即便零售行业高管也对"TACO交易"抱有乐观态度。"TACO"是"特朗普总是退缩（Trump Always Chickens Out）"的缩 写。 咨询公司AlixPartners的最新调查显示，在经历数周贸易政策变动、初步协议及复杂的法庭挑战后，部分零售商高管开 始对特朗普所谓的"对等"关税持更乐观态度。 一项于6月1日对品牌、零售商及其他消费品公司高管的调查发现，多数受访者预计总统将在7月9日"对等"关税90天暂 停期结束后，撤回对欧盟、越南、印度和墨西哥的高额关税。 来自上述地区及数十个其他国家的进口商品正面临10%的关税。但随着特朗普政府试图与各国敲定贸易协议，多数调 查受访者预计，谈判结束后10%的关税将继续生效，而非维持4月2日最初实施的更高税率。 消费品公司和零售商目前在为哪些关税情景做规划？ 对许多零售商而言，越南已成为下一个制造业前沿。东南亚国家与华盛顿的谈判备受关注，也是近几个月许多高管最 大的担忧之一。 AlixPartners合伙人兼董事总经理索尼娅·拉平斯基（Sonia Lapinsky）表示，在特朗普宣布并随后暂时降低高额"对 等"关税后的几周里，许多高管担心税率最终会高于10%。 ...

海外资金流向日本股 从海外投资者的角度来看，日本股票的良好表现也不容忽视。日经平均指数较2024年底仅下 跌4%，而按美元计算则上涨5%。以美元计价的东证股价指数（TOPIX）上涨了10%，远远 超过了作为美国股市投资指标的标普500指数（上涨2%）。在此期间，尽管出现日元升值， 但以美元计价的收益上升仍有所扩大。 今年1～3月关税隐忧加强，海外企业累计净抛售日本股票逾2万亿日元。对日本股票的持有比 例随之降低。对于以全球股票为投资对象的投资者来说，如果日本股票的美元回报持续改 善，与指标相比，自己的投资成绩可能会落后。这有可能诱发了"跟风买入"局面。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）今堀祥和、石川智寻 东京证券交易所6月12日公布的各投资部门股票买卖动向（东证和名古屋证券交易所的合计） 显示，6月第1周海外投资者的日本股票买入超过抛售，差额为3985亿日元。超过1000亿日 元的大幅净买入连续纪录已达10周。 连续买入的起点是4月第1周（3月31日～4月4日）。当时美国总统特朗普于2日公布了"对等 关税"的全貌，面对规模和范围远远超过市场参与者预期的高关税，投资者心理冷却。日经平 均指数截至4月7日暴跌至 ...

海外投资者10周累计净买入额达到3.87万亿日元，超过进行股票回购的企业（2.76万亿日元），成为日 本股票的"最大买家"。个人投资者净卖出1万亿日元…… 海外资金流向日本股 海外资金的再次流入正在推高日本股市。海外投资者截至6月第1周（2～6日）连续10周净买 入股票现货，这一期间累计净买入额接近4万亿日元。在关税导致业务环境的不确定性增强的 情况下，推进积极投资和股东回报的企业姿态获得好评。以美元来计算的日本股票的投资收 益好于美国股票，这一点也被意识到。 东京证券交易所6月12日公布的各投资部门股票买卖动向（东证和名古屋证券交易所的合计） 显示，6月第1周海外投资者的日本股票买入超过抛售，差额为3985亿日元。超过1000亿日 元的大幅净买入连续纪录已达10周。 连续买入的起点是4月第1周（3月31日～4月4日）。当时美国总统特朗普于2日公布了"对等 关税"的全貌，面对规模和范围远远超过市场参与者预期的高关税，投资者心理冷却。日经平 均指数截至4月7日暴跌至3万1000点附近。 日经平均指数以贸易谈判的进展等为契机实现反弹。作为V型复苏推动者的海外投资者10周累 计净买入额达到3.87万亿日元，超过进行 ...

Group 1 - The UK experienced a significant decline in exports to the US, with a drop of £2 billion (approximately $2.7 billion) in April, marking the largest monthly decrease since records began in 1997 [1] - The overall trade deficit for the UK widened from £19.9 billion (approximately $27 billion) in March to £23.2 billion (approximately $31.5 billion) in April [1] - The UK economy contracted by 0.3% month-on-month in April, which was worse than the market expectation of a 0.1% decline, representing the largest monthly drop since October 2023 [1] Group 2 - The decline in GDP growth is attributed to several domestic factors, including the end of the temporary stamp duty relief for home purchases and a decrease in output from the automotive sector [2] - The Bank of England is expected to maintain the base interest rate in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, despite predictions of two potential rate cuts later this year due to the current economic downturn [2]

