1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market, including rebar and hot - rolled coils, is expected to be in low - level consolidation. The rebar spot has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, but it has entered the consumption off - season, and the market has weak expectations for future supply and demand. The rebar futures 2510 contract closed at 2974 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton or 0.23% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 31,500 lots in positions [1]. - The iron ore market is predicted to show an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined from a high level. The global iron ore shipments have increased, and the iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 1,000 lots in positions [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to oscillate. For coking coal, some mines in the producing areas have stopped production, and the coke has been reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. For coke, the inventory of coking enterprises has continued to accumulate, and the steel mills' procurement is cautious. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton or 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions [1]. - The ferrosilicon - manganese market is likely to be in low - level oscillation. The weekly output of ferrosilicon - manganese has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the supply, demand, and cost support are all insufficient. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots [1]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to oscillate. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant has stopped a 33000kva furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel Products**: The rebar futures showed a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price was stable with a slight decline. The market has entered the consumption off - season, and the expected supply - demand situation is weak. The futures price of rebar 2510 contract was 2974 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous trading day, and the inventory decreased by 31,500 lots. The spot price in Tangshan was 2900 yuan/ton, and in Hangzhou it was 3060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The national building materials trading volume was 99,800 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend. The Australian shipments increased, while Brazilian shipments decreased. The iron ore futures i2509 contract closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous trading day. The port spot prices decreased, and the 47 - port imported iron ore inventory and steel mills' imported ore inventory continued to decline [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose. Some mines in the producing areas stopped production, and the coke was reduced in price three times, squeezing the profits of coking enterprises. The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 785 yuan/ton, up 0.64% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 10,312 lots in positions. The spot price in Lvliang decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose. The downstream steel mills' procurement willingness was low, and the coking enterprises' inventory continued to accumulate. After three price cuts, the coking enterprises' losses increased, and some reduced production. The coke 2509 contract closed at 1349 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 255 lots in positions. The spot price in Rizhao Port increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon - Manganese**: The ferrosilicon - manganese futures showed a narrow - range oscillation. The supply has increased slightly for three consecutive weeks, and the demand and cost support are limited. The ferrosilicon - manganese futures closed at 5542 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5172 lots in positions to 436,200 lots. The market price of 6517 ferrosilicon - manganese was 5380 - 5540 yuan/ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures rose slightly. An Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon plant stopped a furnace, and the steel procurement is ongoing. The ferrosilicon futures closed at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 5651 lots in positions to 218,100 lots. The spot price in most regions decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The report provides the latest and环比 data of contract spreads for various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon, including 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc [4]. - **Basis**: The latest and环比 data of basis for different varieties are given, like the basis of rebar 10 - contract, hot - rolled coils 10 - contract, etc [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The latest and环比 data of spot prices in different regions for each variety are presented, for example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou, and the spot price of iron ore PB powder and super - special powder [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The latest and环比 data of profits (such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc) are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1主力合约价格**: The report includes charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferrosilicon - manganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14]. - **3.3.2主力合约基差**: Charts display the basis of the main contracts of various varieties over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar RB2010 - RB2510, hot - rolled coils HC2010 - HC2510, etc [16][17][18]. - **3.3.3跨期合约价差**: The report presents charts of the spreads between different contracts of each variety, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, etc [24][25][27]. - **3.3.4跨品种合约价差**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc [39][40][42]. - **3.3.5螺纹钢利润**: Charts display the disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 [43][45][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **邱跃成**: The assistant director of the research institute and the director of black research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, holding multiple industry honors [51]. - **张笑金**: The director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, a trainer for thermal coal at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and has won many industry awards [51]. - **柳浠**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with a master's degree in science, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **张春杰**: A black researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment companies and spot - futures trading companies, having passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].

