【市场表现】 昨日期债延续窄幅震荡。短期看，一方面期债下跌的风险有限，当前仍处在逆周期政策周期中，资金面 持续收紧的可能性小，MLF增量续作也体现了央行对资金面的呵护，LPR与存款利率双调降，中期广谱 利率处于下行周期中；另一方面在关税压力缓释的背景下，当下央行进一步引导资金利率下行的概率也 不高，还需要观察政策后效和出口动向，目前整体或以稳为主，从期限利差的角度来看长债目前吸引力 也相对有限。短期信息空窗期，整体债市或进入震荡阶段，等待基本面指引。目前预计，短期10年期国 债利率可能在1.65%-1.7%区间波动，30年国债利率可能在1.85%-1.95%区间波动。单边策略上建议观望 为主，关注高频经济数据和资金面动态。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规定，不得刊载或转发。 国债期货收盘涨跌不一，30年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations and their implications for the global economy, particularly focusing on the potential for economic recovery and investment opportunities in various sectors. Group 1: Trade Relations and Economic Impact - The recent US-China Geneva trade talks resulted in significant tariff reductions, alleviating extreme scenarios in bilateral trade and leading to a short-term boost in exports [1][8][9] - The effective tariff rate for the US has decreased from 23% to 13%, and for China, it has dropped to 31.8%, which is expected to lower recession risks in the US economy [8][9] - High-frequency shipping data indicates a recovery trend, suggesting a potential surge in exports from China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on the US market [20][21] Group 2: Economic Growth Drivers - The economic growth in early 2025 has been primarily driven by exports and investments in new sectors, with Q1 export delivery value increasing by 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Investment in equipment and appliances saw quarterly growth rates of 19.0% and 19.3%, respectively, contributing to economic stability [1] - Despite the positive export outlook, challenges remain in real estate, consumer spending, local investment, and price stability, which need to be addressed for sustained growth [2][3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following the trade talks, global stock markets exhibited a "risk-on" sentiment, with the Nasdaq leading asset classes, and the VIX index falling below 20 [4][5] - A-shares shifted focus to fundamental recovery expectations, policy observation, and export logic, with the overall market showing resilience after previous tariff-related declines [7] - The performance of various sectors varied, with over 60% of industries recording positive returns, particularly in beauty care, non-banking financials, and automotive sectors [7] Group 4: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The article highlights the need for adjustments in monetary policy frameworks to address higher inflation volatility and supply shocks, as indicated by recent comments from the Federal Reserve [10][11] - The anticipated changes in the Fed's inflation targeting strategy may influence future economic conditions and investment strategies [11] Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - Industries with high export dependence on the US, such as electronics and automotive parts, are expected to benefit from the short-term "export rush" following tariff reductions [21] - The article notes that industrial product prices are stabilizing, while food prices are experiencing mixed trends, indicating a complex inflationary environment [22] Group 6: Infrastructure and Investment Trends - The government is increasing support for urban renewal projects, which may enhance infrastructure investment and stimulate economic activity [23][24] - Recent data shows improvements in funding availability for construction projects, particularly in non-residential sectors, indicating a positive trend for infrastructure development [18]

Market Overview - During the week of May 5 to May 9, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 1.92%, 2.00%, and 3.27% respectively. The defense and military industry led the gains with an increase of 6.33% [6] - The current PE (TTM) for CSI 300 is 12.44 times, with a risk premium of 6.40%, which is above one standard deviation. The ChiNext Index has a PE (TTM) of 30.25, below one negative standard deviation [6] Economic Policies - On May 7, the State Council held a press conference announcing a comprehensive financial policy package, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates. Additionally, a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and pension relending" program was established [6] - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for moderately loose monetary policy in its first-quarter monetary policy report, highlighting that boosting consumption is key to expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth [6] Trade Performance - In the first four months of this year, China's total goods trade value reached 14.