"对等关税"暂缓措施将于7月9日到期，钢铝关税已于6月4日起从25%提高至50%。随着时间推移，日企 的损失会进一步扩大。难怪赤泽亮正6日结束第五轮谈判后叹息："日本经济每天都在产生重大损失，哪 怕提前一秒钟也好。" 不幸的是，日本手里能打的牌并不多。于是，日本将"应对中国的措施"作为打开局面的筹码，企图以此 作为"投名状"。 此前的谈判中，日本投其所好地提出采购美国液化天然气等能源产品，购买美国玉米等农产品，提供军 舰维修、破冰船建造技术，进口1万亿日元（约合69.9亿美元）美企芯片产品，协助生产芯片制造所需 的晶圆等材料，并在稀土供应链上与美国加强合作，向美方提供加工利用技术，探索在石墨和镓领域开 展合作。日方希望以此"打动"美国，换取美方在关税问题上让步。 然而，日方的如意算盘未必能如愿。此前英美达成关税协议，将10万辆以内的汽车关税降至10%，打了 率先与美国展开谈判的日本一记耳光。6月11日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦结束，中国商 务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢表示，双方进行了专业、理性、深入、坦诚的沟通，原则上就落 实日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。日媒越发担心，中美之间的谈判使日本在美国眼 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 ending a three-day winning streak as investors assessed international trade developments and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May [1] - Traders increased bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts in September, with President Trump urging the Fed to lower rates again [1] Index Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 42,865.77, down 1.10 points; the Nasdaq Composite fell 99.11 points (0.50%) to 19,615.88; the S&P 500 dropped 16.57 points (0.27%) to 6,022.24 [2] - The S&P 500 index had six out of the last seven trading days in the green, remaining less than 2% below its record high set in February [2] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's eleven sectors saw seven decline and four rise, with Consumer Discretionary and Materials leading the losses at 1.02% and 0.98%, respectively; Energy and Utilities led the gains at 1.49% and 0.05% [3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Intel dropping over 6% after Apple announced it would end support for Intel chips in its macOS, marking the end of a 20-year partnership [3] - Financial stocks mostly fell, with U.S. Bancorp down over 2%, while some firms like UBS, Goldman Sachs, and Deutsche Bank saw gains of over 1% [4] - Energy stocks rose across the board, with U.S. Energy up over 8%, and several companies like Petrobras and ConocoPhillips gaining over 3% [4]

贝森特出席美国联邦国会众议院听证会（REUTERS） 美国财政部长贝森特表示，考虑延长部分对等关税的90天宽限期，条件是"怀着诚意进行谈判"。这意味 着在7月9日宽限期到期以后，分配给各个国家和地区的追加关税也有可能不启动…… 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）高见浩辅 华盛顿 关于这一点，美国总统特朗普11日晚就谈判期限的延期问题向记者团表示，"可以延长，但可 能不需要（延长）"。 他还表示，将在1~2周内向贸易伙伴国发送信函提出协议条件。同时称"信函的内容是'这就是 协议。要么接受，要么离开'"。 美国财政部长贝森特于当地时间6月11日表示，考虑延长部分对等关税的90天宽限期。条件 是"怀着诚意进行谈判"。这意味着在7月9日宽限期到期以后，分配给各个国家和地区的追加 关税也有可能不启动。 另一方面，贝森特表示，"对于像欧盟那样正在谈判中的国家和地区或者正在形成贸易集团的 国家，如果对方怀着诚意进行谈判，可能会推迟期限"。 贝森特在美国联邦国会众议院筹款委员会会议上回答了议员的质询。美国临时冻结了4月上旬 提出的对等关税中高于基本税率10％的部分。美方称90天以后再启动，但截至目前仅与英国 通过谈判达成了协 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU and the US trade negotiations are facing delays, with the possibility of extending beyond the July 9 deadline, as the EU is reluctant to make hasty concessions despite the threat of 50% punitive tariffs from the US [1][3][5]. Group 1: Negotiation Status - The EU believes that only a preliminary agreement can be reached by July 9, with further details needing additional negotiations [4][5]. - Recent discussions have focused on key sectors such as steel, aluminum, automotive, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aviation, while also addressing tariff and non-tariff barriers [5]. Group 2: Potential Tariffs and Retaliation - If no agreement is reached by the July deadline, the US plans to impose 50% tariffs on nearly all EU exports, which could trigger retaliatory measures from the EU [2][6]. - The EU has warned that retaliatory measures targeting over $100 billion worth of US imports could take effect by July 14 if negotiations fail [7]. Group 3: EU's Retaliatory Measures - The first round of EU-approved tariffs targets $240 billion worth of US goods, focusing on politically sensitive areas such as agricultural products and motorcycles [7]. - A second round of tariffs aims at an additional $950 billion worth of US products, including Boeing aircraft and American-made cars, as a response to the US's "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. Group 4: Legal Context - The US Court of Appeals has allowed the continuation of the current tariff policies during ongoing litigation, which may last several months [9][10]. - The legal battle began after a ruling that deemed Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs as potentially unlawful, with the case now under expedited review [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The progress in trade negotiations may limit the rise in gold prices, as optimism surrounding the US-China trade agreement increases and negotiations with other partners may yield short-term advancements [1] Group 1 - Financial expert Nikos Tzabouras indicates that the appeal of precious metals as a safe haven has strengthened due to the US court maintaining President Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs during the appeal process [1] - The optimistic sentiment regarding the US-China trade agreement could suppress gold prices, potentially locking them within a narrow price range [1]

Group 1 - The core focus of the negotiations between the US and China in London includes topics such as rare earths, technology, and tariffs [2][4] - The US delegation has increased in size with the inclusion of Commerce Secretary Raimondo, highlighting the importance of export controls in the discussions [4] - The negotiations are seen as critical for the US to achieve trade agreements, especially as the deadline for the "reciprocal tariffs" approaches [5][7] Group 2 - The US aims to restore China's rare earth exports to pre-tariff levels, recognizing the strategic importance of these resources in the trade negotiations [8][11] - China dominates the global rare earth market, accounting for 61% of mining production and 92% of processing, making it a crucial player in the supply chain [11] - The US is increasingly dependent on Chinese rare earths for both civilian and military applications, with about 70% of its rare earth compounds and metals imported from China [11][13] Group 3 - The negotiations are characterized by a shift in power dynamics, with China's rare earth resources providing it with significant leverage over the US, altering the previous "strong US, weak China" narrative [13] - The atmosphere of the talks is reported to be positive, with both sides expressing optimism about potential outcomes [13]