美国著名对冲基金经理、城堡投资创始人兼首席执行官肯.格里芬表示，他预计美联储在2025年还会再 次下调基准利率，因为该央行正将注意力转向劳动力市场。格里芬周四在接受采访时表示："我认为他 们今年还会再降息一次，甚至两次。美联储对劳动力市场感到紧张，因为我们确实看到了新增就业岗位 数量下降。" 格里芬表示："在当今这个时代，按季度进行报告是合理的。" 美国劳动力市场开始显现疲软迹象，8月份的失业率升至4.3%，为2021年以来的最高水平。美联储主席 杰罗姆.鲍威尔上周表示，就业市场降温的迹象愈发明显，当时美联储将基准利率下调了25个基点。 格里芬表示："在劳动力市场方面，我们很难确切地知道当前的状况究竟如何。但我们可以确定的是， 如果没有移民涌入，美国的人口增长将会大幅放缓，这将导致我们创造新工作岗位的能力下降。" 格里芬一直主张美联储应保持独立性。本月早些时候，格里芬在一篇评论文章中指出，维护美联储的独 立结构符合美国总统唐纳德.特朗普的最佳利益。 格里芬表示："他希望降低利率，而我要告诉你的是，如果我是总统，我会让美联储履行职责。我会让 美联储尽可能拥有感知上的和实际的独立性，因为美联储往往需要做出一些相当 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周四，美联储理事库克的律师团队向最高法院提交文件，强烈要求驳回总统特朗普 要求立即解雇她的申请。库克律师在文件中指出，特朗普的举动将"从根本上破坏美联储董事会的独立 性"，并警告这一先例将对美联储制度构成长期威胁。 特朗普随后向最高法院提出申请，请求解除下级法院阻止其解雇库克的裁定。 "与总统几乎无限制的权力主张不同，总统解雇美联储理事的行为必须有实质性约束，否则任何总统都 可以基于任意指控罢免任何理事，"文件指出，"这并非国会在设计美联储时所设想的制度。" 周四早些时候，美国过去35年来的主要经济政策制定者，包括所有在世的美联储前主席，敦促最高法院 允许美联储理事库克继续任职。该团体提交的文件警告称，在库克的法律挑战仍在进行的情况下允许她 被免职，将标志着国会90年前建立的保障行政部门独立性的保障措施受到破坏性侵蚀。 分析人士指出，此案不仅关系到库克个人命运，更是对美联储独立性的重大考验。特朗普近月来不断抱 怨美联储降息行动不够迅速，并公开施压要求更大幅度降息。就在上周，美联储刚刚宣布今年首次降息 25个基点，库克也参与了此次决策。 在该文件上签名的人士引用的研究表明，央行在设定利率时不 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices declined for the third consecutive trading day, with the Dow Jones down 173.96 points (0.38%) at 45947.32, the Nasdaq down 113.16 points (0.50%) at 22384.70, and the S&P 500 down 33.25 points (0.50%) at 6604.72, pressured by rising U.S. Treasury yields [1] - European indices also fell, with Germany's DAX30 down 136.90 points (0.58%) at 23544.80, the UK's FTSE 100 down 36.88 points (0.40%) at 9213.55, and France's CAC40 down 32.03 points (0.41%) at 7795.42 [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for November delivery fell by $0.01 to $64.98 per barrel, a decrease of 0.02%, while Brent crude oil futures for November delivery rose by $0.11 to $69.42 per barrel, an increase of 0.16% [2] - Bitcoin dropped over 3% to $109,421.30, and Ethereum fell over 6% to $3,903.01 [3] Precious Metals and Forex - Spot gold increased by over 0.3% to $3,749.04 [4] - The U.S. Dollar Index rose by 0.7% to 98.554, with the euro trading at $1.1653, the pound at $1.3335, and the yen at ¥149.89 [4] Economic Data - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.8% in Q2, revised up from 3.3%, indicating strong consumer and business spending resilience [5] - Economists expect the upcoming August personal consumption expenditure data to show nearly a 3% increase year-over-year [5] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan suggested the possibility of a rapid 50 basis point rate cut to mitigate economic risks, emphasizing the need for timely adjustments to monetary policy [6] - Dallas Fed President Logan proposed shifting from the federal funds rate to an overnight rate linked to U.S. Treasury collateral for more effective monetary policy execution [6] Mortgage Rates - U.S. mortgage rates rose to 6.3%, ending a streak of declines, which may impact affordability for potential buyers [8] - Economists believe that a drop below 6% could encourage more homeowners to sell, increasing the supply of second-hand homes [8] Regulatory Developments - Meta is facing potential EU charges for inadequate regulation of illegal content on its platforms, which could result in fines up to 6% of its global annual revenue [10] - Google may face a second significant fine from the EU related to competition law violations, following a previous fine of €2.95 billion for preferential treatment of its own advertising services [11]

