【环球时报驻美国、日本特约记者 萧达 潘小多 环球时报记者 李迅典 韩雯】美国总统特朗普表示，美 政府7月4日起将向尚未与美方达成关税协议的国家发出通知，告知这些国家将被征收的新税率。他称， 新税率将介于10%至70%之间，从8月1日起实施。这一消息立即在全球市场引发警惕。彭博社称，如果 实施，这将比特朗普4月2日宣布的所谓"对等关税"税率（最高为50%）更高，增加美国经济的通胀风 险。美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）称，50%的关税在4月曾导致美国股市陷入熊市区域，美国债券和美 元被大幅抛售，70%的关税将更超这一水平。美国股市和债券市场4日因独立日休市。日本学者分析 称，70%的税率将使对美出口变得几乎不可能，并抹去日本对美国的所有贸易顺差。7月9日是美国暂缓 执行所谓"对等关税"的最后期限。日本前首相鸠山由纪夫3日表示，"日本有一句俗语，哭闹的小孩谁也 对付不了"，用逻辑或者经济理论说服美国政府放弃关税措施是徒劳的。他认为，日本、澳大利亚、韩 国和美国其他盟友将不得不接受美国政策不可逆转的变化，并增强自身对美国的独立性。 和美国达成协议，或者未争取到进一步的豁免期限，韩国所适用的关税税率可能会再提高15个百 ...

Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The US and EU trade negotiations are at a standstill, with a deadline for a "tariff pause" approaching on July 9 [1][2] - EU representatives are seeking a principle-based agreement before the deadline, while also preparing for potential extensions of the tariff pause if no agreement is reached [2][8] - There are internal divisions within the EU regarding the approach to negotiations, with some countries favoring a quick agreement and others advocating for a stronger stance against US tariffs [1][9] Group 2: Automotive Industry Impact - European automotive manufacturers are facing pressure, with stock prices declining significantly amid tariff threats, including a 17% potential tariff on EU agricultural products and a 50% tariff on other goods if negotiations fail [4][8] - Some European governments and car manufacturers are pushing for an investment-based agreement with the US, where increased investment in the US could lead to tariff reductions [2][3] - The EU's second round of countermeasures against US tariffs has been scaled down from €950 billion to €720 billion, indicating a strategic adjustment in response to ongoing negotiations [10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The EU is prepared to take countermeasures to protect its economy if negotiations do not yield favorable results, with the EU Commission President stating that all options are on the table [10] - The potential for a principle-based agreement could maintain the current "truce" status, avoiding new US tariffs, while failure to reach an agreement could lead to the implementation of previously suspended tariffs [10]

Group 1 - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of US tariffs on Indian automotive exports [1] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the US on tariffs before the July 9 deadline, but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [3] - Japan and the US trade negotiations are at a standstill, with key issues being automotive and agricultural tariffs [3] Group 2 - India and the US are in discussions regarding tariffs, but remain divided on agricultural and dairy products, which India considers "red lines" [4] - India's Finance Minister has emphasized the importance of protecting domestic farmers' interests in trade negotiations with the US [4] - The EU's readiness to defend its economic interests indicates a potential escalation in trade tensions if agreements are not reached [3]

Group 1: Trade Negotiation Strategies - The U.S. is using "reciprocal tariffs" as a negotiation tool to encourage trade partners to increase purchases of American goods and enhance supply chain security[2] - Countries like India, Pakistan, and Switzerland are likely to reach trade agreements with the U.S., while the EU, Japan, and South Korea are still in negotiations[2][21] - The U.S. has clarified its demands in trade negotiations, which will be crucial for reaching agreements by the July 9 deadline[4] Group 2: Trade Deficits and Tariff Rates - The trade deficit with China stands at $295.40 billion, with a proposed reciprocal tariff rate of 34%[5] - The EU has a trade deficit of $235.57 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 20%[5] - India has a trade deficit of $45.66 billion, with a proposed tariff rate of 26%[24] Group 3: Economic Objectives - The U.S. aims to reduce its trade deficit primarily by increasing exports of energy and agricultural products, which account for about 28% of total exports[8] - The Trump administration seeks to reduce overseas spending and has linked trade policies to military spending commitments from NATO allies[12][13] - Strengthening domestic manufacturing and supply chain resilience is a key goal, especially in critical sectors like semiconductors and medical supplies[16] Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The uncertainty surrounding "reciprocal tariffs" may decrease, but the Trump administration retains tools like Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs, indicating ongoing trade policy uncertainty[2][30] - Non-U.S. countries are showing a willingness to compromise to reach trade agreements, while those failing to negotiate may face higher tariffs[30]