Group 1: Research Views Steel - Yesterday, the rebar futures market showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2981 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.2%) from the previous trading day, with a position reduction of 19,700 lots. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and trading volume remained low. In May 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.578 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,000 tons (1.1%); from January to May, cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. It is expected that the rebar futures market will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation in the short term [1]. Iron Ore - Yesterday, the main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a fluctuating and consolidating trend, closing at 703 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton (0.64%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 300,000 lots and a position reduction of 4,000 lots. In May, China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. From a supply - demand perspective, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output continued to decline. It is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a fluctuating and consolidating trend [1]. Coking Coal - Yesterday, the coking coal futures market rose. The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 780 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton (0.19%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 637 lots in open interest. The overall supply is still loose, and downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the coking coal futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Coke - Yesterday, the coke futures market declined. The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1339 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan/ton (0.85%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 393 lots in open interest. After the third round of price cuts, the production losses of coke enterprises intensified, and there was a slight inventory build - up in coke enterprises. It is expected that the coke futures market will fluctuate in the short term [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Monday, the manganese silicon futures price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The main contract was reported at 5552 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 10,680 lots to 441,300 lots. The supply reduction has limited support for prices, and downstream demand is relatively weak. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Monday, the ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly. The main contract was reported at 5174 yuan/ton, up 0.58% month - on - month, with a position reduction of 3261 lots to 223,800 lots. Recently, the supply has increased significantly, while demand is still in need of improvement. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures will mainly operate in a low - level fluctuation in the short term [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as information on profits and price differences between different varieties [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. 3.2 Main Contract Basis - Charts of the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, showing the basis data from different contract periods [17][18][21][23]. 3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report shows charts of the spreads between different contracts (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][29][31][33][34][37]. 3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads - Charts of the spreads between different varieties, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the difference between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, are presented [39][41][43]. 3.5 Rebar Profits - Charts of the rebar main - contract disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 are provided [44][48]. Group 4: Black Research Team Members Introduction - The black research team of Everbright Futures includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions, work experience, and professional qualifications introduced [50][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. Rebar production continued to fall, inventory decline narrowed, and apparent demand dropped. Considering the one - day less workweek, the data was neutral. With the entry into the consumption off - season, the market has a weak expectation for future supply and demand. However, the phone call between the leaders of China and the US may ease trade - war sentiment and boost market risk appetite. Short - term rebar futures are expected to trade in a narrow range [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 0.5%. Port spot prices were mixed. Australian shipments decreased from a high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries rebounded from a low level. Iron ore shipments globally increased. Iron - making output continued to decline. With 47 - port and steel - mill imported ore inventories decreasing, the price is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures contract 2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, down 1.43%. Spot prices in some areas decreased. Some coal mines had signs of shutdown and production restrictions due to safety incidents, and there was a slight increase in procurement in the spot trading link, but some coal mines still had high inventories. The coke market has a downward expectation, and steel mills' demand for coking coal is weak. Short - term coking coal futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Coke: The coke futures contract 2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, down 1.86%. Port spot prices fell. Steel mills initiated the third round of price cuts for coke. After two rounds of price cuts, coking enterprises faced production losses, and production enthusiasm weakened. Steel - mill demand for coke decreased as steel production declined. Short - term coke futures are expected to trade sideways [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly, with the main contract closing at 5482 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was stable. The manganese silicon price was mainly affected by the overall black - commodity sector sentiment but lacked sustainable support. Terminal demand was weak, and supply reduction support was limited. It is expected to follow the black - commodity sector fluctuations [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price trended weaker, with the main contract closing at 5196 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. Spot prices were stable. Terminal demand was weak, market sentiment needed boosting, and cost support was weak. Although weekly production has dropped to a low level in recent years, it has not supported the price. It is expected to trade weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, and so did spot prices and trading volume. Production, inventory, and apparent demand all showed a downward trend. Market sentiment was affected by the consumption off - season and international trade relations [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures price dropped, and port spot prices were mixed. Supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory declined. The price is expected to be range - bound [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Futures price fell, and some spot prices decreased. Supply was affected by safety incidents, and demand was weak due to the coke