Market Overview - On October 6, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.7% to close at 26,957 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.1% to 6,550 points. The total market turnover was HKD 121.26 billion. Despite the downturn, the market remained above the 10-day moving average, indicating stability [1] - The market showed a strong performance in chip stocks and precious metals, with Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) rising by 4.6% and Zijin Mining (2259 HK) increasing by 3.8% to 8.2% [1] Macro Dynamics - New home sales in 30 major cities showed mixed results, with a total transaction volume of 1.14 million square meters for the week ending October 5, representing a year-on-year increase of 25.1%. However, this was a 45.6% decrease compared to the previous week [3] - The election of Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan is anticipated to lead to proactive fiscal policies, contributing to a rise in the Nikkei Index, which reached new closing highs for three consecutive trading days [3] Industry Dynamics Consumer Sector - The Macao Statistics and Census Service reported that during the first four days of the 8-day holiday period in 2025, there were 677,000 visitors, averaging 169,000 daily, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. However, the number of mainland visitors showed limited growth, leading to a decline in casino stocks listed in the U.S. [4] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw stable performance among major companies. Xuan Zhu Bio (2575 HK) is currently in the IPO process from October 6 to 10, attracting attention due to its notable parent company and promising product pipeline, including drugs for common diseases and cancers [5] New Energy and Utilities - The new energy and utilities sector experienced a slight pullback, with major players like Harbin Electric (1133 HK) and Shanghai Electric (2727 HK) declining by 2.7% and 4.1%, respectively. Despite this, some environmental and gas stocks showed mild technical rebounds [5]

Core Insights - The rising gold prices have attracted significant attention from investors, especially during periods of economic volatility, prompting a shift from riskier assets like stocks to gold as a perceived safe haven [1][3][20] Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On September 11, 2024, gold prices surged to 745 yuan per gram, marking a 9.08% increase, which led to a significant rise in gold bar prices from jewelry brands [3][4] - The increase in gold prices reflects the complexities of the global economic situation, including the depreciation of the US dollar and rising oil prices, contributing to market uncertainty [7][8] Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are increasingly considering gold as a stable investment option, but the differences between gold bars and gold jewelry must be understood; gold bars are more suitable for those seeking pure financial returns, while jewelry combines aesthetic value with investment [11][13] - It is crucial for investors to purchase gold bars through reputable channels to ensure price transparency and transaction security, while also being aware of gold purity and other factors affecting investment value [13][14] Group 3: Risks and Rational Investment - Despite being viewed as a safe asset, gold investment carries risks, including price volatility and challenges in liquidity when needing to sell quickly [14][15] - Rational investors should avoid overcommitting to gold and instead consider it as part of a diversified investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of financial literacy and awareness of macroeconomic factors [17][18][20]

