金属铜板块河钢资源、江西铜业等2连板。一图速览今日连板股>> 10月9日，Wind数据显示，A股市场共计100只个股涨停。其中固态电池概念股天际股份收获4连板，金 属铜板块河钢资源、江西铜业等2连板。一图速览今日连板股>> | 生板股 | 10.9 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 截至收盘斩获连板个股 | | 股票名称 | 连板大数 | 所属概念 | | 天际股份 | 4 | 固态电池 | | 山子高科 | 3 | 汽车整车 | | *ST东易 | 3 | 智能家居 | | 冠中生态 | 3 | 生态 | | *CL国际 | 2 | 算力 | | 深科技 | 2 | 存储芯片 | | 河钢资源 | 2 | 铜 | | 精艺股份 | 2 | 铜+储能 | | 江西铜业 | 2 | 铜+黄金 | | 盛中矿业 | 2 | 铜 | | 合锻智能 | 2 | 可控核聚变 | | | 能口加强 | 脱散点 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market characteristics of technology and non - ferrous metals in overseas markets during the National Day holiday are expected to continue in the A - share market after the holiday. In October, during the disclosure period of the third - quarter reports, attention should be paid to convertible bond opportunities in sub - sectors with performance realization, including optical modules, storage, lithium - battery, and non - ferrous metals sectors [1][10][15]. - In October, the convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 30% - 37%. On one hand, it is difficult for the valuation to break through the end - of - August high; on the other hand, the convertible bond valuation has support due to the upward - trending A - share market [2][16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 10 - month Convertible Bond Outlook: Valuation Range Fluctuation, Optimistic about Technology & Non - ferrous Metals - During the National Day holiday, there were continuous catalysts in the overseas AI chain. South Korea's two memory chip giants reached a preliminary supply agreement with OpenAI's Star Gate project, and AMD signed a chip supply agreement with OpenAI, which is expected to increase the company's annual revenue by tens of billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the "shutdown" of the US government pushed up the gold price, and COMEX gold broke through the $4000 mark [1][10]. - In October, attention should be paid to convertible bond opportunities in sub - sectors with performance realization, such as optical modules, storage, lithium - battery, and non - ferrous metals sectors. Specific individual bonds are recommended, including Jiayuan Convertible Bonds in the optical module sector, Tianci, Yiwei, Dianhua, and Guanyu Convertible Bonds in the lithium - battery sector, and Bo 23 Convertible Bonds in the non - ferrous metals sector [1][15]. - In October, the convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 30% - 37%. The end - of - August convertible bond valuation was relatively high, and it is difficult to break through this high in October, but there is support for the valuation due to the upward - trending A - share market [2][16]. 3.2 September Market Review 3.2.1 Equity Market - In September, the A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index once challenging the 3900 - point mark. The market trading was active, with an average daily trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 109.38 billion yuan compared to August. The growth and cyclical styles were dominant, while the financial and consumer styles performed poorly [20]. - The lithium - battery sector led the rise, and the non - ferrous metals sector also performed well. The military and large - financial sectors performed poorly [25]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market - In September, the convertible bond market showed a fluctuating trend. The monthly increase of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was +2.0%, underperforming the Wanquan A Index. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased compared to August, with an average daily trading volume of 79.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.52 billion yuan [28]. - In terms of industry performance, the convertible bonds of the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and automobile sectors led the rise. Individual bonds such as Jize, Guanzhong, and Huicheng Convertible Bonds led the increase, while Borei, Tianlu, and Tongguang Convertible Bonds led the decline [33]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - In September, the convertible bond valuation showed a range - fluctuating characteristic. The end - of - September 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market was 33.9%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points compared to the end of August, and was at a high percentile level since 2018 and 2021 [36]. - Different par values had corresponding conversion premium rates, which also increased compared to the end of August and were at high percentile levels [36]. 3.4 Convertible Bond Supply and Demand 3.4.1 Convertible Bond Supply - In September 2025, the issuance scale of convertible bonds increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Two new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 3.5 billion yuan [49]. - As of September 30, two convertible bonds waiting to be issued obtained regulatory approval, with a total scale of 5.479 billion yuan. Five public convertible bond board plans were added, with a total scale of 4.199 billion yuan [53][55]. 3.4.2 Convertible Bond Demand - The share of the Convertible Bond ETF decreased in September. As of September 30, the share decreased by 342 million units to 4.484 billion units, and the circulation scale decreased by 3.426 billion yuan to 60.573 billion yuan [57]. 3.5 Clause Tracking 3.5.1 Redemption - As of September 30, 16 convertible bonds were confirmed for forced redemption, 11 were not to be redeemed, and 10 might trigger forced redemption [61]. 3.5.2 Downward Revision - As of September 30, six convertible bonds were confirmed for downward revision, 20 announced no downward revision for the time being, five proposed downward revision (three of which had completed the downward revision), and 10 might trigger downward revision [62].

