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金观平:扩大内需与扩大开放并不矛盾
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 09:07
Core Viewpoint - The relationship between expanding domestic demand and opening up to the outside world is crucial for China's economic response to various risks and challenges, ensuring a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" and achieving high-quality development [1] Group 1: Importance of Domestic Demand - Domestic demand is the fundamental driving force for China's economic development, with the central economic work conference prioritizing "domestic demand as the mainstay, building a strong domestic market" as a key task for 2026, highlighting the urgency of expanding domestic demand [1] - A strong and stable domestic demand market provides a "strategic depth" for expanding openness, as substantial domestic consumption and investment can absorb international quality goods and services, smoothing economic fluctuations and enhancing China's voice in the international economic system [1] Group 2: Synergy Between Domestic Demand and Openness - Expanding domestic demand and opening up are not contradictory; rather, they are mutually reinforcing and form an organic unity that drives sustainable economic development [2] - A smoother domestic circulation creates a gravitational field for global resources, facilitating the construction of a new development pattern that promotes both domestic and international dual circulation [2] - Historical growth periods in China's economy have coincided with coordinated expansion of domestic demand and openness, indicating that this synergy is both a historical lesson and a current necessity [2] Group 3: Balancing Demand and Supply - Correctly handling the relationship between expanding domestic demand and opening up requires achieving a higher-level dynamic balance where demand drives supply and supply creates demand [3] - Achieving this balance is challenging, as historical lessons remind that expanding domestic demand should adhere to market-oriented reforms, breaking industry monopolies and local protectionism to ensure growth is based on efficiency and innovation [3] - When expanding openness, it is essential to coordinate development and security within a robust risk prevention system to ensure the stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy [3]
消费继续发力 明年继续“国补”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 05:49
行情上,上周五三大指数再度全线收红,沪指迎8连阳,做多情绪超预期升温。量能中枢修复到2万亿, 在宏观不确定性落地后,3800点有资金面的保护信号,上周市场对人民币汇率破7和宽基的冲量流入都 给了正面反馈。周末消息偏中性,国内全国财政工作会议指出扩大财政支出盘子,产业上还是聚焦在商 业航天和机器人上。结构上,上周除了商业航天超预期强势外,多数板块尤其是前期低位科技题材都有 机会。操作上,保持好仓位,跟随趋势,大概率节后可能有震荡低吸机会。观点仅供参考,投资有风 险,入市需谨慎。 机构观点方面,申万宏源认为,短期A股连续上涨,体现出流动性驱动的特征。部分投资者预期中证 A500ETF年底冲量,年初可能有所反复,市场可能随之反复。但我们认为春季行情有利条件不变:首 先,股市流动性宽松:私募逢低有集中申购,保险开门红,人民币汇率升值利好股市流动性;其次,支 撑风险偏好的时间窗口连续,2月春节、3月两会、4月特朗普可能访华。2026年风格节奏判断:春季科 技和顺周期只有Alpha机会,主题活跃,对应小盘成长占优。后续,2026年二季度磨底阶段,科技和先 进制造有基本面Alpha逻辑方向可能先于牛市启动。2026年下半年 ...
财政部:明年继续安排“国补”支持以旧换新
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 03:25
会议指出,明年财政将促进居民就业增收,支持办好人民满意的教育,提高医疗卫生服务保障水平,完 善社会保障体系,在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间。明年要坚持稳扎稳打与大胆探索相结合,深化财税 体制改革。坚持管好资产与用好资产相结合,推动健全国有资产管理体系。坚持精准发现问题与有效解 决问题相结合,不断加强财会监督工作。 据新华社北京12月28日电 大力提振消费,深入实施提振消费专项行动,继续安排资金支持消费品以旧 换新;积极扩大有效投资,加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入;加快推进全国统一大市 场建设,规范税收优惠、财政补贴政策……12月27日至28日,在北京举行的全国财政工作会议透露了明 年财政支持扩大内需的部署安排。 会议明确,明年财政工作的六方面重点任务:坚持内需主导,支持建设强大国内市场;支持科技创新和 产业创新深度融合,加快培育壮大新动能;推进城乡融合和区域联动,拓展发展空间;进一步强化保基 本、兜底线,切实加强民生保障;推动经济社会发展全面绿色转型,加快建设美丽中国;加强国际财经 交流合作,支持扩大高水平对外开放。 ...
