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集运早报-20251120
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 01:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market on Wednesday showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Under the pressure of high capacity in December and January, short - sellers were actively trading, and the peak - season price increase was limited [2]. - The valuation of the 12 - contract is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The 02 - contract is expected to mainly follow the spot price in the short term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. However, considering the late Chinese New Year this year and the good overall volume of China - Europe shipping, it's difficult to prove or disprove the non - peak season in the short term. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the 02 - contract may have more upside potential. The 04 - contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1763.3, down 0.35% with a basis of - 405.6; the EC2602 contract closed at 1640.1, down 2.26% with a basis of - 282.4; the EC2604 contract closed at 1162.7, down 1.43% with a basis of 195.0; the EC2606 contract closed at 1382.0, down 0.22% with a basis of - 24.3; the EC2608 contract closed at 1490.1, down 1.29% with a basis of - 132.4; the EC2610 contract closed at 1110.0, down 0.18% with a basis of 247.7 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 2452, and the open interest was 9568, a decrease of 864; the trading volume of EC2602 was 18687, and the open interest was 40244, an increase of 1384; the trading volume of EC2604 was 2358, and the open interest was 15944, a decrease of 201; the trading volume of EC2606 was 92, and the open interest was 1582, a decrease of 3; the trading volume of EC2608 was 118, and the open interest was 1212, an increase of 51; the trading volume of EC2610 was 264, and the open interest was 2520 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 600.6, with a daily increase of 10.7 and a weekly increase of 42.3; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 123.2, with a daily increase of 31.8 and a weekly increase of 67.6; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 477.4, with a daily decrease of 21.1 and a weekly decrease of 25.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index (updated every Monday) was 1357.67 on November 17, 2025, down 9.78% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line, updated weekly) was 1417 dollars/TEU on November 14, 2025, up 7.11% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1403.64 points on November 14, 2025, up 2.69% from the previous period; the NCFI was 979.34 on November 14, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 48**: Currently, MSK's opening price is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous price, and OA has not adjusted the price. The average price is 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price - increase letters for December, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4]. - **Week 49**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced the price to 2506 dollars [5]. Related News - The White House is about to announce a major new peace agreement with Russia, which is expected to end the three - and - a - half - year Russia - Ukraine conflict. An agreement framework is expected to be reached by the end of this month, or even "as soon as this week" [6].
集运日报:SCFIS持续下行,压制盘面持续下探,符合日报预期,可考虑部分止盈,关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251119
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 05:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - SCFIS is continuously declining, indicating that the actual price increase implementation is not ideal, leading to a decline in bullish sentiment and a weak overall market oscillation. The core now lies in the direction of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the process of bottom - building. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2][6]. - The issue of tariffs has shown a marginal effect, and the current focus is on the trend of spot freight rates [6]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Freight Indexes - **SCFIS**: On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period [3]. - **SCFI**: On November 14, the announced price of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI price for the European route was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [4]. - **NCFI**: On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the comprehensive index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period [5]. - **CCFI**: On November 14, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) for the comprehensive index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [5]. 3.2 Economic Data - Eurozone: In October, the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the preliminary services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index was expected to be - 8.5 (previous - 9.2) [5]. - China: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [5]. - US: In October, the preliminary S&P Global services PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [6]. 3.3 Market Conditions of Contracts - On November 18, the main contract 2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.88%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 38,900 lots, a decrease of 20 lots from the previous day [6]. 3.4 Strategies - **Short - term Strategy**: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, pay attention to spot trends, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see or lightly attempt [7]. - **Long - term Strategy**: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [7]. 3.5 Other Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18% [7]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 28% [7]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [7].