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1013.15 tons of gold as of October 7, 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.02 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold reached a record high of $3990.90 per ounce, driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing U.S. government shutdown and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][7]. Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - As of October 7, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust holds 1013.15 tons of gold, down by 0.02 tons from the previous day [7]. - The current gold ETF holdings indicate a strong interest in gold as a safe-haven asset during periods of economic uncertainty [7]. Group 2: Gold Price Movement - On October 7, spot gold prices peaked at $3990.90 per ounce, marking a significant increase of $23.49 or 0.59% [7]. - The price of gold is supported by expectations of a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of rate cuts in October and December [7][8]. Group 3: Market Influences - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its seventh day, has heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [7]. - Geopolitical tensions in France and Japan have also contributed to increased global demand for gold [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has raised its long-term gold price forecast for 2026 from $4300 to $4900, citing strong inflows into gold ETFs and continued central bank purchases [8]. - Technical indicators suggest that while gold is in an upward trend, caution may be warranted as it approaches the psychological barrier of $4000 per ounce [8][9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, with spot gold reaching $4000.49 per ounce and a year-to-date increase of over 50% [2][6] - On October 8, domestic gold jewelry prices in China surpassed 1160 yuan per gram, with notable brands like Lao Miao and Chow Sang Sang reaching 1176 yuan and 1165 yuan per gram respectively [3] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, aggressive U.S. trade policies, and central banks' increased gold purchases, which have collectively driven gold's price up significantly [6][7] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 7406 million ounces by the end of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of accumulation [7] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target for the end of 2026 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong demand from Western ETFs, central banks, and speculative positions [8][9] - UBS forecasts that gold prices will reach $4200 per ounce by the end of this year, driven by fundamental and momentum support, with key variables including the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and geopolitical risks [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have surged significantly, with spot gold breaking the $4000 per ounce mark, marking a year-to-date increase of over 52% [1][4] - COMEX gold futures also rose, reaching $4018.4 per ounce, indicating strong market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4] - Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued central bank purchases [4] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with Lao Miao gold jewelry priced at 1176 RMB per gram and Chow Sang Sang gold jewelry at 1165 RMB per gram [3][4] - The market's support for safe-haven assets has significantly strengthened, contributing to the rise in international gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has historically surpassed the $4000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as the U.S. government shutdown, a pullback in tech stocks, and global political uncertainties [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Investors are flocking to the gold market seeking refuge amid escalating global economic and geopolitical risks, with gold prices soaring over 50% this year [4]. - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily catalyzed by the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed key economic data and increased uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [4][5]. - Market expectations suggest a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, which typically enhances the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [5]. Group 2: Global Political Factors - Political turmoil in various regions, including France and Japan, has intensified concerns over fiscal risks, further boosting demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6]. - The resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire and the potential leadership change in Japan have contributed to market uncertainty, prompting increased investment in gold [5][6]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The narratives of "de-dollarization" and "de-globalization" are providing structural support for the long-term rise in gold prices, as global investors shift from the dollar to safe-haven assets [7]. - Strong institutional demand is a significant characteristic of the current bull market, with central banks, including the People's Bank of China, actively increasing their gold reserves [8]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment - Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts caution about potential short-term pullbacks due to the rapid pace of price increases, suggesting that profit-taking may occur [9]. - More strategists recommend that investors increase their gold allocation to hedge against dollar risks and prepare for future market shocks, with a suggested allocation of around 5% [9].

10月8日，纽约黄金期货在日前突破4000美元每盎司大关后继续上涨。截至发稿，纽约黄金期货价格已 超4027美元，其它黄金相关期货也纷纷上涨。 据每日经济新闻报道，多位市场分析人士认为，这轮金价迅速攀升的背后，是地缘政治紧张、美联储政 策预期摇摆及美国政府"停摆"危机叠加引发的避险情绪爆发。尤其是在非农就业数据延迟、美联储沟通 窗口模糊的背景下，黄金作为避险资产的独特价值再次凸显。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，特朗普政府上台后，全球政治、经济形势出现新变化，国际金价有 可能在相当长一段时间内易涨难跌。王青分析，9月美联储恢复降息，美国政府持续对美联储货币政策 独立性施加压力，加之国际地缘政治风险居高不下，带动当月国际金价涨幅明显扩大。 受此影响，高盛日前已将2026年12月金价预期从此前的每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元，理由包括西方 市场交易所交易基金（ETF）资金流入强劲，以及各国央行有望持续购金。 此外，现货伦敦金价格截至发稿也已超4000美元，在年内已涨超50%的情况下又创历史新高。 ...