中兴通讯（000063.SZ） 优于大市 证券研究报告 | 2025年10月09日 致力于"成为网络连接和智能算力的领导者"，有望受益 AI 发展。（1）算 力方面：大模型持续迭代，AI 需求持续增长，全球各大 CSP 云厂均加大 AI 算力基础设施投入，预计 2025 年，海外亚马逊、谷歌 、微软 、Meta、甲 骨文等厂商合计 Capex 超过 3700 亿美元，同比增幅超 60%；国内字节、腾讯、 阿里、百度等 Capex 有望超过 3600 亿元，中国移动预计 2025 年在算力领域 投入 373 亿元，电信和联通在算力领域投入同比分别增长 22%和 28%。根据 通信产业网数据，中兴通讯服务器在电信运营商市场份额占比 21%，名列第 一。此外公司已与字节、阿里、百度等云厂展开深度定制的服务器合作。（2） 连接方面：运营商持续布局 5G-A 网络，近期工信部给三大运营商发放卫星 通信牌照，未来面向 6G 通信网络蓄势待发。根据 Delloro 和 Omdia 咨询机 构数据，中兴通讯无线通信市场竞争力仍然位列全球头部（仅次于华为/爱 立信/诺基亚）。此外，5G 网络拉动的 FWA(Fixed Wire ...

芯原股份公告数据显示，预计今年第三季度新签订单15.93亿元，同比大幅增长145.80%。该公司预计 2025年前三季度新签订单32.49亿元，已超过2024年全年新签订单水平。其中，该公司第三季度AI算力 相关的订单占比约达65%。 科创50ETF景顺（588950）紧密跟踪上证科创板50成份指数(000688.SH)，"硬科技"龙头特征显著，高度 聚焦芯片及其相关产业链，半导体权重占比超65%。场外联接基金：A：021484，C：021485。 相关ETF表现强势，科创50ETF景顺(588950)上涨5.84%，冲击3连涨。规模方面，该基金最新规模达 2.99亿元，创近1月新高。 消息面上，假期AI领域利好不断，Sora2的发布，AMD与OpenAI达成战略合作等消息，再度引爆市场对 算力需求的预期。此外，芯原股份发布公告称，经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年第三季度实现营业收 入12.84亿元，单季度收入创公司历史新高，环比大幅增长119.74%，同比大幅增长78.77%。芯原股份新 签及在手订单规模，在今年同样实现创纪录增长。 10月9日早盘，随着AI算力需求的持续发酵，A股科创芯片强势爆发，科创资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - AI generalization has entered a large-scale application period, leading to an exponential increase in computing power demand across various industries. The US is facing a power crisis, and China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years. China will win the Sino-US AI game, and the semiconductor equipment and energy storage industries will be highly prosperous. Silver is a commodity that benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced. Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and the demand for commodities will decline. The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Cycles - **Kitchin Cycle**: China's current Kitchin cycle is expected to reach its peak in Q4 2025, while the US will reach its peak in Q1 2026 [6]. - **Juglar Cycle**: China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase and is expected to peak in early 2027 [7]. - **Kuznets Cycle**: China's current Kuznets cycle is expected to bottom out around 2030 [8]. - **Kondratieff Cycle**: The current Kondratieff depression started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery period. China is the center of this technological innovation cycle, with AI being the most significant innovation [9]. AI Computing Power Demand - The implementation of the "AI +" action indicates China's full transition to an AI economy. The demand for computing power is growing exponentially, with token usage expected to increase by about 30 times in a year, 900 times in two years, and 27,000 times in three years. Tech giants are making substantial investments in computing power infrastructure, and global AI data center and chip investment is expected to reach $2.9 trillion by 2028 [10][11][14]. Power Demand and Crisis - The exponential growth in computing power demand leads to an exponential increase in power demand, intensifying the Sino-US power competition. The US is facing a power crisis as its aging power grid struggles to meet the growing demand. China is likely to experience a power shortage in 1 - 2 years despite its efforts to expand new energy power generation [15][16][23]. Semiconductor Equipment Industry - Huawei's AI chip computing power supernodes lead the industry, indicating China's full autonomy in the chip industry chain. The surging demand for computing power will drive the semiconductor equipment industry to remain highly prosperous, and related ETFs are expected to perform well [24][25][28]. Energy Storage and Photovoltaic Industries - China's strong power construction mobilization ability ensures its victory in the Sino-US AI game. The energy storage industry is highly prosperous due to the increasing power demand, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to recover in 2026 [33][36]. Silver - Silver benefits from both endless computing power and endless electricity. The demand for silver is expected to surge, widening the supply-demand gap and leading to a shortage of physical silver [37]. Stock Market - The stock market style is shifting, and the CSI 300 Index is well-balanced with limited downside and significant upside potential. The CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices have reached new highs, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index and ChiNext Index are expected to continue rising. A large amount of domestic and foreign capital is flowing into the A-share market [44][46][47]. Gold - The Fed's policy shift towards full employment and tolerance of inflation, combined with the potential for negative real interest rates in the US, will drive gold prices higher [48][49]. Commodities - Due to the anti-involution in the mid - and downstream industries, the demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening. However, copper prices may strengthen temporarily, and lithium carbonate may enter a new bull market in H2 2026 [50][51][52]. Bonds - As the stock market rises, bond funds are facing large-scale redemptions, and the bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market. The real interest rate is trending towards negative values [52]. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is likely to enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [53][55][56]. October Outlook for Major Asset Classes - **Equity Assets**: The stock market's wealth effect is attracting savings from the household sector, and overseas funds are flowing into Chinese assets. The semiconductor equipment index and battery index are expected to remain highly prosperous [3][56]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold will soar due to the Fed's policy shift, and silver may face severe supply shortages [3][56]. - **Commodities**: The demand for upstream resource commodities is weakening [3][56]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market is becoming a source of funds for the stock market as the real interest rate turns negative [3][56]. - **Foreign Exchange Assets**: The offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen and enter the 6 - level by the end of the year [3][56].

Core Insights - A-shares continued to rise with all three major indices increasing, driven by strong performance in gold stocks, controllable nuclear fusion concepts, and the semiconductor industry chain [1] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) rose over 2%, with top-performing holdings including Keda Xunfei, Wanjing Technology, Shiji Information, Yonyou Network, Zhongke Shuguang, and Inspur Information [1] - The computing power sector is experiencing significant catalysts, with Huawei's Ascend announcing support for Alibaba's Qwen3-VL-30B-A3B, indicating a positive outlook for domestic computing power [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Standardization Administration released guidelines for cloud computing standardization, aiming to establish over 30 new national and industry standards by 2027 [1] - OpenAI's recent developments, including the release of the Sora2 video generation model and a milestone partnership with AMD, signify a new phase in the AI industry characterized by collaborative evolution between content and computing power [1] Industry Trends - AI technology narratives are strengthening, with accelerated investment in AI computing infrastructure [2] - The A-share technology sector remains a clear structural focus, with expectations for high activity in the TMT sector post-holiday, particularly in storage chips, wafer fabs, domestic computing power, and energy storage [2] - The cloud computing 50 ETF (516630) tracks an index with a high AI computing power content, covering popular computing concepts such as optical modules, computing leasing, data centers, AI servers, and liquid cooling [2]

Core Insights - OpenAI and AMD have signed a significant agreement involving the supply of 6GW of AMD chips and warrants, marking a strategic shift for AMD from a follower to a potential leader in AI hardware [1][6] - Following the announcement, AMD's stock surged nearly 40%, reflecting strong market optimism about the partnership [3] - The collaboration includes a capital binding mechanism allowing OpenAI to acquire up to 160 million shares at a minimal price, potentially making it a 10% shareholder in AMD [6][7] AMD's Strategic Shift - Historically, AMD has been seen as a secondary player in the CPU and GPU markets, competing against Intel and NVIDIA [5] - The AI boom has created a demand for large-scale computing power, prompting AMD to focus resources on data centers and accelerator businesses [5] - The partnership with OpenAI represents a critical turning point for AMD, providing an opportunity to enhance its position in the AI hardware ecosystem [6] Supply Logic and Industry Changes - The collaboration reflects a "multi-source supply strategy" in response to the increasing demand for computing power, which has historically been dominated by NVIDIA [8][11] - OpenAI's need for diverse computing capabilities indicates a shift away from reliance on a single supplier, highlighting the importance of a competitive AI infrastructure [11] Challenges Facing AMD - Despite the strategic significance of the partnership, AMD faces several challenges in execution and long-term stability [13] - Achieving the ambitious goal of deploying 6GW of computing power will require significant upgrades in infrastructure, including data centers and power supply [14] - AMD's reliance