Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Views - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global reductions in supply estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year [12][15]. - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to remain strong due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings [6][26]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by rising inflation expectations and a strong dollar, which are exerting downward pressure on metal prices, particularly for copper and aluminum [11][12]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [34]. - The gold-silver ratio fell by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [34]. - Central banks are expected to continue purchasing gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks and inflation [32]. Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8]. - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with LME copper inventories increasing significantly [10]. - The geopolitical situation is expected to keep copper prices supported in the long term, despite short-term fluctuations [11]. Small Metals - The price of magnesium increased by 2.04% to 18,530 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand from downstream processing enterprises [19]. - Molybdenum prices are under pressure due to ongoing negotiations between supply and demand, with recent reductions in production impacting prices [20]. - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, with a projected increase of 125.6% in new installations by 2025 [23][24]. Market Review - The overall market sentiment is cautious due to geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures, which are affecting investment decisions across various metal sectors [11][12]. - The aluminum market is particularly sensitive to supply disruptions, with significant reductions in production expected from the Middle East and other high-cost regions [15][28]. - Despite concerns over economic weakness, the demand for electrolytic aluminum remains robust due to its essential role in infrastructure and renewable energy sectors [14][15].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are leading to a significant contraction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, with potential global production cuts estimated at 1.5 to 2 million tons per year, representing a 3% to 5% reduction in global supply [12][15][28] - The demand for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, is expected to rise due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical risks, with central banks likely to increase their gold holdings as a hedge against de-dollarization [6][27][33] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a strong likelihood of continued high inflation, which may limit the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates, thereby supporting gold prices in the long term [6][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight decline of 0.05% to $4,489.70 per ounce, while silver prices increased by 2.89% to $69.77 per ounce [35] - The gold-silver ratio decreased by 2.86% to 64.35, indicating a shift in market dynamics [35] - Central banks in various countries are expected to resume or increase their gold purchases, driven by geopolitical risks [33] Base Metals - Copper prices increased by 2.59% to $12,141.00 per ton, while aluminum prices rose by 2.90% to $3,284.50 per ton [8] - The supply of copper is under pressure due to domestic tightness and overseas surplus, with significant fluctuations in demand from downstream processing enterprises [10][11] - The aluminum market is facing supply constraints due to geopolitical tensions, with production risks in the Middle East and high energy costs impacting the industry [12][15][28] Minor Metals - The magnesium market is experiencing price increases due to strong demand from downstream processing enterprises and stable production levels [19] - Molybdenum prices are under pressure from upstream and downstream market dynamics, with ongoing production cuts affecting market stability [20][21] - Vanadium demand is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of vanadium battery installations, driven by energy storage needs [24][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, global risk appetite continues to recover. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends. The stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds fluctuate in the short term, and cautious waiting is recommended; the black commodity sector rebounds in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the non - ferrous sector fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the energy and chemical sector fluctuates greatly in the short term, and cautious long - positions are recommended; precious metals fluctuate greatly and rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Affected by new rumors of a cease - fire between the US and Iran, international oil prices declined in the short term, and the US dollar index and US bond yields declined but remained at relatively high levels. Global risk appetite increased overall. - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report put forward the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025 [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and trade, the domestic stock market rebounded significantly. In the short term, due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rebounded on Tuesday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.37%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1.93%. Spot gold ended a nine - day losing streak and rose 1.54% to 4,474.31 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.8% to 71.05 US dollars/ounce. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was at a low level. The real demand is still weak, the steel inventory has peaked and declined, but the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 188,500 tons week - on - week, and the hot - metal output increased by nearly 69,000 tons. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The rebound in crude oil prices boosted the ore price. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded; the futures prices showed a differentiated trend, with silicon iron being slightly stronger. The rebound in energy prices still supports the ferroalloy prices. The spot price of manganese ore remains firm. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be in short supply, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream replenished stocks intensively at low prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the risk appetite recovered, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually bearish for aluminum, and the supply of aluminum in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. The LME aluminum has fallen near the rising trend line. The year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production from January to February is relatively large, and the pattern of "domestic weakness and foreign strength" may change temporarily [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenues make up for the losses. The overseas smelting plants will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased seasonally [9]. - **Lead**: From January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has recovered seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The domestic social inventory of primary lead has decreased [10]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. The supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside space is limited by high domestic and foreign inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar and other sources have increased. The demand is not good overall, and the industry is significantly differentiated. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 6.11%. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and long - positions can be established at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.17%. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Attention should be paid to the cost support below, and range - bound operations are recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.17%. The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously or profits should be taken in a timely manner [14][15]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol spot price index is 2676.38, up 32.04. The supply has tightened, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been repaired. The methanol price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback [16]. - **PP**: The domestic polypropylene parking rate has increased, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market shows signs of tightness, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern. The biggest uncertainty lies in the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to run strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting external supply [17]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural demand and strong industrial demand". The policy guides the market, and the urea price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [18]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed, and the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil is cautious [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed meal is increasing, and it will adjust with soybean meal in the short term [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting the basis. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will be under pressure with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, and the support for vegetable oils from crude oil risk has weakened. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the production has decreased. The domestic palm oil import is slow, and the market trading is light [21]. - **Corn**: The corn price is adjusting within a narrow range. The sales progress of corn in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. The acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises has decreased, and the possible rice bran auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is improving marginally but is still in the off - season. The industry's production capacity reduction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - **Industry News**: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - **Zinc**: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - **Lead**: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - **Nickel**: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - **Stainless Steel**: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - **Tin**: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Copper**: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - **Alumina**: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - **Zinc**: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - **Lead**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - **Nickel**: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - **Stainless Steel**: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - **Tin**: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is affected by the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and there is significant uncertainty. The situation in the Middle East and Mozambique is having an impact on the aluminum smelting industry, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. [1][16][20] - The supply and demand of various metals are in different states. For example, copper is in a seasonal destocking phase, while zinc has an increase in domestic inventory due to insufficient demand recovery compared to supply. [1][28] - The prices of different metals are expected to have different trends. For instance, copper prices may test key support levels, and aluminum prices are expected to be weak. [1][16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 98,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. The Shanghai copper index increased its position by 9,477 lots to 576,000 lots. The spot market showed different price trends in different regions. [1] - **Important Information**: As of March 16, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 5.46% to 547,300 tons. The production and sales of new energy vehicles from January to February decreased year - on - year. Chile's copper production in January was 409,900 tons, and Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to February decreased by 9.1% year - on - year. [1] - **Logic Analysis**: The conflict between the US and Iran brings uncertainty. The African wet - process copper production may be affected by the shortage of sulfuric acid supply. The downstream consumption is strong, and the substitution of refined copper rods for recycled copper rods is prominent. [1] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait and see as the market sentiment weakens and copper prices test key support levels. For arbitrage and options, also wait and see. [3][4][5] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2505 contract rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,048 yuan/ton, and the weighted position decreased by 1,921 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend. [6] - **Related Information**: Guinea is discussing policies to restrict bauxite production and exports. The UAE's aluminum exports and raw material transportation are affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The registered volume of alumina warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased on March 18. China's alumina exports from January to February decreased year - on - year, while bauxite imports increased. New alumina production capacity is expected to be put into trial production. [7][8][9] - **Trading Logic**: The news of Guinea's policy on bauxite has magnified the price fluctuations of alumina. Although the policy details are not clear, the bauxite supply is in a surplus situation. In the short term, alumina prices may be firm, but the subsequent pressure will come from the supply side. There is a basis for spot - futures arbitrage. [10][12] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a decline in an oscillatory manner. For arbitrage, buy spot delivery products and sell futures. For options, wait and see. [13][14] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 24,800 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 9,662 lots. The spot prices in different regions decreased. [16] - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. China's