1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1] - The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI business activity index in July 2025 was 50.1%, slightly down from 50.5% in the previous month but similar to the same period last year [1] - Social financing scale increment in July 2025 was not provided, with the previous month at 1132 billion yuan and the same period last year at 770.7 billion yuan [1] - The year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in July 2025 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth rates increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1] - Financial institution RMB loans had a net decrease of 5 billion yuan in July 2025, compared to an increase of 224 billion yuan in the previous month and 26 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - CPI in July 2025 was flat year-on-year, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year [1] - PPI in July 2025 was -3.6% year-on-year, the same as the previous month but lower than -0.8% in the same period last year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative growth rate in July 2025 was 1.6% year-on-year, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% in the same period last year [1] - Export and import values in July 2025 increased by 7.2% and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, both higher than the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - From January to July 2025, stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a 20.7% year-on-year increase. Securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a 62.5% increase. In July alone, it was 15.1 billion yuan, a 125% increase from July 2024 [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is promoting the research and development of innovative products like the BPI index futures and the opening up of polyester sector products [2] - Futures prices of many products such as cotton and urea have become important references for national macro - policy making. Many enterprises in different industries use the futures market to manage risks [2] - China's futures market has improved its internationalization level. As of July 2025, there were 24 specific open - ended futures varieties, and some futures companies have achieved 100% foreign ownership [3] - The London Metal Exchange's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated, which is significant for Hong Kong's development as an international financial center and for promoting RMB use in commodity trading [3][4] Metals - The Chinese Foreign Ministry was unaware of reports about lifting rare - earth export controls to India [5] - Gold has had low volatility since June 2025. Global gold ETFs added 397 tons in the first half of the year. Gold prices may be supported by an over 80% probability of a September interest - rate cut [5] - The world's largest silver ETF reduced its holdings by 16.95 tons [5] - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [5] - UBS expects global gold demand to reach a new high since 2011 and forecasts gold prices to reach $3600 by the end of March 2026 and $3700 by the end of June and September 2026 [6] - On August 18, lead inventory reached a new high in over a month, while zinc, tin, nickel, copper, and aluminum inventories decreased [6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Shandong plans to raise coke prices, with different increases for different types of coke starting from August 19 [8] - Mexico proposes to restore the North American Steel Committee to improve trade relations with the US and reduce Asian steel imports [8] Energy and Chemicals - On August 19, US crude oil futures fell 1.12%. The decline was affected by the expected US - Russia - Ukraine talks, weak demand from India, and increasing supply pressure [9] - Six government departments held a photovoltaic industry symposium to regulate the industry's competition order [9] - US API crude oil inventory decreased by 24.17 million barrels in the week ending August 15 [9][10] - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [10] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to ensure a good autumn harvest, regulate the agricultural product market, promote farmers' income, and prevent risks [12] - The Ministry of Agriculture organized a meeting on preventing and controlling major pests and diseases in autumn crops [12] - New York Arabica coffee futures reached a two - month high due to concerns about Brazil's coffee production [12] - US exporters sold 228,606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [13] - Corn yields in Nebraska, US, are expected to be lower than in 2024 [14] - Indonesia opened its market to Brazilian beef and offal [14] - India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [14] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On August 19, the central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan after 114.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [15] Key News - In July 2025, national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The cumulative revenue in the first seven months increased by 0.1% year - on - year [16] - Government - funded budget expenditures increased by 31.7% in the first seven months due to the expenditure of 2.89 trillion yuan from special bonds and special treasury bonds [16] - Some provinces' audit reports pointed out problems in the use and management of special bonds, including data inaccuracies, project delays, and misappropriation [17] - From September 1, three new conditions for withdrawing personal pensions were added [17] - The central bank increased the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan to support disaster - affected areas [18] - Guangdong plans to issue 2.5 billion yuan of offshore RMB local government bonds in Macau in late August [19] - The second batch of science and technology innovation bond ETFs is about to be submitted, with 14 fund companies involved [19] - There were uncertainties in the principal and interest payment of some bonds, and some companies faced major events such as being presented with a winding - up petition [19] - International credit rating agencies made ratings and outlook adjustments for some countries and companies [19] Bond Market Summary - Bond prices stabilized due to the stock market decline and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations. Most yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds decreased, and treasury bond futures rose [20] - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell [20] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.16%, and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index rose 0.37% [20][21] - Most money - market interest rates increased on August 19 [21] - Shibor short - term rates mostly increased [21] - The winning yields of some agricultural and national development bank financial bonds were announced, along with their subscription multiples [22] - Most inter - bank and silver - bank repurchase fixed - rate bonds increased [22] - Most European and US bond yields decreased [23] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1820 on August 20, down 28 points from the previous day. The central parity rate was 7.1359, down 37 points [25] - The US dollar index rose 0.12% in New York trading, and most non - US currencies fell [25] Research Report Highlights - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that from May, the bond market has been driven by asset allocation. In August - October, the bond market may face pressure from capital diversion and crowded trading structures [26] - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that the bond market should focus on defense. Insurance funds may start to accept 10 - year treasury bonds at a yield of 1.8%, while trading funds should wait for opportunities [26] - Yangtze River Fixed Income expects