025, provided by the macro - financial team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The mid - line upward trend of gold remains good, with increased volatility. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [4][5] Group 4: Precious Metals Market Analysis Intraday Market - Due to the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, geopolitical risks pushed the price of London gold up to around $3400 per ounce during the Asian session on the 23rd. But it later fell back to around $3350 per ounce. The Trump 2.0 new policy boosts the safe - haven demand for gold [4] Domestic Market Data - Shanghai Gold Index closed at 783.42 with a 0.36% increase; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 8794 with a 1.23% increase; Gold T + D closed at 777.60 with a 0.12% increase; Silver T + D closed at 8730 with a 0.77% increase [5] Mid - line Market - In April, multiple safe - haven demands drove the gold price to exceed $3500 per ounce. Although the price has回调 from its high, the mid - level upward trend remains intact. Long - and mid - term factors driving the gold price up will continue to exist, but short - term price surges lead to increased volatility [5] Group 5: Main Macro Events/Data - The US military destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. European foreign ministers' attempt to prevent conflict escalation had little success [17] - Russian President Putin's remarks on Ukraine were condemned by the Ukrainian foreign minister [17] - The Fed's report shows that US inflation is somewhat high, the job market is stable, and the impact of Trump's tariff increase is uncertain [17] - The US Commerce Department may revoke the authorization of global chip manufacturers in China, and Japan canceled a high - level meeting with the US [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices, particularly the inability to break new highs since April, indicate a potential downturn in the short term, influenced by central bank purchasing patterns and ongoing geopolitical factors [1][4][9]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices peaked at $3,500 in April but have since declined, nearing the $3,300 mark, with a continued volatile trend observed [1]. - Positive U.S. employment data and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have contributed to the recent fluctuations in gold prices, with silver and platinum showing stronger performance [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the inability of gold to surpass $3,400 indicates rising downside risks, with critical support levels at $3,300 and $3,120 [4]. Group 2: Central Bank Purchasing Behavior - Central banks, particularly in China, have slowed their gold purchases after seven months of consistent increases, which may weaken support for gold prices [4][9]. - China has accumulated 1.03 million ounces of gold since November, but the pace of purchases has decreased significantly in recent months [4]. Group 3: Company Performance and Market Dynamics - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold has experienced significant volatility, dropping 13.4% in four trading days, reflecting the broader trends in gold prices [1][5]. - Lao Pu Gold has adopted a unique pricing strategy that has led to a substantial increase in profit margins, achieving a gross margin of 41.2% and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, a 253.9% year-on-year increase [5]. - Concerns have been raised regarding Lao Pu Gold's inventory levels and cash flow, with speculation about potential financial practices affecting market sentiment [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term uncertainties, there is a strong consensus among institutions regarding the long-term bullish outlook for gold, driven by increasing demand for asset diversification amid economic instability [8][9]. - Historical patterns show that significant debt expansions correlate with rising gold prices, suggesting that ongoing fiscal challenges may further elevate gold's value [8].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices have recently experienced volatility, nearing the $3300 mark after peaking at $3500 in April, with a lack of new highs observed since then [1][2] - Positive U.S. employment data and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations have contributed to the fluctuations in gold prices, with short-term forecasts appearing less optimistic [1][2] - The support level for gold is currently at $3300, with potential declines to $3200 and $3000 if this level is breached [3] Group 2: Gold Mining and Retail Stocks - Gold-related stocks, such as Lao Pu Gold, have shown significant price fluctuations, with a recent drop of 13.4% over four trading days, although a recovery was noted shortly after [1][4] - Lao Pu Gold has adopted a unique pricing strategy, achieving a gross margin of 41.2% and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 253.9% [4][5] - Concerns have been raised regarding Lao Pu Gold's financial health, particularly regarding high inventory levels and cash flow issues, which may impact market sentiment [5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Despite short-term uncertainties, there is a strong consensus among institutions regarding the long-term outlook for gold, driven by increasing interest in diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets [6][7] - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and the potential for continued central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the future [7]

