Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3876.37 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.29% to 13053.97 points, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.17% to 3107.06 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.66 trillion, with nearly 2900 stocks rising [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Bank stocks experienced a broad increase, with Shanghai Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 3% [1] Retail Sector - Retail concepts showed strength, with Central Plaza and Shanghai Jiubai hitting the daily limit [1] Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with multiple stocks including Shengyang Technology and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [1][2] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector continued to perform well, with stocks like Luyan Pharmaceutical and Zhongyao Holdings hitting the daily limit [1][3] Consumer Sector - The consumer sector, including retail, apparel, and food and beverage, led the gains, with stocks like Baida Group achieving six consecutive limits [1][4] Institutional Insights Economic Policy Outlook - Everbright Securities anticipates a favorable cross-year market for A-shares, supported by ongoing domestic economic policies and historical performance trends [5] - Huaxi Securities suggests focusing on the consumer sector as technology rotation slows down, with an emphasis on the high-low cut logic [6] - Bank of China Securities views A-shares as being in a "bull market continuation" phase, highlighting the importance of technology and anti-involution themes for future investment [7]

国家统计局12月15日数据显示，11月份国民经济延续稳中有进发展态势。在以习近平同志为核心的党中 央坚强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署， 坚持稳中求进工作总基调，深 入实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，着力推动高质量发展，生产供给基本 平稳，就业形势总体稳定，市场价格继续改善，新质生产力稳步发展，经济运行延续总体平稳、稳中有 进发展态势。 看消费，中国经济底色厚实。消费是经济发展的"压舱石"，稳住经济基本盘关键在于稳定消费。今年以 来，扩大内需和提振消费也已经成为了经济工作的主线。一系列政策措施作用下，消费市场潜力持续释 放。从相关统计数据来看，11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；1-11月份，社会 消费品零售总额456067亿元，同比增长4.0%。中央经济工作会议提出，2026年要深入实施提振消费专 项行动，扩大优质商品和服务供给。可以肯定，随着消费潜力持续释放，中国经济底色将更加厚实。 发展是硬道理，高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务。从11月份各项统计数据来看， 国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。我国经济潜力 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong consumer sector experienced slight fluctuations, with the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) showing a minor decline of approximately 0.5% [1] - Key stocks that performed well include Zhenjiu Lidu, Xtep International, Master Kong Holdings, Uni-President China, and China Feihe, while stocks like Xiaocaiyuan, Miniso, KANAT Optical, and Jingyuan International saw significant declines [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand domestically, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand as a top priority for China's economic work in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice on December 14, proposing 11 policy measures to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption across various sectors [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that the consumer sector's valuation has reached a relatively low level, suggesting a reduced expectation for policy changes and a need to focus on new consumption driven by domestic demand [1] - Related popular ETFs include the Tourism ETF (562510) benefiting from holiday catalysts and the Ice and Snow Economy, the Food and Beverage ETF (515170) focusing on boosting domestic demand, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) linked to e-commerce leaders and new consumption trends [2]

中央经济工作会议强调，2026年我国将坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 消费活力如何进一步激发？货币政策有何发力空间？人民币汇率怎么走？这些都是理解"十五五"经济脉络的关键切口，也是监管的必答题。围 绕上述问题，北京商报记者专访了广开首席产业研究院首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长连平。 2025年，站在"十四五"收官与"十五五"规划谋篇的历史衔接点上，宏观经济环境交织着机遇与挑战。 全球经济在波动中前行，中国金融市场在多重政策合力下展现出新的韧性与活力。人民银行延续流动性宽松的基调，通过降准、降息等工具为 经济修复提供支持，货币政策与财政政策协调配合，金融"五篇大文章"系统推进，一系列举措旨在打通经济循环、激发内需潜力、优化金融供 给。 2026年我国将扩大优质消费品和服务供给，培育壮大新的消费增长点，积极打造消费新场景，把扩大消费与因地制宜发展新质生产力结合起 来。一是深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计划。优化"两新"政策实施，"国补"额度有望在2025年基础上适度 ...

Group 1 - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary task for the upcoming year [4][5] - There is a notable "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies focus on maintaining cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for effective consumption support policies include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work meeting proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, focusing on demand-side short-term adjustments and supply-side structural improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4][5] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The construction of a modern industrial system is highlighted as a crucial aspect of cross-cyclical policies, focusing on upgrading traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors [5][6] - There is a call for deeper market-oriented reforms to stimulate microeconomic vitality and establish a unified national market, which is essential for effective policy transmission [6]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 18 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，1 美联储理事沃勒 | | | 表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有 50 至 100 个基点的降息空间，但无需 | | | 急于行动，将以稳步、渐进方式把利率引向中性。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示， | | 铜 | 扩大内需是明年排在首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面， | | | LME 铜库存增加 325 吨至 166925 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 2130 吨至 414575 吨；SHFE | | | 铜仓单下降 907 吨至 44877 吨；BC 铜下降 797 吨至 6180 吨。日央行会议召开在即，宏 | | | 观存在一定扰动，海外金融市场波动或抑制风险情绪，短线谨慎为上。 | | | 隔夜氧化铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AO2601 收于 2573 元/吨，涨幅 0.9%，持仓减仓 4202 手至 | | | 17.6 万手。沪铝震荡偏强，隔夜 AL2602 收于 2 ...

