Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in London silver prices, surpassing $60 per ounce, is attributed to tight supply and low inventory levels, leading to a "short squeeze" scenario in the market [2][5]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices have significantly increased, breaking the $60 per ounce mark, while the gold-silver ratio has fallen below 70 [2][5]. - The high level of open interest in silver contracts indicates continued trading activity, driven by supply constraints and low inventory [2][5]. - The market is expected to remain strong until supply issues are resolved, but there is a risk of further price increases [2][5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The latest ADP report shows that the private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ending November 22, ending a four-week trend of job losses [2][5]. - This positive labor market signal has led to a slight rebound in the US dollar index, which may suppress precious metal prices [2][5]. - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is anticipated to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, which has largely been priced into the market; however, a hawkish tone from Powell could lead to selling pressure [2][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices are likely to rise due to the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, but geopolitical news and the easing of global trade tensions affect its upward momentum. London gold needs to move in the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce to accumulate momentum for a new breakthrough. Silver, platinum, and palladium, with strong industrial attributes, have been strong recently but show signs of adjustment. In the medium - to - long - term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system support the upward trend of gold prices [4]. - The medium - level bull market of precious metals since March 2024 has not ended. In the next half - year and one - year, London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market - **Intraday Market**: The decline of the US November ISM manufacturing PMI strengthens the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The price of London gold is affected by multiple factors, and silver, platinum, and palladium show signs of adjustment [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed to restart the rate - cut process. The re - emergence of the Abe economic route in Japan and the restructuring of the global trade and monetary system provide support for precious metals. The medium - level bull market continues, and investors are advised to look for long - entry opportunities [5]. - **Domestic Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 959.73, down 0.48%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 13,418, up 1.08%; Gold T + D closed at 954.80, down 0.36%; Silver T + D closed at 13,408, up 1.11% [5]. 3.2 Main Macro Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: After the US - Ukraine talks on the Russia - Ukraine peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and a US envoy goes to Moscow. The US and the UK reach a zero - tariff agreement on pharmaceuticals and medical technology, which will increase the UK's drug expenditure [16]. - **Economic Data**: The US manufacturing PMI in November dropped from 48.7 in October to 48.2, indicating a continuous contraction for nine months. Although manufacturing activities are expected to improve after the end of the government shutdown, they may remain sluggish [16].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that in the short - to - medium term, multiple factors are at play in the precious metals market. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weaker US dollar drive up the prices of gold and silver, but the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation limit the upward momentum of gold prices. The London gold price is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3,880 - $4,380 per ounce for a longer period. In the medium - to - long term, factors such as central bank easing, geopolitical risks, and the restructuring of the international trade and currency system support the upward trend of precious metal prices. The intermediate bull market of precious metals that started in March 2024 is not over. In the next six months and one year, the price of London gold may rise to $4,500 and $4,800 per ounce respectively, and the price of London silver may rise to $58 and $63 per ounce respectively [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: The support of New York Fed officials for a near - term interest rate cut by the Fed, weak US consumer spending and confidence data, and a rise in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation to over 80% along with a decline in the US dollar index below 100 have pushed up the prices of gold and silver. However, the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the easing of international trade situation have curbed the upward momentum of gold prices. It is not advisable to over - pursue long or short positions at present [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation support the Fed to restart the interest rate cut process, and the interest rate cut may be larger than needed. The election of Kōmeitō's candidate for the Japanese prime minister and the global trade and currency system restructuring and geopolitical risks continue to provide demand for gold. The intermediate bull market of precious metals since March 2024 is not over. After the significant correction of gold and silver prices since late October, investors should watch for opportunities to go long again [5]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 947.69 with a 0.02% increase, the Shanghai Silver Index at 12,222 with a 0.81% increase, the Gold T + D at 941.20 with a 0.05% increase, and the Silver T + D at 12,205 with a 0.60% increase [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, all sourced from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **Geopolitical Events**: Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready to advance a US - supported framework agreement to end the war with Russia, and Trump has instructed envoys to meet with relevant parties. There are only a few points of disagreement left in the negotiation [17]. - **US Fed News**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent is conducting the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that