that the central bank's mention of preventing capital idling will not lead to a tightening of the capital market. Liquidity will remain reasonably abundant [26] - CITIC Securities reports that the bank wealth - management scale exceeded 32.67 trillion yuan in late July, and it is expected to reach over 33.5 trillion yuan this year [27] - Shenwan Fixed Income expects local bond issuance and net financing to increase significantly in the next period [27][28] - Xingzheng Fixed Income points out that bond ETFs may face redemption and selling pressure during market adjustments. Investors can choose more resilient ETFs and take advantage of price discounts [28] - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the central bank may restart open - market treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter when the 10 - year treasury bond yield is in a certain range [28] - CICC Research Report states that the market's pricing of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, but the Fed will be cautious due to the risk of "stagflation - like" conditions [29] Today's Bond Market Reminders - On August 20, 142 bonds were listed, 171 bonds were issued, 117 bonds were due for payment, and 112 bonds were due for principal and interest repayment [30][31] 4. Stock Market News - On August 20, the A - share market had a narrow - range shock, with the three major indices falling and the North Exchange 50 hitting a new high. Consumer electronics, CPO, and liquor sectors led the gains [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.21%. Oriental甄选's stock price fluctuated greatly. South - bound funds had a large net purchase [32] - Brokers are competing for customers by offering low commission rates [32] - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching a 10 - year high [33] - Foreign institutions are increasing their positions in Chinese stocks. Many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market [34] - As of August 19, social security funds appeared in the top ten tradable shareholders of 89 stocks, with 20 new heavy - position stocks [34] - As of August 19, 666 A - share companies released their semi - annual reports, and over 60% achieved year - on - year profit growth [34]

Group 1 - The central banks are expected to maintain a cautious approach towards interest rate decisions, with the Federal Reserve unlikely to implement significant rate cuts despite political pressure [1][2] - The market anticipates a potential resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in September, but the extent of any cuts is expected to be limited to 25 basis points rather than 50 [2] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and is expected to conclude its current easing cycle after November [3] Group 2 - Fitch Ratings indicates that Indian companies are not significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs, but sectors like pharmaceuticals may face increased pressure due to secondary effects of tariffs [4] - If the U.S. maintains higher tariffs compared to other Asian markets, it could pose moderate downside risks to India's projected economic growth rate of 6.5% for FY2026 [4] - The potential for over-supply shifts towards India due to U.S. tariffs could lead to a decrease in domestic prices for products like steel and chemicals, creating a ripple effect in the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market is experiencing high - level fluctuations due to unclear inflation prospects. The price of precious metals is affected by factors such as the US inflation outlook, macro - data, and geopolitical situations. It is expected that precious metals will continue to fluctuate at high levels. If the precious metals maintain a bullish trend, gold has higher certainty due to its monetary and safe - haven attributes, while silver may have greater upside potential under the support of gold and abundant liquidity [3][8][72]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Performance**: London gold traded between $3405 - $3330 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 1.86%. London silver traded between $38.7 - $37.5, with a weekly decline of 0.86%. Shanghai gold traded between 789 - 773 yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.52%. Shanghai silver traded between 9368 - 9135 yuan, with a weekly decline of 0.8%. The US dollar index fell to the 97 - 98 range, with a weekly decline of 0.33%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded from its previous low, closing at 4.32% on Friday [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The market is trading around the US inflation outlook. The unexpected PPI data has increased concerns about inflation and dampened interest - rate cut expectations, which has hindered the rebound of precious metals. The possibility of a缓和 in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has also put pressure on precious metals [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, it is advisable to wait and see [11]. 2. Macro - level Data Tracking - **US Economic Growth**: The US GDP growth in the second quarter was 3%, exceeding the expected 2.4%. However, a detailed analysis shows that the growth may be illusory. The significant decline in imports has inflated the net - export component, and the consumption and investment sectors are showing signs of weakness. Retail data is volatile, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations are also affected by tariffs [26][28]. - **PMI Indicators**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in July unexpectedly dropped to 48, the lowest since October 2024. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI in June was 50.8. Tariffs have brought price pressures and led to a contraction in orders and employment [33]. - **Employment**: The seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in July were 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downward, causing market panic and raising questions about data credibility [38]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in July showed a moderate rebound, and the PPI reached a high since February. The impact of tariffs on inflation may be further transmitted in the future. Although some tariffs have been postponed or cancelled, the risk of stagflation has not been eliminated [40][42]. 3. Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The report presents the trends of gold and silver ETF positions and CFTC speculative net positions, but no specific analysis is provided [46]. - **Gold Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the total global gold supply increased by 1% to 4,974 tons, and the total demand increased by 1% to 4,554 tons. Investment demand reached a four - year high, while jewelry consumption hit a record low. Central banks bought 1044.6 tons of gold for the third consecutive year. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase, and investment, central - bank purchases, and technology demand are likely to be positive factors, while jewelry demand may be under pressure [50]. - **Silver Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31,573 tons, an increase of 2% year - on - year, and the demand was 36,208 tons, a decrease of 3% year - on - year, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 4,634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2% to 32,055 tons, and the demand is expected to decrease slightly, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow to 3,658 tons. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry, which has been growing rapidly, is likely to slow down [62]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, central banks around the world have been actively buying gold, especially developing countries such as China, Poland, Turkey, and India. China has been increasing its gold reserves for five consecutive months since November 2024 [60].

