Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and plans to implement a rural and urban resident income increase plan as a priority for 2026 economic tasks [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Policy Focus - The 2026 economic strategy will focus on increasing urban and rural residents' income through multiple channels to enhance consumption capacity and stimulate effective demand [2]. - The policy aims to combine "investment in goods" and "investment in people" to create an endogenous growth model driven by domestic demand and consumption [3]. Group 2: Consumption Trends - Recent data shows significant growth in retail sales of household appliances and communication devices, with year-on-year increases of 14.8%, 18.2%, and 20.9% respectively for the first 11 months of the year [2]. - The shift in consumption patterns indicates a move towards equal emphasis on goods and service consumption, with service consumption expected to be a key focus in 2026 [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Investment - To unlock consumer potential, there is a need to enhance investment in consumer infrastructure such as parking lots, charging stations, and healthcare services, which will support consumption structure upgrades [3]. - The policy will also focus on increasing the proportion of investment in livelihood-related sectors to support consumption growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference prioritizes "expanding domestic demand and building a strong domestic market" for the upcoming year, emphasizing the continuity and stability of consumption expansion policies in the context of a complex global economic environment and the gap in consumer rates between China and developed countries [1] Group 1: Consumption Expansion Policies - The expansion of domestic demand is a long-term strategic move, with consumption being the core pillar of domestic demand [1] - China's total consumption scale has steadily increased, with new consumption hotspots and trends emerging, but there are still challenges in internal driving forces [1] - In 2024, China's consumer rate is projected to be 39.9%, which is still 10 to 30 percentage points lower than that of developed countries, particularly in terms of service consumption [1] Group 2: Supply-Demand Matching - High-quality supply must be aligned with consumption upgrades to eliminate supply-demand mismatches, enhancing supply-demand adaptability [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued a plan focusing on "leading industrial upgrades through consumption upgrades," emphasizing structural optimization alongside incremental growth [2] - This policy direction aligns with trends towards low-carbon and digital development, addressing supply shortfalls in areas like home services and health tourism [2] Group 3: Strengthening Consumer Capacity - Consumer capacity and willingness are foundational for expanding consumption, supported by stable income expectations and a robust social security system [3] - Policies should focus on increasing residents' income share in national income distribution and enhancing social security measures to alleviate financial pressures on education, healthcare, and pensions [3] - Only with income support and reduced living concerns can consumer willingness translate into actual purchasing power [3] Group 4: Reform and Market Activation - Comprehensive reforms are necessary to eliminate barriers to consumption and release market growth potential [4] - In major consumption areas, unreasonable restrictions should be gradually removed, while service consumption should focus on easing market access and integrating business models [4] - Strengthening the management of new consumption formats and enhancing consumer rights protection will encourage residents to consume confidently [4] Group 5: Policy Tools and Economic Growth - There are ample policy tools available to boost consumption, with supply optimization addressing "availability" issues, welfare policies alleviating "willingness" concerns, and reforms removing "accessibility" barriers [4] - The coordinated and precise implementation of these policies is expected to unleash consumer potential and promote an economic development model driven by domestic demand and consumption [4]

固收：地方政府"加杠杆"最新动向及边际变化 20251217 摘要 2026 年中国将继续实施积极的财政政策，预计狭义财政赤字率维持在 4%，重点保障工资、运转及民生支出，通过"增收节支"和上级政府的 专项债券及转移支付缓解地方财政压力。 扩大内需是 2026 年的核心主导思想，政府将通过居民增收计划和消费 提振行动来落实，各地政府需确保相关措施在一季度落地实施。 2026 年中央预算内资金规模预计将超过 7,350 亿元，增加重大安全工 程及其他重点项目投入，优化政府专项债用途管理，并推出新型政策性 金融工具，撬动大量投资。 中央预算内投资基金、专项债和政策性金融工具将继续发挥重要作用， 作为地方政府项目资本金，撬动银行或政策性银行支持，带动固定资产 投资止跌回稳，涵盖房地产、制造业和新基建领域。 各省将进一步发展重点产业链，聚焦特定领域以促进区域经济发展，同 时需主动控制新增隐性债务，规范融资平台经营债务，以防范财政风险。 明年经济工作重点包括扩大内需、推动新的生产力、整治内源竞争，并 制定全国统一大市场条例，破除地方保护主义，实现公平竞争。 面对投资与消费增速放缓，将加大对内需的控制力度，并通过科技创新 ...

