Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures down 0.59%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.51% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.91%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.45%, France's CAC40 down 0.85%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.95% [2][3] Oil Market - WTI crude oil increased by 1.11% to $67.31 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 0.96% to $69.30 per barrel [3][4] Economic Insights - Thrasher Analytics reports that the volume of declining stocks has reached a low of 42% of total trading volume, indicating potential overconfidence in the market [5] - The upcoming earnings season is expected to be a significant test for the market [5] Federal Reserve Outlook - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests that two rate cuts this year are still possible, with manageable impacts from tariffs on inflation [5] Liquidity Concerns - The potential rebuilding of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to a liquidity loss of approximately $510 billion by the end of September, impacting market liquidity [5] Oil Demand Forecast - OPEC predicts that global oil demand will continue to rise, projecting an increase from 103.7 million barrels per day last year to 113.3 million barrels per day by 2030, and nearing 123 million barrels per day by 2050 [6] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has reached a new high of $118,000, driven by strong institutional demand and favorable policies from the Trump administration [7] Company Developments - Apple plans to launch a series of new products in early 2026, including a new low-end iPhone and upgraded Mac computers, aiming to revitalize growth [8] - Tesla has applied to test its Robotaxi service in Arizona, indicating a push to catch up with Waymo in the autonomous vehicle market [9] - BP expects an increase in oil production and strong trading performance in Q2, signaling a positive outlook for the company [10] - SAP's CEO is optimistic about revenue growth driven by customer migration to cloud services, with a focus on deep analytics and data services [11]

Group 1 - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly believes that there may be two interest rate cuts this year, and the impact of tariffs on prices may be smaller than expected [1] - Some companies are negotiating to share tariff costs, which reduces the burden on consumers, leading to a lower need to pass on costs [1] - The Fed's June meeting minutes revealed a divergence among officials regarding the long-term impact of tariffs on inflation, with some expecting a one-time price increase while others foresee lasting effects [1][2] Group 2 - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated that the effects of tariffs on prices may become more apparent in data from June to September [2] - Musalem emphasized that it is still too early to determine whether the inflation effects from tariffs will be temporary or persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 29-30, with investors currently expecting a rate cut in September based on futures contracts [3]

Group 1 - The strong US dollar has led to a decline in gold prices, reaching a near one-week low as investors await trade details before the tariff deadline [1] - Recent strong US economic data, including robust job growth in June, has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthening the dollar and causing a slight pullback in gold prices [1] - Despite the short-term fluctuations, the overall trend for gold remains bullish, although caution is advised for potential significant corrections in the near term [1] Group 2 - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, market sentiment has cooled as negotiations in the Middle East resume, contributing to uncertainty in the market [3] - Gold prices opened lower and experienced a significant drop, reaching a low of 3295, with an intraday decline of nearly 50 USD, indicating a deep pullback [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified between 3292-3288, while resistance is seen at 3315-3322, suggesting potential short-term trading strategies [3][4]

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-07-01 研究所 分析师:李起 SAC 登记编号:S1340524110001 Email:liqi2@cnpsec.com 研究助理:高晓洁 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020001 Email:gaoxiaojie@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《海外宏观周报：关税扰动下，联储降 息仍需等待》 - 2025.06.24 宏观观点 海外宏观周报：降息预期升温，美股表现积极 ⚫ 核心观点： 本周五，美国将公布 6 月非农就业报告，鉴于近期多项相关数据 如申领失业金人数、经济评议会劳动力市场调查等均显示就业市场明 显有所走弱，这份非农报告或将体现就业市场继续放缓，这将压制未 来服务通胀，并为美联储进一步降息打开空间。从上周美联储理事鲍 曼鸽派发言后的市场表现来看，美股对降息预期升温的反应相当积 极，如果非农就业数据延续近期温和走弱的态势，短期内有望进一步 提振股市表现。 美国国债长端利率的调整可能已基本到位。目前，期限溢价处于 历史高位。其次，30 年期国债与 30 年期隔夜指数掉期（OIS）利差显 示，美国财政状况也已被投资者充分定价。上周末，"大而美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various macroeconomic trends and investment strategies, emphasizing the importance of understanding global economic shifts and their implications for investment decisions [3][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Analysis - The report highlights the "restructuring of global order" as a significant theme, suggesting that investors should capture trading signals related to this shift [3]. - It notes the contrasting economic styles of Guangdong and Jiangsu, indicating regional differences in economic performance and investment opportunities [3]. - The article analyzes the impact of U.S. tariffs on inflation, presenting five key reflections on how these tariffs influence the economic landscape [3]. Group 2: Financial Data Insights - The report provides insights into industrial profits, indicating that corporate pressures may be transmitted to the asset side, affecting overall financial stability [3]. - It discusses the dual mission of consumption in the economy, reflecting on how consumer behavior influences economic data [3]. - The article examines the reasons behind unexpected increases in economic indicators, particularly focusing on PMI data [3]. Group 3: Policy Tracking - The report tracks fiscal support for the real estate sector, providing insights into government policies aimed at stabilizing this critical industry [4]. - It discusses the expansion of supervisory laws, indicating a broader regulatory environment that may impact investment strategies [4]. - The article emphasizes ongoing reforms and opening-up policies, suggesting that these will continue to shape the investment landscape [4]. Group 4: Annual and Semi-Annual Reports - The report includes projections for 2025, indicating a focus on long-term investment strategies and market outlooks [4]. - It discusses mid-term strategies for 2024, emphasizing the importance of pricing strategies in investment decisions [4]. - The article reflects on the macroeconomic environment of 2023, providing insights into potential growth areas [4].

