每经编辑｜陈柯名 潘海福 当地时间1月11日获悉，据知情官员透露，美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已对美国联邦储备委员会主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，调查内容涉及美联储 对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目的范围向国会撒谎。 图片来源：视觉中国 该知情官员表示，这项调查包括对鲍威尔公开声明的分析以及对支出记录的审查，并于去年11月获得哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官珍妮娜·皮罗的批准。皮罗 是特朗普的长期盟友，去年被任命为该办公室负责人。 随后，美联储主席鲍威尔证实，美国司法部9日向美联储发出传票，威胁将就鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会作证一事提起刑事指控，该证词部分涉及一项历 时多年的历史性美联储办公楼翻新工程。 鲍威尔说，此次新威胁既非针对去年六月的证词，也非针对美联储大楼翻修工程，更与国会监督职能无关，这些不过是借口。刑事指控的威胁，实因美联 储依据对公共利益的最佳评估设定利率，而非追随总统的偏好。 鲍威尔表示，这关乎美联储能否继续依据证据和经济状况制定利率——抑或货币政策将受政治压力或胁迫左右。 鲍威尔表示，他在美联储任职期间历经四届政府更迭，共和党与民主党政府皆然。无论何时，都秉持无畏无私的立场履行职责， ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is facing potential criminal indictment related to cost overruns for the renovation of its headquarters building, as indicated by grand jury subpoenas served by the Justice Department [1] Group 1 - The Justice Department has issued grand jury subpoenas to the U.S. Federal Reserve [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the subpoenas on Sunday [1] - The situation poses a threat of an "unprecedented" criminal indictment against Powell [1]

US stocks slid on Monday, pulling back from records amid concerns over Federal Reserve independence after US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) sank 0.8%, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) also dropped around 0.2% on the heels of all-time closing highs for Wall Street stocks. Rattled markets are turning their backs on US assets after Powell said the Justice Department has subpoenaed the ...

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is intervening in the mortgage market to lower mortgage rates by directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS), countering the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1][2][5]. Group 1: Government Intervention - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, announced that the government has instructed the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to purchase $200 billion in MBS, marking a significant intervention in the housing affordability crisis [2]. - The initial phase of this plan involves a $30 billion purchase, which is seen as an aggressive move by the White House to address housing costs [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, MBS prices surged, leading to a potential decrease in mortgage rates by approximately 0.25 percentage points [3][5]. - The risk premium of MBS relative to U.S. Treasuries narrowed by about 0.18 percentage points, indicating a positive market response to the intervention [5]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Independence - The intervention has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as traditionally, interest rate adjustments are within the Fed's purview [6][7]. - Analysts warn that this action blurs the line between market-driven effects and political manipulation, potentially reintroducing political risks into the financial markets [6]. Group 4: Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - The policy complicates the future privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, as the government now views these entities as essential policy tools [8]. - There are conflicting expectations between the government's use of these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) as policy levers and the traditional expectations of private investors regarding their profitability [8].