Core Insights - Dongguan's foreign trade import and export value reached 1.44 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, marking a historical high for the same period and ranking fifth nationally, with a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [1] - The city's export value was 878.95 billion yuan, growing by 8.7%, while import value was 557.24 billion yuan, increasing by 24.3% [1] - The number of foreign trade enterprises in Dongguan reached 27,000, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Private enterprises contributed 900 billion yuan to the import and export value, a growth of 20.9% [1] Trade Dynamics - Dongguan's foreign trade growth is significantly driven by emerging markets, with trade with 54 countries and regions increasing by over 50% year-on-year [1] - Trade with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative grew by 24.3%, accounting for 30% of total trade [1] - Trade with ASEAN countries saw a remarkable increase of 36.8% [1] Industry Competitiveness - Dongguan is enhancing its industrial competitiveness by upgrading towards high-tech and high-value-added sectors, with electromechanical products exports reaching 617.42 billion yuan, a growth of 12.3% [2] - Electromechanical products accounted for 70.2% of Dongguan's total export value, with significant growth in integrated circuits (20.1%), electrical equipment (20.6%), computers and components (18.4%), and mobile phones (6.9%) [2] Economic Goals - Dongguan aims to maintain an average annual economic growth rate of around 5% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, targeting a GDP exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan by 2030 [6] - The city plans to enhance foreign trade quality and efficiency by expanding overseas warehouse layouts and establishing more overseas exhibition centers [6] - Dongguan is also focusing on tapping into domestic market potential and increasing effective investment to stimulate consumption [6]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the implementation of a rural and urban resident income increase plan as a strategic move to enhance domestic demand and address the current imbalance of strong supply and weak demand in the economy [2][3][4] - The plan aims to improve the income distribution structure, focusing on increasing labor remuneration and enhancing social security mechanisms, thereby promoting a stable growth in residents' income [2][3] Summary by Sections Economic Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference has identified the rural and urban resident income increase plan as a key task for 2026, aimed at necessary adjustments and reforms in income structure to strengthen domestic demand [3] - The shift from a focus on middle and low-income groups to a comprehensive income increase plan for all residents signifies an expansion in the scope of benefits [2][3] Income and Consumption - The increase in residents' income is expected to enhance consumption capacity and willingness, creating a virtuous cycle of consumption-driven economic growth [3] - The plan is designed to gradually expand the middle-income group and optimize the income distribution system, ensuring that more citizens benefit from economic development [3] Social Impact - The income increase plan is not only a tool for stimulating consumption but also reflects a commitment to development that prioritizes the well-being of the people [4] - Enhancing the sense of gain, happiness, and security among urban and rural residents is crucial for establishing a solid foundation for building a modern socialist country [4]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference indicates that 2025 will be a significant year for China's economy, which is expected to grow by around 5%, maintaining its position among the world's major economies, with a total economic output projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [4][5] - Active flows of factors and innovation are expected to inject new momentum into development, with a rapid growth trend in the movement of people, goods, information, and capital, leading to a recovery in investment and consumption growth next year [7] - The conference emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy next year, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels while ensuring fiscal sustainability [9] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized as a key task for next year, focusing on structural changes in consumption and boosting investment to stabilize growth [12][13] - The expansion of international science and technology innovation centers is a major deployment aimed at enhancing global competitiveness and influence, with significant achievements in regions like Beijing and Shanghai [16][17] - The government will take targeted measures to enhance the effectiveness of the unified national market, including improving market operation rules and establishing a foundational institutional framework [20][22] Group 3 - The strategy for regional coordinated development will be implemented, promoting urban-rural integration and regional linkage while avoiding "policy lowlands" [28] - The focus will be on promoting high-quality employment, with policies aimed at stabilizing jobs and supporting key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [35] - The real estate sector is expected to see significant development potential, with a shift towards a new model that emphasizes high-quality development and the transformation of real estate companies [39][41]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the recent 2025 Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of self-reliance and internal development to navigate external uncertainties and challenges in the global landscape [5][7]. Group 1: Strategic Focus - The conference highlighted the need to maintain strategic determination and focus on internal affairs despite external pressures, advocating for a self-reliant approach to development [5][6]. - Xi Jinping's remarks during the conference reiterated the significance of building a strong domestic market and enhancing internal circulation to counteract international uncertainties [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Development - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand is positioned as a strategic move rather than a temporary measure, with the goal of stabilizing the economy and ensuring economic security [7]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to implement actions to boost consumption and relax restrictions on service consumption, while the Ministry of Commerce aims to enhance the supply of quality goods and services [7]. Group 3: Innovation and Technology - Innovation is identified as a key factor in overcoming challenges, with a focus on original innovation and tackling core technological issues as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8]. - The conference proposed expanding international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area to foster a robust environment for technological advancement [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming year marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," making effective economic management crucial for achieving socialist modernization [9]. - The commitment to self-reliance and continuous improvement in capabilities is expected to align with favorable conditions for development, regardless of external challenges [9].