1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, macro factors continued to dominate the financial market. Concerns about the AI bubble resurfaced, leading to a sharp decline in global markets, including stocks, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals. However, Shanghai copper rebounded due to news of increased state purchases and then declined again with the external market, finally stabilizing at around 100,000 [4]. - The copper market's sharp decline was mainly driven by sudden panic in the macro - level, and some factors that previously pushed copper prices to new highs have changed. But copper will remain a focus of global strategic resource competition, and its structural shortage may continue. Before the Spring Festival, copper prices may stabilize after a rapid release of risks [4]. - The aluminum market shows mixed trends. Alumina production capacity has some fluctuations, and electrolytic aluminum supply is increasing unexpectedly. The demand of downstream enterprises is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating [4]. - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to macro - sentiment disturbances and pre - holiday capital outflows [4]. - The lead market has sufficient supply and weak demand. Affected by the decline in precious metal prices, lead prices hit a new low in 2026. After the pre - holiday profit - taking of short - selling funds in precious metals, the market may stabilize [4]. - The nickel market has a strong support at the mine end, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore, and the downstream demand maintains rigid procurement. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. - The industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are affected by production cuts on both the supply and demand sides, and are expected to fluctuate [5]. - The lithium carbonate market is affected by factors such as mine risks and changes in supply and demand. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the power demand off - season [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - **Economic data of the current week (2/2 - 2/8)**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, higher than the previous value; the eurozone's January manufacturing PMI was 49.5; the US January ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.6, reaching a new high since February 2022; the US January ADP employment increase was 22,000, lower than expected; the US January ISM services PMI was 53.8, reaching a new high since 2024 [12][13][15][17][18]. - **Policy and news**: China's Non - ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the national reserve; US President Donald Trump plans to invest $12 billion in strategic key mineral reserves [14][16]. - **Next - week economic data calendar (2/9 - 2/15)**: It includes data such as China's January M1 and M2 money supply year - on - year, the US January NFIB small business optimism index, and the US January unemployment rate [20]. 2. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper first rebounded and then declined, and finally stabilized at around 100,000. The copper market was mainly affected by macro factors and inventory changes [4]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes LME copper spot/three - month spread, Shanghai copper inter - period spread curve, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [30][33]. 3. Aluminum - **Market review**: Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the overall upward trend temporarily maintained [37]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes 6063 aluminum rod inventory, alumina port inventory, aluminum bauxite port inventory, electrolytic aluminum social inventory, electrolytic aluminum cost and profit, and alumina production cost and profit [41][42][43][45]. 4. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc showed a trend of rising and then adjusting, with the upward trend of shock temporarily unchanged [50]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory/warehouse receipts, global visible zinc inventory, 0 zinc ingot premium, zinc forward curve, and zinc - related product prices [52][53][58][59]. 5. Lead - **Market review**: Shanghai lead showed a downward trend of shock, with overall range fluctuations [65]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange lead inventory/warehouse receipts, global lead inventory, lead forward curve, lead spot premium, and LME lead (spot/three - month) spread [67][70][74]. 6. Nickel - **Market review**: Shanghai nickel fell from a high level and was under pressure from the lower edge of the upper shock area [78]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory, LME nickel global inventory, high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plate prices, nickel and nickel sulfate prices, and stainless steel inventory [81][82][87][88][90][91][92]. 7. Tin - **Market review**: Shanghai tin continued to decline after rising, and was temporarily supported by the lower trend line [95]. - **Key data tracking**: It includes tin futures closing prices, Shanghai tin premium, tin smelting profit, LME tin (spot/three - month) spread, tin - related product prices, Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory, and LME tin inventory [98][99][100][101][104]. 