第一性原理

Search documents
马斯克,活该成功!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-10 14:23
内容来源:本文转载自微信公众号 混沌学园,笔记侠经授权转载。转载请联系原公众号授权。 分享嘉宾:李善友 ,混沌创办人。 责编| 柒 排版| 沐言 第 8951篇深度好文:11286| 25分钟阅读 商业思维 笔记君说: "地球上所有的生命都将被太阳摧毁!" 马斯克,这位科技与商业领域的传奇人物,又对世界发出了警告。 为什么他总想把人类送上火星? 做特斯拉、SpaceX,他的创业动机究竟是什么? 为什么他不会因为接连的失败而内耗? 今天这篇文章,我们就来深度分析马斯克创业背后的使命和精神力量,帮助创业者找回使命,重新点燃内心的力量。 一、马斯克的创业史 今天,我想通过讲案例的方式,让理念的力量与大家共鸣,这个案例大家特别熟悉,是马斯克的SpaceX项目。 在讲这个案例之前,先简单回顾一下马斯克的创业史,可谓英雄之旅。 ① 1984年:马斯克13岁,第一次创业,写了一个游戏程序—Blaster,卖给了一家杂志社后,赚了500美金。 ② 1995年:马斯克24岁,第二次创业,创立地图导航网站Zip 2,公司成立董事会后被排挤出局,赚了2200万美元。 如果一个人的心灵世界比商业世界小,我们就会被金钱、技术所努役、工 ...
李善友:马斯克们永远不会与怯懦灵魂为伍,那些人不懂胜利更不懂失败
混沌学园· 2025-04-28 07:37
2025年4月26日,2025年李善友开年大课暨混沌·AI创新院开学典礼仍在继续。 Day2的主题是"人类的尊严",在上午大课中,教授真诚说道: 人之为人最后的尊严 ,是人拥有真理念。 以下是李善友教授大课的笔记内容。 讲者 |李善友 昨天,我们追问了一个问题: AI时代,人之为人不能被AI夺走的那一点点是什么?那是人之为人最后的尊严。 如果想不清楚这个问题,很可能我们会被AI合并同类项。 今天,我想追问一个更积极的问题:AI时代,人类比AI多一点点的那个东西是什么?我们强过AI、高于AI的是什么? 我想只有一样东西: 只有在心流中,人的智性超越理性智商,也超越AI智能。在心流中的真理念焕发出来的时候,我们会热爱。这时候,我们可以反过来调用 AI去实现我们的理想。 当真理念焕发出来的时候,我们会真热爱。这时候,我们可以反过来调用AI去实现我们的理想。 这正是今天我要跟大家分享的—— 理念的力量 马斯克的创业史 我想通过讲案例的方式,让理念的力量与大家共鸣,这个案例大家特别熟悉,是马斯克的SpaceX项目,一个伟大的案例。 在讲这个案例之前,我们先简单回顾一下马斯克的创业史,可谓英雄之旅。 马斯克的创业动机是什 ...
哪一种人能当一把手?看任正非就懂了:必须是能提纲挈领的明白人
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 07:34
大海航行靠舵手,从古至今,凡是能够带队伍打胜仗的人必须是有极高要求的,否则队伍就散了。 比如你去创业做老板,你需要告诉员工朝哪个方向努力才是正确的,这就像是打粮食,能够有收益才能持续。否则员工看跟着你既没有成就感,也没有前 途,他们就会"良禽择木而栖"。 打胜仗是最好的团建,也是树立老板权威和提升员工对公司归属感的最好方式。 所以做老板是有压力的,不仅仅是因为你有钱。事实上,如果下属和员工打心底觉得你不行,那他们哪怕从你这里领很高的薪水,他们也不会尊重你。 这样的上下级关系就很麻烦,不是什么人都能当一把手的。 哪一种人能当一把手?看任正非就懂了:必须是能提纲挈领的明白人 首先看任正非是如何看管理干部选拔的,"我们把权力下放给最明白、最有责任心的人,让他们对流程进行例行管理。" 注意这两个条件,什么叫"最明白",就是说心里有数,这个人必须对要做的工作非常懂,既知其然又知其所以然。因此,我们就能理解"让听得到炮声的人 呼叫炮火"的内涵了。 不管是任正非还是其他老板,都不会喜欢那种"以其昏昏使人昭昭"的管理者。 什么叫"最有责任心"?就是说这个事不仅仅是要做完,还要做好,对工作有责任感,这样的管理干部才能让下面的人 ...
