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集运期货:EC主力盘整
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-05 02:04
Pricing Information - As of August 4, the spot prices for container shipping are as follows: Maersk: $1705-$1846/TEU, $2850-$3102/TEU; CMA: $1935-$2635/TEU, $3445-$4345/TEU; MSC: $2000-$2163/TEU, $3340-$3646/TEU; ONE: $2194/TEU, $2943/TEU; EMC: $2355-$2455/TEU, $3560-$3760/TEU [1] Shipping Index - As of August 4, the SCFIS European line index is reported at 2297.86 points, a decrease of 0.81% month-on-month; the US West Coast index decreased by 11.99% to 1130.12 points. The SCFI composite index as of August 1 is 1550.74 points, down 2.63%. The Shanghai-Europe freight rate decreased by 1.87% to $2051/TEU; Shanghai-US West freight rate is $2021/FEU, down 2.23% from last week; Shanghai-US East freight rate is $3126/FEU, down 7.46% from last week [2] Market Fundamentals - As of August 4, the global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.7 million TEU, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. In terms of demand, the Eurozone's June composite PMI is 50.2, with manufacturing PMI at 49.4 and services PMI at 50.0; the US June manufacturing PMI is 49, with new orders index at 46.4. The OECD leading index for the G7 group recorded 100.40 in June [3] Market Logic - The futures market experienced fluctuations with the main contract closing at 1421.8 points, down 0.72%; the August contract closed at 2122.3, up 0.38%. The market is currently in a phase of slow decline in spot prices, lacking strong driving forces in the fundamentals. The short-term outlook for the main contract is expected to show a weak oscillating pattern [4]
南华期货集运周报:MSK开舱报价继续下行-20250804
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 07:03
南华期货集运周报 当周期货标的现货指数上海出口结算运价指数(SCFIS)欧洲航线继续下行,美西航线也再度小幅回 落。中国出口集装箱运价指数(CCFI)、上海出口集装箱运价指数(SCFI)和宁波出口集装箱运价指数 (NCFI)均继续下降。 分航线来看,SCFI欧洲航线再度回落,美西航线和美东航线则继续下行。当周期价主要影响因素为欧线 现舱报价。当周主流船司8月现舱报价继续回落,带降了期货价格的估值。商品情绪则受宏观政策影响而有所 回落,同样利空EC的市场情绪。中美关税谈判基本无太多变化,整体对市场情绪影响短期中性略偏多。 对于后市而言,可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价变动和欧线市场基本面。 受美国关税等宏观情绪影响,期价短期维持震荡略偏下行趋势的可能性仍相对较大,但需注意期价至短 期低位后可能的反弹。 2. 策略 期现(基差)策略:交易者宜保持观察,寻找短期做空基差的机会。 —— MSK开舱报价继续下行 2025/08/03 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣(Z0021065) 1. 摘要 套利(跨期)策略:可暂时保持观望。 3. 盘面回顾 截至周五,EC各月合约的收盘价与结算价均有 ...
集运指数欧线周报(EC):运价见顶信号显现,盘面整体偏弱-20250804
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:33
本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议;期市有风险,投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数:运价见顶信号显现,盘面整体偏弱 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【集运指数欧线周报(EC)】 运价见顶信号显现,盘面整体偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-08-04 卢钊毅 从业资格证号:F3171622 投资咨询证号:Z0021177 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | (1)现货价格见顶,8月上旬报价开始走弱,带动8月下旬同步走弱。 | | 现货运价 | 利空 | (1)GEMINI:马士基wk33开舱2800,涨至2900,HPL8月上旬降至3150。(2)OA:8月上旬报价均值在3300;CMA 3450,EMC 3500,OOCL 3250。 | | | | (3)PA:整体由于敞口较大,持续降价至3100,有继续下调的趋势。ONE 3150,HMM 3100。(4)MSC:8月上报3350。 | | | | 【1】中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢于29日 ...
