Market Overview - US stock market opened slightly lower with the Dow Jones down 0.03%, S&P 500 down 0.02%, and Nasdaq down 0.13% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 0.62%, while Nvidia saw a slight increase of 0.34% [3] Company Highlights - Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drug, semaglutide oral version, received FDA approval, leading to a significant stock increase of 9.5%. The drug is set to launch in the US in early January [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 1.2%, with major Chinese stocks under pressure, including XPeng down over 3.7% and others like NIO, Li Auto, and Bilibili down over 2% [3][4] Cryptocurrency Market - Multiple cryptocurrencies experienced a collective decline, with Bitcoin falling below $87,000, resulting in over 90,000 liquidations globally within 24 hours [9][10] Economic Indicators - The US Commerce Department reported a preliminary estimate showing a 4.3% annualized growth in GDP for Q3, with increases in exports and consumer spending, but declines in investment and imports [10]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 19」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场延续偏强运行。受持续性库存偏紧因素影响，白银挤仓行情持续演绎，伦敦银和沪银 主力合约价格大幅上涨，金价本周震荡为主。美国11月就业人数的增长依然疲软，失业率上升，表明在10月表现 异常疲弱之后，劳动力市场的降温态势持续。11月核心CPI创下2021年初以来最慢增速，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%， 显著低于市场预期。受前期美政府停摆影响，10月CPI报告未能公布，本次CPI数据的可靠性亦受到市场质疑。美 联储理事沃勒最新表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有50至100个基点的降息空间。但基于当前的 经济前景，美联储无需采取激烈的行动。此前美联储威廉姆斯表示，预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%，劳 动力市场风险已上升，而通胀风险已缓解。特朗普表示下一任美联储主席提名人选即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支 持"大幅"降低利率。在关税局势趋缓的背景下，核心通胀接近目标区间为后续降息做铺垫，就 ...

关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场整体偏强运行。联储降息如期兑现，在全球白银实物库存持续紧缺引起的挤仓以及美 联储降息预期提振下，银价续创历史新高，金价走势较为震荡，金银比继续向历史均值收敛。鲍威尔表示货币政 策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据逐次会议决策。当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回 落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向 中性过渡。"美联储传声筒"尼克表示，尽管美联储已连续三次会议决定降息，但其内部对于应更担忧通胀还是 就业市场，存在"不同寻常的分歧"。这种分歧导致官员们暗示，继续降息的意愿目前并不高。整体而言，本次 美联储的降息操作略显鹰派，2026年FOMC或仅展开一次25基点的降息操作，鲍威尔反复强 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a stable performance following the recent interest rate decision, with gold prices holding steady and silver maintaining an upward trend despite earlier record highs being retraced [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the main interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.50%—3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. - The policy statement highlighted that inflation may remain sticky, indicating no urgency for further rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Investors are focusing on the upcoming press conference, as the chairman's guidance on future policy paths will directly influence market pricing of the macro environment [1][4]. - The external market conditions include a weakening US dollar index, stable crude oil prices around $58.50 per barrel, and a 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.166%, all of which are key variables affecting precious metal volatility [1][4]. Market Structure - The gold market operates mainly through spot and futures mechanisms, with the spot market reflecting immediate transaction prices and the futures market locking in future delivery prices [2][4]. - Market liquidity tends to concentrate on the most active contracts, with December gold futures currently being the most frequently traded [2][4]. Technical Analysis - For February gold, the bullish target remains to break and close above $4433.00, while bears aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4100.00 [2][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are at $4251.70 and $4285.00, with support levels at $4197.80 and $4150.00, resulting in a market strength score of 7.0 [2][5]. - In silver, the March contract has broken upward through a "bull flag" pattern, indicating a bullish technical structure, with the next target for bulls being to surpass the $65.00 resistance [2][5]. - Short-term resistance for silver is at $62.14 and $63.00, while support is at $60.00 and $59.00, with a strength score of 9.5, indicating significant bullish advantage [2][5]. Overall Market Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to continue oscillating around macro policy expectations and technical ranges, with investors advised to monitor policy signals and technical positions to better navigate potential opportunities in a volatile market [3][5].

Group 1 - Gold prices have retreated to above $4200, attempting to hold support levels between $4170 and $4180 but rebounding above $4200 after losing momentum [1][3] - If gold prices close above $4250, they may advance towards recent resistance levels of $4370-$4380 [3] - Silver is under pressure as traders took profits after failing to break through resistance levels of $58.60-$58.80, with a potential drop below $56.50 opening the path to test support levels of $52.60-$52.80 [6] Group 2 - Platinum is losing momentum as traders focus on silver market performance, with a potential drop below $1620 leading to a move towards the 50-day moving average at $1591 [9] - A drop below the 50-day moving average could push platinum towards support levels of $1520-$1530 [9] - As of December 4, the iShares Silver Trust held 16,094.45 tons of silver, an increase of 95.9 tons from the previous trading day, while the SPDR Gold Trust held 1,050.58 tons of gold, an increase of 4 tons [9]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX copper futures increased by 1.47% to $5.4525 per pound, with a weekly gain of 3.37% [1] - Spot platinum decreased by 0.09% to $1644.59 per ounce, resulting in a weekly decline of 1.58% [1] - Spot palladium rose by 0.41% to $1461.26 per ounce, achieving a weekly increase of 0.79% [1] Summary by Category - **Copper Market** - COMEX copper futures rose by 1.47% to $5.4525 per pound [1] - Weekly increase in copper prices was 3.37% [1] - **Platinum Market** - Spot platinum price fell by 0.09% to $1644.59 per ounce [1] - Weekly decline in platinum prices was 1.58% [1] - **Palladium Market** - Spot palladium price increased by 0.41% to $1461.26 per ounce [1] - Weekly gain in palladium prices was 0.79% [1]

