广发宏观周度述评（第11期） 广发宏观周度述评（第1-10期，复盘必读） 内容 第一， 如何理解后续政策节奏？ 4月初，美国对全球所谓"对等关税"落地，此后对华关税又持续升温。外需承压的背景下，"内需对冲外需"成为必然。人民日报 [1]《集中精力办好自己的事》亦明确指出"未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地，随时可以出台；财政政策已明确要加大支出强 度、加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张空间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费"。金融市场对上述逆周期政策的预期亦显著升温。 应如何理解本轮政策节奏和后续政策落地时机？对此我们有几点理解： 一是外部贸易环境仍在继续变化的过程中。从特朗普政府相关政策表述来看，本轮逆全球化关税可能包括基础关税、对等关税、报复性关税、特定行业关税，后一 部分尚未落地。再加上美国关税政策反复无常，整体不确定性较大；非美区域的贸易条件亦需要继续观察。 二是在面对内外部环境变化时，往往会有一个"影响评估-政策定调-政策出台"的经验过程。比如2018年二季度美国对华关税落地，9月起制造业PMI放缓明显，四 季度货币政策取消"总闸门"的提法。再比如202 ...

智通财经4月9日电，在全球资本市场震荡加剧的当下，公私募机构坚定看好中国资产。4月8日晚，博时 基金、鹏扬基金等公募基金公司公告称，基于对中国资本市场长期健康稳定发展的信心，将于近日运用 固有资金投资各自旗下权益类基金。多家知名私募机构也以行动表达对于后市的看好。4月8日上午，进 化论资产CEO、首席投资官王一平在社交平台发文称自己组合已满仓。在公私募机构人士看来，尽管全 球基本面风险增加，但国内逆周期政策已有储备，后续投资更重要的逻辑在于"以内为主"，科技、医 药、消费等板块值得重点关注。 看准低吸机会 公私募果断出手自购加仓 ...

