地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 30 日 冠通每日交易策略 热点品种 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面高开后窄幅震荡，收盘涨幅 0.78%。国际方面，美国 干旱监测报告显示，截至 6 月 24 日，大豆作物处于干旱地区的比例为 12%，一 周前 13%，去年同期 7%。气象预报显示，7 月初美国玉米带将迎来温暖且伴有适 度降雨的天气，有助于大豆作物生长。国内方面，监测显示，截至 6 月 27 日当 周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量 249 万吨，周环比上升 10 万吨，月环比上升 22 万 吨，同比上升 31 万吨，创历史单周新高。预计本周油厂开机率维持高位，大豆 压榨量在 230 万吨左右。综合来看，美国大豆作物生长条件良好，未来几周还将 迎来适度降雨，提振大豆产量前景。国内油厂开工率不断攀升，豆粕库存持续增 加，终端需求平稳，部分地区出现胀库催提现象，但在美盘大豆反弹后带动进口 大豆成本增加对市场提供支撑，油厂及贸易商试探性小幅上调豆粕价格，不过油 厂挺粕动力依然不强，其上行幅度有限，预计豆 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据报道，随着7月9日关税谈判截止日期临近，印尼宣布将放宽多项产品进口管制， 并向美国提出共同开发关键矿产项目的合作邀约。 周一，这个东南亚最大经济体表示将放宽或取消对十大类商品及原材料的进口限制，涵盖林产品、珍 珠、补贴化肥、部分燃料与化学品、塑料原料、食品托盘、自行车及鞋类等商品。 负责牵头应对美国32%关税威胁的印尼经济统筹部长Airlangga Hartarto表示，这些措施既有助于与美国 的关税谈判，也能推动印尼实现更广泛的经贸目标，包括与欧盟达成贸易协定及加入经合组织 (OECD)。 这些政策调整正值全球贸易紧张局势加剧、东南亚区域竞争升温之际。印尼正试图将自身打造成更具吸 引力的国际投资目的地，但该国在国际管理发展学院最新发布的全球竞争力报告中排名下滑了13位。 整体放宽措施也标志着总统普拉博沃・苏比安托改善印尼商业环境的早期举措之一。这位总统此前曾强 调，印尼需简化行政流程、提升竞争力，以加速经济增长并实现发展目标。 Hartarto表示，这些将在未来数月内生效的政策调整，部分源于区域竞争压力及全球贸易局势的整体紧 张，同时也契合总统缓解经济不确定性的指示。他补充道，后续还将 ...

尽管政府高层上周表示有望在7月9日截止日期前与十余个美国主要贸易伙伴达成协议，但若以此前与中国、英国达成的协议为参照，这些协议很可能只 是涉及有限议题的框架性文件，核心问题将被留待后续谈判。 杜克大学国际贸易法专家蒂姆·迈耶（Tim Meyer）教授指出："预计白宫将宣布若干被其称为贸易协议的框架文件，但这些文件根本不符合常规认知中 的贸易协定标准。" SHMET 网讯：距离特朗普重启对等关税措施仅剩10天之际，白宫似乎难以兑现其暂停关税三个月期间承诺的全面全球贸易改革目标。 "我不认为需要延期，" 他在上周五录制的采访中向主持人表示，但随即补充道："不过真要延也不是什么大事。" 最后期限前的混乱局面愈演愈烈：各国领导人加紧游说、代表团密集访问华盛顿，而特朗普团队却不断释放自相矛盾的谈判信号。据知情人士透露，美 国与中国台湾地区、印尼已接近达成协议，与越南、韩国的协定也有望落地。 特朗普本人多次暗示将与印度达成协议，上周双方谈判代表在华盛顿就关键问题僵局展开磋商。美欧双方对达成共识也表现出更乐观态度。 商务部长卢特尼克上周四表示将在截止日前完成与主要经济体的"十大贸易协议"，其他国家的谈判将随后跟进。卡托研究 ...

