加拿大央行行长麦克勒姆：政策利率维持在2.75%是"明确共识"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Allianz Global Investors suggests that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to provide strong policy guidance in its upcoming meeting, maintaining a flexible communication approach [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook** - The Bank of Japan is expected to keep its policy interest rate unchanged while avoiding the impression of a completely stagnant policy [1] - **Market Focus** - Attention will be on Governor Kazuo Ueda's assessment of the changing risk environment [1] - **External Factors** - The US-Japan trade agreement has alleviated a key source of external uncertainty, but domestic political risks in Japan have increased [1] - **Global Economic Concerns** - There are ongoing worries regarding global economic growth, as only a few countries have finalized trade agreements [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current policy interest rate during the July meeting while remaining on a path towards potential rate hikes [1] Economic Outlook - The upcoming quarterly economic outlook report may provide insights into how the Bank of Japan assesses the potential pressures on economic growth from recent tariff agreements [1] - The focus will be on the evaluation of the current risk environment by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Political Environment - The completion of the US-Japan trade agreement has removed a significant external uncertainty [1] - Domestic political risks have increased significantly due to the ruling coalition led by the Liberal Democratic Party losing its majority in the House of Councillors, along with rising speculation about Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba potentially resigning [1] Communication Strategy - Allianz Investment anticipates that the Bank of Japan will maintain flexibility in its communication to avoid providing clear policy guidance, while also trying to prevent the market from perceiving it as completely "staying put" [1]

Report Overview - **Report Name**: Baocheng Futures Treasury Bond Futures Morning Report (July 29, 2025) - **Report Type**: Futures Research Report - **Report Author**: Long Aoming - **Author Department**: Baocheng Futures Investment Consulting Department - **Author Qualification**: F3035632 (从业资格证号), Z0014648 (投资咨询证号) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2509 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias". The overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. - For the main varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is "oscillation with a weak bias", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **TL2509**: Short - term: oscillation; Medium - term: oscillation; Intraday: oscillation with a weak bias; Overall view: oscillation. Core logic: The monetary policy environment is biased towards looseness, but the possibility of short - term interest rate cuts is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Varieties**: TL, T, TF, TS. - **Intraday view**: Oscillation with a weak bias; **Medium - term view**: Oscillation; **Reference view**: Oscillation. - **Core logic**: Treasury bond futures oscillated and rose yesterday. Previously, due to the easing of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid rise in stock market risk appetite, the demand for treasury bonds was weak, and treasury bond futures were in an oscillatory adjustment. As market interest rates rose rapidly, the anchoring effect of policy rates emerged, and the upward space for treasury bond yields was limited. In the long - term, a loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts, so the long - term upward basis for treasury bond futures is relatively solid. In the short - term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and treasury bond futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory consolidation trend [5].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated weakly. The central bank shifted from net liquidity withdrawal to net injection through reverse repurchase and MLF operations, injecting 801.8 billion yuan of net liquidity. However, due to the overall mitigation of domestic and foreign risk factors and the rapid increase in the stock market's risk appetite, the demand for Treasury bonds was weak, and the Treasury bond yields remained high. Considering the anchoring effect of policy interest rates, the room for further upward movement of Treasury bond yields is small. In the medium to long term, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. The medium - to long - term upward foundation for Treasury bond futures remains solid. In the short term, the possibility of interest rate cuts is low, and Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Industry News - On July 24, the People's Bank of China announced that to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 25, 2025 (Friday), it would conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations through a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid method. On July 25, the central bank announced that it carried out 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate and quantity tender, with both the bid volume and winning bid volume being 789.3 billion yuan and the operating interest rate at 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC economists predict that the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the policy interest rate unchanged in the upcoming meeting, marking the fifth consecutive pause in rate hikes [1] Group 1 - HSBC's Ryan Wang notes that there are differing views among policymakers regarding the recent policy path ahead of the meeting [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller has expressed support for a rate cut in July, indicating potential dissent among officials in the upcoming decision [1] - Chairman Powell may face questions regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve during the meeting [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, all treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. This week, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net withdrawal of liquidity, tightening the loose state of market liquidity and causing market interest rates to rise. Since July, due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations and positive macro - economic expectations, market interest rates have gradually increased. However, considering the anchoring effect of policy rates, the room for further upward movement of market interest rates is limited. On the other hand, the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand still exists, and a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed to support the economy in the second half of the year, so there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts. But the LPR remained unchanged in July, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low. In general, treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Industry News and Related Charts - On July 24, 2025, the central bank announced that on July 25, it will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations in a fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bid manner. - On July 24, 2025, the central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an operating interest rate of 1.40% [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey will determine its policy interest rate based on actual inflation and expected inflation [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Monetary Policy** - The Central Bank emphasizes a data-driven approach to setting interest rates, focusing on both current and anticipated inflation levels [1]

Group 1 - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him a "dummy" for maintaining high interest rates, which he believes are detrimental to the economy [2] - Trump stated that Powell will leave his position in eight months, specifically by mid-March, although it is unclear why this timeframe was chosen [2] - Economists warned that efforts to push the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy could backfire, potentially leading to rising inflation expectations [2] Group 2 - Trump emphasized that the economy is strong, but high interest rates are making housing unaffordable for many [3] - Despite the Federal Reserve lowering policy rates by 1 percentage point last year, mortgage rates have increased, following the rise in U.S. Treasury yields [3] - Concerns were raised about the Federal Reserve's mission being misaligned, with criticism directed at the spending on new buildings and renovations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]