《云南日报》刊评:深入挖掘投资和消费潜力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 03:16
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging investment and consumption to stimulate economic growth in Yunnan Province, aligning with national policies to create a robust domestic market and support the new development pattern [7]. Investment and Consumption Potential - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is identified as a critical time for Yunnan's development, focusing on enhancing investment and consumption as dual drivers to unlock market potential [6][9]. - Investment is highlighted as a stabilizing force for growth and a catalyst for structural adjustment, with a focus on infrastructure and human capital [9]. - Specific sectors for investment include transportation, water conservancy, agriculture, tourism, and energy, with an emphasis on improving public services in education, healthcare, and cultural sectors [9]. Economic Growth and Structural Adjustment - The article notes that Yunnan's economy has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, with a target for further growth in 2024 [3]. - The province's real estate market is seen as a key area for expanding investment and consumption, with sales growth outpacing the national average by 9.2 percentage points from January to November 2025 [10]. Consumer Market Activation - New consumption scenarios and business models are essential for unlocking consumer potential, with a focus on integrating Yunnan's unique natural and cultural resources into tourism and wellness experiences [9]. - The example of Tengchong shows a 42% increase in tourism numbers and a rise in per capita spending to 13,000 yuan, indicating significant potential in the tourism sector [9]. Real Estate Market Development - The real estate sector is positioned as a priority for investment and consumption, particularly given Yunnan's urbanization rate is below the national average, suggesting substantial growth opportunities [10]. - Strategies include designing housing that meets the needs of urbanizing populations and enhancing marketing efforts to stimulate market activity [10].
以有效产能出清解决行业内耗难题
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-12-29 02:21
本文字数:1755,阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 一财评论员 提高经济运行质量已到了亟须优化发力路径的关键阶段。 国家统计局数据显示,前11个月,全国规上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元,同比增长0.1%,其中 11月份同比下降13.1%;前11个月,规上工业企业实现营业收入125.34万亿元,同比增长1.6%,发生营 业成本107.17万亿元,增长1.8%,营业收入利润率为5.29%,同比下降0.08个百分点。 在当前内外环境不确定性持续加剧的大背景下,规上工业企业顶住压力,迎难而上,取得如此成绩可谓 来之不易。尽管规上工业企业的营业收入同比小幅增长、营业收入利润率未能同步跟进,但亮点也相当 明显,如规上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%,拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点;规上高技 术制造业利润前11个月同比增长10.0%,较前10个月加快2.0个百分点,增速高于全部规上工业平均水平 9.9个百分点。这些数据凸显出当前经济正处于新旧动能转换、爬坡升级的尖峰时刻。 2025.12.29 此外,推动企业走出增产不增收的困局,关键是改革,在经济整体上打破垄断,基于需求端而非资产端 来展现国家战 ...
以有效产能出清解决行业内耗难题
第一财经· 2025-12-29 02:08
在当前内外环境不确定性持续加剧的大背景下,规上工业企业顶住压力,迎难而上,取得如此成绩可 谓来之不易。尽管规上工业企业的营业收入同比小幅增长、营业收入利润率未能同步跟进,但亮点也 相当明显,如规上装备制造业利润同比增长7.7%,拉动全部规上工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点; 规上高技术制造业利润前11个月同比增长10.0%,较前10个月加快2.0个百分点,增速高于全部规 上工业平均水平9.9个百分点。这些数据凸显出当前经济正处于新旧动能转换、爬坡升级的尖峰时 刻。 经济在爬坡升级中,新生力量虽朝气蓬勃,但对整个经济的支撑能力尚有限,要保持经济行稳致远, 对现有经济结构进行有效的损益分析和风险管控是必要前提。 当前经济工作需存量化险与增量助推两手布局。最新数据反映出规上工业企业的存量化险工作任务较 重。11月末,规上工业企业应收账款28.40万亿元,同比增长5.5%;产成品存货6.92万亿元,增长 4.6%;产成品存货周转天数同比增加0.6天;应收账款平均回收期同比增加3.7天。1~11月,规上 工业企业每百元营业收入中的成本为85.50元,同比增加0.18元。这些数据背后凸显的是,稍有不 慎,存量资产就面临不良 ...
民生银行:为助力河北高质量发展注入金融新动能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 01:27
民生银行自扎根燕赵大地27年来,始终坚守"服务大众、情系民生"的企业使命,聚焦"民营企业的银 行、敏捷开放的银行、用心服务的银行"战略定位,坚持与国家战略同频,与区域发展共振,用心用情 服务河北省经济社会发展大局。 截至目前,民生银行石家庄分行营业网点达120家,客户服务触角不断延伸,已累计服务个人客户570万 余户、中小微客户20万余户、公司客户2万余户,真正把便民、惠民、利民的金融服务带到客户身边, 助力河北省高质量发展。 胸怀国之大者,全力服务重大战略取得新进展 京津冀协同发展、雄安新区建设等国家重大战略在河北省相继落地,成为推动区域协调发展、打造新增 长极的核心引擎。民生银行石家庄分行将服务重大战略作为践行"国之大者"的使命担当,为保障国家重 大战略由蓝图变为现实注入源源不断的金融活水。 坚持金融为民,用心书写服务民生改善新篇章 全力支持京津冀协同发展。民生银行总行层面成立京津冀地区业务发展委员会,集总行以及北京、天 津、石家庄三家分行之力,对于涉及京津冀协同发展的重大项目,配置"五位一体"业务团队,实现快速 响应、快速落地。截至11月末,该行累计投放各项贷款270亿元,助力京津冀交通一体化等重大项目 ...