中金公司研报表示，近期市场对美联储降息的定价大幅提升，美联储内部分歧加剧，既有赞同降息也有 主张观望的声音。美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特等人也在向美联储施压，呼吁大幅度降低利率。但 我们认为，现实条件并不支持大幅降息，当前美国面临的最大风险是"类滞胀"，而降息并不能解决这一 矛盾。货币政策仍应以稳定通胀（预期）为核心，而非追求短期增长或屈从于政治压力。因此我们判 断，美联储在降息决策上将保持谨慎，不会大幅宽松。就业放缓与通胀粘性并存，货币政策路径的变数 将大大提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has significantly increased the pricing for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve, but internal divisions within the Fed suggest a cautious approach to any substantial easing, primarily due to the risk of "stagflation" rather than a straightforward demand decline [2][13]. Group 1: Reasons Against Significant Rate Cuts - Reason 1: Rate cuts cannot address "stagflation" as the U.S. economy faces increasing downward pressure on total demand, with private sector final sales declining at an annualized rate of 1.2% in Q2, the lowest level in 2023 [2][8]. - Reason 2: The assumption of "ignoring inflation" is invalid, as tariff-induced inflation is not fully passed on to consumers, and a significant rate cut could lead to widespread price increases, exacerbating inflation rather than alleviating it [8][9]. - Reason 3: Historical data shows that the Fed has only cut rates once in an environment where core CPI growth exceeded 3%, and a repeat of such a scenario could lead to increased yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, indicating market skepticism about the Fed's ability to control inflation [9][12]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - Employment growth has slowed, with an average of 35,000 new non-farm jobs added over the last three months, indicating a cooling labor market [2][8]. - Inflation pressures are still building, as evidenced by the rebound in core CPI and PPI growth rates in July, alongside a decline in consumer confidence but a rise in inflation expectations [2][6]. - The potential for significant market volatility exists if the Fed were to implement large rate cuts, which could undermine trust in the Fed's inflation control measures and lead to a detrimental cycle of economic instability [12][13].