刘煜辉最新发声再谈“东升西落”:珍惜每一次激烈博弈和碰撞中,中国核心资产“倒车接人”的机会
聪明投资者· 2025-04-20 14:34
"从逻辑上推演,我坚定相信,只有'东升西落',中或最赢,没有其他结果。 " "美联储代表的是犹太资本和金融资本利益,而犹太金融资本在西方意识形态中一定占据左翼,而不是 右翼。 所以,在左右翼资深对决的时代背景下,去看在美元资产遭到巨大抛售、美元信用受到危机时,美联储 仍然采取袖手旁观的态度,是可以理解的。" " 中国 未来的 方略主要有几点 :更加开放,更加平衡,更加市场化。" 以上是中国首席经济学家论坛理事 刘煜辉 在今 天(4月20日)宁波银行私人银行投资策略会中分享的 最新观点。 对于所有事件的分析,都要结合背景回到最底层的目标,去解构其行为逻辑。 刘煜辉用了近两个小时,将特朗普发动的这场仅仅一个星期就已经"到顶"的关税战进行了详细梳理。 从大背景来看,刘煜辉表示这是美西方一场史无前例的"党争"。 特朗普作为西方政治规则下的政治人物,其真实有效的政治时间可能只有一年半,因此, 他的第一性 目标是通过"关税战"向选票基本盘展现承诺,以及巩固权力,并在中选前证明他所代表的右翼势力在美 国权力系统中已经站稳脚跟。 但是,刘煜辉强调,真正决定社会走向的是其背后的资本意志。 因此,从第一性原理角度出发,最终还是要 ...
500Wh/kg电池竞速:锂金属电池挑战全固态共识?(下)
高工锂电· 2025-04-05 10:56
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the competition between lithium metal batteries and sulfide solid-state batteries, highlighting the rapid advancements in lithium metal technology, particularly in electric aviation, while addressing the challenges faced by solid-state routes [1]. Summary by Sections Challenges and Solutions - Lithium metal batteries must overcome two main challenges: safety issues due to dendrite formation during charging, and cycle life challenges caused by irreversible side reactions between lithium metal and electrolyte [2]. - Dendrite growth can lead to internal short circuits and thermal runaway, while side reactions consume active lithium and electrolyte, resulting in rapid capacity decay [2]. Technical Strategies - The industry has explored three main strategies to address dendrite issues: 1. **Electrolyte Design**: This includes developing high-concentration or locally concentrated liquid electrolytes and solid electrolyte solutions [3]. 2. **Structured Lithium Metal Anodes**: Creating a three-dimensional conductive framework for lithium to guide uniform deposition, though this requires advanced material preparation and welding techniques [6]. 3. **Protective Layers**: Adding stable interfaces on lithium metal surfaces to enhance stability, although these layers may degrade over time [6]. Manufacturing Challenges - The soft and sticky nature of lithium metal poses significant challenges for traditional battery manufacturing processes, particularly in producing ultra-thin lithium foils [8]. - Current industrial rolling techniques can only process lithium foils thicker than 50 μm, making it difficult to achieve the desired thinness without breakage [9]. Industry Innovations - Companies like Ganfeng Lithium have achieved breakthroughs in mass production of ultra-thin lithium foils, capable of widths up to 300 mm and thicknesses down to 3 microns, indicating a move towards scalable and customized solutions [10]. - Various innovative manufacturing methods are being explored, including vapor deposition techniques that can produce high-quality lithium films [11]. Emerging Concepts - The concept of "anodeless" batteries is gaining traction, with companies like QuantumScape leading the way. This design aims to reduce lithium usage and costs while maximizing energy density [12]. - QuantumScape claims its anodeless solid-state battery can achieve over 1000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining 95% capacity [13]. Market Dynamics - The demand for high energy density solutions, particularly in emerging fields like eVTOL, is driving the rapid development of lithium metal batteries, which may not align with the traditional solid-state roadmap [16]. - The industry's focus on sulfide solid electrolytes may create a path dependency that underestimates the potential of advanced liquid electrolytes and innovative designs like "anodeless" batteries [16]. Historical Context - Lithium metal batteries are experiencing a renaissance, building on advancements in materials science and manufacturing processes that address historical challenges of safety and cycle life [18]. - The evolution of lithium metal battery technology reflects a non-linear progression, with current developments rooted in historical research dating back to the 1970s [17].