集运早报-20251119
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 01:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Tuesday trading session saw the market give back some of the gains from Monday. The valuation of the EC2512 contract is considered neutral, and it will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The EC2602 contract is expected to mainly track the spot market. Before the peak season in December is realized, the market is less likely to believe that January will also be a peak season. The high point of freight rates usually occurs 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year). If the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be approached with a short - selling strategy [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of various EC futures contracts on November 19, 2025, showed declines. For example, EC2512 closed at 1769.5, down 1.27% (-411.8); EC2602 closed at 1678.1, down 2.78% (-320.4); etc. The open interest of most contracts decreased, except for EC2610, which had an increase of 51 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The month - to - month spreads of different contract combinations also changed. For instance, EC2512 - 2504 spread was 580.0, with a day - on - day decrease of 14.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 22.2; EC2512 - 2602 spread was 91.4, with a day - on - day increase of 25.1 and a week - on - week decrease of 81.9 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Indices**: The SCHIS index on November 17, 2025, was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% from the previous period. The SCF (European line) on November 14, 2025, was 1417 dollars/EU, up 7.1% from the previous period. The CCFI was 1403.64 points, up 2.69% from the previous period, and the NCFI was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. - **European Line Quotations**: Shipowners previously announced price increases of 2365 - 2950 dollars for the second half of November. In Week 47, the offline PA was around 1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at 2200 - 2400, with an average of 2260 dollars (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market). In Week 48, the average was 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price increase notices for December, and MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, which was in line with expectations [4]. 3.3 Related News - Hamas stated that it is legitimate to resist Israel by all means and refused to disarm. The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Gaza, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure unimpeded access and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the right of the Palestinian people to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5].
集运日报:02合约高开高走,盘面整体偏强震荡,符合日报预期,可考虑部分止盈,关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251118
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 06:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The 02 contract opened higher and trended upward, with the overall market showing a strong oscillation, which is in line with the daily report's expectation. It is advisable to consider partial profit - taking and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core lies in the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - After the early settlement of the 2602 contract and the upward movement of SCFI, the long - position sentiment was boosted, and the main contract rose significantly. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 17, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1357.67 points, down 9.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1238.42 points, down 6.9% from the previous period. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced a price of 1451.38 points, down 43.72 points from the previous period. The SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, up 7.1% from the previous period; the US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, down 17.59% from the previous period [3] - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 999.69 points, down 5.12% from the previous period; the European route was 979.34 points, up 7.42% from the previous period; the US West route was 1052.43 points, down 21.99% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1094.03 points, up 3.4% from the previous period; the European route was 1403.64 points, up 2.7% from the previous period; the US West route was 846.24 points, up 3.9% from the previous period [3] Economic Data - In October, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous 45), the service PMI preliminary value was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous 51.4), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous 49.6). The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index had a previous value of - 9.2 and a predicted value of - 8.5 [3] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [4] - In October, the US S&P Global service PMI preliminary value was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous 54.2), the manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.2 (expected 52, previous 52), and the composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous 53.9) [4] Contract Information - On November 17, the main contract 2602 closed at 1726.0, with a 6.73% increase, a trading volume of 24,450 lots, and an open interest of 38,900 lots, an increase of 837 lots from the previous day [4] - The 2508 - 2606 contracts' daily limit was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts was 100 lots [5] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, consider partial profit - taking, focus on spot trends, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or lightly attempt due to large fluctuations in each contract [5] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]
集运早报-20251118
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 01:39
04仍建议连高空思路对待。 近期欧线报价情况: 11月下宣涨:先前船司对11月下宣涨2365-2950美金。 集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਿੱਚ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 葛美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持会昆 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1792.3 | 0.13% | -434.6 | 7097 | | 12086 | -2434 | | | EC2602 | | 1726.0 | 7.54% | -368.3 | 44502 | | 388880 | 837 | | | EC2604 | | 1187.7 | 2.59% | 170.0 | 4647 | | 16182 | 564 | | | EC2606 | | 1403.9 | 1.89% | -46.2 | 3 20 | | 1621 | -3 | | | EC2608 | | 1521.1 | 2.31% | -163 ...
集运早报-20251117
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 07:27
集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਓਲੇ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1790.0 | 0.43% | -285.2 | 6881 | | 14520 | -1922 | | | EC2602 | | 1605.0 | -1.65% | -100.2 | 20006 | | 38043 | 7159 | | | EC2604 | | 1157.7 | -1.08% | 347.1 | 2180 | | 15618 | 197 | | | EC2606 | | 1377.9 | -0.20% | 126.9 | 130 | | 1624 | 1 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.7 | 0.24% | 18.1 | ર્ણ | | 1196 | 1 | | | EC2610 | | 1103.5 | -0.68% ...