扩大财政支出盘子继续实施“国补”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 00:38
大力提振消费,深入实施提振消费专项行动,继续安排资金支持消费品以旧换新;积极扩大有效投资, 加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入;加快推进全国统一大市场建设,规范税收优惠、财 政补贴政策……会议围绕明年财政支持扩大内需作出部署。 "我国内需市场潜力巨大,财政要在扩大内需、畅通经济循环中积极发挥作用。"财政部部长蓝佛安在会 上说。 据新华社电 12月27日至28日,全国财政工作会议在北京举行。会议指出,明年将扩大财政支出盘子, 确保必要支出力度;优化政府债券工具组合,更好发挥债券效益;提高转移支付资金效能,增强地方自 主可用财力;持续优化支出结构,强化重点领域保障;加强财政金融协同,放大政策效能。 此次会议还明确了明年财政工作的6方面重点任务。其中包括坚持内需主导,支持建设强大国内市场; 支持科技创新和产业创新深度融合,加快培育壮大新动能;推进城乡融合和区域联动,拓展发展空间。 同时,明年财政重点工作还将聚焦以下方面:进一步强化保基本、兜底线,切实加强民生保障;推动经 济社会发展全面绿色转型,加快建设美丽中国;加强国际财经交流合作,支持扩大高水平对外开放。 蓝佛安说,明年财政将促进居民就业增收,支持办好 ...
为未来中国拓展“增量空间” ——我国脱贫地区新观察
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 00:28
(一) 历史,往往在经过时间沉淀后可以看得更加清晰。 中国打赢脱贫攻坚战的重大意义正日益彰显,这是中国式现代化进程中的重要里程碑,标志着实现全体 人民共同富裕迈出了坚实的一大步,对促进世界现代化产生着深远影响。 "十五五"规划建议牢牢把握共同富裕的目标要求,围绕保障和改善民生部署一批均衡性、可及性强的政 策举措。中央经济工作会议提出"必须坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合",要求"持续巩固拓展脱贫攻 坚成果"。 "十四五"时期,民生领域财政投入占全国一般公共预算支出70%以上。推动更多资金资源"投资于人", 体现的是民生为大的发展旨归。 当此之际,我们再次学习领会习近平总书记2024年11月在二十国集团领导人里约热内卢峰会上发表的关 于"抗击饥饿与贫困"议题重要讲话《建设一个共同发展的公正世界》,更加深刻领悟到中国共产党人的 初心使命。 "中国始终坚持以人民为中心,庄严承诺'决不能落下一个贫困地区、一个贫困群众'。" "我先后在中国的村、县、市、省、中央工作,扶贫是工作的一个重要内容,也是我立志要办成的一件 大事。" "中国可以成功,其他发展中国家同样可以成功。这是中国成功打赢脱贫攻坚战的世界意义。" "立志要办 ...
财政政策如何继续“更加积极”:扩大财政支出盘子,强化重点领域保障
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-12-29 00:28
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on expanding fiscal expenditure and optimizing spending structures to support economic growth and ensure a strong start to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The government aims to enhance domestic demand and support the construction of a robust domestic market, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption through various initiatives [1] - Plans include funding for consumer incentives, optimizing personal consumption loan interest subsidies, and promoting new consumption models [1][2] - There will be a continued focus on effective investment in key areas such as new productivity and comprehensive human development [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Social Welfare - Fiscal funds will be directed towards infrastructure investments and social welfare to reduce consumer concerns and stimulate spending [2] - The issuance of long-term special government bonds is expected to support major national projects and increase investment demand [2] - There will be a shift in fiscal spending towards improving living standards and enhancing consumer confidence [2] Group 3: Technological and Industrial Innovation - The government plans to increase fiscal investment in technology and strengthen the role of enterprises in innovation [2] - Policies will be implemented to support the integration of technological and industrial innovation, including financial incentives for technology adoption and application [2] - The focus will be on developing a modern industrial system and promoting high-quality development in key manufacturing sectors [2] Group 4: Social Security and Regional Development - Strengthening social security and ensuring basic living standards will be a priority, with measures to increase residents' income through various channels [3] - The government will promote urban-rural integration and regional coordination, supporting rural revitalization and enhancing agricultural productivity [3] - Fiscal policies will be adjusted to facilitate public services that are portable and accessible, promoting coordinated development in major regions [3]