宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 28 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货5月27日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,862.2 | 1,815.0 | 1,782.0 | 1,795.7 | -80.2 | -4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The extension of US - EU tariffs to July has led to high - level oscillations in the overall market, in line with the daily report's expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and wait for correction opportunities [1]. - Tariffs have become a means in trade negotiations, adding significant uncertainties to future shipping trends. While the easing of the China - US trade war may boost the digestion of US - bound shipping capacity in 90 days, price wars among alliances cannot be avoided. Attention should be paid to the US - bound shipping capacity allocation within 90 days and the feedback of terminal demand under the easing of tariff policies [3]. - In the short - term, due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. It is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts if participating. Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large, so a positive arbitrage structure is adopted for now. In the long - term, it is recommended to take profits on rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Indexes - **May 12th**: The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1265.30 points, down 2.9% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1446.36 points, down 0.6% from the previous period [2]. - **May 23rd**: The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1106.08 points, up 9.02% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 783.58 points, up 4.35% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1894.63 points, up 4.50% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1586.12 points, up 106.73 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1317 USD/TEU, up 14.12% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 3275 USD/FEU, up 5.95% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1107.40 points, up 0.2% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1392.61 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 908.14 points, up 3.6% from the previous period [2]. 3.2 Economic Data - **Eurozone**: In May, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 49.4, a 33 - month high; in April, the preliminary service PMI was 49.7 (expected 50.5), and the comprehensive PMI was 50.1 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.9). The April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 (expected - 10, previous value - 2.9) [2]. - **China**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin China manufacturing PMI was 51.2, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reaching a four - month high [2]. - **US**: In April, the preliminary S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 50.7 (expected 49.1, March final value 50.2); the preliminary service PMI was 51.4 (expected 52.8, March final value 54.4); the preliminary comprehensive PMI was 51.2 (expected 52.2, March final value 53.5) [3]. 3.3 Futures Market - On May 23rd, the main contract 2508 closed at 2224.9, up 2.73%. The trading volume was 74,200 lots, and the open interest was 49,200 lots, with a reduction of 2478 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The freight rates online in early June are relatively firm, which supports the market to some extent. However, due to the stable cargo volume in the spot market, the market may decline after the peak US - bound shipping season, suppressing the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the overall market fluctuates significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [3]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: Due to the volatile external policies, it is difficult to operate. If participating in each contract, it is recommended to focus on medium - to - long - term contracts [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Under the background of tariff easing, the 90 - day exemption will lead to a near - strong and far - weak freight rate pattern, but the window period is short and the fluctuations are large. For now, a positive arbitrage structure is adopted [4]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for each contract, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then try to go long on freight rate rebounds [4]. 3.6 Contract Rules - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [4].

月间升贴水 EC2506/2508 260% 120% 110% 210% 100% 110% 60% EC2508/2510 cav-nam - 2024 (绕行后) average(正常年份) — average(正常年份) — — 2024 (绕行后) EC2510/2512 EC2506/2510 120% 110% 200% 100% 150% 90% 80% 100% 70% 50% GO% 2024/12/31 2025/1/31 2025/2/28 2025/3/31 2025/4/30 2024/12/31 2025/1/31 2025/3/31 2025/4/30 2025/2/28 EC2506/2510 nna x-n in average(正常年份) nax-n1in EC2510/2512 - average(正常年份) = = 2024 (绕行后) 船司线上报价结构 (40GP) 船司线上报价结构(折盘面) 5月5日 -- 5月12日 --- 5月16日 --- 5月23日 -5月12日 -- 5月16日 ->- 5月23日 -5月5日 3700 7500 2300 3200 2 ...

2025年5月22日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 欧盟加征小包裹关税, MSK涨价不及预期,盘面宽幅震荡,符合日报预期,已建议冲高止盈,等待回调机会 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 5月12日 | 5月16日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1265.30点，较上期下跌2.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）1014.55点，较上期上涨6.53% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1446.36点，较上期下跌0.6% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 750.91点，较上期下跌0.78% | | 5月16日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1813.08点，较上期上涨23.18% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1479.39点，较上期下跌134.22点 | 5月16日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1154USD/TEU, 较上期下跌0.60% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1104.88点，较上期下跌0.1% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数 ...

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/22 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导致 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基美 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1677,2 | -2.82 | -411.9 | 28893 | | 25907 | 352 | | | EC2508 | | 2121.1 | -6.27 | -855.8 | 100512 | | 53036 | 1266 | | | EC2510 | | 1419.6 | -1.14 | -154.3 | 15589 | | 23921 | -166 | | | EC2512 | | 1573.6 | -1.90 | -308.3 | 1762 | | 4878 | -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1416.8 | -0.99 | -151.5 | 839 | | 2910 | -133 | | | EC2604 | | 1248.0 | -0. ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 21 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货5月20日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,703.4 | 1,720.0 | 1,725.9 | 1,724.8 | 22.5 | 1.3 ...