Group 1 - The total profit of FOF funds exceeded 5.11 billion yuan in the previous year, with mixed FOFs showing the best overall profit of 2.56 billion yuan [2][5] - The top ten fund managers' FOF funds all reported positive total profits, with Xingzheng Global Fund leading at 1.00 billion yuan [2][3] - The management fees for the top ten fund managers' FOF funds decreased to 428 million yuan, down from 598 million yuan in the same period last year [2][5] Group 2 - The structure of FOF fund holders has changed, with individual investors holding 117.43 billion units, a decrease of 26.87 billion units from last year [5] - Despite the decline in individual holdings, the number of FOF funds launched in 2024 has increased to 17, compared to 10 in the same period last year [5] - The average weekly return of mixed FOFs was limited to a decline of only 0.06% amidst a broader market adjustment [6] Group 3 - The A-share market continued its adjustment trend, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 1.1368 trillion yuan [6] - The performance of various sectors showed mixed results, with the electricity and public utilities, banking, and transportation sectors performing well, while the non-ferrous metals sector declined by 2.97% [7] - The top-performing FOF product last week was Qianhai Kaiyuan Yuze, with a weekly return of 0.91% [6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the pressure on CPI due to insufficient consumer demand, predicting a low CPI in the first three quarters of 2025, with a significant rebound expected in Q4 2025 [1][6]. Group 1: CPI Core Parameters - Parameter 1: Food - Pork and beef are expected to face downward price pressure in 2025, with pork prices projected to drop from 17 CNY/kg in 2024 to around 15 CNY/kg, shifting from a positive to a negative contribution to CPI [2]. - Parameter 2: Oil - Oil prices are under downward pressure due to OPEC+ production increases and a weakening U.S. economy, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall to the range of 70-75 USD/barrel in 2025, negatively impacting CPI [3]. - Parameter 3: Core Goods - The "old-for-new" policy is not expected to suppress core goods CPI, which is anticipated to rise moderately supported by further consumption promotion policies [4]. - Parameter 4: Core Services - The stabilization of rental prices is crucial, as rental prices have negatively impacted CPI since 2022, with a projected drag of approximately 0.03 percentage points in 2024 [5]. Group 2: CPI Forecasts - In a neutral scenario, the estimated CPI year-on-year averages for Q1 to Q4 of 2025 are -0.1%, -0.3%, -0.2%, and 0.8%, respectively, indicating a notable recovery in Q4 [6]. Group 3: Macro Economic Tracking - Recent PMI data shows a recovery compared to the previous month, but remains below the five-year average, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment, while non-manufacturing sectors have also seen a decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Ping An Money Market Fund's performance, management, and financial metrics for the year 2024, highlighting its focus on risk control and liquidity management while striving for stable returns. Group 1: Fund Overview - Fund Name: Ping An Money Market Fund [1] - Fund Manager: Ping An Fund Management Co., Ltd. [1] - Fund Custodian: Ping An Bank Co., Ltd. [1] - Fund Operation Type: Contractual open-end [1] - Fund Contract Effective Date: December 7, 2016 [1] - Total Fund Shares at Year-End: 14,833,343,541.23 shares [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Total Net Asset Value at Year-End: 7,371.89 million RMB [2] - Fund Share Net Value at Year-End: 1.0000 [2] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market A: 1.8625% [12] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market C: 1.6591% [3] - Annualized Yield for Ping An Money Market D: 0.4369% [12] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investment Objective: To achieve stable returns exceeding the performance benchmark while strictly controlling investment risks and maintaining high liquidity [1] - Investment Strategy: Adjusting the fund's investment portfolio based on predictions of short-term interest rate changes, with a focus on qualitative and quantitative analysis of various investment types [1] Group 4: Management and Compliance - Management Company Established: January 7, 2011, with a registered capital of 1.3 billion RMB [4] - Total Public Fund Management: 215 funds with total assets under management of approximately 637.1 billion RMB as of December 31, 2024 [4] - Compliance with Regulations: The fund management strictly adheres to relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the protection of fund holders' interests [14][16] Group 5: Audit and Custody - Auditor: Ernst & Young Hua Ming [17] - Audit Opinion: Standard unqualified opinion on the financial statements [17] - Custodian's Compliance: The custodian, Ping An Bank, has fulfilled its duties without harming the interests of fund holders [16]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 招商蛇口 (001979.SZ) due to its focus on core cities and stable sales ranking [41][42]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment shows a moderate recovery in social consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% in retail sales for January-February 2025, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [26]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in sales, with a reported decrease of 5.1% in sales area for January-February 2025, compared to a 12.9% decline for the entire year of 2024 [31]. - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a rebound in online sales for liquor, with a 32.2% year-on-year increase in sales for February 2025, highlighting a recovery in consumer preferences [35]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - The report discusses the economic impact of fertility subsidies, estimating that if implemented nationwide, these subsidies could lead to an increase in newborns by approximately 32,000 to 76,000 in the first year, potentially boosting GDP by 0.08%-0.09% annually [6][7]. Retail Sector - The retail sector's total sales reached 83,731 billion yuan in January-February 2025, with urban and rural sales growing by 3.8% and 4.6% respectively [26][27]. - Online retail sales grew by 7.3%, with physical goods sales increasing by 5.0%, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [28]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that the sales area for commercial housing decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous periods, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market [31][32]. - New housing starts fell by 29.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the construction sector [32][33]. Food and Beverage Sector - The online sales of liquor reached 1.62 billion yuan in February 2025, with a significant increase in average prices, suggesting a shift towards premium products [35][36]. - The report highlights a decline in online sales for snack foods, with a 17.3% year-on-year decrease, indicating challenges in this segment [37]. Company-Specific Insights - 招商蛇口 reported a revenue increase of 2.25% year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 36.09% due to high land cost impairments [41][42]. - 丘钛科技 (01478.HK) has revised its profit forecast upwards for 2025, anticipating a net profit of 670 million yuan, driven by improvements in gross margins and operational efficiencies [46][47]. - 德赛西威 (002920.SZ) achieved a revenue growth of 26.06% year-on-year, with a strong performance in its intelligent driving segment, indicating robust demand in the automotive sector [50][51].

Core Viewpoint - The value bottom of the A-share market has formed despite external challenges such as tariff disputes and technological blockades, with opportunities for industrial upgrades, institutional reforms, and domestic demand recovery emerging in the current environment [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-share Market Value - The A-share market has shown structural trends driven by breakthroughs in the technology sector, with fields such as computers, machinery, automotive, and electronics leading the market [2]. - China's manufacturing value-added has ranked first globally for 15 consecutive years, with traditional industries like new energy expanding their technological barriers [2][3]. - The capital market is transitioning from a "financing-oriented" approach to an "investment win-win" model, supported by regulatory measures that protect investor interests [3]. Group 2: Long-term Research Strategy - The company emphasizes a long-term approach in its research business, focusing on cultivating internal values rather than recruiting well-known analysts from the industry [4][5]. - The success of the research team is attributed to the internal development of talent, with 25 teams recognized in the "2024 Securities Times Best Analyst Selection," achieving record scores [4][5]. Group 3: Economic Policy Insights - The chief economist highlighted that real estate and prices may still present significant discrepancies in expectations, indicating that counter-cyclical policies are increasingly necessary [6]. - The focus of these policies will significantly impact their execution and effectiveness, depending on whether the emphasis is on quantity or price [6].