来源：万乾金wqj068 操作建议参考：日内多头策略： 1. 激进者回调3960-3965轻仓多，损8点，目标看3980-3990； 2. 稳健待回调3940-3945一线多，损8点，目标看3965-3975。 日内空头策略： 1. 激进者尝试3995-3998轻仓空，损8点，目标看3980-3970。 周三（10月8日）亚盘，现货黄金延续历史性涨势。金价在周二盘中再度刷新历史高位。受美国政府长期停摆、市场对美联储进一 步降息预期升温影响，市场纷纷转向避险资产，推动这一贵金属价格上涨，反映出市场焦虑情绪不断加剧。 昨日黄金市场延续强势拉升趋势：早盘开盘在3959美元/盎司，开盘后先小幅回落，最低至3940美元/盎司，美盘时段，行情休整蓄 力后再次强势拉升，最高触及3990.93美元/盎司，最终收报3986美元/盎司，日内涨幅0.6%。日线收取下影线较长的中阳线形态。周 线已连续第八周延续涨势。 黄金日线图显示，上行趋势依然稳固，但黄金价格远高于关键移动平均线。 动量指标显示市场严重超买：RSI约85，随机振荡器KDJ接近93；ADX高于62，表明多头趋势依然强劲； 综合来看："强趋势+极端动量"显示短期涨势或 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.2%, Nasdaq down 0.67%, and S&P 500 down 0.38% [1] - Popular tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla dropping over 4% and Google down over 1%, while AMD and Intel saw gains of over 3% and 1% respectively [1] - The cryptocurrency sector and semiconductor equipment and materials faced significant declines, with Strategy down over 8% and ASML down nearly 4% [1] Chinese Market - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 2.24%, with major Chinese concept stocks experiencing widespread declines, including Century Internet down over 6% and Alibaba down over 3% [3] Commodity Market - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.79%, closing at $4007.9 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell by 1.64%, closing at $47.655 per ounce [4] - WTI crude oil futures increased by 0.06%, closing at $61.73 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures decreased by 0.03%, closing at $65.45 per barrel [5] French Bond Market - The French bond market faced severe sell-offs amid political turmoil, with the 10-year bond yield surpassing 3.6%, nearing levels seen during the 2011 Eurozone crisis [6] - The resignation of key political figures, including the newly appointed Defense Minister Le Maire, has raised concerns about France's fiscal stability [6][7] Global Market Trends - During the recent holiday period, overseas markets showed strong performance, particularly in the technology and semiconductor sectors, driven by positive sentiment and expectations for AI demand [9] - Gold prices surged due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties, reflecting a strong demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [11] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with expectations for domestic markets to improve following strong performances in overseas markets [12][14]

Core Insights - The price of COMEX gold futures has surpassed the $4000 per ounce mark, reaching a peak of $4000.1 on October 7, 2025, marking a significant milestone in the gold bull market with a year-to-date increase of 50% [1][4] - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the eleventh consecutive month, now holding 74.06 million ounces, indicating a strategic move towards diversifying international reserves [2][6] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold price has experienced a remarkable rise from $2600 at the beginning of 2025, with significant increases occurring in January and April, and a rapid ascent in September, culminating in the historic $4000 breakthrough [4] - Multiple factors are driving the surge in gold prices, including loose monetary policies and declining real interest rates, which make gold more attractive to investors [4][5] - Geopolitical risks have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing uncertainties in the U.S. government and European economies contributing to this trend [5][16] Central Bank Strategies - Central banks globally are collectively increasing their gold holdings, providing strong support for gold prices, with major buyers including China, Poland, Singapore, and India [5][11] - China's cautious approach to gold accumulation reflects a long-term strategic intent to enhance reserve security and reduce reliance on single currency assets [15][11] Market Participation and Future Outlook - The participation of individual investors has evolved, with younger investors engaging in gold purchases through innovative platforms, expanding the demand base significantly [7] - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding future gold prices, with bullish forecasts suggesting potential increases to $5000 or $4200 per ounce, while cautious perspectives highlight risks of short-term corrections [9][11] - The competition from alternative assets, such as cryptocurrencies, poses a potential challenge to gold demand, as younger investors may be drawn to these digital assets [13] Historical Context and Evolution - The historical trajectory of gold prices reflects significant phases aligned with changes in the global monetary system, from steady growth in the early 2000s to the recent bull market driven by complex factors [15][17] - Gold's role has evolved from a marginal asset to a core component in addressing sovereign credit risks and geopolitical conflicts, reinforcing its status as a critical asset in uncertain times [17]