8. Other Metals (Gold, Silver, etc.) - **Trend analysis**: Shanghai gold rebounded after falling from a high level, maintaining an overall upward trend; Shanghai silver fell again after a rebound, breaking through the previous low, and the trend weakened; platinum and palladium showed wide - range fluctuations; industrial silicon showed wide - range fluctuations and broke through the lower limit of the range; alumina showed small - range fluctuations; polysilicon showed small - range fluctuations and stabilized; aluminum alloy showed small - range fluctuations and the downward trend changed; stainless steel and lithium carbonate fell from high levels, and the upward trend changed [109][111][112][114][116][118][119][122].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, covering financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies for each sector [5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, the stock index showed differentiation. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index rose 1.14%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.83%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.15%, and the CSI 1000 Index slightly fell 0.02%. The total market turnover was 2.5 trillion yuan. Stock index futures rebounded across the board [20]. - Core logic: Overnight U.S. technology stocks fell, affecting A - share technology stocks. However, the market remained stable and improved overall, with a style shift occurring. The short - term market is expected to remain oscillating strongly [20]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be oscillating strongly, buying on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM/IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use a bull spread strategy [21]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: On Wednesday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.23%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.02% [22]. - Core logic: The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity and the increase in risk appetite have slightly suppressed the bond market. In the short term, the market lacks a clear driver, and the bond market sentiment may become more cautious [22]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should consider buying TF and T contracts on dips; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products 3.2.1 Protein Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybean index rose 2.39% to 1099.75 cents per bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 2.38% to 300.9 dollars per short ton [25]. - Core logic: The improvement of trade relations has boosted the U.S. soybean market. South American dry weather also provides some support, but overall supply and demand are relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal cost is under pressure, but spot prices may be supported in the short term [26]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, sell a wide - straddle strategy [26]. 3.2.2 Sugar - Market performance: The previous trading day, the ICE U.S. raw sugar main contract price dropped 1.5% to 14.41 cents per pound, and the London white sugar main contract fell 1.46% to 411.2 dollars per ton [27]. - Core logic: Internationally, the Brazilian sugar influence is declining, and the northern hemisphere is in an increasing production cycle. However, sugar prices have reached a low level, and some institutions' forecasts for the 2026/27 sugar production and consumption are favorable. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but the international price rebound and improved macro - sentiment may lead to a bottom - oscillating price [30]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect international and domestic sugar prices to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31]. 3.2.3 Oilseeds and Oils - Market performance: Overnight, the CBOT U.S. soybean oil main price changed by 2.15% to 55.69 cents per pound, and the BMD Malaysian palm oil main price changed by - 0.07% to 4219 ringgit per ton [33]. - Core logic: The market is affected by trade and policy expectations. Malaysian palm oil may reduce production and inventory in January, but the high - base inventory may remain at a relatively high level. The U.S. biodiesel demand is expected to be good, which is beneficial to soybean oil. However, soybean oil supply pressure may shift later. Rapeseed oil may have some support [33]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect oils to oscillate widely; for arbitrage, consider shorting the y59 spread at high levels; for options, stay on the sidelines [34]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel - Market performance: The night - trading session of the black sector was oscillating weakly. On the 4th, the construction steel trading volume was 3.61 million tons, and the trading volume continued to decline approaching the Spring Festival [57]. - Core logic: The demand is marginally weakening, and the steel price follows the raw materials to oscillate. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the winter demand is declining. However, the cost is supported by the steel mill's replenishment demand. The short - term steel price may oscillate strongly following coal [57]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should follow the raw materials to oscillate strongly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short coil - rebar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [58]. 3.3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - Market performance: Recently, the coking coal futures have fluctuated greatly due to news of Indonesia's coal policy [60]. - Core logic: The actual impact of Indonesia's coal production reduction policy remains to be seen. The current market is dominated by funds and emotions, and the coking coal valuation is not high. The supply - side events may be repeatedly traded [60]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be mainly for band trading, and cautious investors should stay on the sidelines. Consider buying on dips after a pull - back; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [61]. 