Core Viewpoint - The Swiss franc is experiencing slight appreciation against the US dollar, influenced by recent economic data and trade tariffs imposed by the US on Swiss goods [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 0.2% year-on-year, compared to a 0.1% increase in June, indicating a slight upward trend but still close to negative territory [1] - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) may consider lowering interest rates below zero later this year due to the current economic conditions [1] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The USD/CHF exchange rate opened at 0.8042 and is currently trading at 0.8055, reflecting a 0.15% increase [1] - The exchange rate has rebounded from a low of 0.7871, currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 0.7976 [1] - The upper Bollinger Band is at 0.8065, while the lower band is at 0.7887, indicating reduced volatility and a market in a consolidation phase [1] Group 3: Trade and Tariffs - The US has imposed a surprising 39% tariff on most Swiss goods, which is higher than previous signals from the Trump administration, potentially impacting Swiss exports [1] - The appreciation of the Swiss franc is reducing demand for Swiss export products, including pharmaceuticals and luxury watches [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating of treasury bond futures is "oscillation" [1] Report's Core View - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures rebounded after opening lower and stopped falling in the short - term. The short - term treasury bond futures may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary According to Related Content Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower and fluctuated upward throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 rose 0.10%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.03% [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A stock index rose unilaterally in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. Treasury bond futures did not show a seesaw effect with the stock index. After two consecutive days of corrections on Monday and Tuesday, treasury bond futures opened lower and then rebounded [2] Important Information Open Market - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan [1] Money Market - On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market was basically flat compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.45%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [1] Cash Bond Market - On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.00 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year decreased by 0.46 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year decreased by 0.09 BP to 1.73%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 2.02% [1] Social Financing and Credit Data in July - The social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan, 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The net financing of government bonds increased by 1.244 trillion yuan, 555.9 billion yuan more year - on - year; the RMB loans issued to the real economy decreased by 426.3 billion yuan, 345.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the net financing of corporate bonds was 279.1 billion yuan, 75.5 billion yuan more year - on - year; the undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 163.9 billion yuan, 56.4 billion yuan more year - on - year. The RMB loans in the credit caliber decreased by 50 billion yuan, with a market expectation of a 15 - billion - yuan decrease, 310 billion yuan more year - on - year [1] - Corporate medium - and long - term loans decreased by 260 billion yuan, 390 billion yuan more than the same period last year; corporate short - term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, the same as the decrease in the same period last year; corporate bill financing increased by 871.1 billion yuan, 312.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Resident short - term loans decreased by 382.7 billion yuan, 167.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 110 billion yuan, 120 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - At the end of July, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, with a market expectation of 8.3% and 8.3% at the end of June. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, with a market expectation of 5.3% and a year - on - year increase of 4.6% in June [1] Other Economic Data - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year in July, better than the market forecast of 5.8% and the previous value of 5.9%. It is expected that China's export growth rate will probably decline in the future [2] - China's CPI was flat year - on - year in July, slightly exceeding the market expectation of a 0.1% decrease; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of a 3.4% decrease. The overall price level continued to hover at a low level [2] - On August 12, it was announced that China and the US would suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, which is beneficial for stabilizing bilateral trade and market confidence [2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Bond Market & Interest Rates - The short end of the market is likely to experience one or two rate cuts before year-end, which could provide some support [1] - High credit card interest rates, around 25%, are a key concern [1] - Housing market is identified as the critical missing piece in the economy [2] - Treasury Secretary's comments on lowering rates may have had some effect [3] - Market participants experience a sense of relief after CPI releases, even if slightly warmer than expected, leading to lower yields for twos and tens maturities [4] Dollar Index & Speculative Trading - The dollar index is sensitive to the administration's pressure for lower rates due to its wider audience of speculative trading [5] - A close below 98 on the dollar index is expected to maintain selling pressure, according to technicians [5] - The dollar index has retraced a significant portion of its bounce from multi-year lows seen in early July [5]