White House economic advisor Hassett is the favorite, but the White House refuted this [17]. - **Economic Data**: US retail sales in September increased by only 0.2% after a 0.6% increase in August, lower than expected. The producer price index for final demand rebounded 0.3% in September, mainly driven by a 3.5% increase in energy costs and a 1.1% increase in food prices. The consumer confidence index in November dropped to a seven - month low [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed strong performance, with silver futures experiencing a significant increase, reaching a high of 12,296.00 yuan/kg and a rise of 4.48% [1] - Analysts from Haitong Futures believe that the macroeconomic fundamentals supporting the strength of precious metals remain intact, including ongoing central bank gold purchases, persistent geopolitical risks, and the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Guosen Futures anticipates a continued upward trend in precious metals, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks, with gold and silver expected to maintain their investment appeal [1] Group 2 - Zhonghui Futures noted that the one-month silver leasing rate in London has surged above 30%, with overnight borrowing costs exceeding 100% annualized, indicating strong demand for silver [2] - Factors such as rate cut expectations, tariff disruptions, and strong gold purchasing intentions from major Asian countries, along with U.S. fiscal issues, are seen as significant positives for precious metals [2] - The outlook for silver remains optimistic, with a focus on the resistance level around 15,000, while caution is advised regarding the risks of chasing prices in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The commodity market is experiencing a strong performance, with significant increases in precious metals such as platinum, palladium, silver, and gold [1] - The A-share market reflects this positive sentiment, with the non-ferrous metal sector showing a cumulative increase of 22.62% in August, closely matching the 24.13% rise in the ChiNext Index [1] - Companies involved in tungsten ore production are highlighted as potential investment opportunities within the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 2 - The domestic market opened positively in September, with over 3,200 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets showing gains [8] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.75 trillion yuan, a decrease of 48 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [8] - Key sectors such as chip stocks, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gold stocks saw significant gains, while large financial stocks experienced a collective adjustment, with insurance stocks leading the decline [8] Group 3 - The gold market is showing a bullish trend, with prices reaching a high of 3,489 USD per ounce during trading, following a previous close of 3,447 USD [4] - The expectation is for a potential market correction, with significant stop-loss and liquidation levels anticipated around 3,450 and 3,480 USD [4] - The overall long-term trend for gold remains bullish, despite short-term fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may fluctuate widely between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the dispersion of reserve demand will support the long - term bull market of gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price - to - earnings ratios also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised not to go full - long or blindly short, and short - minded traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chairman Powell indicated that more time was needed to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation. The better - than - expected US second - quarter GDP and June ADP private employment data cooled the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the US dollar index tested the 100 mark. London gold once fell to $3267 per ounce, but then rebounded to around $3300 per ounce due to Trump's tariff threats. Silver with strong industrial attributes fell below the $37 per ounce mark [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating widely between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the gold price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - to - silver ratio has basically returned to the level before April [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged on Wednesday. Powell's remarks reduced the probability of a Fed interest - rate cut in September from nearly 70% to less than 50%. Two Fed governors appointed by Trump opposed the decision [19]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 1st and mentioned a fine for India without details. India is studying the impact and aims for a fair trade agreement. Trump also said the deadline for imposing reciprocal tariffs on other trading partners will not be extended this Friday [19]. - The US second - quarter GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% quarter - on - quarter, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, this indicator exaggerated the economic health as the decline in imports was the main reason for the improvement, and domestic demand growth was the slowest in two and a half years [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and currency system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing in Q3 should be noted. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions [6]. - In the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next upward breakthrough. Traders with a bearish view can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunity when silver's upward momentum fades [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: After Trump's meeting with Fed Chairman Powell, market concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal discipline eased. Also, the trade situation improved, reducing the safe - haven demand. London gold fell from $3430 to around $3310 per ounce, and silver, with strong industrial attributes, also declined. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended to hold a long - term view with medium - low positions. This week, pay attention to important economic events and data [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: Shanghai Gold Index closed at 776.35, down 0.30%; Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9225, down 1.89%; Gold T + D closed at 771.60, down 0.26%; Silver T + D closed at 9187, down 1.97% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks supported the price. The gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate in the $3120 - $3500 per ounce range in the short term [6]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [8][10][16]. 