特朗普及其顾问在7月9日前的表态让投资者人心惶惶，他们对哪些国家接近达成协议、哪些进展不顺的 暗示模糊不清。这一结果将影响特朗普贸易议程的未来——作为其2024年竞选核心议题之一，此事对全 球经济及美国与盟友、对手的关系都至关重要。即便相关度极高，政府是否会严守截止日期或延长谈判 时间仍未可知。 贝森特上周五表示，约20个未在周三国会前达成协议的国家可继续谈判，但若被认定"真诚协商"，关税 税率可维持10%，否则恢复至4月2日的较高水平。 智通财经APP获悉，距离唐纳德·特朗普总统重启国别关税仅剩10天，白宫似乎难以兑现其在三个月谈 判窗口期内达成全面全球贸易改革的承诺。特朗普高级顾问本周透露，预计将在7月9日截止日前与多达 12个美国主要贸易伙伴达成协议。但从特朗普任内仅有的另外两项协议(与中国和英国)来看，这些协议 可能并非解决核心问题的全面协定，而是仅涉及有限议题、将许多细节留待后续谈判的框架性文件。 杜克大学法学院国际贸易专家蒂姆·迈耶(Tim Meyer)指出："预计白宫将宣布若干被称为'贸易协议'的框 架，但这些协议不符合任何人对'贸易协议'的常规理解。"美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特(Scott B ...

Group 1 - The global trade environment is significantly impacted by tariff wars, leading to increased import costs and reduced export profits for companies, particularly in manufacturing [3][10] - In 2023, global trade growth dropped to 1.7%, a significant decline compared to previous years, indicating a broader economic slowdown [3] - Chinese exporters faced a 15% profit reduction due to tariffs, while the average price of imported consumer goods rose by 8% [3] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is particularly hard-hit, with a reported 5% job loss in the industry and over 30,000 small businesses shutting down [3][6] - Consumer prices have increased, with the consumer price index rising by 2.5% in 2023, affecting low-income households the most [6] - The job market is tightening, with a reported 5.8% layoff rate and a significant decrease in new job creation, impacting various sectors including IT and automotive [6][10] Group 3 - Companies are encouraged to adapt by investing in employee training and skill development to remain competitive in a changing economic landscape [8][10] - Financial strategies should focus on long-term stability, with recommendations for low-risk investments such as government bonds and fixed deposits [8] - The government is promoting local consumption and innovation, providing support for small and micro enterprises, which could present new opportunities for growth [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, highlighting China's firm opposition to U.S. tariffs and the broader implications for global trade dynamics [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Strategy - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" are characterized as a gamble, with a sudden increase of 10% tariffs on all trade partners and a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, aiming to reshape global trade rules through unilateral actions [4]. - The U.S. strategy involves a "divide and conquer" approach, attempting to isolate trade partners and force them into unequal agreements, as evidenced by the announcement of potential agreements with select countries while sidelining others [4][6]. - The European Union faces a dilemma, with leaders warning against accepting unequal agreements while preparing for potential high tariffs [4]. Group 2: China’s Response and Strategy - China has established a counter-strategy, including significant price reductions in semiconductor manufacturing and strengthening regional trade agreements, such as the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area [9]. - The Chinese government emphasizes its control over strategic resources, particularly rare earth elements, which are crucial for U.S. military applications, indicating a strategic leverage point in the trade conflict [7][11]. - China's response mechanisms have evolved, with quicker reaction times and a more sophisticated array of countermeasures, including tariffs and legal actions through the WTO [11]. Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights the shifting trade landscape, with ASEAN's trade with China surpassing that with the U.S., indicating a realignment of global trade relationships [9]. - The establishment of a cross-border payment system in RMB and various currency swap agreements signifies China's efforts to enhance its financial influence globally [9]. - The ongoing negotiations and strategic maneuvers reflect a broader struggle for dominance in global trade, with both nations seeking to secure their interests amid rising tensions [3][9].