Group 1 - The discussion around the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has intensified, with recent economic data suggesting a growing necessity for such cuts despite previous statements from Chairman Powell indicating no urgent need [1] - There is a notable divergence among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of potential rate cuts, with no extreme hawkish views present, indicating a consensus on the need for some form of easing [1][11] - The market is increasingly leaning towards a dovish interpretation of the Fed's stance, leading to a parallel downward shift of approximately 10 basis points across the yield curve [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economic momentum index has seen a year-over-year growth rate decline since May, aligning closely with the movements of the U.S. dollar index, suggesting a reasonable feedback loop between the dollar's performance and the economic fundamentals [2] - Following the easing of tariffs, there has been a slight recovery in corporate capital expenditure expectations, although they remain at levels comparable to last September, indicating a slow recovery [7] - The recent comments from Fed officials have further solidified the certainty of potential rate cuts, with non-farm payroll data expected to play a crucial role in determining the path of these cuts [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts in the U.S. as economic data signals a weakening labor market, despite the Federal Reserve's previous stance that the labor market is not in distress [1][3][11]. Economic Indicators - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials indicate a shift towards a more dovish outlook, with discussions around the conditions for potential rate cuts intensifying [3][14]. - The U.S. economic momentum index has fallen back to levels seen in September of the previous year, aligning closely with the trends in the U.S. dollar index [4]. - The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index has declined, further confirming the cooling trend in the labor market [11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - Officials emphasize that tariffs do not solely drive inflation; rather, both demand and supply-side factors are suppressing price increases [5]. - Analysis of inflation changes in goods with HS-4 codes shows a weak correlation between tariff increases and CPI growth, indicating limited impact on overall inflation levels [5]. - Technological advancements in various sectors, such as toys and electronics, contribute to long-term price declines, counteracting the one-time effects of tariffs [5]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Following a period of recession-level expectations, U.S. corporate capital expenditure (CAPEX) forecasts have shown some recovery, although they remain at levels similar to those in September of the previous year [10]. Market Sentiment - The market is increasingly pricing in a faster or larger rate cut, although this sentiment has not been fully captured in market pricing [14]. - The recent statements from Fed officials have increased the certainty of rate cuts, with a consensus emerging around the potential for a downward shift in economic conditions [14].

Group 1: Market Overview - Major global stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at 42,982.43, down by 106.59 points, and the Nasdaq at 19,973.55, up by 61.02 points, reflecting a slight increase of 0.31% [1] - European indices, such as the Euro Stoxx 50 and the UK FTSE 100, experienced declines of 0.85% and 0.46% respectively, while Asian indices like the Shanghai Composite and the Hang Seng Index saw gains of 1.04% and 1.23% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the risks of sustained inflation due to tariffs are significant enough to make the Fed cautious about further rate cuts, despite recent lower-than-expected inflation rates [5][6] - Powell emphasized that the impact of tariffs on prices may not be a one-time shock, suggesting that the Fed will wait to see if prices genuinely begin to rise before making any decisions on rate cuts [6] Group 3: Cryptocurrency in Housing Finance - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has issued a directive to include cryptocurrencies in the risk assessment for single-family residential mortgages, marking a significant shift in the U.S. housing finance system [9] - This directive acknowledges the growing role of cryptocurrencies in household financial portfolios and suggests potential wealth accumulation opportunities outside traditional markets [9] Group 4: Company Performance - Nvidia's stock rose over 4%, reaching a new closing high of $154.31, driven by investor confidence in its leadership in the AI sector, despite concerns over potential impacts from Chinese export controls [11] - Micron Technology reported a 37% year-over-year increase in sales for its third fiscal quarter, reaching $9.3 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $8.85 billion, and projected fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $10.7 billion, a 38% increase year-over-year [12][14]

Core Points - The U.S. President has identified 3-4 potential successors for the Federal Reserve Chairman position [2][5] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasizes the need for caution regarding interest rate cuts, particularly in light of potential inflation from tariffs [3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Powell indicates that while tariffs may initially cause a one-time price increase, the long-term inflation risks must be carefully considered before making further interest rate cuts [3] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) still anticipates two interest rate cuts this year, but the timing remains uncertain, reflecting internal divisions among officials [3][4] - Powell's recent testimonies highlight the importance of understanding the final levels of tariffs and their economic impacts before adjusting monetary policy [3][4] Group 2: Political Pressure and Succession - President Trump has publicly criticized Powell multiple times, suggesting that he is considering candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chairman [5][6] - Potential candidates for the position include former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, current Fed Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Bessent, with Waller being a frontrunner due to his calls for rate cuts [5][6] - Analysts express concerns that an early confirmation of Powell's successor could lead to confusion in monetary policy if their views differ significantly from Powell's [7]

鲍威尔赴国会山翌日，市场继续聚焦降息时间表。 截至发稿，美股涨跌不一，纳指与标普500指数飘红，道指下跌。 美股科技七巨头多数上涨，英伟达盘中股价创下五个月新高，再超微软成为全球市值最高的公司；特斯 拉则因欧洲销量断崖式下滑暴跌近5%。 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特斯拉 | 325.880 | -14.590 | -4.29% | | TSLA | | | | | 亚马逊 | 212.908 | +0.138 | +0.06% | | AMZN | | | | | 谷歌-C | 171.930 | +4.190 | +2.50% | | GOOG | | | | | Meta Platforms | 709.527 | -2.673 | -0.38% | | META | | | | | 微软 | 491.685 | +1.575 | +0.32% | | MSFT | | | | | 苹果 | 201.823 | +1.523 | +0.76% | | AAPL | | | | | 英伟达 | 152.095 | +4.195 ...