美联储的货币政策走向同样对金价至关重要。尽管市场预计美联储在9月之前降息的可能性较低，但利率期货显示，投资者仍押注2025年晚些时候可能出现 25个基点的降息。如果通胀数据超预期，美联储可能进一步推迟降息计划，从而对美元形成支撑，短期内对金价构成压力。然而，长期来看，经济复苏的不 确定性和全球地缘政治风险将继续推高黄金的避险需求。值得注意的是，中国央行在5月连续第七个月增持黄金储备。这一举动不仅反映了中国对黄金作为 战略资产的重视，也为金价提供了长期支撑。黄金储备的增加被视为一种多元化资产配置的策略，旨在降低对美元资产的依赖。其他新兴市场国家可能效仿 这一趋势，进一步推高全球黄金需求。 基本面： 周二（6月10日）亚市早盘，现货白银窄幅震荡，本周焦点：中美贸易谈判、通胀数据经历就业数据密集的一周后，本周重心转向通胀数据，关键价格稳定 指标将陆续公布： 贸易谈判的结果将对全球经济和金价产生深远影响。如果会谈取得积极进展，市场风险偏好可能短暂回升，短期内对金价形成一定压 力。然而，长期来看，贸易战引发的供应链重构和全球经济放缓将继续支撑黄金需求。投资者需要密切关注会谈的进展，尤其是双方在关税减免和市场开放 方面的 ...

Market Overview - Spot gold fell by 1.27% on Friday, closing at $3309.47 per ounce, marking a near three-week low; COMEX gold futures dropped 1.31% to $3331.00 per ounce [1] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May exceeded expectations with an increase of 139,000 jobs, compared to the forecast of 126,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, diminishing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - Market expectations for a September rate cut decreased from 88% to 60%, leading to a stronger dollar and rising 10-year Treasury yields, which suppressed gold's safe-haven demand [1] Gold Market Dynamics - On Monday, gold exhibited a downward trend, following several consecutive red candlesticks after an initial green candlestick, indicating a prevailing selling pressure [2] - The opening price was $3312.23, with a peak at $3321.16, reflecting a gradual decline in price [2] Currency Market Insights - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) showed some volatility on Friday, opening at 98.74, and remained in a fluctuating state, having previously touched a near 32-day low [4] - The market is closely monitoring the non-farm payroll data for further direction on the dollar's trajectory [4] Employment Data - The ADP report for May revealed an increase of 275,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the market expectation of 180,000, indicating robust demand for labor, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [5] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The final value of the Eurozone's May Services PMI was revised down to 53.2 from an initial 53.5, indicating a slowdown in growth despite remaining above the neutral level of 50 [6] - Weak new order growth and declining business confidence in Germany (PMI at 52.1) and France (PMI at 53.7) raise concerns about the overall economic recovery in the Eurozone [6] Federal Reserve Economic Assessment - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book reported moderate economic growth in the U.S. from mid-April to late May, with easing labor market tightness and stable consumer spending, although manufacturing activities face challenges [7] - Overall price pressures are easing, with most regions reporting a slowdown in cost increases [7]