集运日报:11月运价未达宣涨幅度,盘面多空博弈,已建议提前布局02合约,关注12月运价支撑逻辑-20251117
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-11-17 05:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the freight rate did not reach the announced increase, and there was a long - short game in the market. It is recommended to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect. The core is the trend of spot freight rates, and the main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate lightly or wait and see [2] - With frequent long - short information and no obvious recovery of November freight rates, the market has strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the market fluctuates in a wide range. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On November 14, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI, composite index) was 999.69 points, a 5.12% decrease from the previous period; the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS, European route) was 1504.80 points, a 24.5% increase; the NCFI (European route) was 979.34 points, a 7.42% increase; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1329.71 points, a 4.9% increase; the NCFI (US West route) was 1052.43 points, a 21.99% decrease [1] - On November 14, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1451.38 points, a decrease of 43.72 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI, composite index) was 1094.03 points, a 3.4% increase; the SCFI European line price was 1417 USD/TEU, a 7.1% increase; the CCFI (European route) was 1403.64 points, a 2.7% increase; the SCFI US West route was 1823 USD/FEU, a 17.59% decrease; the CCFI (US West route) was 846.24 points, a 3.9% increase [1] Economic Data of Different Regions - In the Eurozone, the preliminary manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45), the preliminary service PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4), the preliminary composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6), and the Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2] - In October in China, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.0%, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating overall stable business activities of Chinese enterprises [2] - In the US in October, the preliminary S&P Global service PMI was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2), the preliminary manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52), and the preliminary composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2] Main Contract Information - On November 14, the main contract 2602 closed at 1605.0, with a decline of 1.16%, a trading volume of 20,000 lots, and an open interest of 38,000 lots, an increase of 759 lots from the previous day [3] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: For risk - preferring investors, it is recommended to lightly test long in the range of 1550 - 1600 for the EC2602 contract, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold positions stubbornly, and set stop - losses [4] - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international situation turmoil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily or try lightly due to large fluctuations in each contract [4] - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4] Contract Adjustments - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 18% [4] - The margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4] Geopolitical Information - On November 16, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel's policy is that "a Palestinian state will not be established", the IDF will garrison the Hermon mountain peak and its security zone, the Gaza Strip will be demilitarized, and the IDF will continue operations until the last tunnel is demolished [5] - On November 10, the Houthi rebels warned that if the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip is broken and Israel resumes its offensive, they will resume attacks on Israel and ban Israeli ships from sailing in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea [5]
集运早报-20251114
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 01:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the overall futures market showed a volatile trend, with contracts EC2512, EC2606, and EC2608 relatively strong, possibly due to a rebound from previous declines caused by geopolitical factors [1]. - The valuation of EC2512 is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rates in late November will determine the implementation of price - holding in December, and it is expected to follow spot price changes and shipping companies' price - increase announcements [1]. - The valuation of EC2602 is difficult to determine, and it is expected to follow EC2512 in the short term. If the peak - season cargo - booking situation meets expectations, it may have greater upside potential as the freight rate usually peaks 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - January next year) [1]. - EC2604 is a off - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short - term under the peak - season logic. Given the expected greater supply pressure and the off - season in April next year, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Information Futures Contract Prices and Changes - **Single - Contract Prices**: For example, EC2512 had a closing price of 1782.3 with a change of 1.88%, and a position change of - 277.5; EC2602 had a closing price of 1632.0 with a change of - 127.2 [1]. - **Spread between Contracts**: The spread between FC2512 - 2504 was 612.0, and the spread between FC2512 - 2602 was 150.3 [1]. Index Data - **SCFIS (European Line)**: As of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a two - week decrease of 7.92% [1]. - **SCEI (European Line)**: As of November 7, 2025, it was 1323, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.56% and a two - week increase of 7.87% [1]. - **CCFI**: As of November 1, 2025, it was 1366.85, with a week - on - week increase of 3.25% and a two - week increase of 2.37% [1]. - **NCFI**: As of November 1, 2025, it was 911.73, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58% and a two - week increase of 17.43% [1]. Spot Freight Rate and Shipping Company Quotes - **46 - week Spot Freight Rate**: The average landed price was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures market) [1]. - **Shipping Company Quotes for 48 - week**: MSK's opening quotes for the 48 - week were 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 points on the futures market; ONE reduced its price to 1900 US dollars for the 48 - week [1][3]. News and Geopolitical Factors - On November 12, the Houthi armed forces announced the end of attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea but threatened to resume if Israel continued its aggression in Gaza [1]. - On November 11, Hamas stated that it had completed the first phase of the cease - fire agreement, which was only a preliminary agreement, and the second - phase negotiation had not started yet [1].
