值得一提的是，伴随着生猪养殖业务逐步走向稳健发展状态，海外饲料业务有望成为新希望发力的下一 个增长点。 新希望财务总监史涵在本次业绩说明会上表示，公司看好海外饲料业务的发展，未来海外饲料业务将成 为其业务增长的"第三极"。公司从去年下半年开始通过一系列规划，计划未来3年至5年对海外有300万 从今年一季度来看，大部分A股生猪养殖领域公司的净利润实现盈利，同比显著提升。中关村物联网产 业联盟副秘书长袁帅认为，2025年，生猪养殖行业整体发展趋势呈现出积极态势。 "一方面，猪肉的市场需求有望保持稳定增长，另一方面，行业规模化、一体化进程的加速推进，将进 一步提升生猪养殖的效率和竞争力。与此同时，行业面临着猪价波动、饲料原材料价格上涨以及动物疫 病防控等因素带来的挑战。因此，生猪养殖企业还需要密切关注市场动态，加强风险管理，通过技术创 新和成本控制来应对市场变化，以实现可持续发展。"袁帅说道。 从新希望的经营状况来看，公司在一季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为4.45亿元，这是公司近三 年来首次一季度盈利。其中，饲料业务表现亮眼，生猪业务在成本改善和猪价相对稳定的情况下，也实 现了一定程度盈利。 新希望相关负责人 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly. In the short - term, both supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state. The price may continue to be under pressure, but continuous price drops may cause farmers' reluctance to sell, hindering the decline. It is recommended that short positions be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, and hold them with a light position while setting stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of live pigs first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers' slaughter increased slightly, with stable slaughter weight. The risk of second - fattening increased, and the mid - term supply pressure is expected to rise. On the demand side, terminal demand declined, but there may be a short - term increase in demand due to Dragon Boat Festival stocking. Overall, short - term supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, in a slightly loose balance state [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short positions can be appropriately closed at low prices to realize profits, hold them with a light position, and set stop - losses [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - **Price Trend**: Futures prices first rose and then fell, with the main contract dropping 1.90% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: The net short position decreased, and there were 696 futures warehouse receipts, 9 less than last week [12][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The base difference of the May live pig contract was 570 yuan/ton, and that of the September contract was 1240 yuan/ton [20]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 14.83 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from last week and 0.80% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 40.69 yuan/kg, down 0.21 yuan/kg from last week and 0.51% from last month [27]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: The national average price of pork was 25.99 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows was 32.53 yuan/kg, up 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [31]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of the week of April 23, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.68, down 0.03 from the previous week [35]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream Situation - **Sow Inventory**: In March 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 40.39 million, 270,000 less than last month. In April, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms increased slightly by 0.36% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 1.61% month - on - month [40]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million. In April, the live pig inventory in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.10% month - on - month, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.91% month - on - month [43]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In April, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased by 4.46% month - on - month, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 4.09% month - on - month. The average slaughter weight of live pigs remained unchanged from last week [46]. 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profits**: As of May 16, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was 48.2 yuan/head, down 10.26 yuan/head from last week; the profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 80.66 yuan/head, down 3.67 yuan/head from last week. The poultry farming profit was - 0.16 yuan/head, with a reduced loss of 0.14 yuan/head week - on - week [51]. 3.3.3. Domestic Situation - **Pork Imports**: From January to March 2025, China imported 280,000 tons of pork, a year - on - year increase of 7.69%, but at a historically low level [56]. 3.3.4. Substitute Situation - **White - striped Chicken Price and Fat - to - Standard Price Difference**: As of the week of May 16, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of May 8, the national average fat - to - standard price difference of live pigs was 0.03 yuan/kg, the same as last week [60]. 3.3.5. Feed Situation - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of May 16, the spot price of soybean meal was 3115.71 yuan/ton, down 196.58 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, up 11.37 yuan/ton from the previous week [65]. - **Feed Index and Price**: As of May 16, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 937.19, down 1.36% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.37 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [68]. - **Feed Output**: As of March 2025, the monthly feed output was 27.772 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.428 million tons [72]. 3.3.6. CPI Situation - As of April 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the same decline rate as last month [75]. 3.3.7. Downstream Situation - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 20th week, the slaughtering enterprise's开工 rate was 28.11%, down 0.43 percentage points from last week. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage capacity of key domestic slaughtering enterprises was 17.28%, up 0.01% from last week [78]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of March 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 30.63 million, up 40.7% from last month. In March 2025, the national catering revenue was 423.55 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [83]. 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [84].