6月6日亚市早盘，现货黄金震荡微涨，交投于3360美元/盎司附近。昨日金价一度突破3400美元关口，创四周新高至3403.28美元，但随后因中美领导人通话 释放贸易缓和信号，收盘下跌0.6%至3352.63美元。当前市场聚焦晚间美国非农就业数据，预计5月新增就业13万人，失业率维持4.2%。 | 昨收 | 3352.63 | 最高 | 3368.58 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 开盘 | 3354.20 | | 3353.07 | | 买入 | 3362.26 | 卖出 | 3362.46 | 一、基本面解析：多空因素交织 贸易局势缓和压制避险需求 中美领导人通话释放积极信号，特朗普称双方在贸易问题上达成"非常积极的结论"，市场对关税冲突升级的担忧降温，黄金避险买盘减少。但分析师警告， 关税谈判的不确定性仍存，若后续谈判未达预期，避险需求可能迅速回升。 美国经济数据疲软支撑金价 上周初请失业金人数增至24.7万人，连续两周上升，显示劳动力市场放缓。同时，美国4月PCE物价指数同比2.1%低于预期，市场押注美联储9月降息概率升 至87%。非农数据若低于预期，可能进一步强化降息预期 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are under pressure due to various market factors, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainties, with current trading around $3308.84 per ounce, reflecting a 1.00% decline [1][3]. Economic Data Focus - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month, March FHFA house price index month-on-month, May Conference Board consumer confidence index, and May Dallas Fed business activity index [1]. Market Sentiment and Trade Policy - The Trump administration's threat to impose a 50% tariff on the EU has been postponed to July 9, but market concerns remain. An escalation in trade tensions could increase global economic uncertainty, potentially boosting gold's safe-haven demand [3][5]. - The fluctuating tariff policies may lead to changes in market risk appetite, impacting gold prices in both directions [3]. Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - Gold has faced resistance around $3365, with recent price movements indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend. The price has dropped to around $3320, suggesting a correction phase may persist [3][5]. - Technical indicators show that gold prices are currently adjusting, with the possibility of further declines, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term, geopolitical issues such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-EU trade negotiations will likely drive market volatility [3]. - Mid-term factors include the currency dynamics between the U.S. dollar and euro, as well as developments in the Middle East nuclear crisis, which will influence gold's direction [3]. - Long-term considerations involve the global de-dollarization process and geopolitical restructuring, which may lead to a significant revaluation of gold [3].

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's threat to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods, highlighting the potential economic impacts on both the EU and the US, as well as the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][6]. Group 1: Reasons for Trump's Tariff Threat - The tariff threat serves as a negotiation pressure tactic aimed at accelerating trade talks with the EU, particularly regarding issues like digital service taxes and regulatory coordination [3]. - The US faces a significant trade deficit with the EU, amounting to $235.6 billion in 2024, with nearly 40% attributed to the automotive sector, prompting Trump to accuse the EU of unfair trade practices [3]. - Domestic political considerations are also at play, as the upcoming 2025 elections require Trump to fulfill promises related to revitalizing American manufacturing, which could resonate with voters in industrial states [3]. - The US aims to leverage tariffs to influence EU policies towards China, seeking to align EU actions with US interests in limiting Chinese supply chains [4]. Group 2: Potential Consequences of High Tariffs - The EU economy would be significantly impacted, particularly German car manufacturers like Porsche and Audi, which could face substantial losses and potential layoffs due to reduced exports to the US [7]. - The US could experience inflationary pressures as consumers bear the cost of increased prices for goods such as automobiles and alcohol, leading to higher household expenditures [7]. - A global economic ripple effect may occur, with financial markets experiencing volatility and companies shifting production to regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia, ultimately passing increased costs onto consumers [7]. - The EU may respond with concessions, such as increasing imports of US agricultural products, but is unlikely to accept unilateral US demands, potentially leading to a "lose-lose" scenario for both economies [8]. Group 3: Long-term Implications - The ongoing trade tensions could accelerate the trend of regionalizing global supply chains, resulting in higher compliance costs for multinational companies [8]. - The situation is characterized as a high-stakes negotiation, with the outcome dependent on the EU's ability to withstand US pressure and maintain its trade principles [8]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices could rise to $5,000 per ounce due to factors such as increased central bank gold purchases and a potential crisis of confidence in the US dollar [8][9].

Group 1 - International gold prices surged significantly, closing at $3289.29 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar, despite cautious market sentiment regarding the Russia-Ukraine peace talks and U.S. tariff policies [1] - On May 21, spot gold broke the $3300 mark for the first time since May 9, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The latest data from CME shows a 94.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, with a 5.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance on monetary policy [3] Group 2 - UBS maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, predicting prices could reach $3500 per ounce by the end of the year, with a potential high of $3800 per ounce in a risk-off scenario [3][4] - The main drivers of gold prices are the U.S. dollar and real interest rates, with expectations of continued rate cuts by the Fed supporting a bullish outlook for gold [4] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to rise in the coming months due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, which could further elevate gold prices [3]