全球贸易局势引发市场波动。世界贸易组织数据显示，2025年全球商品贸易增速预期已从2%下调至-0.2%，而国 际货币基金组织（IMF）亦将全球经济增速预测从3.3%降至2.8%，滞胀风险显著上升。与此同时，各国央行政策 分化明显：美联储连续四次"按兵不动"，欧洲三央行则选择降息以应对衰退压力，政策不确定性进一步推升市场 避险情绪，促使监管政策持续趋严。 在此背景下，投资者亟需依托兼具灵活性与安全性的交易平台，以应对金融市场复杂环境中的多重挑战。一款优 秀的交易平台不仅能帮助投资者捕捉跨市场机遇，更需通过技术创新与严格合规构建风险"护城河"。 应对金融市场波动：多元产品矩阵与多空双向交易机制 面对市场剧烈波动，AC资本市场（ACCM）通过全品类资产覆盖与双向交易机制，为投资者提供风险分散与收益 增强的双重保障。 多元化资产布局：AC资本市场（ACCM）平台涵盖外汇、贵金属、指数及大宗商品等多种热门差价合约产品。投 资者可灵活使用高达1:800的交易杠杆，最低交易0.01手，享受极具竞争力的点差，显著降低交易成本。 多空双向盈利模式：AC资本市场（ACCM）平台支持多空双向交易，打破传统单边交易限制，无论市场涨跌 ...

新华财经北京6月27日电 2025年4月，加拿大实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.1%，结束了3月的增 长趋势。其中，商品生产行业整体下滑0.6%，尤其是制造业成为主要拖累因素，环比大幅下降1.9%。 耐用消费品和非耐用消费品制造分别下降2.2%和1.6%，反映出关税不确定性对运输设备制造以及食品 和石油产业的负面影响。 与此同时，服务生产行业微增0.1%，公共管理、金融保险和艺术娱乐等领域贡献了增长。值得注意的 是，金融和保险行业增长达到0.7%，创下自2024年8月以来的最大增幅，得益于美股关税公告引发的高 频交易活动。此外，艺术、娱乐和休闲行业也实现了2.8%的增长，这主要是由于加拿大NHL球队季后 赛入场率的提升所致。 图为：加拿大4月实际国内生产总值小幅下滑来源：加拿大统计局 图为：加拿大4月份各主要工业部门对国内生产总值百分比变化的贡献来源：加拿大统计局 尽管如此，批发贸易行业下滑1.9%，机动车及零部件批发因进出口减少而受到严重打击。资源行业方 面，虽然油气提取子行业受天然气和原油产量下降影响，但油气支持活动因钻井活动增加而有所上升。 展望未来，5月的实际GDP预计将继续下降0.1%，显示出 ...

Core Insights - The WTO's latest assessment reveals a contradictory and uncertain global trade landscape, with strong growth driven by panic buying ahead of anticipated tariff increases, raising questions about sustainability [1][3] - The global goods trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021, indicating active trade above the normal level [1] Group 1 - The strong growth in trade at the beginning of the year is largely attributed to importers making large-scale purchases in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff hikes, leading to a temporary "stockpiling trend" [3] - The WTO warns that the current trade environment remains fragile, with significant uncertainties that could lead to a broader trade recession if U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are fully implemented [3] Group 2 - Among the indicators that make up the trade barometer index, export orders are the only category showing negative growth, with the "new export orders index" dropping to 97.9, indicating a contraction [3] - The report suggests that the strong growth in trade volumes observed in early 2025 may be a result of importers increasing purchases to avoid future costs, which could lead to a slowdown in trade growth later in the year as sellers reduce inventory [3]

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is currently in a state of stagnation, awaiting the direction of global trade policies after July 9, which poses risks for concentrated asset classes if investors misjudge the situation [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - Investors are particularly focused on the upcoming trade policy changes, with a significant emphasis on the potential impact of the U.S. tariff suspension period ending [1] - The current market sentiment is characterized by extreme consensus among investors, leading to heightened risks for certain trades [1] Group 2: Concentrated Trades - According to a monthly survey by Bank of America, the three most crowded trades as of June are: 1. Long positions in gold, with 41% of respondents identifying it as the most crowded trade 2. Long positions in the "Seven Giants" tech stocks, with 23% of respondents 3. Short positions in the U.S. dollar, with 20% of respondents [1] - If trade negotiations fail or policy direction reverses after July 9, these highly concentrated trades could experience significant volatility [1]