财达期货｜股指期货周报 财达期货｜股指期货周报 2026-1-19 姓名：：李津文 从业资格号： F0244287 投资咨询号： Z0012495 震荡整理，量能充裕 研究员 行情回顾: 展望后市，融资保证金的调整并不影响市场震荡上行的大方 向，但会影响结构。主题板块博弈加剧，纯靠叙事和资金接力驱动 的单边趋势行情结束，业绩线索的权重重新开始上升。 上周四个股指期货品种走势以震荡整理为主，其中上证 50 和 沪深 300 的调整幅度相对较大。四个股指期货品种基差贴水深度有 所收窄，但大部分主力合约保持期货贴水模式。期指主力合约期货 -现货基差，IH 收于 4.64，IF 收于-8.67，IC 收于-22.27，IM 收 于-53.53。 上周 A 股市场走出震荡整理的行情，调整主要源于资金大量聚 集的商业航天、AI 应用短期涨幅过于巨大。交易所上调融资保证 金比例，较大程度上反映出监管层对市场上涨过快的降温意图。监 管措施有助于市场的长远平稳运行，同时也应看到，A 股市场成交 量创出历史最高纪录。即便指数有所回调，但充沛的市场流动性和 高涨的市场情绪下，对这种技术性回调并不值得忧虑。从商业航天、 AI 应用、 ...

Group 1 - OpenAI plans to test advertising in its free and Go subscription tiers in the coming weeks, marking a significant shift towards commercialization to enhance revenue from its popular chatbot [1] - CITIC Securities forecasts a high certainty in computing power development by 2026, with supernode technology reaching a pivotal opportunity, and an increase in competitiveness among domestic computing power manufacturers, suggesting investment opportunities in domestic computing chips and system-level manufacturers [1] - The rapid enhancement of model capabilities is expected to lead to a flourishing of AI applications, with a focus on office, coding, agent, and multimodal AI applications, alongside opportunities arising from overseas expansion and domestic policy support [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Media Index (399971) include Focus Media, Giant Network, BlueFocus, Yanshan Technology, Liou Co., Kaiying Network, Kunlun Wanwei, 37 Interactive Entertainment, Light Media, and Shenzhou Taiyue, collectively accounting for 51.52% of the index [2]

Summary of TSMC Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and its impact on the global AI computing sector, particularly in relation to semiconductor supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - TSMC expects Q4 2025 revenue to reach between $34.6 billion and $35.8 billion, with a gross margin guidance of 63% to 65%, exceeding market expectations primarily driven by AI demand [1][3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year-on-year increase of 30% to 40%, significantly higher than the market's prior expectation of $45 billion to $50 billion [1][4]. - The expansion of TSMC's CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) capacity is expected to alleviate supply constraints for North American chip designers like NVIDIA and Google, with capacity projected to increase to 1.3 to 1.4 million units in 2026 and potentially reach 2.4 million units in 2027 [1][6]. - NVIDIA plans to ship 7.5 million GPUs in 2026, while Google’s TPU shipments may reach between 4 million and 5 million units, supported by the expanded CoWoS capacity [1][7]. Implications for the Domestic Computing Industry - The growth in GPU and TPU shipments is anticipated to positively impact the domestic computing supply chain, with a strong investment opportunity in the domestic computing sector over the next one to two years [1][8]. - The release of new CoWoS capacity in the second half of 2026 is expected to sustain demand in the overall computing sector, leading to significant performance improvements for related companies [1][8]. Current Investment Focus - Investment priorities are concentrated in three main areas: optical modules, PCB (Printed Circuit Board), and liquid cooling technologies [1][9]. - For optical modules, demand is projected to rise to 55 million units of 800G and 32 million units of 1.6T in 2026, reflecting increased growth potential despite supply constraints [1][9]. - Recommended companies in the optical module sector include Eastcom, Newray, and Tianfu Communication [1][10]. - In the PCB sector, companies like Shenghong Technology and Jingwang Electronics are highlighted as key recommendations [1][10]. - The liquid cooling sector is identified as having strong growth potential, with core companies including Invec and others [1][10]. Notable Domestic Computing Chain Companies - The domestic computing chain is expected to benefit from global AI trends, with recommended companies including Canxin Technology, Chipone, and leading firms like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and Huahong Technology [1][11].