集运早报-20250801
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 06:39
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the face of high capacity pressure and the approaching off - season of demand, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Information EC Futures Contracts and Forward Curve - EC futures contract prices show different trends, with varying degrees of decline and increase in different contract periods, such as EC2508 at 2121.6 with a decline of - 724, and EC2510 at 1425.1 with a decline of - 2.63 [1] - The monthly spread of EC contracts also shows different changes, for example, EC2508 - 2510 is - 267.2, with a day - on - day change of 2.1 [1] Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS decreased by 3.50% compared with the previous period, and SCFI increased by 0.53%. CCFI (European route) increased by 4.46%, and NCE increased by 0.35%. TCI remained unchanged at 0.00% [1] European Route Capacity and Freight Volume - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity of the European - American route is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in weeks 32, 33, 34, and 35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 330,000 TEU respectively. The overall capacity pressure is high, especially in the second half of August [1] - There is still some support for the basic cargo volume in the first half of August, but the freight forwarders' perception is poor [1] Recent European Route Quotations - Downstream is currently booking cabins for early August (weeks 31 - 32). The landing price in week 32 is about $3300 (equivalent to 2300 points on the disk), and the landing price in week 33 is about 2150 points. MSK's opening quotation for week 33 is $2800, and other shipping companies mainly follow the previous quotations [1] - Shipping companies have adjusted their quotations in the past few days. For example, HPL reduced the price by $200 to $3100 on Tuesday, and MSC reduced the price by $300 to $3340 on Wednesday [1] Seasonal Trends of Freight Rate Indexes - The report presents the seasonal trends of freight rate indexes for multiple routes, including European routes, TCI (East Mediterranean), TCI (West Mediterranean), TCI (East America), TCI (West America), TCI (South - West America), TCI (East Africa), TCI (Persian Gulf), TCI (South Africa), and TCI (West Africa) [1][5]
集运早报-20250731
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 11:34
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report Under the suppression of high capacity, as demand gradually enters the off - season, freight rates will be under pressure in the future [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 closed at 2139.0 with a 1.33% increase, volume of 1302, and a decrease of 329 in open interest [1]. - EC2510 closed at 1468.7 with a 0.60% increase, volume of 66330, and an increase of 4148 in open interest [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1738.0 with a 0.17% increase, volume of 5748, and an increase of 374 in open interest [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1532.0 with a 0.70% increase, volume of 1400, and a decrease of 27 in open interest [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1386.1 with a 1.18% increase, volume of 1782, and an increase of 160 in open interest [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1514.2 with a 0.62% increase, volume of 153, and an increase of 14 in open interest [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2508 - 2510 spread was 670.3, compared to 651.0 the previous day and 680.4 two days ago [1]. - EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 269.3, compared to - 275.0 the previous day and - 235.0 two days ago [1]. - EC2512 - 2602 spread was 206.0, compared to 213.7 the previous day and 196.8 two days ago [1]. Spot and Index Data - SCHIS on 2025/7/28 was 2316.56, with a - 3.50% decrease from the previous period [1]. - SCFI on 2025/7/25 was 2090 dollars/TEU, with a 0.53% increase from the previous period [1]. - CCFI (European Line) on 2025/7/25 was 1787.24, with a - 0.90% decrease from the previous period [1]. - NCFI on 2025/7/25 was 1422.9, with a - 1.20% decrease from the previous period [1]. - TCI on 2025/7/18 was 1054.56, with a - 0.75% decrease from the previous period [1]. European Line Supply and Demand - In August and September (temporarily), the average weekly capacity is 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacity in week32/33/34/35 is 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1]. - There is a transfer of capacity from the US line to the European line in the schedule. Supported by the minimum cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in late July was not under great pressure. There is still some support from the minimum cargo volume in the first half of August, with MSK having good cargo intake and OA and PA being relatively average. Overall, the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - Downstream is currently booking space for early August (week31 - 32). The price remained stable in July, around 2400 points. In week32 of August, it landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points). MSK quoted 2800 dollars for week33, and other shipping companies mainly followed the previous quotes [2]. Week33 Changes - On Tuesday, HPL reduced the price by 200 to 3100 dollars. MSK opened at 2800 dollars and then raised it to 2860 dollars [3]. - On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price by 300 to 3340 dollars, and OOCL reduced the price by 200 to 3200 - 3300 dollars [3]. Related News - On 7/31, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the Canadian Prime Minister's statement about planning to recognize the State of Palestine, stating that Canada's change of stance at this time is a reward for Hamas [4]. - On 7/31, a US White House official said that Trump believes recognizing the State of Palestine would be a reward for Hamas and he does not think they should be rewarded [4]. - On 7/31, Trump announced a trade agreement with South Korea, including a 15% tariff and a 350 - billion - dollar investment [4].