Market Performance - The three major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component down 1.85%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.81% [1] - Over 3,600 stocks rose in the two markets, with a total trading volume of 1.05 trillion [1] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace concept saw a resurgence, with stocks like Shengyang Technology and Shunhao Co. hitting the daily limit [3] - The consumer sector strengthened, particularly in retail, with Central Plaza and Shanghai Jiubai reaching the daily limit [3] - The IP economy concept was active, with stocks such as Guobo Co. and Sanxiang Impression hitting the daily limit [3] - The AI healthcare concept experienced fluctuations, with Huaren Health rising by 20% and hitting the daily limit [3] - The lithium battery sector faced a decline, with stocks like Hekai Xinyuan and CATL experiencing significant drops [3] Policy and Regulatory Developments - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission emphasized expanding domestic demand as a top priority for next year, focusing on structural changes in consumption [3] - Ant Group's AI health application, Antifufu, saw a surge in downloads, ranking third on the Apple App Store [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology approved the first batch of L3 autonomous vehicles for mass production, with several automakers announcing they received L3 road licenses [3]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes "domestic demand as the main driver" for the upcoming year, focusing on building a strong domestic market [1] - There is a growing discussion about the "temperature difference" between macroeconomic performance and microeconomic sentiment, with macro indicators showing strength while micro experiences remain subdued [1][2] - The "involution" phenomenon in enterprises is linked to this temperature difference, where companies prioritize cash flow stability, leading to increased production but declining profit margins [2] Group 2 - Suggestions for boosting consumption include increasing income, ensuring leisure time, improving consumption scenarios, and providing quality products [2] - The central economic work conference proposes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on demand-side policies and structural supply-side improvements [3] - Economic growth targets for 2026 are suggested to be set between 4.5% and 5.0%, slightly lower than the previous year's target, aligning with long-term GDP growth trends [4] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy direction is expected to lean towards easing, with one interest rate cut and one reserve requirement ratio reduction anticipated [5] - The average economic growth rate during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to be around 4.5%, with 2026 GDP growth expected at 4.8% [6] - A modern industrial system is highlighted as a key focus for cross-cyclical policies, emphasizing the transformation of traditional industries and the development of strategic emerging industries [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic fundamental situation has been weakening marginally since mid - year, especially the accelerated decline in the investment sector, which still drags down credit expansion. The Politburo meeting in December set the tone of "continuing a moderately loose monetary policy", so the risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market in the bond market is limited. However, the policy - makers mentioned cross - cycle regulation again, indicating that loose policies may not be implemented in the short term. The new regulations for public funds have led to concentrated institutional selling, increasing short - term market volatility [11]. - From a valuation perspective, as the bond market has adjusted continuously, interest rates are returning to reasonable pricing. The deviation from the policy rate is narrowing, and the basis has rebounded above the historical center, suggesting that the market is not pricing in a rate cut next year, and futures are slightly over - adjusted compared to spot bonds. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a catch - up increase [12]. - In the short term, the demand side remains weak, and the fundamentals still support the bond market. The Fed's faster - than - expected restart of balance - sheet expansion is expected to maintain a loose overseas liquidity environment. But the expectation of domestic easing has not yet heated up, and the strength of allocation funds is still cautious. The crowded trading in Treasury bond futures may be the main cause of the sharp fluctuations. The continuation of the bond market's strength depends on the persistence of easing sentiment [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market conditions**: Rumors of loose policies boosted the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, ignoring the strong stock market [8]. - **Interest rate bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, mostly by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond 250016 was reported at 1.835%, down 1.75bp [9]. - **Funding market**: Tax payment periods had little impact, and the inter - bank funding market was stable and loose. The central bank had 1898 billion yuan in open - market maturities and injected 468 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1430 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, and funding rates declined slightly. The overnight weighted inter - bank deposit rate fluctuated narrowly around 1.27%, and the 7 - day rate fell 0.65bp to 1.4423%. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuated between 1.64% and 1.66% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Looking back at 2025, "supportive" was the core tone of monetary policy implementation, and it is expected to continue in 2026. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly, and better use structural monetary policy tools to support key areas and weak links of the real economy. It will also explore and expand the central bank's macro - prudential and financial stability functions [13]. - After the Central Economic Work Conference put forward the general requirement of "maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure", the market is highly concerned about the setting of the fiscal deficit ratio for next year. Market institutions and industry insiders generally expect the deficit ratio in 2026 to be no lower than this year's level of 4%. China will continue to implement a more active fiscal policy [13]. - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move", pointed out that insufficient aggregate demand is the prominent contradiction in current economic operations. It is necessary to implement the strategic plan for expanding domestic demand, form a complete domestic demand system, and expand consumer, investment, and financial demands. The key to expanding consumption is to promote employment, improve social security, optimize income distribution, and expand the middle - income group [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury bond futures**: Data on the trading of Treasury bond futures on December 17, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Money market**: Information on the inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate, SHIBOR term structure and trend, etc., was presented, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [23][31]. - **Derivatives market**: The Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve were shown, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [36].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant rise in retail stocks, with companies like Central Plaza, Yimin Group, Shanghai Jiubai, Lihua Co., and Baida Group hitting the daily limit up [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for next year, addressing the recent slowdown in consumption and investment growth [1] - The government plans to focus on structural changes in consumption and will work on boosting both supply and demand to stimulate consumption [1] Group 2 - Central Plaza's stock increased by 10.12%, with a total market value of 5.281 billion [2] - Yimin Group's stock rose by 10.11%, with a market capitalization of 5.165 billion [2] - Dongbai Group's stock saw a rise of 6.70%, with a market value of 15.5 billion, marking a year-to-date increase of 158.30% [2]