3.3.3 Iron Ore - Market performance: The night - trading iron ore price fell 1.02%. The current macro - sentiment and capital game are significant, and the iron ore valuation is moderately high [63]. - Core logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand may be less than expected in the first half of the year. The domestic iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the high valuation is difficult to sustain. The iron ore price is expected to run weakly [63]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a weak operation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [63]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Market performance: London gold rose 0.36% to 4964.69 dollars per ounce, and London silver rose 3.44% to 88.13 dollars per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.64% to 1114 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.03% to 22955 yuan per kilogram [67]. - Core logic: The gold and silver markets first rose and then fell. The weak U.S. ADP employment data initially supported the prices, but then the market was affected by the performance of U.S. technology stocks. In the short term, caution should be exercised, especially during the Spring Festival [68]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the 20 - day moving average support and hold long positions in Shanghai silver cautiously based on the 30 - day moving average; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, use a bull call spread strategy [70]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Market performance: The outer - market platinum and palladium fluctuated widely. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract PT2606 rose 3.54% to 572.95 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract PD2606 rose 8.62% to 450.55 yuan per gram [70]. - Core logic: The strong U.S. dollar has a negative impact on non - ferrous and precious metals. Platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, and palladium has shifted from a supply - demand gap to a supply surplus. Platinum has a stronger upward drive [70]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be cautiously bullish on platinum and palladium, buying on dips and paying attention to position management; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [71]. 3.4.3 Copper - Market performance: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2603 closed at 102590, down 2.22%, and LME copper closed at 13040 dollars per ton, down 2.76% [72]. - Core logic: The Sino - U.S. leaders' call and AI - related stock fluctuations have led to a slight decline in copper prices. The downstream replenishment has slowed down the inventory accumulation. The strategic reserve demand and supply disturbances provide long - term support for copper prices [73]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should take a long - on - dips approach, but control the position before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [74]. 3.5 Shipping 3.5.1 Container Shipping - Market performance: The spot freight rates of the SCFI European line and SCFIS European line showed a downward trend [108]. - Core logic: The resumption of some shipping routes is offset by geopolitical tensions. The demand is peaking and then declining, and the supply in March is expected to increase. The traditional off - season is approaching, and the freight rate is expected to decline after the Spring Festival [108]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, take profit on the 6 - 10 positive spread at high levels and then stay on the sidelines, waiting for opportunities to operate on dips [109]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Market performance: WTI crude oil futures rose 3.05% to 65.14 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to 69.46 dollars per barrel [111]. - Core logic: The uncertainty of the U.S. - Iran nuclear negotiation has led to wide - range oscillations in international oil prices. The Brent main contract is expected to oscillate between 66 - 69 dollars [113]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options should all stay on the sidelines [113]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Market performance: The outer - market WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose, and the asphalt futures showed a small increase. The spot prices in various regions were stable [114]. - Core logic: The geopolitical risk has increased the volatility of asphalt, which follows the crude oil price. There are still concerns about the long - term raw material cost increase and supply gap. The supply is low, and the demand is weakening [115]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect high - level oscillations and go long on BU2606 on dips; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU - short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [116]. 3.6.3 Fuel Oil - Market performance: The FU03 contract closed at 2800 (+0.86%), and the LU04 contract closed at 3266 (+0.62%) [118]. - Core logic: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by high - price transactions in the Singapore spot window. Geopolitical factors are the main bullish drivers. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply has increased recently [119]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should expect a strong oscillation and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 positive spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [120].

