Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following President Trump's decision to remove Lisa Cook from the Board of Governors, which has led to a sell-off of the US dollar and a strengthening of safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [1] - Following Trump's action, the dollar has depreciated, with the dollar to Swiss franc exchange rate falling by 0.4% to 0.8030 and the dollar to Japanese yen rate declining by 0.5% to 147.07 [1] - Gold prices have increased by 0.4%, reaching $3,379.38 per ounce, indicating a shift towards safe-haven investments amid the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's independence [1]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美联储已经开始褪去独立性的标签，这将大大损害美元的信用，对美元和美联储的伤害是长期性的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阳线，上升动能有走弱迹象。1小时周期形成双顶下破，短线若不能收复3361美元一线，则短期上涨结构可能被破坏，会下滑至3335 美元一线。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 隔夜油价出现小幅反弹，但力度和持续性一般，只能视为反弹，并未改变下行走势。短期内投资者可关注欧洲与伊朗的谈判，若谈判顺利，油价可能雪上加 霜。 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和 欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈讨论解除制裁和核问题、联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。 前期美国对俄罗斯原油第三方买家提出制裁，可能威胁到了欧洲的原油进口安全，欧洲此举可能是为拓展原油进口渠道。若谈判顺利，短期内伊朗有提高产 能和出口量的潜能，伊朗剩余产能至少有40万桶/日。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金以横盘调整为主，自鲍威尔全面转向鸽派后，黄金短期上涨动能走强，但也要谨防利多消息被消化耗尽的可能。 本次鲍 ...

作者：朱雪莹，华尔街见闻 刚刚特朗普做出重大举动！他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）职务"立即 生效"。 这一史无前例的举动震动金融市场，质疑声四起。美国股指期货应声下跌，纳斯达克100指数合约下跌 0.2%，避险情绪推动日元兑美元上涨，黄金收复稍早跌幅。 特朗普此举一旦获得成功，距离"掌控美联储"将更近一步。如果库克离职，将让特朗普有可能获得四个 席位，使其在七人理事会中占据多数。特朗普在第一任期内已任命了其中两位现任理事，并在不久前已 提名其经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）填补由拜登任命的阿德里亚娜·库格勒 （Adriana Kugler）近期提前腾出的第三个席位。 对此有"新美联储通讯社"之称的华尔街日报记者Nick Timiraos在最新文章中分析称，特朗普目前在美联 储七人理事会中已任命两名成员。如果再获得两个提名席位，他将获得多数席位，从而可能从根本上重 塑整个美联储体系。 虽然此前联邦住房金融局（FHFA）局长比尔·普尔特（Bill Pulte）指控库克在贷款申请中撒谎以获取更 优惠条款，涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈。但目前针对库克的指控尚未经法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises significant concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a reshaping of its board with Trump loyalists [1][2][3] Group 1: Dismissal of Lisa Cook - President Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, claiming constitutional authority to do so, which has sparked debates about the Fed's independence [1] - Cook was accused of mortgage fraud related to her property declarations, which Trump cited as the reason for her dismissal [1] - The U.S. Department of Justice is set to investigate Cook for the alleged mortgage fraud, while she has refused to resign under pressure [1] Group 2: Implications for Federal Reserve - Trump's actions may lead to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making body, allowing him to appoint officials who align with his views on interest rates [2] - The Federal Reserve Board consists of seven members, with Trump having appointed several during his first term, potentially influencing the board's stance on monetary policy [2] - The potential for a legal battle over Cook's dismissal could further complicate the situation, as she may remain in her position during the proceedings [1][3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of Cook's dismissal, the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.2%, while gold prices increased by 0.4%, indicating market sensitivity to changes in Federal Reserve governance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented removal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook by President Trump signifies a significant escalation in his attack on the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a legal confrontation that could reach the Supreme Court [2][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified following Trump's actions, with the dollar index dropping nearly 30 points to 98.19 and spot gold rising over $20 to $3378.85 per ounce [2]. - Trump's administration claims that Cook is involved in mortgage fraud, which they argue undermines her integrity and ability to serve [4][10]. Group 2: Legal and Political Implications - The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 restricts the President's power to unilaterally dismiss a Federal Reserve Governor, requiring sufficient cause for such actions [4]. - Trump's decision to remove Cook could lead to a legal battle, with the possibility of the Supreme Court intervening if a judge allows Cook to continue serving during legal proceedings [5][6]. Group 3: Future of Federal Reserve Board - If Trump successfully removes Cook, he will have the opportunity to nominate a replacement, potentially reshaping the composition of the Federal Reserve Board in the coming years [5][6]. - Currently, two of the seven Federal Reserve Governors were appointed by Trump, indicating a growing influence over the board [6].

