Group 1 - The State Council's executive meeting focuses on boosting consumption and regulating competition in the new energy vehicle (NEV) industry as key areas for economic stability and growth [1][3] - The meeting emphasizes the importance of removing unreasonable restrictions on consumer spending, such as car purchase limits, to unlock consumer potential [3] - A call for optimizing the trade-in policy for consumer goods is made to align with diverse consumer demands and expand investments in new production capabilities and emerging service industries [3] Group 2 - The NEV industry is facing irrational competition, which has become a governance focus, prompting the need for stricter regulations on cost investigations and price monitoring [4] - Key automotive companies, including FAW, Dongfeng, and GAC, have committed to maintaining payment terms of no more than 60 days to support healthy industry development [4] - Future measures to combat "involution" in the industry will be led by government departments with industry self-regulation as a supplementary approach [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - In June 2025, the total retail sales in China reached 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which is below market expectations of 5.6% [4]. - The online retail sales growth slowed down due to the preemptive timing of the 618 shopping festival, while offline retail continues to show stable growth [4]. - The service consumption sector is experiencing rapid growth, supported by government policies, although restaurant revenue growth has declined [4]. - The "trade-in" policy continues to show effectiveness, with basic necessities demonstrating resilience, while gold and silver sales growth has slowed down due to seasonal factors [4]. - The report anticipates that the upcoming summer tourism season and the third round of trade-in subsidies will further stimulate domestic consumption [4]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - June retail sales grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a total of 4.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales also grew by 4.8%, with a month-on-month decline of 2.2 percentage points [4]. Online and Offline Consumption - Online retail sales for the first half of 2025 increased by 8.5%, outpacing the overall retail growth by 3.5 percentage points [4]. - The online penetration rate remained stable at 26.8% in June, unchanged from the previous year [4]. Service Consumption - The service sector's production index rose by 6.0% year-on-year in June, with retail sales in the service sector growing by 5.3% [4]. - Restaurant revenue in June was 470.8 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of only 0.9% due to seasonal factors [4]. Policy Impact - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate spending, with urban retail sales reaching 3.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [4]. - The trade-in policy has led to significant sales in consumer electronics, with related sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan by late June [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on e-commerce and instant retail sectors, particularly companies like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, as well as quality jewelry brands benefiting from gold demand recovery [4]. - It also highlights opportunities in the travel industry and retail sectors that enhance in-store experiences [4].

Core Insights - The most scarce resource in today's world is the market, and China has a vast market space with strong growth potential [1] - China is home to the largest middle-income group globally, with a projected per capita GDP of approximately 96,000 yuan in 2024, making it the second-largest consumer and import market [1] - In the first half of 2025, the sales generated from five categories of consumer goods through trade-in programs reached 1.6 trillion yuan, surpassing the total sales of 1.3 trillion yuan for the entire year of 2024 [1] Market Structure - There is significant potential for service demand, with per capita service consumption expenditure expected to account for 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure in 2024, indicating substantial growth opportunities [1] - Rapid growth is observed in service demands such as elderly care, childcare, and domestic services, with only 2.8% of elderly individuals aged 60 and above having access to care facilities [1] - Over 30% of families with children under three years old have a demand for childcare services, yet the current enrollment rate for such services is only 7.9% [1]

Core Insights - Beijing's consumption has entered its fifth era, focusing on spiritual satisfaction, emotional resonance, and social value creation [1][3] - The "Action Plan" aims for an average annual growth of around 5% in total market consumption by 2030, with 24 policy measures to boost consumption [3][4] Consumption Trends - Service consumption is growing, particularly in information services and cultural entertainment, with a 4.9% increase [4] - The shift from product-oriented consumption to service-oriented consumption is evident, with a forecast that service consumption will account for 47% of total consumption by 2024 [4][5] - The Z generation is becoming the main consumer group, driving emotional consumption trends and a preference for domestic brands [6][7] Market Dynamics - The consumption landscape is evolving from standardized supply to precise demand matching, with a notable rise in outdoor and lifestyle brands [6][7] - The market is experiencing a transformation towards a composite model of "service + experience + technology," indicating a shift in consumer preferences [7][8] Technological Impact - Technology is becoming a core driver of high-quality development, with the durable consumer goods market expected to reach 24 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 5% [8] - The integration of traditional cultural elements with modern design is enhancing brand value and local cultural identity [9] Policy and Economic Context - The "Action Plan" outlines a vision for Beijing to become an international consumption center, emphasizing the need for proactive consumption creation [9][3] - The focus on optimizing indicators, innovating scenarios, and supporting policies is crucial for uncovering the dual potential of rational and emotional value in consumption [3][4]