3.3 Major Macro Events/Data - The US and the EU reached a framework trade agreement, with a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half of the threatened rate. The EU plans to invest about $600 billion in the US and increase purchases of US energy and military equipment [17]. - Thailand and Cambodia will hold a mediation meeting on border conflicts in Malaysia, with Thailand's acting prime minister and Cambodia's prime minister attending [17]. - The US government will announce the results of a national security investigation on semiconductor imports in two weeks [17]. - US core capital goods orders unexpectedly declined in June, but shipments increased slightly, indicating a significant slowdown in business equipment spending in Q2 [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and central bank rate - cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, the high price and P/E ratio also increase the volatility of gold prices. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Weak US real estate data and domestic political risks pushed the US dollar index down to around 98.3. Potential candidates for the Fed chair support rapid rate cuts, providing potential support for precious metals. London gold rose slightly to around $3370 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes strengthened due to anti - involution expectations. Trump's new policies boost the safe - haven demand for gold. London gold may oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to hold a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - low positions. This week, focus on the preliminary July PMI values in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Cooling international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation needs, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks still support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the pre - April level. The report believes that the long - term bull market of gold is supported by international trade and monetary system restructuring, and the medium - term bull market is supported by Trump's reforms and rate - cut expectations. However, high prices also increase volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's rate - cut timing. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions, and short - minded traders can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T+D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, but no specific analysis of these charts is provided in the text [7][9][11]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - In Japan's Sunday election, the ruling coalition is likely to lose control of the Senate, weakening Prime Minister Ishiba's power [17]. - G20 finance leaders emphasized central bank independence and cooperation in a joint communiqué, highlighting global economic uncertainties [17]. - The US House China Special Committee chair opposes resuming the sale of Nvidia H20 chips to China, and Nvidia has informed Chinese customers of limited supply and no plan to restart production [17]. - US single - family home starts in June dropped to an 11 - month low, with a 4.6% decline and building permits down 3.7%, indicating a potential contraction in residential investment in Q2 [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: July 16, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The restructuring of the international trade - currency system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and related economic situations will support the medium - term bull market. But the high price and PE ratio make the price volatility increase, and the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut needs attention in Q3. It is expected that London gold will oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions [6]. Section Summaries 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - The resumption of US aid to Ukraine and threats of sanctions against Russia boost the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The US dollar index has a slight pullback, pushing London gold to around $3360 per ounce. Overnight, speculative funds pushed London silver to break through the $39 per ounce resistance level, but profit - taking led to a pullback. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policies. It is recommended that investors take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. This week, focus on China's Q2 GDP and June economic data, and US June inflation and consumption data [4]. Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade cooling and the US fiscal expansion bill weaken gold's demand, but Trump's new policies and geopolitical risks support the price. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term, and investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - low positions. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage [6]. Domestic Precious Metals Market | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 782.06 | 782.14 | 776.58 | 781.09 | - 0.12% | 404,570 | 7131 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 9213 | 9231 | 9156 | 9231 | 0.20% | 1,002,552 | - 7677 | | Gold T + D | 777.46 | 777.00 | 771.80 | 776.13 | - 0.17% | 211,514 | - 3484 | | Silver T + D | 9172 | 9189 | 9117 | 9184 | 0.13% | 3,257,966 | 14962 | [5] 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets, with data from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][10][12] 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - The EU accuses the US of resisting trade - agreement efforts and warns of counter - measures. Trump is open to further discussions before the new 30% tariff takes effect, and EU officials will go to the US for negotiations [18]. - Bitcoin breaks through $120,000 for the first time, with a 30% increase this year. Investors expect a policy victory this week [18]. - Trump says the US will send top - level weapons to NATO to support Ukraine, and will impose strict tariffs on Russia if no cease - fire agreement is reached in 50 days [18]. - The US Commerce Department launches a national - security investigation into imported drones, related parts, solar panels, and polysilicon [19].