Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration indicates significant changes to the export tax rebate policies for photovoltaic products and batteries, which may impact the financial performance of companies in these sectors starting from 2026 [2] Group 1: Policy Changes - From April 1, 2026, the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products will be canceled [2] - From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and will be completely canceled starting January 1, 2027 [2] - The consumption tax policy for products subject to consumption tax will remain unchanged, continuing to apply the consumption tax rebate (exemption) policy [2] Group 2: Implementation Details - The applicable export tax rebate rates for the listed products will be determined based on the export date indicated on the customs declaration [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products, indicating a shift towards a mature industry that no longer requires policy support [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Starting from April 1, 2026, the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products will be eliminated, and the rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% until the end of 2026, after which it will also be canceled [1]. - Prior to this, the export rebate rate for certain products, including photovoltaic and battery products, was reduced from 13% to 9% on December 1, 2024 [1]. Group 2: Industry Competitiveness - The reduction and eventual cancellation of export tax rebates reflect the enhanced global competitiveness of China's photovoltaic and battery products, which account for approximately 80% of global solar cells and 70% of lithium batteries [1][2]. - The industry has reached a stage where the support from export tax rebates is limited due to established technological, scale, and cost advantages [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The cancellation of export tax rebates is expected to accelerate market clearing, leading to the elimination of smaller companies that rely heavily on these rebates for profitability, while larger firms with technological and cost advantages will strengthen their market positions [2]. - The photovoltaic industry has faced severe price declines, with prices dropping from $0.24 per watt at the beginning of 2023 to $0.09 per watt, resulting in a 33% year-on-year decrease in export value for 2024 [2]. Group 4: Fiscal Resource Optimization - The removal of export tax rebates for strong industries allows for better allocation of fiscal resources towards domestic demand and social welfare, addressing challenges such as insufficient effective demand and overcapacity in certain sectors [3]. - The adjustments in export tax rebates are part of a broader strategy to enhance macroeconomic regulation, ensuring that fiscal resources are directed towards areas that require more support, such as consumer subsidies and employment assistance [3].

以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 一德菁英汇 . 期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 一德菁菁 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览版： 光伏：短期抢出口，长期促出清 长期：压缩电池企业的出口利润，但中国电池在全球市场仍具备较强竞争力，且对上游原料价格的长期影响有限。 PVC：强化出口导向与价格支撑 短期：目前盘面反应偏积极，政策抬升了价格重心； 中长期：政策被产业普遍解读为利好，成本顺势转嫁，加速国内高成本产能退出，优化供给格局。 近日，财政部、税务总局联合发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》。结合本次公告内容，我们来谈谈对期货的影响。 光伏 根据财政部、税务总局公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏产品增值税出口退税，清单中包含硅片、电池片及组件。 短期：预计在2026年一季度引发抢出口，可能支撑组件、电池片等下游环节的价格，并减缓其减产计划； 长期：增加企业出口成本，有利于加速落后产能出清，促进行业整合。 锂电：分步取消，影响相对温和 短期：2026年二季度前存抢出口预期，对上游原料需求形成一定短期利好，但力度可能弱于光伏； 近几年PVC出口占比逐年提升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures contract surged to over 150,000, with expectations of strong demand despite seasonal trends, influenced by recent changes in export tax policies for battery products [3][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Ministry of Finance announced a reduction in the VAT export rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete removal of the rebate from January 1, 2027, affecting materials like cathodes and lithium hexafluorophosphate [3][8]. - There is an expectation of a rush in exports in the first quarter due to these policy changes, potentially leading to a demand scenario that defies typical seasonal patterns [3][8]. Group 2: Supply and Production - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 115 tons to 22,535 tons, with specific increases in various lithium extraction methods: spodumene by 35 tons, lepidolite by 20 tons, salt lake lithium by 40 tons, and recycled materials by 20 tons [4][9]. - Weekly inventory rose by 337 tons to 109,942 tons, with downstream inventory decreasing by 2,458 tons, while upstream inventory increased by 715 tons [4][9]. Group 3: Pricing and Market Sentiment - The supply-demand balance is showing signs of weakening, with a shift from inventory reduction to accumulation, and prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate have dropped by 10% from their peak [4][9]. - The battery industry is facing irrational competition and blind expansion, which disrupts market order and sustainability, necessitating regulatory measures [4][9]. - Overall market sentiment remains optimistic in the short term, but there are warnings about potential price corrections following recent highs [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate futures has surged past 150,000 yuan per ton, indicating strong market demand and potential investment opportunities in the lithium sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 12, all lithium carbonate futures contracts were locked, with the main contract 2605 rising by 9% to 156,100 yuan per ton [2]. - The current market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate ranges from 141,500 to 154,800 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of 8,550 yuan compared to the previous trading day [3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, with a complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [3]. - This policy may influence the export rhythm of downstream battery companies, potentially leading to a "rush to export" behavior before the tax rate adjustment [5]. Group 3: Historical Context - The lithium battery industry has experienced two significant price fluctuation cycles since 2010, with lithium carbonate prices peaking at 180,000 yuan per ton in 2019 before dropping to 48,000 yuan per ton by the end of that year [6][7]. - The second wave of price fluctuations began in 2020, with prices reaching nearly 600,000 yuan per ton in 2022 due to high demand and profit margins, followed by a sharp decline to around 60,000 yuan per ton amid oversupply [7]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Since mid-September 2025, lithium carbonate prices have nearly doubled, driven by multiple factors including regulatory signals and production issues in key mining regions [8][9]. - The demand for lithium carbonate has exceeded expectations, particularly in the traditional peak seasons, with significant growth in the energy storage sector [9][10]. - Recent increases in operating rates among phosphate lithium enterprises have further boosted demand, leading to a temporary supply shortage and ongoing inventory depletion [10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The market is expected to face fluctuations due to simultaneous upstream maintenance and the traditional off-peak season from late January to February [10]. - The adjustment of the export tax policy may add uncertainty to short-term demand patterns, with potential for continued inventory reduction during the traditional off-peak period [10].