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. In April alone, the trade value was 3.84 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year [6] - Exports in April amounted to 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports were 1.57 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.8% [6] Market Sentiment - The recent financial policies have effectively boosted market confidence, with market indices recovering from the impacts of tariff shocks. However, the high tariff barriers may gradually affect the real economy, and the latest CPI and PPI data indicate ongoing risks of endogenous deflation [6] - The report anticipates that the A-share market will maintain wide fluctuations with a focus on structural trends, particularly favoring sectors like technology and military in the medium term [6] Valuation Analysis - In terms of valuation, sectors such as food and beverage, agriculture, and forestry are at historical low PE levels, while real estate, computers, and steel are at historical high PE levels. For PB valuation, agriculture, construction materials, and oil and gas are at historical lows [28][30] - The report includes detailed tables showing the current PE and PB valuations of various sectors, indicating their positions within the historical percentiles over the past decade [29][30]

Overview of A-shares 2024 Annual Report and 2025 Q1 - The overall performance of A-shares in 2024 did not improve, while the performance in 2025 Q1 showed significant improvement, although revenue recovery was slow [9][10] - The cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -2.3%/-12.9%, a decline from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative net profit growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was 3.6%/4.2%, a substantial increase of 5.8/17.1 percentage points compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Revenue and Performance Growth Overview - The cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial in 2024 was -0.9%/-1.0%, showing slight improvement from 2024 Q3 [10] - In 2025 Q1, the cumulative revenue growth rate for all A-shares/non-financial was -0.7%/-0.7%, indicating a minor recovery compared to the 2024 annual report [10][12] Profitability Analysis - The return on equity (ROE) for all A non-financial in 2025 Q1 was 6.68%, slightly down from 6.70% in 2024 Q4, indicating a continued bottoming process [14] - The net profit margin showed a low recovery, while asset turnover and debt ratio continued to decline, reflecting a fragile recovery trend [14][20] Industry Performance Overview - Profitability is shifting towards midstream and technology sectors, with a decline in profit share from financial and upstream sectors [28] - The recovery in consumer profitability is mainly driven by the agricultural and forestry sectors, while midstream manufacturing and technology sectors are showing significant recovery trends [28] Contribution to Profitability - The improvement in profitability is attributed to the "two new" policies and base effect, with significant contributions from electronics, home appliances, and machinery sectors [35] - The real estate sector showed a notable reduction in losses, contributing positively to the overall performance in 2025 Q1 [35][38] Sector Focus - The technology manufacturing sector is highlighted for its revenue growth indicators, with a focus on penetration rates [24] - Key sectors with positive revenue growth in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1 include computers, electronics, machinery, automobiles, and communications [24][28] Future Outlook - The performance growth rhythm for all A non-financial in 2025 is expected to present a "V" shape, with a potential cumulative profit growth rate of -2.3% under neutral assumptions [22][24] - The government’s commitment to GDP targets and sufficient counter-cyclical policy reserves are expected to support a recovery in profitability [22][24]

关税影响"验证期"的投资思路 20250507 摘要 • 为应对关税冲击，中国推出一揽子金融政策以稳定市场和预期，但政策对 冲效果有待观察，需关注城市更新等逆周期政策及配套融资。 • 全球经济增长预期普遍下调，美国消费者信心指数和企业雇佣指数创新低， 但中美流动性充裕支撑黄金、白银等金融属性大宗商品价格。 • 能源板块因 OPEC 成员国竞相增产面临供给侧压力，价格可能螺旋下跌； 全球制造业周期放缓影响未完全显现，需规避受关税冲击的工业品。 • 全球去美元趋势下，亚洲货币被低估，美国追求贸易平衡或导致美元资产 配置下行，黄金作为避险资产配置价值提升。 • 央行通过降准降息等措施稳市场，重点支持科技创新、产业升级、资本市 场、消费及房地产市场，货币政策先行推动资产价格上升。 • 铜价因供给紧张和贸易失衡表现强劲，但若美国关税落地或非美地区开工 率下降，铜价可能下跌，上行空间有限，下行风险积聚。 • 能源市场背景下降，但天然气、核电及海外电力表现优于预期，国内核电 重启加速，中国铀矿需求庞大，将显著拉动铀矿价格及产能。 Q&A 当前宏观局势和周期品投资策略如何应对特朗普政府的关税政策变化？ 当前宏观局势较为混沌， ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 重要点评 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？——20250504 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 06 日 浙商早知道 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 浙商早报 1 重要点评 1.1 【浙商银行 梁凤洁/徐安妮/陈建宇/周源】银行 行业深度：Q1 财报揭示哪些经营线索？—— 20250504 1、主要事件 25Q1 银行业绩披露 2、简要点评 业绩概览：25Q1 上市银行业绩符合预期。整体来看，25Q1 上市行营收利润增速环比承压，一方面是 LPR 降息滞后性影响，另一方面是债市调整对营收形成拖累。25Q1 上市银行营收、利润同比-1.7%、-1.2%，增速 较 24A 回落 1.8pc、3.5pc。背后驱动因素来看， 25Q1 息差对营收拖累边际改善，税收对利润贡献增强，成本 拖累改善；非息增长放缓拖累营收，减 ...