2026年01月30日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：库存去化 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存持续增加，施压价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：高位高波 | 10 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：震荡上行 | 12 | | 钯：ETF持续流入，跟随上涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 30 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

2026年01月29日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺120 | 2 | | 铜：美元承压，价格偏强 | 4 | | 锌：现实偏强 | 6 | | 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 10 | | 氧化铝：逢高沽空 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：跟随抬升 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 29 日 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 120 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The report maintains a bullish outlook on copper in the medium - term, expecting supply constraints and demand growth. For aluminum, overseas active restocking supports prices. Zinc has potential for a catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities. Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, with a policy - fundamentals game. Stainless steel follows nickel prices. Lead is expected to oscillate in a certain range, and short - term short - selling is recommended at high prices. Tin can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward fluctuations in the second half of 2026. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term. Lithium carbonate may see a spot - futures resonance market [1][2][7] Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices tested the 99,000 support level during the week and rose sharply on Friday night. The US's ability to siphon inventory is waning, but global consumption is strong, and copper has strong demand support. In China, pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation may be faster, but post - festival destocking may also be rapid [1] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import profit was - 91.50, and the LME inventory increased by 3,450 [1] Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Aluminum ingot prices increased, and the LME 0 - 3M spread returned to negative. Aluminum ingot basis and downstream processing fees are low, but apparent demand has rebounded. Auto consumption in December was below expectations, but photovoltaic installation increased, and overseas restocking supports prices [2] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai aluminum ingot prices increased by 370, and the LME inventory decreased by 2,000 [2] Zinc - **Price Movement**: Zinc prices increased. Supply - side TC is declining, and production is expected to increase in January. Demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the export window was open in December. The market is optimistic about zinc's catch - up rise, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [5][7] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, Shanghai zinc ingot prices increased by 310, and the LME inventory decreased by 200 [5][6] Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices increased. Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and domestic inventory increased slightly. There is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals due to Indonesian policies [11][12] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 2,060.88, and the LME inventory decreased by 768 [11] Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: Stainless steel prices were relatively stable. Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and costs are stable. Inventory decreased slightly, and prices mainly follow nickel prices [13][14] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, 304 cold - rolled coil prices decreased by 100 [13][14] Lead - **Price Movement**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 17,100 - 17,600. Supply is increasing due to high profits, demand is weakening, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term short - selling at high prices is recommended [15][18] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the Shanghai - Henan price difference increased by 25, and the LME inventory decreased by 3,250 [15][18] Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated upward. Supply recovery in the first quarter is uncertain, and demand has different trends in different sectors. It can be a long - position allocation in the first quarter, but may face downward pressure in the second half of 2026 [21] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the change in spot import earnings was - 17,252.19, and the LME inventory increased by 40 [21] Industrial Silicon - **Price Movement**: Industrial silicon supply is shrinking, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. Prices are expected to oscillate with costs in the short - term and at the cycle bottom in the long - term [23] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 5, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 96 [23] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: Lithium carbonate prices increased. The market was driven by production - halt expectations, and short - term supply and demand are close to balance. A spot - futures resonance market may occur [25] - **Data Changes**: From January 19 - 23, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 6,500, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 730 [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - For copper, the price pulled back in the second half of the week, and the market sentiment cooled. In the short - term, negative factors are released, but the price is expected to rise in the medium - term as the fundamentals feature limited supply and increasing demand [1] - For aluminum, the basis and downstream processing fees are low, with continuous inventory accumulation. Domestic demand has short - term support, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are average, but the market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage and positive arbitrage opportunities [2] - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] - For lead, the price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] - For tin, the price fluctuates greatly, and is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - For industrial silicon, the supply - demand is balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] - For lithium carbonate, the short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory**: The copper price pulled back in the second half of the week. The LME inventory increased by 3100, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2612 [1] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff issues and high inventories in the US triggered concerns. In the short - term, negative factors are released, and the inventory may accumulate faster before the Spring Festival but decline quickly after the festival. The medium - term outlook is positive [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: The aluminum price declined. The LME inventory increased by 24175, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Analysis**: The basis and processing fees are low, and the inventory is accumulating. Domestic demand has short - term support from photovoltaic, and overseas active restocking may support the price [1] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: The zinc price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 450, and the SHFE inventory remained unchanged [2] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by TC decline and smelter operations, and demand is weak. The market is optimistic about its allocation flexibility, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [2] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: The nickel price dropped. The LME inventory decreased by 72 [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreased slightly, demand is weak, and there is a game between short - term policies and fundamentals [3] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: The stainless steel price declined slightly. The inventory decreased slightly from a high level [3] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is high, demand is mainly for rigid needs. The price is mainly driven by nickel price in the short - term [3] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: The lead price oscillated at a high level. The inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 3.25 tons [5] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, demand is weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17600 next week [5] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The tin price fluctuated greatly. The LME inventory increased by 250 [8] - **Market Analysis**: The price is affected by capital sentiment. Short - term volatility may decline, and attention can be paid to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [8] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: The basis of different grades changed, and the warehouse receipts increased by 384 [11] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are balanced and loose. The price is expected to oscillate with cost in the short - term and at the bottom of the cycle in the medium - to long - term [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: The price fluctuated. The warehouse receipts increased by 975 [13] - **Market Analysis**: The short - term supply - demand is close to balance. The absolute price is affected by futures market expectations and sentiment, and a spot - futures resonance market may occur [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the potential US refined copper tariff - expected inventory transfer to the US and investment fund inflow. Future copper price performance depends on terminal demand under high - price conditions, US restocking, and Chinese demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and de - stock quickly after the Spring Festival [1] - Aluminum's spot and futures prices are dominated by expected trading, with increased price fluctuations. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously judged, and the strong expectation can support the current high price [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary supply reduction at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities in the monthly spread [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and high - level inventories with a slight reduction. The price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] - Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week. Attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] - Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term, and it can be a multi - allocation for non - ferrous metals in the first quarter. However, there are risks of large - scale inventory accumulation in the overseas LME in the long - term [13] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper changed by 25, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 1252, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 27212. The spot import profit increased by 191.03, and the three - month import profit increased by 282.64 [1] - **Market Outlook**: The recent increase in copper prices is due to the potential US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflow. Future performance depends on terminal demand, US restocking, and Chinese demand [1] Aluminum - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 370, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 370, and the Guangdong aluminum ingot price increased by 380. The domestic alumina price decreased by 1, and the import alumina price remained unchanged. The Shanghai aluminum social inventory had no change record, and the aluminum exchange inventory remained unchanged [1] - **Market Situation**: The spot and futures prices are affected by expected trading. Domestic apparent demand is weaker than expected, with poor automobile terminal sales and good short - term demand from photovoltaic installations [1][2] Zinc - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of zinc remained at 70, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 240, the Tianjin zinc ingot price increased by 270, and the Guangdong zinc ingot price increased by 260. The zinc social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory remained unchanged [5] - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and imported TC of zinc is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally normal overseas [5] - **Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage in the monthly spread [5] Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained at 55.0, the Shanghai nickel spot price increased by 1000, and the Jinchuan premium decreased by 150. The LME inventory increased by 510, and the LME注销仓单 increased by 702 [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term fundamental situation is weak, with a slight decline in pure nickel production, weak demand, and a slowdown in domestic inventory accumulation. The policy and fundamentals are in a short - term game [6][7] Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 304 hot - rolled coil price increased by 50, and the waste stainless steel price increased by 150. The inventory is at a high level with a slight reduction [11] - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with high - level steel mill production, mainly rigid demand, and the price is mainly driven by nickel price changes recently [11] Lead - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot premium of lead decreased by 5, the Shanghai - Henan price difference remained unchanged, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged. The LME inventory decreased by 3725, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 3200 [12] - **Market Situation**: Lead prices are oscillating at a high level following the macro - situation. Supply and demand are in a complex state, and it is expected that lead prices will continue to oscillate next week [12] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot import profit decreased by 1317.95, the spot export profit decreased by 2293.37, and the tin position increased by 11997. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the LME注销仓单 decreased by 10 [12] - **Market Situation**: Tin prices have risen this week. There are supply disturbances in major global suppliers, and downstream restocking is strong. The price has strong support in the short term [13] Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 120, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 120, the 553 East China basis decreased by 120, the 553 Tianjin basis decreased by 120, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 12 [16] - **Market Situation**: Supply and demand are approaching balance in the short term, and the price is expected to oscillate with costs. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle based on seasonal marginal costs [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory**: From January 8 - 14, 2026, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 3500, the main - contract basis increased by 8540, the near - month contract basis increased by 3500, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 260 [19] - **Market Situation**: Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential resource - end disturbances, increased iron - lithium processing fees, and macro - sentiment. Upstream sales strategies are changing, while downstream procurement is cautious [19]