Why don't we start off with the with the markets hitting new record highs once again after that CPI report that in all honesty it was kind of mixed. Uh you know headline was better than expected core was just slightly hotter than expected. What's your take on that.Well I think it was it's just a reflection of the fact that the market was bracing for a hot CPI knowing that not only was the Fed but economists were warning that we'd start to see inflation coming through uh in the July CPI report. So, I think i ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin is consolidating around 119,000, while altcoins are becoming active due to market manipulation aimed at recovering more Bitcoin [1] - Recent data shows 116,685 individuals were liquidated in the last 24 hours, totaling $522 million [1] Market Trends - The CPI data is favorable for interest rate cuts, with a 91.8% probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] - Ethereum (ETH) has surpassed $4,400, reaching a new high since January 2022, driven by bmnr funds [1][6] - XMR faced a 51% attack, revealing security risks, with a leverage of 3 billion impacting 50 billion [1] Altcoin Opportunities - CEX is recommended for monitoring SOL and SUI as potential investments [2] - The meme coin market shows mixed performance, with some coins like SPARK and PEPE rising while others struggle [1] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin's daily K-line shows an upward trend, with key support levels at 118,900, 118,000, and 117,000, while targets are set at 120,000, 121,000, and 122,000 [3][5] - Ethereum's upward momentum continues, with support levels at 4,580, 4,500, and 4,470, and targets at 4,680, 4,750, and 5,000 [6][8] Investment Strategies - Focus on E-ecosystem related projects, particularly in staking and DeFi sectors, as they may see increased activity [10] - Small-cap projects in the BN Alpha sector are showing rapid gains, with examples of MYX and XNY achieving significant returns in short timeframes [10] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is cautious, with many retail investors hesitant to hold altcoins due to previous losses, impacting their willingness to invest [8] - OKB has seen a significant increase, with a 249-fold rise over five years, following a major token burn [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the stage high on October 8, 2024. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has significantly rebounded for three consecutive trading days, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time since March. Most industry sectors rose, with the communication sector strengthening significantly and the banking sector leading the decline. Domestically, the economic fundamentals showed that the CPI turned from a decline to an increase in July, and the core CPI increase has expanded for three consecutive months. The month-on-month decline of PPI narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, and the year-on-year decline remained the same as last month, with the PPI-CPI scissors gap narrowing slightly. The stabilization of domestic demand and the effectiveness of industrial policies have driven the month-on-month growth of PPI and CPI. In terms of sentiment, S&P maintained China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and the outlook at "stable". At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices have further increased based on the semi-annual reports of listed companies disclosed so far. In terms of funds, northbound capital transactions have been continuously active, and QFII has further increased its positions in A-share listed companies. Overall, the stabilization of prices has a repairing effect on corporate profits and investment confidence. Currently, the market focus has shifted to the semi-annual reports of listed companies. The net profit growth rates of the four broad-based indices are all showing positive growth, and the improvement of the fundamentals of some listed companies supports the stock market. However, one must be vigilant against the drag on the index performance caused by the decline in the profits of companies that have not yet released their financial reports. At the same time, with the high valuation of US stocks, A-shares with relatively reasonable valuations continue to attract foreign capital inflows, injecting incremental funds into the market. Finally, S&P's attitude towards China's sovereign credit rating has also strengthened market confidence. Strategically, it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2509) latest price is 4170.8, up 42.2; IF sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 4181.2, up 40.0. IH main contract (2509) latest price is 2818.8, up 9.8; IH sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 2818.0, up 9.2. IC main contract (2509) latest price is 6451.8, up 113.0; IC sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 6505.8, up 100.6. IM main contract (2509) latest price is 7001.8, up 122.0; IM sub-main contract (2508) latest price is 7064.2, up 113.4. Various spreads and differences between different contracts also showed corresponding changes [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net positions are -28,998.00, up 1645.0; IH top 20 net positions are -17,875.00, up 415.0; IC top 20 net positions are -16,519.00, up 255.0; IM top 20 net positions are -55,549.00, up 3154.