缺 CTE 布吗？20260116 摘要 AI 芯片需求激增导致高端波纤布（low CTE 布）需求大幅增加，挤压了 消费电子客户的供应，AI 和消费电子在 low CTE 布方面存在竞争。 2024 年中 Blackberry 架构对材料模组和 CTE 提出更高要求，2024 年 11 月 COWOS 封装供不应求，2025 年 3 月至 4 月台积电客户和苹果均 需要大量 CTE，2025 年 7 月至 8 月下游基板交付周期被拉长，CO-OP 工艺加剧 CD1 部件需求紧张。 全球仅三家可供应 AI 芯片方向所需的 CD1 部件，中大科技是其中之一。 英伟达争取日东纺供应，苹果评估其他供应商，顶级消费电子厂家与顶 级 AI 芯片厂家争夺产能。 台积电通过台玻公司的 NV 认证，使其成为第二供应链，部分缓解紧缺。 中材科技和宏和科技被认为能够生产 CD1 部件，可能成为未来补充全球 产业链的重要力量。 台积电将资本开支从 410 亿美元增加至 560 亿美元，表明其对未来产 能扩展持积极态度，短期内将推动整个算力相关板块的发展。 Q&A T 克拉斯（CTE）主要应用在哪些领域，为什么会出现供应紧缺？ T ...

截至2026年1月19日 10:02，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)上涨0.13%，成分股奥比中光上涨5.19%，北 京君正上涨3.36%，紫光股份上涨2.88%，芯原股份上涨2.49%，新易盛上涨2.09%。AI人工智能 ETF(512930)多空胶着，最新报价2.4元。 AI人工智能ETF(512930)，场外联接(平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接A：023384；平安中证人工 智能主题ETF发起式联接C：023385；平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接E：024610)。 消息面上，1月19日，特斯拉CEO埃隆·马斯克在社交平台上宣布，随着AI5芯片设计完成，公司将重启 超级计算机项目Dojo 3的开发工作。这距离2025年8月Dojo项目被全面叫停仅过去五个月。马斯克在帖 子中同步发布"招聘启事"，邀请对"研发世界上产量最高芯片"感兴趣的工程师加入，并要求应征者用三 个要点简述其解决过的关键技术难题。Dojo 3超级计算机项目的重启，是特斯拉在AI算力领域的战略回 归，将为其全自动驾驶（FSD）与人形机器人Optimus业务提供算力支撑。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以 ...

数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证人工智能主题指数(930713)前十大权重股分别为中际旭创、新易 盛、寒武纪、澜起科技、中科曙光、科大讯飞、海康威视、豪威集团、金山办公、浪潮信息，前十大权 重股合计占比58.08%。 AI人工智能ETF(512930)，场外联接(平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接A：023384；平安中证人工 智能主题ETF发起式联接C：023385；平安中证人工智能主题ETF发起式联接E：024610)。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认真阅读《基金合同》《招募说明书》等基金法律文件，全面认识本基金的 风险收益特征和产品特性，并根据 ...