方正中期期货高级海运和宏观分析师陈臻表示，5月20日，集运指数（欧线）期货价格跳水，主要是由 于现货市场运价涨价预期并不理想，叠加欧盟下调欧元区经济增速预期，引发多头集中平仓离场。 5月以来，集运指数（欧线）期货出现显著反弹，主力合约价格较4月底低点累计最大涨幅超68%，一改 此前的颓势。 业内人士表示，近期，受宏观事件预期改善驱动，美线进出口贸易量回升，现货市场抢运预期改善海运 市场短期运输需求，叠加欧美航线逐渐迎来集装箱发运旺季，集运指数（欧线）期货受到显著提振。此 外，部分船公司宣布上调美线海运费，对于欧线海运费涨价形成利好提振。不过，经历过此前几次涨价 失败后，市场对于最终能否挺价成功存疑，因此不宜对欧线现货运价存在过高预期。 集运指数（欧线）期货触底反弹 文华财经数据显示，5月19日，集运指数（欧线）期货主力2508合约最高触及2419.7点，创下4月1日以 来新高，较4月29日盘中低点1438点累计上涨68.27%。 "近期，受宏观事件预期改善驱动，美线进出口贸易量显著回升，直接改善海运市场短期运输需求。"一 德期货宏观经济分析师车美超表示，目前，集运指数（欧线）期货是海运市场金融衍生品的唯一投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents comprehensive data on EC futures contracts, including prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest. It also provides information on shipping capacity arrangements, recent European line quotes, and relevant news in the shipping industry, such as tariff adjustments and Middle - East situation updates [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - Price and Change: Different EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) have varying closing prices and percentage changes. For example, EC2506 closed at 17722 with a 5.18% increase, while EC2604 closed at 1249.0 with a 0.59% increase [2]. - Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interest also differ among contracts. EC2506 had a trading volume of 71025 and an open interest of 28322, with a decrease of 5885 in open interest [2]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The spreads between different contract months show different trends. For instance, the spread between EC2506 - 2508 was - 615.7, with a day - on - day change of - 20.7 and a week - on - week change of - 184.9 [2]. Shipping Capacity Arrangements - In May and June 2025 (tentatively), the average weekly shipping capacity is 30.3 and 30.5 million TEU respectively. OA added two sailings cancellations in week 23, and PA added one in week 24 [2]. European Line Quotes - MSC's June opening quote is 2640 US dollars. Quotes in the second half of May decreased month - on - month, landing at around 1200 - 1250 points at the end of May. In June, except for MSK, other shipping companies announced price increases, with an average of 3000 US dollars (equivalent to 2050 points on the disk). MSK's Japan - Europe base cabin quotes before June were 1500 US dollars and it recently announced a price increase for the local line freight [3]. Shipping News - Tariff Adjustment: Starting from May 14 for 90 days, the US tariff rate on China will drop from 145% to 30%, and China's tariff rate on the US will drop from 125% to 10%. Additionally, a 24% reciprocal tariff will be exempted for 90 days. The US also adjusted the ad - valorem tariff rate for small parcels worth less than 800 US dollars from 120% to 54% and maintained a 100 - dollar specific tariff per item [4][5]. - Middle - East Situation: Hamas officials stated that reports of releasing Israeli detainees in exchange for a two - month cease - fire were false. As of May 19, cease - fire negotiations had made no progress, with differences between Israel and Hamas on the terms of releasing detainees [5]. Shipping Indexes - Multiple shipping indexes are presented, including SCFI, CCFI, NCFI, TCI, FBX11, WCI, and XSI - C. Their values, changes, and historical trends are shown. For example, the SCFI on May 16 was 1154 US dollars/TEU, with a 0.60% decrease from the previous period [2].

| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/19 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 合约 | 昨日 远营价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日特仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | | EC2506 | 1685.0 | -5.72 | -382.4 | 108778 | | 34207 | -4355 | | | | EC2508 | 2280.0 | -3.36 | -977.4 | 80677 | | 48759 | 245 | | | | EC2510 | 1445.0 | -1.34 | -142.4 | 25430 | | 23558 | -893 | | | | EC2512 | 1595.0 | -1.01 | -292.4 | 4306 | | 5138 | 34 | | | | EC2602 | 1419.5 | -2.04 | -116.9 | 1548 | | 3214 | -80 | | Harri | | EC2604 | 1241. ...

广州期货指出，部分船公司此前已宣涨6月线上报价，如ONE六月上旬报价涨至大柜约2437美元，5月 下旬约1637美元；HPL六月上旬报价微涨至约1800/3000；CMA CGM六月暂报1710/2995；留意其他船 司后续是否跟进。前期从美线外溢到欧线的运力，受到中美谈判后下调加征关税的影响，预计后续重新 调配至美线运输，欧线方面运力预期有一定的下调修正，近期周均运力约29万TEU，相对而言供应过剩 程度放缓。展望后市，短期内市场或将围绕部分加征关税暂停加征的90天内、货主集中抢运的预期进行 交易，加征关税下调的乐观情绪带动下，期价或暂偏强运行。 中财期货分析称，本次关税调整有利中美贸易恢复，更可能部分释放3-4月被压抑的部分需求，盘面利 多。但前期抢出口导致美国企业库存相对较高，激发的补库需求少，而航线运力相对过剩。其他成本中 燃料油可能因关税调整震荡下行，港口及战争附加费略有减少，保费可能有所下降。08合约前向上挺价 的空间有限。后续政策仍有不确定变化，货主在近期大概率仍以观望为主，因此我们判断短期应是盘面 强现实弱。 目前来看，集运指数（欧线）行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于集运指数（欧线）后 ...