on third-party foundries like TSMC for manufacturing poses risks related to production capacity and competition for resources [16] Software and Ecosystem Compatibility - The success of AMD's hardware will depend on software compatibility and the robustness of its developer ecosystem, which currently lags behind NVIDIA's established tools [17] - If developers perceive high costs in switching to AMD's platform, widespread adoption may be hindered [17] Market Valuation and Future Scenarios - Analysts speculate that if AMD's stock reaches $600, its market capitalization could approach $1 trillion, based on optimistic assumptions about AI chip business growth [18] - Three potential future scenarios for AMD's partnership with OpenAI include optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic outcomes, each influenced by technological execution and market conditions [20][22][24][26] - In the optimistic scenario, AMD could significantly increase its AI chip revenue share, while the pessimistic scenario could see a regression in its market position [23][27] Conclusion - The partnership between AMD and OpenAI could reshape the AI hardware landscape, presenting both significant opportunities and risks for AMD [28][30] - The outcome of this collaboration will be pivotal for AMD's future in the competitive AI infrastructure market, emphasizing the need for successful execution and market adaptation [30]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance on October 9, with the Hang Seng Tech Index turning positive after initially dropping over 1% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180), which is the largest in its category listed in A-shares, saw significant gains, driven by stocks such as ASMPT, Hua Hong Semiconductor, Lenovo Group, BYD Electronics, and SMIC, with Hua Hong Semiconductor rising over 9% at one point [1] - Goldman Sachs raised the target prices for SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor, maintaining a "buy" rating for both companies, citing the ongoing growth in domestic AI-related semiconductor demand [1] Group 2 - OpenAI and AMD reached a significant agreement on October 6, where OpenAI will deploy up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs over the coming years, with the first 1GW deployment planned for the second half of 2026 [1] - Guosheng Securities noted that OpenAI's recent initiatives highlight the acceleration of computing power construction, emphasizing investment opportunities in computing power, storage, and their industrial chain [1] - As of September 30, Alibaba was the largest weighted stock in the Hang Seng Tech Index, holding a weight of 9.31%, providing a way for investors without a Hong Kong stock connect account to access core Chinese AI assets through the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in the performance of chip-related ETFs and the overall positive sentiment in the semiconductor and AI sectors following recent announcements and developments [1][2][3] Group 2 - On the first trading day after the holiday, major indices rose collectively, with a notable surge in computing power-related stocks. The Tianhong Chip ETF (159310) increased by over 6%, with a net inflow of over 76 million yuan in the last five trading days [1] - The Tianhong Chip ETF (159310) tracks the CSI Chip Industry Index, with top holdings including SMIC, Northern Huachuang, and Cambrian [2] - AMD and OpenAI announced a 6 GW computing power agreement to support OpenAI's next-generation AI infrastructure, with the first deployment of 1 GW of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs planned for the second half of 2026 [2] - Nvidia plans to invest up to $2 billion in Elon Musk's xAI, which is expected to raise $20 billion in this funding round, with $7.5 billion coming from equity and the remainder from debt [2] - The domestic AI model unicorn, Zhipu AI, released and open-sourced its new generation model GLM-4.6, which reportedly matches the coding capabilities of ClaudeSonnet4 [3] - The demand for global computing power, storage, and high-speed connectivity is entering an exponential growth phase, benefiting key sectors such as AI server manufacturing, PCB, optical communication, and liquid cooling [3]

后市展望： 经历了 9 月减速后，10 月 A 股趋势比较明朗。9 月上证指数围绕 150 点区间维持横盘震荡，在指数接近 3900 点整数关前，市场出现一定 分歧。一方面是累积的涨幅较大，市场可能存在一定兑现压力，此外不同板块中报业绩分化也比较大，市场可能需要一次重新定位主线的过程。主线重新 定位并非是行情方向的逆转，而是行情节奏的变化，这是市场震荡上行过程中的正常现象，对中期趋势不会产生影响。展望 10 月，经历了 9 月的获利兑 现和盘整后，目前 A 股已经具备了进一步向上拓展空间的条件。10 月关注重点包括十五五发展规划的定调，三季报披露，科技行业的事件驱动等，预计 多板块有望迎来催化剂，从而推动市场维持震荡上行格局。 9 月主板维持横盘整理走势，双创表现强势。 9 月 A 股分化比较明显，主板上证指数维持窄幅横盘整理，波幅为 150 点左右，上涨速度较 8 月明显放 缓。但以科创 50 和创业板指为代表的科技成长风格依然维持了震荡上行的格局，9 月涨幅双双超过 10%。双创指数之所以表现较好，原因还是在于 AI 和 算力需求旺盛的推动之下，科技硬件的基本面处于上行通道中。预计主板稳中有升，双创继续震 ...