Core Viewpoint - A coalition of former U.S. Federal Reserve chairs, Treasury Secretaries, and economists urges the Supreme Court not to allow President Trump to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook, warning that such an action could jeopardize the health of the U.S. economy and undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to increased inflation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Concerns Over Fed Independence - The coalition argues that allowing Trump to dismiss Cook during her legal challenge would weaken public trust in the Fed and disrupt its efforts to stabilize prices, increase employment, and regulate long-term interest rates [1][2]. - Economists have reached a consensus that greater independence for central banks correlates with lower and more stable inflation without increasing unemployment, thus supporting the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Warnings - The document references former Fed Chair Arthur Burns, who faced political pressure from President Nixon in the 1970s, leading to a period of high inflation and economic instability due to a lack of independence [2][3]. - The former officials emphasize that a non-independent central bank tends to pursue short-term gains, which can result in long-term economic damage [3]. Group 3: Legal Proceedings and Implications - Cook's legal team argues that Trump's request to dismiss her before the conclusion of the lawsuit would severely undermine the Fed's independence and could create chaos in financial markets [8][10]. - The Supreme Court's decision will hinge on whether Trump has "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act to dismiss Cook, with her lawyers asserting that the allegations against her are unsubstantiated and politically motivated [9][11]. Group 4: Support from High-Profile Officials - The coalition includes prominent figures from both political parties, such as former Fed Chairs Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen, as well as former Treasury Secretaries like Robert Rubin and Larry Summers [4][6]. - Alan Blinder, a former Fed Vice Chair, noted that there is a strong bipartisan consensus against undermining the Fed's independence, warning that if Trump can dismiss Cook, he could do so to any Fed official, eroding the institution's credibility [6].

来源：滚动播报 城堡投资创始人Ken Griffin：总统应该让美联储来做他们的工作。 ...

美国过去35年来的主要经济政策制定者，包括所有在世的美联储前主席，敦促最高法院允许美联储理事 库克继续任职。法庭之友意见书警告称，在库克的法律挑战仍在进行的情况下允许她被免职，将标志着 国会90年前建立的保障行政部门独立性的保障措施受到破坏性侵蚀。在该意见书上签名的人士引用的研 究表明，央行在设定利率时不考虑短期政治因素，可以降低通胀，降低长期利率。这份简报由美联储前 主席格林斯潘、伯南克和耶伦签署。18位签名者还包括以下共和党和民主党政府的总统顾问，以及来自 不同意识形态的主要经济学家：前财长罗伯特·鲁宾和劳伦斯·萨默斯、前经济顾问委员会主席格伦·哈伯 德和格雷格·曼昆等。（格隆汇） ...

钛媒体App 9月25日消息，美联储理事古尔斯比称，如果美联储失去独立性，通胀将会"卷土重来"。 （广角观察） ...

古尔斯比：美联储保持独立性至关重要。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1 - The core issue behind the political crisis surrounding the Federal Reserve is whether it can "manipulate" interest rates and the implications of a steepening U.S. Treasury yield curve [1][5] - The market is optimistic about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the short term, influenced by Trump's potential nominations for a "dovish" shadow chairman [2][20] - The Federal Reserve can "set" but not "manipulate" policy interest rates, as interest rates are endogenous and influenced by macroeconomic factors [3][45] Group 2 - The U.S. government's fiscal and debt situation is in a "quasi-war state," necessitating fiscal consolidation to manage rising deficits and leverage ratios [7] - Sustainable fiscal consolidation can be achieved through economic growth or budget cuts, each with different political costs [7] - A decrease in the basic fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point could lead to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield by 12-35 basis points [5][7] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's long-term ability to manipulate the yield curve is limited, and the trend of rising yield premiums on U.S. Treasuries is likely to continue [4] - The market tends to price in overly "dovish" expectations during rate hike cycles and overly "hawkish" expectations during rate cut cycles [4] - The transition from "loose fiscal + loose monetary" to "tight fiscal + loose monetary" policies is crucial for the Federal Reserve's future rate cut space [5][20]

100到150个基点是什么概念？相当于半年内连降四五次，这幅度搁往年得是经济崩了才会用的猛药。可现在美国核心通胀还挂 在2.9%，离美联储2%的目标还差一截，鲍威尔上周刚说"要平衡通胀和就业风险"，转头就被贝森特架在了火上。 贝森特急的不是经济，是特朗普那"3-3-3"经济目标，要到2028年搞3%GDP增长，光靠放松管制不够，得靠降息放水才容易出 效果。 9月24日，美国财长贝森特突然放话，直指美联储主席鲍威尔本该释放降息100到150个基点的信号！这消息一出市场就像被投 了颗炸弹，水花四溅。 这事儿最反常的地方在于，美国财长和美联储主席历来都是"面和心不和"也得装客气，哪有这么明着指着鼻子催降息的？ 要知道贝森特可不是普通政客，这位前索罗斯基金首席投资官，是特朗普一手提拔的"自己人"，他这话里藏的可不只是经济主 张。 更要命的是美联储的独立性。贝森特前几天还写文章呼吁"全面审查美联储"，说人家政策失误多，现在又公开逼宫降息，明眼 人都看得出是想把央行绑上政治战车。 鲍威尔之前嘴硬说"坚定保独立"，可面对财长这波攻势，下次议息会怕是很难硬气起来。 这哪是催降息，分明是政治之手伸进了货币政策的盘子。短期市场或 ...