总有人觉得VC不配谈真问题 |Findme
投中网· 2025-04-04 06:36
东四十条资本 . 聚焦股权投资行业人物、事件、数据、研究、政策解读,提供专业视角和深度洞见 | 创投圈有趣的灵魂 将投中网设为"星标⭐",第一时间收获最新推送 以下文章来源于东四十条资本 ,作者董师傅 价值观哪去了? 作者丨董师傅 来源丨东四十条资本 各位好,findme更新一期。刚才看见傅盛发视频支持朱啸虎,推荐大家看看,里边有几句话讲得挺好的,就是机器人公司把"做人形","具身智能"当成 任务了,不做就混不下去,但实际的场景,没有人做啊,连瓶水都拿不稳,估值炒这么高,有啥好处呢? 我忽然想起来去年投中年会他俩那个panel,结束的时候我说明年甭管混得好是不好,两位都回来坐坐,咱再聊一期,他俩也答应了,但眼看4.16号今年 大会要开了,阴差阳错可能凑不成局,可惜了的。 但这话题远远没完。我今天再谈它,主要是觉得,"人形机器人的泡沫"它是"真问题",就是跟所谓"假问题"相对的"真问题",从商业价值还是公共价值 上,它都值得大谈特谈,但很多人基于社会角色,认为VC不配谈这种问题。 你看投中网评论区就知道了。遍地是喷子,有一个很蠢的说法,就是认为朱啸虎是做投资的,即便你笃定你说的是真话,你也没权利说。这话非常操 ...
“黄仁勋最信赖的作者”深度交流:英伟达传奇背后以及AI的下一步
聪明投资者· 2025-04-02 03:23
Core Insights - The article discusses the rise of Nvidia as a leading company in the AI sector, driven by its CEO Jensen Huang's visionary leadership and innovative strategies [1][7][17] - It highlights Huang's unique ability to attract top talent and his commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology [2][3][57] Group 1: Jensen Huang's Leadership and Vision - Huang is portrayed as a technical genius with a passion for computer technology, which has driven Nvidia's advancements from 3D graphics to AI [2][3] - His leadership style involves inspiring employees with a vision of technological dreams rather than just financial incentives, fostering loyalty even during tough times [3][57] - Huang's approach to management includes setting ambitious goals and encouraging a culture of tackling complex challenges, which has been crucial for Nvidia's success [13][20] Group 2: Nvidia's Technological Innovations - Nvidia's success is attributed to the unexpected combination of neural networks and parallel computing, which were previously considered failures [8][10] - The development of the CUDA platform allowed Nvidia to transform its graphics cards into powerful computing tools for scientists, leading to significant advancements in AI [11][12] - Huang's decision to pivot Nvidia from a graphics company to an AI company in 2014 was a pivotal moment that positioned the company as a leader in the AI field [16][17] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Nvidia currently holds over 90% of the AI hardware market, reflecting its dominance in the sector [18] - The company is investing in the "Omni-verse" project, which aims to create a massive simulation environment for training robots, indicating its forward-looking strategy [66][68] - The energy demands of AI technologies pose a significant challenge, with predictions that data centers could consume 15% of the U.S. electricity by 2028, highlighting the need for investment in energy infrastructure [70][72] Group 4: Lessons from Huang's Experience - Huang's concept of "zero billion markets" emphasizes investing in unproven markets to reduce competition and build unique platforms [19] - The "light-speed" management philosophy encourages rapid product development, allowing Nvidia to outpace competitors [20][21] - Huang's focus on first principles thinking drives Nvidia's decisions, ensuring the company remains at the forefront of technological advancements [22][23] Group 5: The Future of AI and Investment Opportunities - The article discusses the dual perspectives on AI's future, with some viewing it as a transformative force for good, while others express concerns about potential risks [59][60] - The ongoing investment in AI technologies is seen as critical, with the next few years being crucial for demonstrating AI's value in everyday applications [63][64] - The energy supply challenges present an investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the AI theme in the coming years [73]
混沌创新院25级开启|“AI时代的EMBA”
混沌学园· 2025-03-28 12:47
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the transformative power of AI as a foundational element for future prosperity, urging entrepreneurs to engage with this new era actively [2][3]. Group 1: Embracing AI Era - The transition from Web2 to the AI era is marked by unprecedented speed, with tools like ChatGPT achieving significant user milestones in a short time [2]. - Entrepreneurs are encouraged to connect with emerging technologies and trends to stay ahead in the AI landscape [2][3]. Group 2: Innovation Institute Overview - The Chaos Innovation Institute's 25th cohort offers a newly iterated curriculum focused on "AI × Innovation Methodology," aiming to equip business leaders with essential operational frameworks [5][6]. - The program includes six interactive modules designed to develop capabilities necessary for thriving in the AI era [6]. Group 3: Course Modules - The first module focuses on the first principles of human wisdom and AI, helping participants model their businesses amidst uncertainty [9]. - The second module addresses disruptive innovation, encouraging participants to identify core competencies and essential market needs [11]. - The third module explores opportunities for reconstructing industry paradigms using AI, emphasizing the analysis of value creation in typical industries [13]. Group 4: Community and Networking - The Chaos Innovation Institute has gathered over 2000 entrepreneurs and executives from diverse industries, fostering a collaborative environment for innovation [19][20]. - Alumni have successfully applied the institute's methodologies to create impactful businesses, demonstrating the effectiveness of the program [21][22]. Group 5: Target Audience - The program is tailored for individuals who have completed initial business validation and seek continuous growth, particularly founders, CEOs, and key decision-makers [23].