market's downward expectation [1]. - **Coke**: Futures price declined, and port spot prices dropped. Steel mills' price cuts and weakening demand from the steel sector led to a production slowdown in coking enterprises [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Futures price fluctuated narrowly, and the market price was stable. It was mainly driven by sector sentiment, with weak terminal demand and limited supply - reduction support [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Futures price trended weaker, and spot prices were stable. Weak terminal demand, low market sentiment, and limited cost support led to a weak outlook [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: For various black commodities, contract spreads such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month showed different changes, including increases and decreases [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of different regions and varieties of black commodities changed, including price drops and stability [4]. - **Profit and Spreads**: The profit of different steel - making processes (such as rebar) and cross - commodity spreads (e.g., roll - rebar spread) showed various changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts showed the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts presented the historical basis of main contracts for different black commodities [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts showed the historical spreads of different inter - period contracts for each black commodity [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Cross - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts displayed the historical spreads of cross - commodity contracts such as roll - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [40][41][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts showed the historical profits of rebar in different production processes (main - contract surface profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) [45][46][48]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: The assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: The director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the field of power coal research [52]. - Liu Xi: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: A black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to remain in a weak consolidation phase. The supply - demand fundamentals of rebar have not changed significantly, and the market still anticipates a weakening of supply - demand in the future [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and weakening trend. Although the futures price has risen, the supply has increased, and the iron - making output has declined, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to fluctuate. For coking coal, there are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, while the demand side has a downward expectation; for coke, steel mills continue to propose price cuts, but there may be some support on the futures price [1]. - The manganese silicon and silicon iron markets are expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector. Their price increases are mainly driven by market sentiment and cost support, and the supply - demand pattern is difficult to improve significantly in the short term [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price rebounded, with the 2510 contract closing at 2974 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.57%. Spot prices rose, and trading volume increased. This week, the national building materials production decreased by 3.83 tons to 421.93 tons, social inventory decreased by 14.84 tons to 550.47 tons, factory inventory decreased by 3.03 tons to 326.15 tons, and the apparent demand decreased by 0.89 tons to 439.8 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price of the main contract i2509 rose to 704.5 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 1.3%. Port spot prices increased. Australian shipments declined from the high level, Brazilian shipments increased significantly, and non - mainstream country shipments rebounded from the low level. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased to 241.91 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports and steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 122.25 tons and 171.15 tons respectively. It is expected to be volatile and weak [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 768 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan/ton or 6.82%. The spot price of some coal types decreased. There are signs of production suspension and restriction in some mines, and the spot trading link has cooled down. The coke market has a downward expectation, and the demand for coking coal is weak. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Coke**: The futures price of the 2509 contract rose to 1367.5 yuan/ton, up 68.5 yuan/ton or 5.27%. The spot price of port coke increased. Steel mills continued to propose a third - round price cut of 50 - 55 yuan/ton, the downstream procurement enthusiasm declined, and some coking enterprises' inventory accumulated. It is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5502 yuan/ton, up 2.12%. The increase was driven by the overall strength of the black sector and the rise in coking coal prices, which boosted market sentiment and increased cost support. The production has begun to rebound week - on - week, and it is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [1][3]. - **Silicon Iron**: The futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5258 yuan/ton, up 1.19%. The rise was driven by the strength of the black sector and the increase in coking coal prices. The production continued to decline, but there are signs of复产 in some areas. It is expected to follow the overall fluctuations of the black sector [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar is 4.0, a decrease of 19.0; the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coil is 7.0, unchanged; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore is 38.5, an increase of 1.5, etc. [4]. - **Basis**: For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar is 136.0, a decrease of 26.0; the basis of the 10 - contract of hot - rolled coil is 103.0, a decrease of 15.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore is 70.7, a decrease of 2.4, etc. [4]. - **Spot Price**: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai is 3110.0, an increase of 20.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai is 3200.0, an increase of 30.0; the spot price of PB powder in Rizhao Port is 732.0, an increase of 6.0, etc. [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: For example, the rebar futures profit is 84.8, a decrease of 3.1; the long - process profit is 32.4, an increase of 9.2; the short - process profit is - 116.8, an increase of 30.0; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 123.0, a decrease of 1.0, etc. [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides basis trend charts of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [25][29][31][33][34][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: The report provides spread trend charts of inter - variety contracts such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [39][40][41][43]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report provides profit trend charts of rebar, including futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich industry experience and professional qualifications [51][52].

黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 4 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面延续跌势，再创新低，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2928 元/吨，较上一交 易收盘价格下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅为 1.11%，持仓增加 0.18 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交维持低位，唐山 地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 10 元/吨至 2860 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，全 国建材成交量 9.45 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建材库存下降 3.11%至 390.59 万吨，热卷库存增加 0.22% 至 180.37 万吨，建材库存继续下降，热卷库存则有所累积。美国宣布将对进口钢材和铝材加征双倍关税， | 弱势整理 | | | 从现行的 25%翻倍，6 月 4 日起实施。钢材关税政策不断扰动，对市场情绪形成一定影响。而焦煤价格持 | | | | 续下跌，对钢材成本形成一定拖累。预计短期螺纹盘面仍弱势整理运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所下跌，收于 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel products are expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The demand for rebar has gradually weakened, supply remains high, and cost support has diminished [1]. - Iron ore is predicted to show a weak and volatile trend. Global shipments have slightly decreased, iron - water production has declined, and inventories are being depleted [1]. - Coking coal is likely to operate with a weak and volatile pattern. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, demand from the steel industry is weak, and steel mills have initiated a second round of price cuts for coke [1]. - Coke is expected to have a weak and volatile performance. Raw - material prices have dropped, steel prices are weak, and steel mills have started a second - round price cut for coke [1]. - Manganese silicon is forecasted to run weakly. Terminal demand is weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with decreasing prices [1]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to continue its weak operation. Terminal demand is relatively weak, market sentiment is pessimistic, and steel - tender prices are falling [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 2980 yuan/ton, down 0.8% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions. Spot prices fell, and demand weakened while supply remained high. Cost support from coke price cuts is expected to weaken, leading to a weak consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures contract i2509 closed at 698.5 yuan/ton, down 1.13%. Global shipments decreased slightly, with different trends in Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream regions. Iron - water production dropped, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 799.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in some areas fell. Upstream coal mine inventories are high, and demand from the steel industry is weak due to price cuts for coke, resulting in a weak and volatile outlook [1]. - **Coke**: The futures contract 2509 closed at 1364 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices at ports fell. Raw - material prices dropped, and steel mills initiated a second - round price cut for coke, leading to a weak and volatile trend [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The futures price closed at 5616 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and 6 - month steel tenders are ongoing with falling prices, so it is expected to run weakly [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5452 yuan/ton, down 1.73%. Spot prices in some regions decreased. Terminal demand is weak, and steel - tender prices are falling, leading to a weak operation [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: Different contracts of various commodities showed different spread changes, such as the 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coil, etc. [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts for each commodity also had corresponding changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [2]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various commodities in different regions changed, for example, rebar prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [2]. - **Profits and Spreads**: Profits such as rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit changed, as well as spreads like the coil - rebar spread and coke - iron ore ratio [2]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the historical closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [6][8][10][13]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts display the basis of main contracts for different commodities over different time periods [16][17][20][22]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts present the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various commodities [24][28][30][32][33][35]. - **Inter - commodity Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different commodities, such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [38][40][42]. - **Rebar Profits**: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar over different time periods [44][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [51]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [51]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [51]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading and a CFA Level 2 pass [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Report's Core View - Steel: The rebar market showed narrow - range consolidation. With production increasing, inventory decline narrowing, and apparent demand falling, the short - term outlook is for continued