Group 1 - The core message revolves around Trump's ambiguous statements regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair, which have significant implications for the financial market and political landscape [1][3][5] - Trump's comments indicate a preference for a candidate who aligns with his monetary policy goals, particularly regarding interest rate cuts, rather than traditional qualifications [5][7] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership is creating volatility in the markets, as investors grapple with the implications of potential changes in monetary policy [5][7] Group 2 - The situation highlights a shift in the governance of the U.S. economy, where interest rates are becoming intertwined with political agendas and electoral cycles [7] - Trump's strategy of maintaining suspense around the Fed Chair nomination serves as a pressure tactic, influencing the behavior of the Federal Reserve, markets, and Congress [7] - The ongoing speculation about the next Fed Chair reflects a broader challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, as political considerations increasingly shape its role [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with the upcoming non-farm payroll data expected to confirm this trend, impacting the dollar index and gold prices [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that lowering interest rates is crucial for economic growth, urging the Federal Reserve not to delay action [1][2]. - President Trump has indicated he has decided on a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, but has not disclosed the name, suggesting that the nominee must support rate cuts [2][3]. - The current Fed Chair Powell is under pressure from Trump, who has been vocal about his desire for significant rate reductions, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [2][3]. Group 2: Labor Market Data - The market is focused on the upcoming non-farm payroll data, with expectations of 60,000 new jobs added in December, down from a previous value of 64,000, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% [1][4]. - If the actual non-farm payroll data is in line with or weaker than expectations, it may further validate the trend of a slowing labor market [1]. Group 3: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices are currently in a high-level consolidation phase after a recent upward trend, with prices moving from $4,300 to $4,500 [4]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to influence gold prices, with a lower-than-expected result likely to strengthen rate cut expectations and support gold prices [4]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices face resistance around $4,500-$4,520 and support near $4,450-$4,430, with a potential for adjustments based on the non-farm data [4].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has decided on a nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair but has not disclosed the name, indicating a significant political influence on the Fed's operations [1][4]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Trump has stated he has a decision in mind but has not discussed it with anyone yet [2][5]. - His chief economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, is considered a potential candidate, although Trump refrained from confirming this [2][5]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Current Situation - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from Trump to significantly lower borrowing costs, with current Chair Powell being a frequent target of Trump's criticism [6]. - Trump has made it clear that the next Chair must support his views on lowering borrowing costs, suggesting that any dissenting opinions would disqualify candidates [6]. Group 3: Concerns Over Independence - There are concerns that the next Chair may struggle to maintain the Fed's long-standing independence due to Trump's expectations for more presidential influence in policy-making [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which makes interest rate decisions, consists of 12 members, indicating that the Chair's influence is part of a larger decision-making body [6]. Group 4: Potential Candidates - Besides Hassett, other candidates include former Fed Governor Kevin Walsh and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, both of whom received positive evaluations from Trump after interviews [7]. - The decision on the new Chair is expected to be made this month, potentially before or after the World Economic Forum in Davos, scheduled for January 19-23 [7]. Group 5: Future Challenges - The independence of the Fed will face another critical test in early 2026 due to a lawsuit involving Fed Governor Cook, which relates to Trump's previous attempts to exert control over independent institutions [7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed on January 8, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 270.03 points (0.55%) to 49,266.11, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 104.25 points (0.44%) to 23,480.02, and the S&P 500 increased by 0.53 points (0.01%) to 6,921.46 [1][4]. Technology Sector - Most large-cap tech stocks declined, with Intel dropping over 3%, Nvidia down more than 2%, and Microsoft falling over 1%. However, Google, Amazon, and Tesla saw gains of over 1% [2][5]. Military Sector - The defense sector experienced significant gains, with Northrop Grumman rising by 2.39%, Lockheed Martin increasing by 4.34%, and General Dynamics up by 1.68% [6][3]. Military Budget Proposal - President Trump proposed increasing the U.S. military budget for the fiscal year 2027 from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion, emphasizing the need for a stronger military during turbulent times [7][8]. Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. saw a slight increase, indicating continued weakness in labor demand, with market attention focused on the upcoming December non-farm payroll report [5]. Gold and Oil Prices - WTI crude oil futures rose by $2.41 to $58.40 per barrel, marking a 4.30% increase. Gold prices also saw a rise, with spot gold surpassing $4,470 per ounce, reflecting its status as a preferred safe-haven asset amid geopolitical tensions [10].

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Divergence and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divergence, with a notable split in opinions regarding interest rate adjustments, as evidenced by the December meeting where 9 voted for a 25 basis point cut and 3 opposed, marking the highest dissent since 2019 [1] - The dot plot indicates a divided outlook, with 7 officials advocating for no changes until 2026, while 8 support at least two rate cuts [1] - Some officials predict inflation will peak in Q1 2025 due to tariffs, while others express concerns about persistent high inflation [1] Group 2: Employment Market Trends - The U.S. job market is cooling, with job vacancies dropping to 7.15 million in November 2025, a decrease of 885,000 from the previous year, exceeding market expectations [2] - The ADP reported a modest increase of 41,000 in private sector non-farm employment in December 2025, falling short of the consensus estimate of 48,000 [2] Group 3: Labor Market Characteristics - The current labor market is characterized by "low hiring, low layoffs," reflecting cautious decision-making by companies amid economic uncertainty [3] - Tight immigration policies are contributing to a reduced labor supply, further entrenching this cautious hiring environment [3] - While AI can enhance productivity, it may not independently support stable economic growth without broad employment increases [3] Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The economic landscape for 2026 is expected to remain complex, with the Federal Reserve facing challenges in balancing employment and inflation risks [4] - The market anticipates a potential shift towards a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, but achieving a balance between employment and inflation will be difficult [4] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under unprecedented scrutiny, particularly with political pressures from figures like President Trump [6] - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, including the potential appointment of a more dovish chair, could influence monetary policy direction [7] Group 6: Leadership Transition - Jerome Powell's term as chair will end in May 2026, raising questions about his future role within the Federal Reserve [9] - There is speculation about whether Powell will remain on the board after his chairmanship, which could impact the Fed's independence and policy direction [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Forex strategists maintain a bearish outlook on the US dollar heading into 2026, driven by concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and expectations of interest rate cuts, predicting a slight depreciation of the dollar by year-end [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance and Predictions - The dollar fell nearly 10% against a basket of major currencies last year, marking its weakest performance since 2017 [1] - A Reuters survey indicates that the mainstream view among forex forecasters remains unchanged, with expectations for the euro to rise approximately 1% each quarter, reaching 1.19 against the dollar by mid-year and 1.20 by year-end [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns about the labor market's weakness have led the Federal Reserve to cut the federal funds rate three times since September, currently targeting a range of 3.50%-3.75%, with one more rate cut anticipated this year [5] - The Fed has signaled a pause in rate cuts to assess subsequent data, highlighting divisions among officials regarding inflation and employment concerns [5] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Nearly 90% of currency traders surveyed expect to maintain or increase their net short positions on the dollar by the end of January [6] - The interest rate futures market reflects expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Fed this year, with potential for further easing if political influences affect policy decisions [7]