价格是市场经济中很重要的信号，企业看到价格上升才会生产或扩大生产。那么为什么有企业愿意"以价换量"，降价也要生产呢？微观经济学中有个和宏 观领域相似的场景：面对产品售价持续走低，企业非但不缩减生产，反而选择"逆周期扩产"。这种看似矛盾的行为背后，暗含精密的成本核算逻辑。一些 很"卷"的企业甚至会一边降价，一边扩大生产。此时企业的经营目标已不是"利润最大化"，而是"亏损最小化"。经济运行中，很多工业和制造业部门的企 业都有"以价换量"的共同特征，即通过价格调整策略换取市场份额。这种行为虽能维系企业生存，但持续的价格下行可能会削弱市场信心。 回望日本经济史，1990年房地产市场的剧烈调整之后，实际GDP表现稳定但GDP平减指数持续下行，这种经济指标的"剪刀差"将决策者推向两难境地：当 实际GDP达标与价格持续低迷同时存在，政策该何去何从？面对这种特殊的经济形态，可能会有两种解决办法。一种观点是维持现有政策力度，守住实际 GDP就是守住经济基本盘；另一种观点是必须重视名义GDP收缩的现实，主张采取更积极的刺激政策。 当年日本在房地产调整后的前十年，日本央行尚未建立明确的价格调控机制。只要实际GDP保持正增长，便视为 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the Trump administration's tariff increases on the Chinese economy and the subsequent policy responses from the Chinese government. The focus is on the economic challenges faced by China, including the effects of tariffs, the state of the real estate market, and the overall economic recovery trajectory. Key Points and Arguments Economic Impact of Tariffs - The new round of tariffs implemented on April 1, 2025, exceeded market expectations, prompting the Chinese government to consider additional fiscal measures such as special bonds and stimulus policies for consumption, infrastructure investment, and real estate [1][2][21] - China's GDP growth for Q1 2025 was reported at 5.4%, with a rebound in domestic demand and a 6.9% increase in exports, although there are concerns about potential downward pressure on exports in Q2 [1][11] - The fiscal budget deficit rate has been increased to prepare for declining external demand, with broader government financing also rising by 1.5 percentage points [1][12] Macroeconomic Policy Responses - The Chinese government is expected to adopt a cautious approach to macroeconomic policy, implementing measures gradually rather than launching a comprehensive stimulus package due to uncertainties regarding the impact of tariffs on trade and the economy [2][4][21] - Monetary policy may become more flexible, with potential interest rate cuts depending on actual economic data, particularly if export performance declines significantly [1][13][14] Long-term Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is currently in a phase of "restorative growth," which is characterized by slower recovery rather than a rapid rebound. This is attributed to the damage to balance sheets across households, businesses, and local governments due to the pandemic and real estate market adjustments [3][5][8][22] - The expectation is that the economic recovery will take time, and there should be no over-optimism regarding a quick return to traditional growth rates [5][22][23] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Shaanxi province is highlighted as experiencing a delayed adjustment, with prices peaking in June 2024 before beginning to decline. This indicates that the impact of real estate market corrections is still unfolding in central and western regions of China [6] U.S.-China Economic Competition - The intensifying economic competition between the U.S. and China, particularly since Trump's first term, has created significant uncertainty for China's export-oriented sectors, complicating investment decisions [7][8] Gold Market Insights - Recent increases in gold prices are attributed to a weaker dollar and adjustments in market confidence towards the dollar. However, potential short-term risks for gold prices include geopolitical risk premium adjustments and profit-taking [15][19][20] Other Important Considerations - The records emphasize the limited effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in the short term, suggesting that while policies can stabilize the economy, they are unlikely to lead to a traditional recovery [10][23] - The records also note that the U.S. Federal Reserve's actions are influenced by various factors, including retail sales data and unemployment trends, which may affect global economic conditions and, consequently, China's economic outlook [16][17]