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 is 4176.58, up 32.8; SSE 50 is 2812.98, up 6.0; CSI 500 is 6508.10, up 89.9; CSI 1000 is 7064.33, up 100.7. A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) is 21,752.11, up 2700.00; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 20,345.33, up 83.35. Northbound trading total (previous trading day, billion yuan) is 2365.34, up 95.34 [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) changed from -376.99 to -70.99. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) is 50.39, up 11.94. Shibor (daily, %) is 1.315, unchanged. IO at-the-money call option closing price (2508) is 11.60, up 6.20; IO at-the-money call option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, up 0.18. IO at-the-money put option closing price (2508) is 31.40, down 32.40; IO at-the-money put option implied volatility (%) is 13.16, down 0.34 [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares score is 6.10, up 1.00; technical aspect score is 5.00, up 1.20; capital aspect score is 7.20, up 0.80 [2] 4. Key Data to be Focused on - China's July financial data (to be determined); US July PPI and core PPI on August 14 at 20:30; China's July industrial added value above designated size, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, and real estate data on August 15 at 10:00 [3]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Analysis - In July, Guangdong's CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it shifted from a decrease of 0.2% in June to an increase of 0.5% [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from June [1] - Food prices fell by 1.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.21 percentage points to the CPI decline, while non-food prices decreased by 0.1%, impacting the CPI by about 0.07 percentage points [2] Group 2: Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) Analysis - The PPI in Guangdong decreased by 2.0% year-on-year in July, with the decline widening by 0.2 percentage points compared to June; month-on-month, it fell by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [1][4] - The average PPI for January to July showed a decrease of 1.4%, while the Industrial Producer Purchase Price Index (IPI) fell by 2.8% [1] - In the PPI survey, 38 major industries showed 8 increases, 29 decreases, and 1 stable, with an industry increase rate of 21.1%, down by 7.8 percentage points from June [4][5] Group 3: Sector-Specific Price Movements - Significant price changes were noted in various sectors, with educational and sports equipment manufacturing prices rising by 12.5%, while black metal mining and related industries saw declines of 18.0% and 12.0%, respectively [4] - The automotive manufacturing sector experienced a 1.6% price drop, influenced by the decline in fuel vehicle prices due to competition from the new energy vehicle market [5]

每经AI快讯，8月13日消息，德国7月CPI同比增长2%，预期2%；7月CPI环比增长0.3%，预期0.3%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Inflation & Tariffs - The report suggests that tariffs' impact on goods inflation was not significant in the current CPI print [2] - Services inflation showed broad-based gains, raising concerns about overall inflation [3] - The expectation is that the impact of tariffs on inflation will increase in the second half of the year [4] - Corporations may initially absorb tariff costs, but will eventually pass them on to consumers, particularly in sectors with low margins like groceries [10][11] - Uncertainty remains regarding the ultimate tariff rate and its full impact on the economy [11] Monetary Policy & Fed - The market anticipates an aggressive path of rate cuts, which is reflected in equity market performance [5] - The analyst suggests the Fed should consider only one or two rate cuts this year due to inflation concerns [3] - Political factors and dovish Fed governors could influence the Fed's decisions [5] - The analyst believes reason will prevail within the Fed committee, leading to rate cuts, but potentially only 25 basis points [6][7] - A 25 basis point rate cut may not significantly benefit the mortgage market or other interest rate-sensitive sectors if the 10-year yield rises [7] Bond Market & Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield is expected to range between 350 and 400 basis points (35%-4%) due to aggressive policy easing already priced in [14] - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to remain range-bound between 400 and 450 basis points (4%-45%) [14] - The 30-year Treasury yield is more volatile and dependent on global bond yields [14][15]

Inflation Analysis - CPI came in at 27%, seemingly above target, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index runs lower at 22% to 24% [1][2] - Annualized inflation based on a six-month basis since Trump took office shows 19% [2] - Energy prices are down and food prices are flat, indicating positive signs [2] - Shelter costs are up, but this is considered a lagging indicator [3] Tariff Impact and Trade - Foreign countries, especially those with large trade deficits with the US, are absorbing the tariffs because the US is their biggest market [9][10] - Goldman Sachs' research indicates that US consumers have absorbed about 22% of tariff costs, while businesses absorbed 64% [11] Data Trust and Government Reports - The speaker expresses distrust in BLS data, citing past inaccuracies that punished Trump's administration and inflated figures during Biden's term [17][18] - There's a suggestion to rely more on private research, questioning the government's role in providing economic data [16] Economic Outlook and Policy - The message to Jay Powell is to acknowledge the positive inflation situation [4] - Concerns are raised about Jay Powell's performance, citing three major blunders costing the economy tens of billions of dollars [22]