销售均价：重点上市猪企四月商品猪销售均价环比小幅上涨 重点上市猪企四月生猪出栏量同比+37.2% 13家重点上市猪企中，12家出栏量同比为正值，其中正邦科技(+236.0%)、正虹科技(+111.3%)同比增幅 超100%，增幅较大;仅京基智农(-2.8%)同比出栏量小幅下降。由于牧原股份出栏量占比较大，剔除其影 响后，剩余12家重点猪企4月出栏量同比+27.4%。牧原股份4月商品猪出栏量在24年大基数之上，同比 再增长51.8%。 出栏体重：该行测算，重点猪企四月生猪出栏均重环比约+0.6% 4月，8家重点上市猪企生猪出栏均重约124.7kg/头，高位环比持续增长。其中，仅金新农(-2.1%)、温氏 股份(-1.0%)出栏均重小幅下调，重点猪企出栏均重基本在120kg以上。该行认为，受标肥价差影响，上 市猪企为优化头均盈利水平，普遍采取增重出栏措施，后续压栏情绪或随价差收窄有所减弱。 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，4月重点上市猪企整体出栏量环比小幅下降，变动值在正常 生产经营调整范围内。该行测算，重点猪企四月生猪出栏均重环比约+0.6%。重点上市猪企四月商品猪 销售均价环比小幅上涨生猪板块在低猪价 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【生猪日报】出栏方面稳定 价格窄幅震荡 | 生猪价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 今 日 | | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.11 | 0.00 | 山 西 | 14.84 | 14.84 | 0 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.65 | -0.04 | 辽 宁 | 14.61 | 14.61 | 0 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.23 | -0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.54 | 14.54 | 0 | | 湖南（100） | 14.35 | 14.35 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.41 | 0 | | （-200） | 四川 14.57 | 14.57 | 0.00 | 福 建 | 14.92 | 14.92 | 0 | ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 生猪日报 2025 年 5 月 12 日 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | | | | | 生猪价格日报 | | 2025/5/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 变 化 | | 河南（0） | 15.11 | 15.06 | 0.05 | 山 西 | 14.89 | 14.85 | 0.04 | | 湖北（0） | 14.61 | 14.53 | 0.08 | 辽 宁 | 14.58 | 14.54 | 0.04 | | 安徽（300） | 15.19 | 15.15 | 0.04 | 吉 林 | 14.51 | 14.42 | 0.09 | | 湖南（100） | 14.53 | 14.53 | 0.00 | 黑龙江 | 14.41 | 14.37 ...

【生猪周报】供应端整体稳定 猪价震荡运行 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 第二章 内容提纲 3 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 近期期货盘面整体以小幅震荡为主，由于前期盘面对于后续现货下跌已经有所反应，因此近期供应方面的逐步恢复反应有 限，加之实际现货价格仍然维持坚挺。需要注意的是，当前生猪出栏增幅可能相对有限，如果价格持续没有看到下跌，不 排除期货盘面可能有所反弹。但当前供应宽松特点仍在逐步体现，重点关注后续市场出栏节奏变化。 交易策略 单边：远月合约继续以高点抛空为主 套利：LH79反套 期权：卖出宽跨式策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 1.综合分析&交易策略 ◼ 综合分析 本周全国各地生猪价格继续呈现震荡运行态势，其中规模企业以及普通养殖户出栏动力有所放缓，规模企业在此前一个月 中出栏完成情况良好，同时本月出栏计划没有明显上调，因此出栏节奏仍然相对比较一般，而普通养殖户对于价格仍然比 较乐观，因此基本出栏也整体稳定，出栏节奏相对比较一般。二次育肥近期开始有少量出栏的情况，但 ...

公司披露2025 年一季度报告，第一季度实现营收360.61 亿元，同比增长37.26%；归母净利润44.91 亿 元，同比扭亏为盈。 2025Q1 公司销售商品猪1839.5 万头(同比+20.17%),商品猪销售均价14.53 元/公斤（同比+3.49%）。销售 仔猪414.9 万头（同比+594.97%），种猪11.3 万头（同比+5.61%）。截至2025 年3 月末，公司能繁母猪 存栏为348.5 万头。一季度销售量增明显，仔猪销量增加显著。屠宰业务方面，随公司屠宰量提升以及 管理精进，屠宰业务经营情况逐步好转。展望全年，我们认为公司出栏目标有望达成，养殖成本或进一 步下降，屠宰业务向好发展。 龙头优势显著，维持"买入"评级 考虑2025 年猪价或低于2024 全年，我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为1434.91/1497.96/1961.42 亿元，同比分别+4.02%/+4.39%/+30.94%，归母净利润分别为180.70/168.61/249.11 亿元，同比分别 +1.06%/-6.69%/+47.74%，EPS 分别为3.31/3.09/4.56 元/股。公司为行业龙头 ...

