Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.17% at 3,615 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77% and the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%[17] - The Hang Seng Index declined 1.36% to 25,176 points, marking a five-day losing streak, with significant drops in major tech stocks[13] - U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 44,461 points and the S&P 500 down 0.12% at 6,362 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.15% to 21,129 points[11] Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3.0%, significantly improving from a contraction of 0.5% in Q1[31] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with a shift in focus towards the perception of tariff-induced inflation as a one-time event, impacting future rate cut expectations[7] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rose over 1%, with WTI crude oil reaching $70.0 per barrel, influenced by geopolitical tensions and sanctions[28] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.9% to 99.82, marking a two-month high, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3,295.8 per ounce[28] - Copper prices plummeted by 18% after the U.S. excluded refined copper from new tariffs, leading to significant market volatility[5] Corporate Earnings Highlights - Microsoft reported Q4 earnings exceeding expectations, with net profit of $27.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%, driven by strong growth in cloud and AI services[9] - Meta's Q2 net profit rose 36% to $18.337 billion, with revenue growth of 22% to $47.52 billion, surpassing market forecasts[9] Bond Market Trends - U.S. Treasury yields rose by 4-7 basis points, with the 2-year yield at 3.94% and the 10-year yield at 4.37% following the Fed's decision to hold rates steady[6] - Asian bond markets showed mixed performance, with Chinese investment-grade bonds remaining stable amid varying yield spreads[31]

中信证券认为，预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息；中金公司表示，美联储9月或难以降息。 美联储7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，为连续第五次会议按兵不动。美联储发表声明称，两位美联储 理事投票反对继续维持利率不变，他们主张将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点。鲍威尔表示，尚未 就9月利率做出任何决定。通胀隐忧风险下，美联储最快何时能降息？以下为部分机构点评汇总： ①中信证券：预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息 中信证券认为，美联储2025年7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预期。鲍威尔发言未透露出太 多9月利率调整的前景。本次记者会最值得关注的是美联储对关税通胀的判断再次发生变化，"关税通胀 是一次性的"是鲍威尔当前认为的合理的基准情形。在"关税通胀是一次性的"假设叠加美国经济增长弱 于去年的情况下，"适度限制性的"利率政策应当减少限制性。维持此前观点，预计美联储将在9月的议 息会议上再度降息。 ②华泰证券：美联储9月能否降息主要取决于7-8月经济数据 华泰证券认为，基本面方面，鲍威尔强调就业市场较为稳健（solid），但承认存在下行风险。利率指引 方面，鲍威尔未对9月降息给出明确指引，强调降息决策取决于 ...

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50% and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged at $50 billion per month for U.S. Treasuries and $35 billion per month for MBS[5] - Powell expressed concerns about stagflation risks, indicating that as long as the inflation gap exceeds the employment gap, the Fed will find it difficult to lower interest rates[7] Inflation and Tariffs - As of May, the actual tariff rate for the U.S. was approximately 9.6%, with potential increases to 15%-16% after new tariffs take effect on August 1, and possibly up to 18%-19% when considering specific goods[2] - The effective tariff rate could pose an inflation risk of 30-60 basis points, with the impact on inflation data expected to manifest in September and further affect October-November figures[2] Market Outlook - Short-term volatility in U.S. stocks is anticipated, but the medium-term outlook remains bullish due to trade agreements and supportive government policies[3] - The market currently prices a 45.2% probability of a rate cut in September, indicating that the risk-free rate is no longer a positive factor[8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy grew by 1.2% in the first half of the year, down from 2.5% the previous year, with consumer spending slowing and real estate remaining weak[4] - Labor market conditions are showing synchronized declines in demand and supply, with a focus on the unemployment rate as a key indicator[6]

中信证券：预计美联储将在9月议息会议上再度降息 金十数据7月31日讯，中信证券研报表示，美联储2025年7月议息会议维持政策利率不变，符合市场预 期。鲍威尔发言未透露出太多9月利率调整的前景。本次记者会最值得关注的是美联储对关税通胀的判 断再次发生变化，"关税通胀是一次性的"是鲍威尔当前认为的合理的基准情形。在"关税通胀是一次性 的"假设叠加美国经济增长弱于去年的情况下，"适度限制性的"利率政策应当减少限制性。维持此前观 点，预计美联储将在9月的议息会议上再度降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook, particularly regarding inflation and labor market trends, which may influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions [1] Group 1 - Ashish Shah from Goldman Sachs Asset Management suggests that if inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve may resume its easing cycle in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming data over the next two months will be crucial for economic outlook and Federal Reserve policy decisions [1] Group 1 - If inflation caused by tariffs is milder than expected, or if there are signs of a weakening labor market, the Federal Reserve is likely to resume easing measures in the fall [1]

Core Viewpoint - The process of inflation returning to the 2% target is already more than halfway complete [1] Group 1: Inflation Insights - It is not possible to isolate the impact of tariffs on inflation issues [1] - Service inflation has significantly slowed down, while goods inflation is on the rise [1] - The current observed tariff inflation is just the beginning [1]

美联储主席鲍威尔：我们现在看到的是关税通胀的非常初期阶段。 ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen reiterated that the Federal Reserve's analysis on tariff-induced inflation is incorrect and expressed hope that the Fed could demonstrate "a bit of imagination" [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Actions - It is expected that there will be no interest rate cuts today [1] - The market is currently digesting expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]

预计今天不会降息。 美国财长贝森特：重申美联储在关税通胀问题上（的分析）错了。 希望美联储能够展现"一点想象力"。 重申市场正在消化美联储降息（预期）。 ...