集运日报:现货指数大涨带动远月合约,风险偏好者已建议提前布局02合约,关注12月运价支撑逻辑。-20251112
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 08:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot index's sharp rise drives the far - month contracts. Risk - preferring investors are advised to pre - layout the 02 contract and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the direction of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Freight Index - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the initial value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the initial value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. - The initial value of the euro - zone manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the initial value of the services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the initial value of the composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The euro - zone Sentix investor confidence index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. Contract Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The trading limits of contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18%. The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The main contract retraces while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - preferring investors are advised to try long positions lightly in the 1550 - 1600 range of the EC2602 contract, focus on the spot trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract maintains a seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rises, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].
永安期货集运早报-20251112
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 03:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the EC2602 contract's price rose due to early rumors of the 02 pricing index, and other contracts were also driven up. However, in the afternoon, the EC2512 contract dropped significantly because MSK opened cabins and lowered prices. The EC2512 contract has a neutral valuation and will gradually follow the delivery logic. The freight rate in late November will determine the implementation of the price - holding strategy in December. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term following the spot price and shipping companies' announcements. The EC2602 contract's valuation is harder to determine and is expected to mainly follow the EC2512 contract in the short - term. If the shipping volume during the peak season is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential. The EC2604 contract is a slack - season contract. It will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short - term during the peak - season logic. Considering the greater supply pressure and the slack season in April next year, a short - selling strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1746.1, down 1.81%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1690.5, up 5.33%; the EC2604 contract closed at 1187.8, up 1.86%; the FC2606 contract closed at 1423.9, up 2.06%; the EC2608 contract closed at 1545.0, up 3.33%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1137.5, up 0.30% [2]. - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of the EC2512 contract decreased by 1475 to 25205; the EC2602 contract increased by 4654 to 29350; the EC2604 contract increased by 279 to 14730; the FC2606 contract decreased by 23 to 1423; the EC2608 contract decreased by 73 to 1213; the EC2610 contract increased by 122 to 1607 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 558.3, down 56.8 from the previous day and 109.0 from the previous week; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 55.6, down 117.7 from the previous day and 203.9 from the previous week; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 502.7, up 63.9 from the previous day and 94.9 from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Spot Indices - **SCEIS**: Updated every Monday, as of November 10, 2025, it was 1504.80 points, up 24.50% from the previous period and down - 7.92% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1323 dollars/TEU, down - 1.56% from the previous period and up 7.87% from two periods ago [2]. - **CCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 1366.85 points, up 3.25% from the previous period and up 2.37% from two periods ago [2]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, as of November 7, 2025, it was 911.73 points, down - 5.58% from the previous period and up 17.43% from two periods ago [2]. 3.3 Recent European Line Freight Quotes - **45th Week**: The average freight rate was about 2050 US dollars (equivalent to 1450 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **46th Week**: The average freight rate was 2000 US dollars (equivalent to 1400 points on the futures disk) [2]. - **Shipping Companies' Quotes**: Shipping companies announced a price increase to 2365 - 2950 US dollars for mid - to - late November, but MSK opened cabins at 2250 US dollars (a 50 - dollar increase from the previous period). It is expected that other shipping companies will gradually lower their quotes this week and may announce a price increase for December. OOCL lowered its online quote for November by 300 US dollars to 2600 US dollars. MSK's cabin - opening quote for the 48th week was 1900 - 2000 US dollars, equivalent to 1340 - 1400 US dollars on the futures disk [2]. 3.4 Related News - **Geopolitical News**: As of November 10, the first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has expired. Israel and Hamas accused each other of violating the agreement, and the second - stage cease - fire negotiation is still "far from sight" [3]. - **Policy News**: Starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China will suspend the implementation of relevant regulations on charging special port fees for US ships for one year, synchronizing with the US suspension of the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [4].