集装箱运输市场日报:马士基新一周开舱报价继续下行-20250730
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core View of the Report - The current prices of EC contracts on the container shipping index (European line) futures show a mixed trend. The opening price of the futures was low today mainly because Maersk's new - week opening quotes continued to decline, dragging down the valuation of near - month contracts. The market is relatively cautious about far - month contracts due to uncertainties such as Sino - US tariffs and the Middle East situation. Looking ahead, the overall EC may still show a slightly downward oscillating trend, and the results of the new round of Sino - US negotiations can be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1800 - 1900 to lock in profits [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to orders and are worried about rising freight rates, they can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to determine booking costs in advance [1]. Market Situation of EC Contracts - As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed trends. For the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 308 to 26,146, short positions decreased by 16 to 31,521, and trading volume decreased by 11,589 to 54,713 (bilateral) [1]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positive Factor**: Netanyahu stated that Israel will continue to fight until hostages are released and Hamas is defeated, and will cooperate with international organizations and Western countries to ensure aid to Gaza [2]. - **Negative Factor**: Maersk's new - week European line opening quotes were lower than the previous week [2]. EC Basis and Price Changes - **Basis Changes**: On July 30, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 205.56 points, with a daily increase of 72.20 points and a weekly increase of 54.76 points; for EC2510, the basis was 856.56 points, with a daily increase of 42.80 points and a weekly increase of 4.06 points [2]. - **Price Changes**: On July 30, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2111.0 points, with a daily decline of 3.31% and a weekly decline of 6.17%; the closing price of EC2510 was 1460.0 points, with a daily decline of 2.85% and a weekly decline of 5.68% [4]. Container Shipping Spot Quotes - On August 14, Maersk's 20GP opening quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased by $60 compared to the previous week, and 40GP decreased by $100. Currently, they have rebounded to $1705/TEU and $2850/FEU respectively. In mid - August, Evergreen's 20GP total quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased by $100 compared to the same period, and 40GP decreased by $200 [6]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 2316.56 points, a decrease of 83.94 points (-3.50%) from the previous value; the latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1284.01 points, a decrease of 17.8 points (-1.37%) [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On July 29, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.987 days, a decrease of 0.377 days from the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.049 days, an increase of 0.156 days from the previous day [12]. Ship Speed and Number of Waiting Ships - On July 29, 2025, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.912 knots, an increase of 0.119 knots from the previous day; the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor increased by 8 to 19 compared to the previous day [21].
集运日报:部分班轮公司小幅下调运价,多空博弈下盘面涨跌互现,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损-20250730
Xin Shi Ji Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:11
2025年7月30日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 部分班轮公司小幅下调运价,多空博弈下盘面涨跌互现,不建议继续加仓,设置好止损。 | SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | | | --- | --- | | 7月28日 | 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(欧洲航线)2400.50点,较上期下跌0.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(综合指数)1110.57点,较上期下跌3.26% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS(美西航线)1301.81点,较上期上涨2.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(欧洲航线)1422.9点,较上期下跌1.20% | | 7月25日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI(美西航线)1120.51点,较上期下跌5.19% 7月25日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1592.59点,较上期下跌54.31点 | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI(综合指数)1261.35点,较上期下跌3.2% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格2090USD/TEU, 较上期上涨0.53% | | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线 ...