本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一 ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern. There are opportunities for bottom - fishing and long - position layout due to emotional disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit again, with the main contract rising to 156,080 yuan/ton. The current market is driven by the resonance of capital flow and policy changes. Short - term capital risk appetite has risen, and funds have concentrated on upstream resource sectors. The adjustment of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic and battery products has strengthened the market's expectation of short - term demand advancement and increased downstream production scheduling [2]. Fundamental Situation - Impact of export tax rebate adjustment: In the short term, before the tax rebate is gradually reduced, there is an incentive for battery and related products to be exported in advance, which supports the demand for lithium carbonate and its price. In the long term, the complete cancellation of the tax rebate will increase enterprise costs and compress profit margins, and the long - term impact is more reflected in the improvement of industry concentration and the acceleration of global layout [3]. - Supply side: There is still a risk of short - term supply tightness. Domestic policies and overseas fluctuations need to be noted. Domestic policies may affect short - term supply rhythms, and geopolitical and resource policies in Mali and South America have increased the market's expectation of overseas supply instability [3]. - Demand side: The marginal demand for lithium carbonate has weakened at the current stage, but the long - term expectation is still optimistic, especially the demand on the energy storage side is relatively stable. In the short term, the concentrated maintenance of some leading cathode material enterprises is expected to suppress the demand in January, but the expected cathode production scheduling in January has been revised upwards, and the actual demand is better than expected [3]. - Inventory side: The previous continuous destocking of lithium carbonate has ended, and there was a shift from destocking to stockpiling last week. As of January 9, the social inventory was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 337 tons. The slight inventory accumulation is in line with the logic of the phased decline in demand, and the downstream inventory replenishment demand still exists, with limited impact on prices [3]. Summary and Strategy - Although the inventory of lithium carbonate has slightly accumulated, short - term demand is still resilient. The expectation of pre - export by downstream enterprises before the adjustment of the export tax rebate, concerns about overseas resource fluctuations, and the increase in capital risk appetite support the price of lithium. The long - term demand expectation is also optimistic [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in the stock price of CATL (宁德时代), which fell over 4% to 477.2 HKD, with a trading volume of 675 million HKD [1] - Lithium carbonate prices have surged dramatically since early December, breaking through multiple price thresholds, reaching 156,060 RMB per ton, reflecting a rebound of over 150% from the low in June of the previous year [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a reduction in the export tax rebate rate for battery products from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and the complete cancellation of the rebate from January 1, 2027 [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities views the adjustment of the export tax rebate as a staggered reduction, providing a buffer period for the lithium battery industry, anticipating two rounds of export rush before the rebate changes take effect [1] - The reduction in export tax rebate rates is expected to elevate the overseas prices of corresponding products, benefiting companies with existing overseas production capacity and potentially enhancing their profitability [1] - The article emphasizes a positive outlook for leading battery manufacturers with established overseas production capabilities in light of the anticipated price increases [1]

川观新闻记者 彭瑀珩 来源：川观新闻 【未经授权，严禁转载！联系电话028-86968276】 1月12日，国内商品期货市场开盘迎来强势表现，碳酸锂主力合约直接封死涨停，涨幅9%，报156060 元/吨，两年来首次突破15万元关口。市场观点认为，这一行情与出口退税政策调整引发的下游抢装需 求密切相关。 | 碳酸锂2605 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ic2605 | | | | | | 高 156060 振幅 2.84% 156060 152000 | 昨结 143180 | | 量 65780 持仓 50.88万 | | | 12880 9.00% 开 156060 | 今结 | | 日增 -2076 | | | 相关ETF(?) | 有色ETF大成 2.120 1.63% | | | | | 同在顺 异动解读:取消出口退税,一季度抢出 ... ● × | | | | | | 博诺 | | | | | | 日 日 K 周K 月K 五日 更多 ▼ 分时 | | | | (0) | | 均价:156034 最新:156060 12880 +9% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The adjustment of China's export tax - rebate policy will likely lead to a phased rush of container shipments before April 1, 2026, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts, and the market may show a positive arbitrage logic [4][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event Background - On January 8, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced an adjustment to the export tax - rebate policy for products such as photovoltaics. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products will be cancelled; for battery products, the VAT export tax - rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6% from April 1, 2026, and cancelled from January 1, 2027 [2] Impact Assessment - **Product Scope**: Affected products include photovoltaic and battery - related products, as well as chemical raw materials and products, plastic PVC and polymers, kitchenware, ceramic products, silicone, cement, glass products, etc [3][9] - **Export Situation**: From January to November, China's photovoltaic module export volume was 227GW, with 81.7GW exported to Europe, accounting for 35.96%. China's battery export volume was 98.7GW, a year - on - year increase of 84.8%, and nearly 90% was exported to non - European and American countries [4][9] - **Shipping Impact**: Most affected products are transported by containers. Routes to Europe, the Middle East, South America, and India - Pakistan may be more affected. Before April 1, a phased rush of container shipments is expected, which is favorable for near - month contracts and unfavorable for far - month contracts [4][20]