美国总统特朗普签署行政令罢免美联储理事库克，美元因对美联储独立性的进一步持续冲击而下跌。在 外汇市场上，非美货币对美元汇率大幅上涨，与此同时， 黄金价格也在飙升。特朗普正竭尽全力促使 美联储降息。如果成功解雇库克，他会试图用一个"应声虫"取代库克，此人会对特朗普言听计从。而特 朗普此举如果真的成功，也将使得特朗普提名的理事在美联储理事会占据多数席位。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent $1.39 trillion trade agreement between the U.S. and the EU, while appearing to be a significant victory for the U.S., reveals underlying challenges and potential weaknesses in the U.S. dollar's dominance in global markets [1][3]. Trade Agreement Details - The agreement includes commitments from the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products and $400 billion in AI chips by 2028, along with an additional $600 billion in investments from European companies into U.S. strategic sectors [1]. - However, the actual projected energy imports from the EU to the U.S. for 2024 are only $64.55 billion, falling significantly short of the annual target of $250 billion [1]. Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. will reduce tariffs on EU automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, while the EU will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. industrial goods, with a 15% cap on tariffs for key products like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals [3]. - Economists criticize this as a superficial exchange, suggesting that the EU is making significant concessions without receiving equivalent benefits [3]. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Following the trade agreement, President Trump nominated Stephen Milan, a proponent of weakening the dollar, to the Federal Reserve, which could lead to a significant shift in U.S. monetary policy [3][4]. - The market reacted strongly, with a 91.1% probability of a rate cut by September indicated in federal funds futures, leading to a decline in the dollar index [3]. Political Influence on the Federal Reserve - Tensions within the Federal Reserve are escalating, with Trump pressuring for the removal of Biden-appointed board members, which could result in a majority of Trump-aligned members on the board [4]. - Milan's proposals for reforming the Federal Reserve could undermine its independence, potentially leading to a repeat of past economic crises [5]. Global Market Reactions - The potential loss of independence for the Federal Reserve has raised alarms in global markets, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the IMF about the risks of politicizing central banks [5]. - A decline in the dollar's credibility could lead to a sell-off, increasing the attractiveness of gold and other currencies, while also distorting trade flows due to high tariffs [5]. Economic Philosophies Clash - The trade agreement reflects a clash between the U.S.'s unilateral approach under Trump and China's multilateral "Belt and Road" initiative, with implications for global supply chains [7]. - Short-term benefits may arise for risk assets, but long-term consequences could include rising inflation and economic friction with the EU and Switzerland over the U.S.'s weak dollar strategy [7].

作为美国货币政策制定当局，美联储的"独立性"一直是重要的制度保障。美联储的决策不仅对美国经济产生重大影响，而且对全球经济和金融市 场产生冲击。 今年以来，特朗普多次要求美联储配合自己，采取降息动作刺激美国经济。为此，特朗普对美联储关键人物不断施压，相继威胁要解雇美联储主席鲍威尔和 理事会委员丽萨·库克。据报道，在上周举行的杰克逊霍尔会议上，大量荷枪实弹的军人和警察出现在现场，完全打破了会议以往的平静氛围。 华尔街资深记者尼克·提米劳斯24日分析认为，特朗普接下来"只差两步"就能完全掌控美联储，该机构自1913年成立以来，作为"制度防火墙"的独立性原则 从来没有如此脆弱，受到如此严峻的挑战。 荷枪实弹的军警出现 杰克逊霍尔年度会议气氛紧张 美联储在上周举行了一年一度的杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会，地点在怀俄明州提顿县的杰克逊。8月22日，鲍威尔在该会议上发表讲话，备受市场关注。 这一传统从1978年就已经开始，美联储在每年8月下旬都会在杰克逊开会，邀请全球货币学者、政策制定者一起交流探讨央行治理话题。作为度假胜地，杰 克逊风景壮观，美联储高官和远道而来拜访的客人可以在大提顿国家公园内漫步聊天，氛围平静放松。由于很多 ...

特朗普再次将目标瞄准了美联储。 作为总统，他关注经济增长，也希望美联储的货币政策，能够迎合他的目标。 美联储理事会的席位，成为特朗普施压的重要阵地。 他的目标是什么？他能否成功地让美联储做出他想要的改变？ 特朗普与美联储的关系，一直以来就不太友好。 自2016年竞选总统以来，特朗普便公开批评美联储的货币政策。 他认为，美联储过于保守，经济复苏的步伐太慢，尤其是在他提出的一系列税务改革和贸易政策的背景下，希望美联储能够采取更为宽松的货币政策。 2018年，特朗普更是公开指责美联储加息太快，影响了股市表现，并且对美国经济的长远发展造成负面影响。 他的言辞直白、批评猛烈，直言美联储没有看到经济增长的潜力，也没有认识到低利率对促进就业的重要性。 这些话语映射出特朗普对于美联储决策的深刻不满，尤其是他不喜欢美联储主席鲍威尔的政策。 随着2020年的选举临近，特朗普在经济政策方面变得愈加激进。 他的目标依然是推动美联储放松货币政策，继续采取降息的手段刺激美国经济，尤其是在面对新冠疫情带来的经济衰退时，特朗普坚持认为降低利率能够快 速恢复经济活力。 面对鲍威尔的坚持不降息，特朗普的施压手段显得更加明显。 特朗普要求美联储理 ...

8月25日，据媒体报道，在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的美联储年度研讨会期间，来自世界各国的央行官 员担心，如果全球最具影响力的央行屈服于政治压力，将为其他国家的政治干预开创危险先例。 特朗普公开施压美联储主席鲍威尔辞职，并试图驱逐理事库克（Lisa Cook），这种做法已经引起国际 央行界的高度关注。欧洲央行决策者Olli Rehn表示： "对美联储出于政治动机的攻击会在精神上波及世界其他地区，包括欧洲"。 报道指出，特朗普对美联储的施压并非孤例，日本、拉脱维亚等多国央行都面临类似政治压力。 分析人士指出，如果美联储的独立性受到损害，可能引发金融市场重大动荡，投资者将要求持有美债获 得更高风险溢价，并重新评估美债作为全球金融体系命脉的地位。各国央行已开始为这种冲击做准备， 提醒银行关注美元敞口。 全球央行官员力挺鲍威尔 报道称，在杰克逊霍尔会议期间，国际央行界展现出对美联储独立性的坚定支持。当鲍威尔登台演讲 时，与会者起立鼓掌表达支持。 据接受媒体采访的十几位各国央行官员透露，美联储因失去独立性而削弱抗通胀能力的情形，被视为对 全球央行地位和经济稳定的直接威胁。德国央行行长、欧洲央行管委会成员Joachim Na ...