PA联盟运价下修至3100美元/FEU,现货价格顶部大概率已现
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 07:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the spot price of PA Alliance freight rates has likely emerged, with the rate revised down to $3,100 per FEU [1][4] - The August contract experiences high - level fluctuations, and the top of the freight rate has likely appeared. The delivery settlement price of the August contract may be around 2,200 points [4] - The October contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of the freight rate [5] - The December contract follows the off - peak and peak season pattern, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen [7] - The year 2025 is a major year for container ship deliveries [8] - The strategy includes a sideways movement for the main contract, a long - 12 and short - 10 arbitrage strategy, and shorting the October contract on rallies [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of July 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 79,692.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 81,678.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1,562.30, 1,382.00, 1,506.90, 2,244.90, 1,583.90, and 1,779.90 respectively [7] II. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show different price levels and trends. For example, Maersk's Week 31 price is 1907/3214, and Week 32 is 1815/3050 [1] - On July 18, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2,079.00 per TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was $2,142.00 per FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was $3,612.00 per FEU. On July 21, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2,400.50 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1,301.81 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From July to September 2025, the weekly average capacity on the China - European base port route shows different levels. August has 3 blank sailings from the OA Alliance, and there are 2 TBNs in August and 4 in September. Maersk will add two additional ships in Week 32 and Week 34 [3] - As of July 20, 2025, 151 container ships with a total capacity of 1.204 million TEU have been delivered in 2025. Among them, 47 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 705,300 TEU and 7 ships above 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 159,880 TEU have been delivered [8] IV. Supply Chain - There is geopolitical influence. The US Middle East envoy stated that the US will withdraw from the Doha cease - fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas due to Hamas' lack of sincerity [2] - Information on ship congestion ratios, speeds of different - sized ships, and the number of container ships passing through major canals such as the Suez, Cape of Good Hope, and Panama is presented in the figures, although specific data in the text analysis is not elaborated [57][67][75] V. Demand and European Economy - Figures show data related to port container throughput, EU 27 industrial production index, EU 27 imports from China, euro - zone consumer confidence index, EU 27 retail sales year - on - year, and China's export volume to the EU and total export volume, but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [76][77][88]
集运早报-20250724
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 08:19
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: EC Futures Contracts - EC2508: Yesterday's closing price was 2239.7, down 0.44%, with an open interest of 11039, a decrease of 1354 [2] - EC2510: Yesterday's closing price was 1537.0, down 0.71%, with an open interest of 50131, a decrease of 1603 [2] - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1701.8, down 0.40%, with an open interest of 8446, a decrease of 87 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1477.3, up 1.15%, with an open interest of 4094, an increase of 112 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1324.0, up 0.32%, with an open interest of 5800, an increase of 262 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1468.8, up 0.60%, with an open interest of 807, an increase of 28 [2] Group 3: Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 702.7, with a target ratio of 1.0 and a week - on - week increase of 119.5 [2] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 164.8, with a target ratio of - 4.1 and a week - on - week increase of 10.2 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 224.5, with a target ratio of - 23.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.1 [2] Group 4: Shipping Indexes - TT Index: Updated weekly, announced on July 21, 2025, at 2400.5 points, down 0.89% from the previous period [2] - SCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 2079 dollars/TEU, down 0.95% from the previous period [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1803.42 points, up 4.46% from the previous period [2] - NCFI: Updated weekly, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1440.25 points, up 0.35% from the previous period [2] - TCI: Updated daily, announced on July 18, 2025, at 1054.56 points, down 0.75% from the previous period [2] Group 5: European Line Market Analysis - European Line Demand in August: The weekly average capacity in August is as high as 320,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 8%. However, there is still support for cargo at the beginning of August. The market may remain stable or see a slight decline in some routes in the next half - month [2] - Recent European Line Quotations: Downstream is currently booking spaces for early August (week 31 - 32). In July, prices remained stable at around 2400 points. In August, although some shipping companies announced price increases, currently, most shipping companies are still using the previous prices, with MSK (shanghai - rotterdam) reducing the price by 100 to 2900 dollars and MSK (shanghai - antwerp) keeping the price stable at 2900 dollars, and MSK's加班船 (BEIJING MAERSK) quoting 2700 dollars [2] Group 6: News - July 24: The Israeli military said it was advancing military operations in northern Gaza, launching air strikes on more than a hundred military targets [3] - July 23: According to the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation, Hamas has made a preliminary response to the mediators' proposal regarding Gaza. The Israeli president told soldiers in Gaza that intensive negotiations were underway, hoping for good news soon [3] - July 23: US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that Chinese and US economic and trade officials will hold the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden next week [3]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250724
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-24 01:35
宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:集运欧线期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,276.1 | 2,238.0 | 2,239.7 | 2,212.3 | -36.4 | -1 ...