narrow - range movement. The spot market demand has some resilience but is gradually weakening [1]. - Iron Ore: The futures price is expected to show a weakening and volatile trend. Supply has increased significantly, while iron - making output has decreased, and there are mixed factors in the market [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The downstream procurement is slow, and the market confidence is low [1]. - Coke: The coke market is likely to experience weak and volatile trends. Production is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally as the temperature rises [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The futures price of manganese silicon increased significantly. Although there are news - driven factors, the sustainability is expected to be relatively weak [1]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon market is expected to move in a narrow range at a low level. Terminal demand is weak, and there is limited upward driving force [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research View - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.52 million lots in positions. The national rebar production increased by 4.95 tons week - on - week to 231.48 tons, social inventory decreased by 18.42 tons to 416.46 tons, and factory inventory increased by 2.77 tons to 187.76 tons. Apparent demand fell by 13.16 tons to 247.13 tons [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2509 was 727 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2% from the previous trading day. Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, iron - making output decreased by 1.17 tons to 243.6 tons, and port and steel mill inventories decreased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 827.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton or 1.72% from the previous trading day. The downstream procurement was slow, and the market confidence was weak [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1406.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous trading day. The coke production was at a high level, and demand may decline marginally [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The main contract of manganese silicon futures closed at 5998 yuan/ton, a 3.84% increase. The South African government's policy may lead to a reduction in manganese ore shipments, but the sustainability of the price increase is weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5622 yuan/ton, a 0.14% increase. Terminal demand is weak, and the steel mill's procurement price decreased [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For example, the 10 - 1 spread of rebar was - 20.0, with a 4.0 increase; the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 35.5, unchanged [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 129.0, unchanged; the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 79.0, a decrease of 4.0 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai rebar spot price was 3190.0, unchanged; the PB powder spot price at Rizhao Port was 760.0, a decrease of 5.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads of 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: There are charts showing the spreads and ratios such as the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, and double - silicon spread [40][42][44]. - **Rebar Profit**: There are charts showing the rebar main contract's on - paper profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit [45][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal futures field [52]. - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [53].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 黑色商品日报 | | 市场仍在观望，首询价格 5700 元/吨，较上月环比下降 250 元/吨。锰矿端近期也有新消息传出，South32 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 发布关于 GEMCO 恢复澳大利亚锰矿石出口销售的声明，第一批锰矿正在装船，预计几天后离港发运， | | | | 近期国内锰矿价格相对稳定。综合来看，近期市场在观望主流钢招定价情况，持续上行驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5638 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比增加 1111 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5400 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏 | | | 硅铁 | 弱，硅铁期价高开低走，尾盘小幅收跌。硅铁主流钢招价格敲定，最终 75B 采购价格 5800 元/吨，较首询 | 震荡 | | | 价格小幅上调，但较 4 月定价下跌 150 元/吨，5 月采购数量 2135 吨，较上轮增 435 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3069 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 13 元/吨，跌幅为 0.42%，持仓增加 4 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.81 万吨。据 | | | | 国家统计局数据，1—4 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.0%，增速较一季度下行 0.2 个百分点。分领 | | | | 域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.8%，增速较一季度持平；制造业投资增长 8.8%，增速较一季度回落 0.3 个 | | | | 百分点，房地产开发投资下降 10.3%，降幅较一季度扩大 0.4 个百分点。从房地产分项指标来看，4 月房地 | | | | 产开发投资、销售、新开工、施工和竣工同比分别下降 11.53%、下降 2.91%、 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 | | 仍相对有限，一定程度上会拖累锰硅价格。成本端，港口锰矿价格仍在持续回升，钢联数据显示截止 5 月 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 15 日，澳矿价格环比上调 1 元/吨度至 41.5 元/吨度，加蓬矿价格环比上调 0.2 元/吨度至 37.5 元/吨度， | | | | 南非半碳酸价格环比上调 0.3 元/吨度至 34 元/吨度，成本端有一定支撑。综合来看，近期在宏观情绪带 | | | | 动叠加市场消息刺激下锰硅期价重心有一定抬升，但能否持续还是要关注终端需求表现，短期关注主流钢 | | | | 招定价情况，预计短期区间震荡运行为主。 | | | | 硅铁：周四，硅铁期价窄幅震荡，主力合约报收 5660 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比下降 5280 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5500 元/吨， 内蒙古、宁夏地区较前一日持平，甘肃、青海地区较前一日 | | | | 下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势稍有分化，硅铁期价重心小幅下移。主流钢招最终定价仍未公布， | | | | 河北某大型钢厂 5 月硅铁招 ...