Group 1: Economic Conditions - The U.S. is currently experiencing "quasi-stagflation," characterized by economic weakness and commodity inflation coexisting[1] - Manufacturing and real estate sectors have shown varying degrees of weakness, with the July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48%, the lowest this year[6] - The primary drivers of U.S. economic growth are showing marginal weakness, with Q2 GDP growth at an annualized rate of 3.0%, largely due to a contraction in imports[6] Group 2: Inflation and Interest Rates - Current inflation may not be sufficient to prevent the restart of interest rate cuts, as resilient core service inflation has not increased significantly[10] - The July CPI year-on-year growth was 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%, indicating that overall inflation is not as strong as anticipated[11] - Market expectations currently include three rate cuts, but this may be adjusted based on the pace of unemployment rate increases[22] Group 3: Unemployment Trends - The speed of the increase in the unemployment rate may be a key factor in determining the extent of interest rate cuts, with projections suggesting it may rise to 4.4%-4.5% by year-end[17] - The unemployment rate has fluctuated between 4.0%-4.2% this year, indicating a relatively stable labor market[21] Group 4: Risks and Market Outlook - Potential risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected increases in international oil prices, and a more significant-than-expected weakening of the U.S. labor market[26] - The dollar index may have further downside potential, and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds are expected to perform better than long-term bonds[23]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to shift from liquidity-driven to performance-driven and policy validation phases as the focus moves from "expectation" to "realization" in August [1] - The refinancing market in Hong Kong has seen explosive growth, with over 240 companies raising a total of HKD 183.9 billion, which is 2.17 times the total refinancing amount for the entire year of 2024 [1] - Key sectors to focus on include solar energy, rare earths, lithium, and express delivery, which directly benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, as well as pharmaceuticals and technology with high growth potential [1] Group 2 - The U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" phase with both tariffs and interest rates expected to remain elevated, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures [2] - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a recovery, with tablet shipments expected to reach 39 million units in Q2 2025, a 9% year-on-year increase [2] - Major tech companies like Google and Microsoft are increasing their capital expenditure, indicating strong demand for AI infrastructure and hardware [3] Group 3 - The global PC shipment volume is projected to grow by 8.4% year-on-year in Q2 2025, driven by factors such as the end of Windows 10 support and the rise of AI PCs [4] - AI chip and hardware technology advancements are expected to boost demand for high-performance computing, with OpenAI's release of GPT-5 enhancing the need for inference computing power [4] - The domestic semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings [4] Group 4 - The ChiNext Index has seen a strong increase of 3.10%, with notable gains from companies like Sanhuan Group and Xinyi Technology [7] - The ChiNext ETF has shown a year-to-date net value increase of 11.19%, with a maximum monthly return of 37.37% since its inception [8] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ChiNext Index account for 52.52% of the index, with Ningde Times and Dongfang Wealth being the most significant contributors [10]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high-high" era, characterized by prolonged high tariffs and interest rates, which may lead to "quasi-stagflation" pressures [1] Group 1 - The combination of high tariffs and interest rates presents a typical policy dilemma for the Federal Reserve [1]

中金公司研报指出，当前美国经济正在步入"双高"时代——关税与利率或都将长期维持高位（high for longer）。我们认为这一组合将带来"类滞胀"压力：从"滞"的角度来看，关税本质上是一种税收，它会 推高进口商品成本，增加美国企业和消费者负担。若关税成本由企业承担，则会导致利润下降、投资与 招聘意愿减弱；若由消费者承担，则会削弱购买力，抑制消费支出。无论谁承担，最终结果都是抑制总 需求。与此同时，美联储因担心通胀而迟迟未能降息，导致利率居高不下，抑制了利率敏感型行业、尤 其是房地产的复苏。这将加大美国增长放缓压力，劳动力市场也随之承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. economy is entering a "high for longer" era characterized by sustained high tariffs and interest rates, leading to "stagflation-like" pressures that suppress overall demand and economic growth [3][4]. Group 1: Stagnation Factors - The combination of high tariffs and high interest rates is significantly suppressing demand in the U.S. economy. The effective average tariff rate is projected to rise from 17.3% to 20.5%, indicating a long-term institutionalization of tariff policies [6][11]. - Tariffs increase the cost of imported goods, which can either reduce corporate profits or diminish consumer purchasing power, ultimately leading to suppressed total demand [6][7]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in U.S. tariff revenue, reaching $27 billion in June, indicating that the impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced [7][9]. - High interest rates, maintained by the Federal Reserve due to inflation concerns, are particularly detrimental to interest-sensitive sectors like real estate, which has seen negative growth in investment since Q1 [11][15]. - The U.S. GDP data indicates a slowdown in domestic private sector final sales, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration [15][16]. Group 2: Inflationary Pressures - Despite many companies absorbing tariff costs to maintain market share, the institutionalization of tariffs may lead to increased prices for consumers as companies face squeezed profit margins [29][31]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June shows rising prices in certain goods, indicating that tariff costs are beginning to affect retail prices [31][33]. - Predictions suggest that retail automobile prices may rise by 4% to 8% by the end of the year, contributing to upward pressure on core inflation [33][34]. Group 3: AI as a Counterbalancing Factor - The rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) is driving increased capital expenditure in sectors such as data centers, chip manufacturing, and software development, partially offsetting the negative impacts of high tariffs and interest rates [19][20]. - Since the release of ChatGPT, spending on data center construction has surged, nearing levels of office building expenditures, with a 13.9% year-on-year increase in investments related to AI [19][21]. - However, AI's growth may also lead to structural challenges, such as job displacement for less skilled workers, contributing to a rising unemployment rate among younger demographics [25][27]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Uncertainty - The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma with simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation, leading to internal divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions [36][39]. - Recent statements from various Federal Reserve officials reflect a lack of consensus on whether to lower rates or maintain them, increasing uncertainty in monetary policy and market volatility [36][39].