考虑2025 年猪价或低于2024 全年,我们预计公司2025-2027 年营业收入分别为72.67/89.36/108.63 亿元,同 比分别+19.55%/+22.98%/+21.57%,归母净利润分别为4.81/7.82/11.12 亿元,同比分 别-7.33%/+62.76%/+42.18% ,EPS 分别为0.94/1.53/2.18 元/股。公司出栏增速较高且成本水平偏低,维 持"买入"评级。 风险提示:发生疫病的风险,生猪价格长期处于低位的风险,原材料价格波动的风险。 生猪出栏高增,板块实现较好盈利 2025Q1 公司销售生猪83.30 万头(同比+63%),其中销售商品猪81.66 万头,商品猪销售均价15.00 元/公斤。 受益于猪价同比回升,以及公司成本持续下降,公司该板块实现较好盈利。展望全年,我们认为公司2025 全 年出栏目标有望达成,板块有望维持较好利润。 出栏有望加速,维持"买入"评级 事件 公司披露2025 年一季度报告,第一季度实现营收16.45 亿元,同比增长73.45%;归母净利润1.30 亿元,同比扭 亏为盈。 猪价同比回升叠加成本改善,利润率同比提升2025Q1 公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [5][30]. Core Views - The company achieved a turnaround in net profit for 2024, benefiting from rising pig prices and improved breeding costs, with a revenue of 7.045 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.09%, and a net profit of 39.32 million yuan, compared to a loss in the previous year [1][8]. - The company has expanded its breeding capabilities through the acquisition of Tianxin Breeding, enhancing its core competitiveness in pig breeding and extending its operations across the entire pig industry chain [2][30]. - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in pig output, with a forecasted output of approximately 4.9 million heads in 2025, 5.5 million in 2026, and 5.9 million in 2027 [21][30]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 7,045 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.1%, and a net profit of 39 million yuan [4][29]. - The company’s operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 857 million yuan, accounting for 12.16% of total revenue [17]. - The company’s total assets were reported at 12,358 million yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 74% [31]. Business Segmentation - The pig breeding business is projected to generate revenues of 5.382 billion yuan in 2024, with a gross margin of 9.8% [27]. - The slaughtering and cold storage business is expected to contribute 686 million yuan in revenue for 2024, with a gross margin of 3.8% [24]. - The frozen meat business is forecasted to generate 321 million yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross margin of 0.8% [24]. Future Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.892 billion yuan in 2025, 8.547 billion yuan in 2026, and 8.775 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 36 million yuan, 35 million yuan, and 17 million yuan respectively [29][30]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 0.03 yuan, 0.03 yuan, and 0.01 yuan respectively [30].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 10 年 月 日 海大集团（002311.SZ） 公司发布 2025 年第一季度业绩预告，预计 2025 年第一季度实现归母净 利润 12-13 亿元，同比增长 39.42%-51.04%，扣非净利润 12-13 亿元， 同比增长 57.96%-71.13%，一季度业绩超预期。 业绩表现亮眼，饲料主业销量实现较好增长。一季度公司饲料外销量约 595 万吨，同比增长约 25%，同时公司积极开拓海外市场，通过在越南、 印尼、厄瓜多尔、埃及等目标市场当地建厂，海外业务不断取得进展。展 望未来，公司将坚定不移向短期 2025 年 300 万吨外销增量、中期 2030 年有望达到 5150 万吨，目标清晰，可兑现度高。 生猪利润超预期，养殖业务稳健推进。专业能力持续提升，公司摸索并推 行"外购仔猪公司+家庭农场、锁定利润、对冲风险"的运营模式，生猪 套保业务实现良好利润。在生猪养殖成本逐步下降下，2025 年全年公司 生猪养殖业务有望实现较好利润。 另外，公司饲料行业受关税政策对产业影响较少。近年来，饲料行业供应 链条安全、可控，原材料玉米以国内自产 ...