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the economic data of November 2025 and provides asset allocation views, suggesting long - term attention to the improvement of domestic demand [1][4] Key Economic Data in November 2025 Production - The value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.8% in November 2025, with the previous value being 4.9%. High - tech manufacturing was the main driving force. The growth rate of export delivery value was - 0.1%, significantly improved from the previous value of - 2.1%. The national service production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, declining for 6 consecutive months, and optional consumption needed policy stimulus [1] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year in November, dropping for the 6th consecutive month and down 1.6 percentage points from the previous value. Rural areas were significantly better than urban areas. Catering revenue increased by 3.2%, maintaining a relatively high level since the second half of last year. The retail sales growth rates of communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, and grain and oil foods were above 6%. However, the sales of home appliances and building materials in the real - estate post - cycle declined sharply, and the decline of automobiles and petroleum products widened [2] Fixed - Asset Investment - The growth rate of national fixed - asset investment declined further in November, with a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% (previous value: - 1.7%). The growth rate of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, down 0.8 pct from the previous value. The transportation equipment such as railway, ship, and aerospace, automobile manufacturing, and agricultural and sideline food processing had relatively high growth rates. The growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure investment was - 1.1% (previous value: - 0.1%), and the real - estate fixed - asset investment growth rate continued to decline to - 15.9% (previous value: - 14.7%). The year - on - year growth rate of private investment was - 5.3% (previous value: - 4.5%) [3] Asset Allocation Views - In November, production was stable, optional consumption and investment were under pressure, external demand improved, and high - tech industries were local highlights. The Central Economic Work Conference made "expanding domestic demand" the top priority for economic work in 2026. In the stage of development transformation, long - term attention should be paid to the endogenous repair of domestic demand areas such as consumption and investment, as well as price data [4]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes a positive outlook for China's economy, projecting a growth rate of around 5% for 2025, with the total economic output expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2] - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate expected to rise to around 4% [2][3] - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments being utilized flexibly [3][4] Group 2: Income and Employment - A series of measures to promote income growth and stabilize employment are expected in 2026, including the implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [5][6] - The government aims to enhance the basic pension for residents and improve consumption capacity, with a focus on ensuring that income growth aligns with economic growth [6][8] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a shift from goods consumption to a balanced focus on both goods and service consumption [9] - Investment is expected to stabilize, with a focus on infrastructure and social welfare projects, while also encouraging private investment in high-tech and service sectors [10][11][12] - The government plans to enhance investment in areas such as urban renewal, healthcare, and childcare, while also leveraging government funds to stimulate private sector investment [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support. The stabilization of furnace materials boosts cost support. The market has digested the off - season demand and the news of export license management through previous price drops, and the macro - economic outlook is positive. Pay attention to the start of winter stockpiling from late December to January before the Spring Festival. The price of hot - rolled coils is expected to continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 (Market Review) - **Futures Price**: The trading volume of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract has shrunk for three consecutive days, with narrow intraday fluctuations. It closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase, showing a stable and rising trend in the past three trading days [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, is reported at 3,270 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot is 25 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 56,000 tons to 3.0871 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 114,100 tons year - on - year. It is at a near 4 - month low, and the output has been continuously declining recently. Steel mills may have the intention to switch production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 28,900 tons to 3.1197 million tons week - on - week, and decreased by 50,200 tons year - on - year. The domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness for active stockpiling. The export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 32,600 tons to 3.9709 million tons week - on - week (social inventory decreased by 73,700 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 41,100 tons). The total inventory is at a near 4 - year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate, suppressing prices. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on steel export license management have been introduced. In the short term, it may trigger a rush to export, but the long - term expectation of export restrictions is rising, which may lead some export resources to be sold domestically, intensifying the domestic supply pressure. In addition, the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Office emphasized that expanding domestic demand is a key task for next year, but it will take time for the policy to be transmitted to terminal demand, and it is difficult to provide substantial support in the short term [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The expectation of supply reduction is increasing, winter stockpiling demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal enhance cost support [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]