imports of unforged aluminum and aluminum products from January to February decreased year - on - year, while exports increased. The cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy may affect the orders of related factories. [16][17] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. The reduction in aluminum smelting production in the Middle East and Mozambique continues, and there is a risk of economic weakness due to geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices. [20] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [21][22] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Related Information**: Bahrain Aluminum and Mozal Aluminum have reduced production due to transportation interruptions. The warehouse receipt volume of casting aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows certain data. [23] - **Trading Logic**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision. There is a risk of economic weakness. The supply of scrap aluminum is gradually released, but the demand recovery in the peak season is slow, and high prices and price fluctuations suppress purchasing willingness. [24] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a short - term weak performance following the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [25][26] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 contract decreased by 2.26% to 23,345 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai zinc index increased by 1.28 lots to 205,700 lots. The spot market in Shanghai showed that the downstream enterprises took advantage of the low - price to place orders, and the spot discount narrowed. [26] - **Related Information**: As of March 16, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions increased compared to previous periods. The downstream consumption recovery is slower than the arrival of smelter products. [28] - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of refined zinc in China is increasing, while the demand recovery is insufficient, and the domestic inventory is accumulating. However, there is an expectation of overseas smelter production cuts due to rising energy prices, and the low LME zinc inventory provides some support for zinc prices. [29] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance in the short term. Wait for the price to stabilize and then go long at low prices. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [30] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2605 contract rose 0.79% to 16,650 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai lead index decreased by 11,100 lots to 133,000 lots. The actual shipment volume of recycled refined lead is limited, and downstream battery production enterprises are reluctant to accept the premium price. [31] - **Related Information**: As of March 12, the social inventory of lead ingots increased. The import window is open, and imported lead is increasing. [32] - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in social inventory due to the delivery of goods by holders and the inflow of imported lead suppress the domestic lead market. However, the losses of recycled lead smelting enterprises are expanding, which provides some support for lead prices. [33] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, continue to hold profitable long positions and raise the stop - loss line to protect profits. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [35] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel price decreased by 130 to 17,255 US dollars/ton, the LME nickel inventory decreased by 174 to 283,740 tons, and the LME nickel 0 - 3 spread was - 206.69 US dollars/ton. [36] - **Important Information**: Greenmei has completed the rectification of the accident in Indonesia, and the production of MHP has resumed. The national economic data from January to February shows certain trends. [37] - **Logic Analysis**: The decline in copper prices and the market's trading of the recession expectation after the sharp rise in oil prices lead to a general decline in the non - ferrous metal sector. Although Greenmei has resumed production, the high cost of MHP provides cost support for nickel prices. In the short term, the macro - situation dominates the market. [37] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [38][39] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: Due to the geopolitical tension in West Asia, an Indian stainless - steel company has raised its product prices. The supply of industrial gas is interrupted, and logistics costs have increased. [40][42] - **Logic Analysis**: Overseas manufacturing is shrinking due to energy prices and supply issues, and some manufacturing orders are flowing back to China, but the fear of global economic recession still dominates the price trend. Stainless - steel prices are expected to follow the decline of nickel prices. [42] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, wait for the macro - situation to stabilize. For arbitrage, wait and see. [43] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 370,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,820 yuan/ton or 2.59%. The position increased by 253 lots to 78,500 lots. The spot price decreased, and the market sentiment was cautious. [43] - **Related Information**: NVIDIA expects high revenue from its new AI chips. Nebius and Meta have reached a cooperation agreement. The supply of helium, an important raw material for chip cooling, is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The situation in the Middle East is tense, and the impact of Indonesia's potential ban on tin exports is currently limited. China's imports of tin concentrates are increasing, but the production of refined tin in February decreased. The spot market is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly consume inventory. [47] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance in the range due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and the weakening supply support from Myanmar's resumption of production. For options, wait and see. [48] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: An industrial silicon project in Inner Mongolia has its environmental impact assessment file accepted. [49] - **Logic Analysis**: In terms of supply and demand, the production of organic silicon and polysilicon increased in March, and the production of industrial silicon also increased. The overall supply and demand are in a tight - balance state. The low - price shipment willingness of manufacturers is not strong due to cost considerations. [50] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, conduct range trading. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [51][52][53] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: GlobalData predicts that the global renewable energy installed capacity will increase significantly by 2031, with photovoltaic installed capacity being a major contributor. [54] - **Logic Analysis**: The production of polysilicon increased in March, and the silicon wafer production schedule also increased. The market is in a tight - balance state. The price strategy of manufacturers is divided, and the future price trend depends on whether the industry can maintain sales above the benchmark cost. [57] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect an oscillatory performance with insufficient liquidity, so wait and see. For arbitrage and options, there is currently no suitable strategy. [58][59][60] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: Tesla and LG Energy will invest in a battery factory in Michigan. An auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed. Rongbai Technology plans to adjust the equity structure of its South Korean subsidiary. [61] - **Logic Analysis**: The export of lithium mines from Zimbabwe will affect the domestic supply after May. The demand for batteries is high, and new production capacity of cathode materials will be put into operation in April. The supply and demand are marginally looser in March. Due to the external situation and regulatory environment, it is difficult for lithium prices to reach new highs, but there will be buying support if prices fall sharply. [62][64] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, expect a weak oscillatory performance. For arbitrage and options, wait and see. [65][66]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market's trading logic is diverging, with resource endowment and strategic attributes being re - priced, and China's market purchasing power and seasonal restocking rhythm being key factors. The copper price is supported by tight supply at the mine end but is pressured by high inventory [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger due to concerns about supply contraction from the US - Iran war. The supply and demand situation is complex, with increasing domestic production capacity and high inventory [2]. - The zinc market is under pressure from inventory accumulation, and the export expectation restricts the rebound space. The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue, and short - term consolidation is likely [2]. - The lead market is in a low - level oscillation pattern. Although there is an expectation of inventory reduction after the Lantern Festival, the rebound space is limited due to external excess pressure [2]. - The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation. The market is waiting and seeing [2]. - The tin market has a strong performance in the equity market, but the physical supply - demand situation is weak. The price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. - The lithium carbonate market has a volatile futures price, and the short - term uncertainty is high. The overall inventory is decreasing, but the inventory structure has changed [2]. - The industrial silicon market is under pressure due to weak demand, high inventory, and expected production resumption. It may maintain a low - level oscillation [2]. - The polysilicon market has weak spot trading, and the price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Market**: Before and after the Spring Festival, the copper market was relatively quiet and oscillating. After the festival, the trading center of Shanghai copper rose. The market is affected by factors such as Trump's tariff ruling and the US - Iran military conflict [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The copper concentrate processing fee is in the negative range, and the supply at the mine end is tight. However, the global visible inventory is at a high level, which may suppress the copper price [2]. - **Trend**: The copper price may test the long - term moving average support due to high inventory, despite the support from the moving average dense area [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly, but the fundamental driving force is limited [2]. - **Supply**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased, and some overseas plants have production changes such as shutdown and restart [2]. - **Demand**: Processing enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the domestic apparent consumption has a negative year - on - year growth at the beginning of the year [2]. - **Inventory and Spot**: The inventory has increased significantly after the Spring Festival, and the spot is at a discount. The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger this week [2]. Zinc - **Trend**: The internal and external trends were different last week, and the short - term is in an interval oscillation. The export expectation restricts the rebound space, and the supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME zinc inventory has decreased, and the domestic factory output has decreased. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC of domestic and imported mines has changed [2]. - **Consumption**: The downstream resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to fully resume work after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction rhythm needs to be tracked [2]. Lead - **Market**: Both the internal and external markets are in a low - level oscillation under the dominance of oversupply. The domestic market is in a situation of increasing supply and demand, and the direction is not clear [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open. The domestic mine is resuming production, and the TC is expected to be stable at a low level. The supply pressure is not large [2]. - **Consumption**: The battery enterprises' resumption of work is slow, and it is expected to increase procurement after the Lantern Festival. The inventory reduction needs to be tracked [2]. - **Trend**: The lead price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Futures**: Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures rebounded last week, with reduced trading volume and increased positions [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, and there is an optimistic expectation for demand recovery. Downstream stainless steel plants are resuming work and digesting inventory [2]. - **Spot and Supply**: The spot price has different premiums and discounts, and the inventory of nickel and stainless steel has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The nickel market lacks independent drivers and rebounds following the external situation [2]. Tin - **Market**: The tin price has a large two - way fluctuation, and the technical form has become stronger again. The rise is mainly driven by the excellent performance of the domestic equity market [2]. - **Supply**: Myanmar's tin production is resuming, and Indonesia's export policy is expected to be stable [2]. - **Consumption**: The domestic downstream resumption of work is accelerating, but it is difficult to digest the high tin price. The inventory has increased [2]. - **Trend**: The tin price may face resistance at the previous high, and tin stocks may be positively affected [2]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures rebounded last week, with active trading and a fragile position structure [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price has increased, but the overall trading is light due to the wait - and - see attitude of the upstream and downstream [2]. - **Macro and Demand**: The Iran issue boosts market sentiment, but the annual sales performance is poor, and the power battery orders may decline [2]. - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased, but the inventory structure has changed, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down [2]. - **Trend**: The short - term uncertainty of the lithium carbonate futures price is high [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The silicon price is weakly sorted, and enterprises are mainly waiting and seeing [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The raw materials are stable, the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase, but the downstream demand is weak [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has increased, and the factory inventory in Yunnan and Xinjiang has also increased [2]. - **Trend**: The market may maintain a low - level oscillation due to weak demand, production resumption expectation, and high inventory pressure [2]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon futures are weakly declining, and the spot trading is light [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production in February decreased, and the production in March is expected to increase slightly. The downstream demand support is limited [2]. - **Trend**: The price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has significantly impacted the global commodity market, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty. The conflict has affected the supply and prices of various commodities such as energy, metals, and agricultural products. [122][62][109] - The performance of different industries and commodities varies. Some industries are supported by cost or demand, showing a strong or stable trend, while others are under pressure due to factors such as oversupply or weak demand, showing a weak or volatile trend. [28][34][57] Summary of Each Section Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: After the Spring Festival, the stock index showed differentiation. The A - share market was driven by price - increase expectations, with the main driving force coming from improved product supply - demand relationships and abundant social funds. The geopolitical conflict may lead to market fluctuations, but the stock index is still expected to maintain an upward trend. [21][22] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and the bond yield is expected to decline. However, the strengthening of the bond market may not be sustainable. The "Two Sessions" policy stance may focus on promoting domestic technology development and industrial transformation, and the impact of bond supply on the market is expected to be limited. [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Geopolitical factors and weather conditions have increased market uncertainty. The US soybean processing volume and Brazilian soybean harvest are affected by various factors. The domestic soybean market is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [27][28] - **Sugar**: International sugar production is expected to decline, but the start of the Brazilian new - sugar season in April and May may increase supply pressure. The domestic sugar market has supply pressure but is also supported by low prices and potential import - policy tightening. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state, with a short - term slightly stronger trend. [29][31][32] - **Oils**: The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of crude oil, and the price of oils is expected to follow the upward trend. The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in February, and the supply pressure of domestic soybean oil may be postponed. The overall domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. [33][34] - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The price of US corn has risen, and the domestic corn spot price has increased due to factors such as the start of deep - processing enterprises and the increase in corn supply in North China. However, considering the post - festival selling pressure, the upward space of the futures price is limited. [36][37] - **Hogs**: The overall supply of hogs is still large, and the price is generally in a downward trend. However, due to factors such as the good completion of large - scale enterprise slaughter and the decrease in the inventory of secondary fattening, the short - term spot price may be supported, and the downward space of the futures price is also limited. [38][39] - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut oil is also stable. The supply of peanut kernels for oil is relatively loose, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. [41][42] - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg market enters the off - season. Although the inventory has been alleviated to some extent, the overall de - stocking has weakened due to the good egg price performance. It is recommended to short the June contract. [44][47] - **Apples**: The inventory of apples has decreased significantly recently, and the demand is expected to improve further in March and April. The high cost of apple warehouse receipts also supports the price. It is recommended to go long on the May contract. [48][50][51] - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The fundamentals of cotton are relatively stable, with no obvious negative factors. The global cotton supply is expected to be slightly tight, and the signing situation has improved. It is recommended to go long on Zhengzhou cotton at low prices. [53][55] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The fundamentals of the steel market continue to weaken, with reduced production, increased inventory, and weak demand. However, the geopolitical conflict may drive up the price of non - ferrous metals, leading to a short - term strong - oscillating trend in the steel price. [57] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The international geopolitical conflict may support the domestic coking coal price. The current coking coal price has basically priced in the existing negative factors, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [59][60] - **Iron Ore**: The geopolitical conflict has little impact on the supply of domestic iron ore. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the demand is difficult to improve significantly. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate. [62] - **Ferroalloys**: The price of ferrosilicon is expected to be strong due to cost support, and the price of ferromanganese silicon may be adjusted after a rapid increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in ferrosilicon and partially take profits in ferromanganese silicon. [64][65] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Geopolitical risks have led to a sharp rise in the price of gold and silver. The market is dominated by risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is expected to continue to be strong. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the remaining positions. [67][68] - **Platinum and Palladium**: The price of platinum and palladium is mainly affected by the risk - aversion demand of funds. The price of platinum is expected to be slightly strong in the short term, while the price of palladium is expected to follow the trend of platinum. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and wait and see on palladium. [70][71][72] - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a high - level consolidation state. Although the geopolitical conflict has limited direct impact on copper, long - term war may support the copper price. It is recommended to buy on dips in the long term. [74][76] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is supported, but the expectation of oversupply restricts the price. The price is expected to decline in an oscillating manner. [79] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict may increase the price volatility of electrolytic aluminum. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [80][81] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum market. It is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. [82][83] - **Zinc**: The price of zinc is affected by geopolitical factors and is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes. [84][85][86] - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [87][88][89] - **Nickel**: The price of nickel is mainly affected by macro factors, and the supply - demand relationship is still in a surplus state. However, the expected tight supply in Indonesia may support the price. It is recommended to pay attention to the macro - capital trend. [90][91] - **Stainless Steel**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the price of nickel ore, and the price follows the trend of nickel. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [93][94] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a state of multiple factors, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see. [96][97] - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals of polysilicon are bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see the spot trading situation. [98][99] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the resistance at the previous high. It is recommended to hold long positions at low prices. [102][105] - **Tin**: The price of tin is in a high - level consolidation state. The impact of the Indonesian tin export ban is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. [106][108] Shipping and Carbon Emission - **Container Shipping**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led some shipping companies to reroute to the Cape of Good Hope. The spot freight rate is in the off - season, but the conflict may drive up the freight rate. It is recommended to go long on dips. [109][110] - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The deterioration of the trade environment in the Persian Gulf may boost the freight rate of small - sized ships in the short term. The BDI index has declined slightly, but the performance of small and medium - sized ship markets is better. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East geopolitical situation. [112][113][115] - **Carbon Emission Market**: The domestic carbon market price is stable but lacks activity. The EU carbon market has not摆脱 the downward trend. In the short term, the domestic carbon price is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, while the EU carbon market is affected by policy uncertainty. [116][119][120] Energy and Chemical Industry - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant rise in the price of crude oil. The price of Brent crude oil is expected to be in the range of $78 - 85 per barrel. It is recommended to take profits on out - of - the - money call options. [122] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt is supported by cost but is affected by weak demand. It is recommended to hold long positions in the BU2606 contract and pay attention to geopolitical risks. [124][125] - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are the main driving force for the price of fuel oil. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply changes in Iran and Russia. It is recommended to hold long positions in the FU2605 contract and not chase the high price. [127][129] - **LPG**: The escalation of the Middle East situation has increased the cost support of LPG, and the price is expected to rise significantly. [130] - **Natural Gas**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a supply - side risk in the natural gas market, and the price is expected to rise significantly in the short term. It is recommended to buy a TTF straddle option. [133][134] - **PX & PTA**: The supply of PTA is gradually returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [137][139] - **BZ & EB**: The supply of benzene and styrene is returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and conduct reverse arbitrage. [140][142] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has improved, but the inventory has been continuously increasing. The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. [144][145] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions and reduce the processing cost spread at high prices. [146][147] - **Bottle Chips**: The supply of bottle chips is expected to be tight, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [148][149] - **Propylene**: The supply of propylene is partially returning, and the price is expected to follow the cost and strengthen. It is recommended to hold long positions. [150][151][153] - **Plastic PP**: The inventory of PP at ports has been increasing. It is recommended to try to go long on the L 2605 contract at low prices and wait and see on the PP 2605 contract. [154][155] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is expected to be weak in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to wait and see. [156][158] - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to follow the upward trend of the market. It is recommended to follow the market trend. [159][161] - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner. It is recommended to go long at low prices and not chase the high price. [162][163][164] - **Glass**: The price of glass is affected by macro - sentiment and is expected to be strong in an oscillating manner, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to short at high prices or sell call options. [165][166][167] - **Methanol**: The price of methanol is expected to rise strongly due to the geopolitical conflict. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation. [168][169] - **Urea**: The supply of urea is at a high level, and the demand is expected to start. The price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to hold long positions. [170][173] - **Pulp**: The price of pulp is expected to be strong in the short term, but the market is still in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to go long at low prices and pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict on European pulp supply. [174][175][178] - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory of offset printing paper restricts the price rebound. It is recommended to short at high prices. [179][180] - **Logs**: The supply and demand of logs are both weak, and the price is expected to be supported by cost. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions. [182][183] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to short a small amount of the RU 05 contract and wait and see on the NR 05 contract. [184][185][187] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of tires has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to reduce the holding of the BR04 contract and hold long positions in the BR 05 contract. [188][189][191]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].