Core Insights - The potential direction for consumption growth in China stems from both the increase in marginal propensity to consume and the structural opportunities in service consumption and lower-tier markets [1][3]. Group 1: Marginal Propensity to Consume - The current marginal propensity to consume in China is estimated at 66%, significantly lower than the 88% observed in the United States [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that the marginal propensity to consume is a variable influenced by macroeconomic cycles, fiscal policies, and income expectations [2]. - If the marginal propensity to consume increases to 70% by 2029, it could add approximately 7.1 trillion yuan to the consumption scale, while a rise to 75% could result in an additional 14.9 trillion yuan [3][7]. Group 2: Service Consumption Expansion - In 2024, service consumption accounts for 43% of total household consumption in China, which is significantly lower than the 69% in the U.S. [8]. - If the service consumption share increases to 53% by 2029, it could theoretically add 14.9 trillion yuan to the consumption scale, reaching a total of approximately 245 trillion yuan [8][9]. Group 3: Income Distribution and Rural Consumption - Rural residents exhibit a higher marginal propensity to consume at 86%, compared to 55% for urban residents, indicating stronger consumption willingness among rural populations [9]. - If the annual growth rate of rural disposable income increases from 8% to 10% or 12%, it could contribute an additional 3.5 trillion yuan or 7.2 trillion yuan to consumption, respectively [10]. Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - To enhance consumption levels and structural quality, the focus should be on developing service consumption, improving social security systems, reforming income distribution, and supporting rural consumption policies [13][14].

淘宝闪购宣布启动规模500亿元的补贴计划，在未来12个月直补消费者及商家。500亿补贴由平台出资， 无需商家投入 近日，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布，日订单数超过8000万。电商平台真金白银投入，既能给消费者带来 优惠、便捷的服务和体验，同时促进商家获得更多客流、保证利润，有望为消费市场开拓一片可观的增 量空间。 客商在第 136 届广交会的阿里巴巴国际站展台参观洽谈（2024 年 10 月 17 日摄） 刘大伟摄 / 本刊 线上流量反哺线下服务业 "苏超"赛事期间，苏州、南京等城市小龙虾、卤菜、绿豆汤等夜宵外卖搜索量环比增长超2倍，地区夜 经济的活力在热点效应、巨大的线上流量的双重加持下，获得了进一步释放 "提振服务消费能够带动更多中小商家，带动更多就业。商家活了，就业好了，又会有更强的消费能 力，形成一个正向循环。" 文 | 睿闻 消费是拉动经济增长的主引擎。2024年中央经济工作会议将"大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩 大国内需求"列为2025年经济工作的首要任务。今年3月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《提振 消费专项行动方案》，把"服务消费提质惠民行动"作为提振消费的一项重要工作。 大力提振服务 ...