中国银河证券|CGS 全景东盟双周报（2025 年第 5 期） : "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 首席经济学家：章俊 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 "黄金签证"助力制度型开放实践 2025年7月4日 核心观点 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎：010-8092 8096 网: zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070003 研究助理 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 全景东盟双周报 刘小逸 网: liuxiaoyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 田冀霖 网: tianjilin_yj@chinastock.com.cn 风险提示 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 随着美国"对等关税"90天暂缓期进入最后倒计时(7月9日),东南亚地区 ● 超 30%的平均加征税率生效在即。区域内国家正采取"多线并进"的应对方 案:在贸易端加速"窗口期"出口冲刺,马来西亚单月对美出口额增长超四成; 在外交层面稳步推进对华经贸合作并密集开展对美游说与协商,争取在暂缓 期内签订关税协议,其中,越 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trade agreements between the United States and Vietnam, highlighting the differences in negotiation outcomes with Japan and the implications for U.S. trade policy under Trump [3][4][6]. Group 1: U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement - The U.S. has agreed to reduce tariffs on Vietnamese products from 46% to 20%, while imposing a 40% tariff on goods transshipped through Vietnam to the U.S. Vietnam will maintain zero tariffs on U.S. goods [3][4]. - The agreement reflects a broader strategy by the U.S. to maintain a competitive tariff differential with other countries, with a minimum differential of 8.2% and a maximum of 20% [6][15]. Group 2: U.S.-Japan Trade Negotiations - Japan's negotiations with the U.S. have stalled, with Japan insisting on comprehensive exemptions from tariffs, while the U.S. focuses on specific tariff rates [11][16]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 35% on Japanese goods, indicating a tougher stance compared to the agreement with Vietnam [10][24]. - Japan's position as a major investor in the U.S. has not translated into favorable trade terms, as the U.S. perceives Japan as a "spoiled ally" [11][24]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Trade Policy - The article suggests that the U.S. may adopt a phased approach to tariff negotiations, granting exemptions to countries making progress while applying pressure to those lagging behind [21]. - The potential for a trade agreement with India is highlighted, with India facing a 26% tariff and seeking a similar arrangement as Vietnam [18][19]. - The article notes that the U.S. is likely to be more flexible in negotiations with non-allied countries compared to traditional allies like Japan [17][21].

Employment Data - In June 2025, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the forecast of 106,000 and a revised previous value of 144,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%[5] - The private sector employment growth was below expectations, while government employment saw a significant increase of 66,000 jobs, primarily in state education positions[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - The month-over-month wage growth for the private sector decreased to 0.2%, below expectations, with a year-over-year growth of 3.7%[6] - Wage growth in the goods-producing sector fell to 0.1%, while the service sector also saw a decline in wage growth, indicating a cooling of core service inflation pressures[6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The resilience in employment data suggests that the Federal Reserve has ample room to maintain its current policy stance, with a high probability of no rate change in July[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of no rate cut in July rising from 76.2% to 95.3% following the employment data release[6] - The upcoming expiration of the "equivalent tariffs" pause and its economic impact will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions[6] Risks - There is a potential risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making process[29]

Group 1 - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba refuted claims of minimal progress in trade agreement negotiations with the U.S., stating that discussions are advancing steadily and cover a wide range of areas, including non-tariff barriers [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin indicated that the upcoming July 20 Senate elections in Japan are creating "domestic constraints" on reaching a potential trade agreement, contrasting with Ishiba's optimistic tone [1] - Concerns exist regarding the potential imposition of tariffs up to 35% by the U.S. on Japan, with Ishiba attempting to alleviate fears that Japan will not secure significant concessions from the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Japan is particularly worried about the U.S. imposing a separate 25% industry tariff on its automotive sector, which is a key driver of economic growth and a significant source of employment [2] - Trump has criticized Japan for not purchasing American cars or rice, threatening to raise reciprocal tariffs to 35%, raising concerns that Japan may be targeted in his global trade restructuring efforts [2] - Ishiba countered Trump's claims about Japan's automotive imports and rice purchases, asserting that Japan is the largest investor in the U.S. and creates the most jobs, hoping these contributions will be recognized [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. will send letters to approximately 100 countries detailing new tariff rates ranging from 20% to 30% starting July 4 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that around 123 countries were initially subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff, with a series of trade agreements expected to be announced before the deadline on July 9 [1][2] - The U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, while a framework agreement has been reached with China [1] Group 2 - President Trump expressed strong doubts about the prospects of U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations, threatening tariffs of 30% or 35% on Japanese imports, which is higher than the previously proposed 24% [2] - The EU is prepared to reach a principle agreement with the U.S. on tariffs but will take countermeasures if negotiations fail [2][3] - The EU is pushing for the U.S. to eliminate tariffs on EU exports as part of any framework agreement, with current tariffs on EU automobiles at 25% and on steel and aluminum at 50% [3] Group 3 - The U.S. is considering expanding tariffs to additional sectors, including wood, aerospace parts, pharmaceuticals, chips, and critical minerals [3] - Recent trade data indicates that the tariff policies are disrupting the U.S. economy, with a decline in both imports and exports in May, leading to an increased trade deficit [3] - The uncertainty surrounding the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations is expected to cause further volatility in import and export data [4]

美国目前只和英国、越南两国敲定贸易协议，另与中国达成框架协议。 特朗普当地时间7月2日表示，美国已经与越南达成贸易协议。特朗普随后又发帖文称，越南所有对美出口 商品将面临至少20%关税，并对美国"完全开放市场"。 其他贸易伙伴，如日本、欧盟等，仍在与美国谈判以敲定协议。 关税大消息。 美国总统特朗普表示，会在今日（7月4日）起向各国发出信件，具体说明有关国家货物进入美国时将面对 的关税税率。他在前往艾奥瓦州前向记者表示，每次将有10个国家收到有关信件，信中提及的关税税率为 20%至30%。 美国财长贝森特表示，将有约100个国家面对10%对等关税，并预计下周三（7月9日）对等关税宽限届满 前有一系列的贸易协议公布。美国4月公布对等关税政策时，获10%基准对等关税税率的国家及地区有 123个。他还说，未来几天将有大量消息。 特朗普多次威胁，若无法在下周期限前与美国达成贸易协议，将单方面设定关税。特朗普最早在4月2日宣 布激进的"对等"关税，但很快就宣布暂停90天，给各国协商的时间，这段期间的税率是10%。 综合自：央视新闻、新华社、券商中国、CCTV国际时讯等 责编：李丹 校对：刘星莹 版权声明 当地时间7月1 ...