国盛证券认为，光模块行业正处于高景气周期，AI算力需求持续爆发推动高端光模块需求快速增长，供给将成为核心矛盾。算力产业链高景气周期背景 下，光模块头部厂商在大陆和泰国加速扩产，预计光模块行业2026年一季度将迎来产能集中释放，驱动业绩进入新一轮爬坡期。* 3、产品力显著优于同类标的！截至1月16日，创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）规模达58.93亿元创新高，近6个月日均成交额近8亿元，规模、成交额在 跟踪创业板人工智能指数的8只ETF中高居第一！此外，港交所显示，159363正式纳入互联互通标的，1月19日正式生效，为北向资金配置优选，可进一步提 升其场内交易活跃度。 展望后市，当前AI发展从算力建设走向应用落地，一键布局"算力+AI应用"的创业板人工智能ETF（159363）及场外联接（A类023407、C类023408），更直 接受益于AI技术商业化爆发的增长红利。从赛道看，创业板人工智能约六成仓位布局算力（光模块为主），约四成仓位布局AI应用，不止是"算力"核心， 也是真正的"AI应用"代表。 周五（1月16日），创业板人工智能下跌2%回踩五日线，资金大举涌入！AI应用概念股全线回调，汉得信息、 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Henan's economy through innovation and industrial upgrades, showcasing the emergence of smart production lines and innovation factories as key drivers of high-quality economic development [3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Super Fusion, a computing power giant, has submitted its listing guidance to the Henan Securities Regulatory Bureau, marking a new milestone in the digital transformation of the region [4]. - The company occupies 182 acres with a building area of 270,000 square meters, creating over 3,000 high-end jobs and aiming for revenue to exceed 40 billion yuan by 2024 and 50 billion yuan by 2025 [4]. - Super Fusion has established 10 R&D centers and 6 supply centers globally, serving over 10,000 clients across more than 100 countries and regions [5]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The rise of Super Fusion aligns with Zhengzhou's strategic plan to become a leading computing power hub, aiming to build a dual-first city in supercomputing and intelligent computing [4]. - The company has achieved a market share of third place in the domestic market for liquid-cooled servers, demonstrating the strength of "Zhengzhou manufacturing" [5]. - Zhengzhou's electronic information industry saw a 24.6% year-on-year increase in added value in November 2025, significantly driven by Super Fusion's presence [5]. Group 3: Ecosystem Development - Super Fusion acts as a "chain master" in Henan's advanced computing industry, promoting a collaborative upgrade of the supply chain through a "technology + service + ecosystem" model [6]. - The establishment of the Zhongyuan Science and Technology City Innovation Alliance and the presence of 16 top universities' research institutes in Zhengzhou contribute to a robust innovation ecosystem [6]. - The company aims to empower various industries through its vision of building a smart era, enhancing its role in the global computing power landscape [6].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝周报 中长需求稳健增长，铝价只是阶段调整 20260118 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期现市场 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

Market Insights - The report indicates that the increase in financing margin ratios is gradually being digested by the market, with the impact nearing its end. The central bank's structural interest rate cuts are expected to boost policy expectations, and additional policies may be introduced following the release of macroeconomic data for 2025, which could enhance market risk appetite [3][4] - The upcoming release of 2025 macroeconomic data on January 19 is anticipated to show a significant decline in GDP growth for Q4 compared to Q3. This, combined with various policy measures, suggests an increased probability of a "good start" for Q1, which is likely to uplift market risk appetite [4][11] Industry Allocation - The report asserts that the acceleration in market trends has not ended, but the structure of the upward trend is shifting towards computing power. The previous leading sectors, such as military and AI applications, have seen declines, raising investor concerns about the end of the current market phase. However, the report suggests that the current market phase may still extend with potential acceleration in sectors related to computing power [5][20] - As of January 12, 2026, the electric equipment sector has not yet reached new highs, indicating that the growth style and six major growth industries have not simultaneously achieved new highs. The report highlights that the electric equipment index has room for approximately 3% growth to meet this condition [20][23] - The report identifies that the communication and electronic sectors, which were previously strong, may experience a rapid rebound, with potential upward space of no less than 10%. The report emphasizes that the current market conditions do not satisfy the "stronger gets stronger" characteristic, as the leading sectors have not maintained their strength [20][24] - The report also notes that the turnover rates for the growth style and the communication sector are approaching their respective highs, but the communication sector still has a significant gap to close. This suggests that the current market phase has not yet concluded, and a rapid increase in turnover rates may accompany a rebound in the communication sector [27][31] Key Investment Themes - The report suggests two main investment themes: 1. The AI industry chain, particularly in computing power (CPO/PCB), supporting components (fiber optics/liquid cooling/power equipment), and applications (robots/games/software), is expected to continue its upward trend. The report anticipates that applications may experience high volatility, while computing power is likely to see accelerated growth [32][33] 2. Areas supported by favorable market conditions or significant events, such as storage and energy storage chains, military industry, and machinery, are also highlighted. The storage sector is expected to benefit from supply disruptions and increased AI demand, while the military sector may gain from commercial aerospace and geopolitical events [33]