日前，北京市人民政府印发《北京市深化改革提振消费专项行动方案》(以下简称《方案》)，围绕六个 方面提出24项任务。其中一方面是优化服务消费体验。《方案》明确提出，挖掘文娱消费新内涵、打造 旅游消费新场景、激发体育消费新活力、满足教育培训新需求、培育美丽健康消费新引擎、提供家政服 务新供给。 服务消费，一头连着经济，一头连着民生，涵盖餐饮住宿、家政服务、养老托育、文娱旅游、教育体 育、居住服务、健康服务等多个领域。除了北京外，近期还有多地密集出台提振消费专项行动方案。 值得一提的是，6月份，中国人民银行等六部门联合印发《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意 见》，其中除了提到前期已经设立的服务消费和养老再贷款工具外，还明确提出支持发展服务消费，通 过加大对服务消费重点领域信贷支持力度等一系列举措，助力挖掘释放服务消费潜力。 罗志恒认为，提振服务消费需要从需求端的收入保障和供给端的质量提升两个方面同时发力，通过系统 性政策组合推动服务消费实现高质量发展。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，服务消费的重要性日益凸显。在宏 观经济层面，服务消费是稳增长、稳就业、稳民生的重要抓手；在区域发展层面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic demand remains the primary engine for China's economic growth, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, contributing around 30% to global economic growth [1][2] - Over the past four years, China's economic growth averaged 5.5%, with domestic demand contributing an average of 86.4% to this growth [1][2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand, enhance consumption, and improve investment efficiency [1][2] Group 2 - Investment and consumption are mutually reinforcing, with domestic demand being the main driver of China's economic development [2][3] - In the past four years, final consumption contributed an average of 56.2% to economic growth, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period [2] - Investment capital formation contributed an average of 30.2% to economic growth, focusing on addressing key issues in modernization and enhancing long-term development [3] Group 3 - Service consumption has emerged as a new highlight, with service retail sales growing by 6.2% year-on-year in 2024, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points [4] - Per capita spending on services increased by 7.4% year-on-year, contributing 63% to the growth of per capita consumption expenditure [4] - The share of per capita service consumption in total consumption reached 46.1%, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [4][5] Group 4 - The development of service consumption is expected to create more job opportunities and improve income growth, with a focus on new consumption trends such as the "silver economy" and "ice and snow economy" [7][8] - Policies to promote service consumption have been implemented, including financial support for key service sectors [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" includes 102 major infrastructure projects aimed at enhancing economic circulation and improving living standards [9][10] Group 5 - The government aims to address structural issues in consumption, such as the low proportion of consumption in GDP and the high share of state-owned capital in national assets [13][14] - Recommendations include reforms to improve consumer spending, such as adjusting consumption tax structures and enhancing public services for rural populations [13][14] - The focus on "investing in people" through structural reforms is seen as essential for expanding domestic demand and improving income distribution [14]

Group 1 - The Sichuan province is launching a service consumption season with over 1.6 million quality life service providers participating, aiming to create more than 100 activities across 21 cities and counties [5][6] - The service consumption season includes five thematic activities: "Trendy Summer," "Delicious Summer," "Comfortable Summer," "Travel Summer," and "Shopping Summer," totaling 115 unique events [6][7] - The "Trendy Summer" activity will integrate event economy with cultural tourism, featuring major events like the third esports competition in Luzhou [6][7] Group 2 - The "Delicious Summer" activity will showcase local culinary delights through events such as the Beer and Lobster Festival and the Daliangshan Barbecue Food Festival, promoting Sichuan's authentic flavors [6][7] - The "Comfortable Summer" activity will offer discounts on accommodations and host high-quality cultural leisure projects like music festivals and night tours [7] - The "Travel Summer" activity will focus on family-friendly and educational summer experiences, including various cultural festivals [7] Group 3 - The "Shopping Summer" activity will highlight Sichuan's specialty products, featuring a dedicated exhibition for local crafts and delicacies at the World Games Village [7][11] - During the World Games, ticket holders can enjoy discounts on dining, accommodation, and shopping, with over 140 restaurants and various hotels participating in the promotion [10] - A "Ticket Root Discount Map" will be available for visitors to easily access discount information, enhancing the overall consumer experience [10]

Group 1 - The main consumption index (000932) has shown a strong increase of 1.31%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Shengnong Development (002299) up 4.70% and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) up 3.86% [3] - The major consumption ETF (159672) has risen by 1.32%, with a latest price of 0.77 yuan, and has accumulated a weekly increase of 0.53% as of July 8, 2025 [3] - The liquidity of the major consumption ETF is reflected in a turnover rate of 3.76% and a transaction volume of 280.22 million yuan [3] Group 2 - Recent policies in the consumption sector are favorable, with a focus on service consumption as a core strategy for expanding domestic demand by 2025 [4] - The major consumption ETF has seen a net value increase of 4.70% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 24.35% since its inception [4] - The major consumption ETF's maximum drawdown this year is 6.82%, which is relatively low compared to its benchmark [4] Group 3 - The management fee for the major consumption ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, making it one of the lowest in its category [5] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 18.74, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past year [5] - The top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index account for 67.93% of the total index, with notable companies including Yili Group (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5]