央广网北京4月23日消息（记者 樊瑞）21日下午，中国金融四十人论坛（下称CF40）发布2025年第一季度宏观政策报告。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世 界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，在扩大消费的政策选择与排序中，最优先和最见成效的是逆周期政策，可带动全社会收入和消费在短期内显著增加。 降低政策利率和扩大公共投资是逆周期政策的重点内容。 对于降准降息将在何时落地，张斌在接受央广财经记者提问时表示，"央行强调适时降准降息，具体要看经济数据还有中央统一部署。我觉得不会太远。" 推进促消费一揽子方案循序落实 张斌指出，在当下的国内外环境下，提振消费的重要性得到凸显。张斌介绍，过去二十年中国居民消费率经历"下降—上升—再下降"的三阶段波动，主要由 消费倾向变化与初次分配收入占比变化驱动。消费率变化背后的主导因素是工业化潮起带来2000-2010年的消费率下降，潮落带来2010年以后的消费率上 升，疫情带来短暂的消费率再次下降但并不改变消费率上升趋势。 CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌 提振消费是扩大内需、做大做强国内大循环的重中之重。3月16日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消 ...

Group 1 - Jianxin Fund plans to invest at least 180 million yuan in its equity public products, having already invested 173 million yuan from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 [1] - Jianxin Fund anticipates that external pressures will enhance the domestic policy logic of "taking the initiative," with expectations for a release of counter-cyclical policies to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [1] Group 2 - Multiple Hong Kong Stock Connect ETFs experienced significant trading activity during the market closure, with some ETFs seeing turnover rates exceeding 900% [2] - The Hang Seng Stock Connect ETF recorded a trading volume of 374 million yuan on April 18, a 76-fold increase from the previous trading day [2] - Due to the surge in ETF prices, premium rates have also increased, prompting several fund companies to issue risk warning announcements [2] Group 3 - Several QDII funds have significantly reduced their holdings in US stocks while increasing their positions in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with one fund's US stock allocation dropping from 52.38% to 24.22% [3] - The same fund increased its Hong Kong stock allocation from 20.48% to 54.94% [3] Group 4 - The offline subscription for Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT reached a record high, with a total subscription amount 222.64 times the initial offering [4] - The previous record was held by the Hui Tian Fu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT, which had a subscription rate of 180.74 times [4] Group 5 - E Fund's consumer sector fund increased its allocation to liquor stocks, viewing it as a high-yield bond with domestic demand upside [5] - The fund's top ten holdings include Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, with adjustments made in the automotive sector [5][6] Group 6 - Fund manager Guo Lan reduced holdings in Xinlitai, with the number of shares held decreasing from 16.23 million to 14.07 million [7] - Xinlitai is an innovative pharmaceutical company listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [7] Group 7 - Fund manager Fu Pengbo slightly increased holdings in Furuisi, with shares rising from 672.96 million to 684.96 million [8] - Furuisi focuses on liver disease treatment and is listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [8] Group 8 - On April 22, the market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.25% while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index fell by 0.36% and 0.82%, respectively [9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 48.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] Group 9 - Hong Kong innovative drug-related ETFs saw strong performance, with some rising by as much as 5.77% [10] - Analysts suggest that the pharmaceutical sector may attract market funds due to previous declines and cheap valuations, with significant investment opportunities expected in innovative and generic drugs [10]