12月5日，近期贵金属市场呈现出温和分化的走势，黄金小幅上涨而白银略有回落。NCE平台认为，这 种分化体现了市场参与者在不同品种上的操作偏好与风险管理策略。黄金的温和上涨主要受到技术性买 盘推动，多头试图在关键支撑位附近建立仓位，而白银的回落则反映出短线获利了结的需求，同时也是 长期上升趋势中的正常调整。NCE平台表示，当前市场情绪整体偏稳，投资者对于贵金属的多空观点各 有侧重，短期波动性仍然存在。 力。然而，NCE平台认为，这种压力并未改变整体货币政策预期，美联储下周可能继续执行适度降息的 计划，为贵金属提供潜在的支撑。与此同时，美元指数保持稳定，国际原油价格小幅上行，而10年期美 债收益率仍处于相对高位，这些外部因素共同影响着贵金属的短期波动。 从市场结构来看，黄金和白银的价格形成机制各具特点。现货市场提供即时交割价格，而期货市场则决 定未来交割的预期价格。NCE平台认为，年底临近，交易活跃度和流动性变化对期货市场尤为关键，目 前12月黄金期货成为最受关注的交易品种。技术分析显示，黄金多头若能够突破历史高位，将进一步确 认上行趋势，而空头在关键支撑位附近仍存在一定防守压力。这表明市场短期内可能以震荡上行为 ...

周三（12月3日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金大致持平，报4207.07美元/盎司，日内呈现出M形走势，交投于 4241.50-4194.65美元区间。 纽约证交所ARCA金矿开采商指数收跌0.47%，报2278.38点，美股开盘之前微幅上涨，随后快速走高至 2321.09点——短时呈现出M形走势。 现货白银大致持平，报58.4880美元/盎司，日内交投于58.9789-57.5578美元区间。 COMEX黄金期货涨0.44%，报4239.30美元/盎司，交投于4273.30-4225.10美元区间。 费城金银指数收跌0.35%，报318.01点。 COMEX白银期货涨0.49%，报58.990美元/盎司，日内交投于58.210-59.655美元区间。 COMEX铜期货涨2.87%，报5.3935美元/磅，全天处于上涨状态，北京时间00：00过后高位持稳。 现货铂金涨1.98%，现货钯金跌0.40%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：丁文武 周三（12月3日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金大致持平，报4207.07美元/盎司，日内呈现出M形走势，交投于 4241.50-4194.65美元区间。 COMEX黄金期货 ...

Core Insights - International precious metals futures experienced a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures increasing by 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce [1] - Spot silver prices reached a historic high, surpassing $58 per ounce for the first time, peaking at $58.84, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 100%, significantly outperforming gold [1] - COMEX silver futures traded above $59 per ounce for the first time, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract hit a new high of 13766 yuan per kilogram [1] - A report indicated that silver prices surged due to supply shortages exacerbated by trading interruptions, with a previous trading day seeing a price increase of up to 6% [1] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are contributing to a decline in the dollar, while the EU's energy interconnectivity plan is boosting industrial demand [3] - Geopolitical factors are also supporting the precious metals market, with silver standing out due to its dual role as both a financial and industrial asset [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut has significantly increased, and the precious metals market has maintained a strong performance. The "short squeeze" in the silver market has intensified, driving the recent accelerated rise in silver prices. The slowdown in the US core PPI growth rate and the cooling of the employment market have boosted market sentiment. Although geopolitical risks have eased to some extent, the mainstream market expectation of a rate cut in December is likely to continue to boost market bullish sentiment. The tight inventory of physical silver may exacerbate the short - squeeze in the short term. Any macro data or news falling short of expectations may amplify the callback risk in the precious metals market. In the long - term, the US debt pressure makes gold an attractive asset, and central bank gold purchases provide structural support for gold prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 963.28 yuan/gram, up 9.4 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 13,278 yuan/kilogram, up 551 yuan. The trading volume of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 342,979 lots, up 153,266 lots; the trading volume of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 2,703,384 lots, up 1,072,037 lots. The position of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 205,325 lots, up 3,196 lots; the position of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 38,724 lots, down 8,486 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Gold was 90,873 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Silver was 573,702 kilograms, up 14,820 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 958.46 yuan/gram, up 10.31 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,303 yuan, up 685 yuan [2] 3.3 ETF and CFTC Data - The SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,045.43 tons, unchanged; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15,610.54 tons, up 28.21 tons. The non - commercial net long position of gold in CFTC was 203,916 contracts; the non - commercial net long position of silver in CFTC was 43,181 contracts, down 3,036 contracts [2] 3.4 Supply and Demand - The total quarterly supply of gold was 1,313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold was 1,257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] 3.5 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.44, down 0.12; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.79%, up 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 16.35, down 0.86; the CBOE gold volatility index was 22.87, up 0.92. The ratio of S&P 500 to gold price was 1.63, down 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 77.74, down 0.05 [2] 3.6 Industry News - US Secretary of State Rubio said the US - Ukraine talks were "productive". White House official Kevin Hassett hinted that Trump might name the next Fed chair by the end of the year. Goldman Sachs said the Fed would cut interest rates at the December 9 - 10 meeting, with a market - priced probability of about 85% - 86% for a 25 - basis - point cut. According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in December was 87.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by January next year was 67.5% [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - US November ISM Manufacturing PMI on December 1st, US JOLTS job openings data on December 2nd, US ADP private sector employment data on December 3rd, and US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]