泥沙俱下,Manus被掩埋的价值
新财富· 2025-03-12 01:50
本文约4200字,推荐阅读时长15分钟,欢迎关注新财富公众号。 3月11日,Manus 官方正式宣布与阿里通义千问团队开展战略合作。由通义千问提供专属模型支持的 Manus 中文版本正在开发中… (由于没有邀请码测试 Ma n u s,本文侧重行业分析,体验归纳所选取的案例资料均来自于公开的测试回放) 1 创新的质疑 在 De e pSe e k 浪潮之后, "世界首个通用型AI Ag e n t "标签加持下的 Ma n u s ,注定要受到所有人的注目。 从自媒体争先恐后的"炸裂"、"上帝之手"般的吹捧,到"自嗨"、"饥饿营销"的千夫所指,Ma n u s在1 2个小时之内经历了从被吹上天到被锤到 地底的体验。 而这背后混杂的,是自媒体流量的争夺、投资人的FOMO(错失恐惧症)与普通用户对"一夜成神"故事的期待。 截至Ma n u s发布,海外AI巨头 An t h r o p i c 、Op e nAI 已经推出了Comp u t e r Us e 、Op e r a t o r这些垂类的AI通用Ag e n t,在代码垂类领域也有 De v i n AI 编程 Ag e n t 这样的产品,国内智谱也 ...
中泰资管天团 | 王路遥:投研人员的DeepSeek打开方式
中泰证券资管· 2025-03-06 08:58
Core Viewpoint - DeepSeek-R1 has achieved performance comparable to OpenAI's O1 model, indicating significant advancements in AI capabilities and its integration into everyday life, with over 1.1 billion app downloads and nearly 97 million weekly active users [1][6]. Group 1: Problem-Solving Approach - The initial step in problem-solving is redefining complex issues into clear, actionable sub-questions, which can be facilitated by DeepSeek's ability to break down problems into manageable parts [2][3]. - DeepSeek can help users generate a structured thought process, allowing for a more systematic approach to tackling complex problems, thus bridging the gap between broad questions and specific solutions [2][3]. Group 2: Question Formulation - Effective questioning is crucial; narrow and specific questions yield better responses from AI models. For instance, asking "What are the energy bureau's generator assembly targets?" is more effective than asking about broader industry trends [3][4]. - Users can leverage DeepSeek's contextual understanding to refine questions further, enhancing the depth of inquiry and leading to more insightful answers [3][4]. Group 3: AI as an Assistant - DeepSeek should be viewed as an assistant rather than a definitive source of truth, as it may generate inaccurate or misleading information, a phenomenon referred to as "hallucination" [4][5]. - The hallucination rate for DeepSeek-R1 is reported at 14.3%, highlighting the importance of verifying information and using the model for brainstorming and idea generation rather than for precise answers [5][6]. Group 4: Implications for Work and Life - The increasing integration of AI into daily tasks suggests that repetitive jobs will be increasingly automated, necessitating a shift towards independent thinking and judgment in professional settings [6][7]. - The ability to think critically and independently will become a key differentiator between human capabilities and AI, emphasizing the need for professionals to adapt to this evolving landscape [6][7].