每日报告 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 现货市场：7 月 15 日，主要铁矿石外盘报价环比前一交易日持平，青岛港主 要品位铁矿石价格较前一交易日持平。 技术面：铁矿石 2509 合约日线 KDJ 指标走势分化，K 值、J 值调头回落，D 值继续上行；铁矿石 2509 日线 MACD 指标红柱转为收窄。 1.2 后市展望： 外围市场方面，美方表示将于中国会面，贸易风险有所缓和；国内方面，中 央财经委员会第六次会议提出推动落后产能有序退出，随后多家券商发布"反内 卷"相关研报，前期供应过剩的品种迎 ...

研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 16 日 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 15 日，万得全 A 开盘后震荡回落，午后再度回升，收跌 0.20%，超 4000 支个股下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300 指数收盘上涨 0.03%,上证 50、中证 500、 中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.38%、0.03%、0.30%。指数期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、 IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.13%、0.48%、0.07%、0.39%（按前一交易日收盘价为 基准计算）。 | 表1:股 ...

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% at constant prices [1][2] - The current economic situation shows a continuous improvement, with significant enhancements in economic strength, technological capability, and comprehensive national power [2][3] Key Economic Development Goals - The main expected target for GDP growth this year is around 5%, with four key areas of focus for achieving this goal: enhancing macro policy counter-cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand comprehensively, implementing further reforms, and increasing high-level opening-up [3][5] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.2% and 9.5% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth [6][7] - The industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with a steady push towards green transformation and high-quality development [6][7] Challenges and Solutions in Industrial Development - The industrial economy faces challenges such as external uncertainties and the need for better balance between supply and demand [7][8] - Solutions include enhancing effective investment, improving investment efficiency, and fostering orderly development of traditional, emerging, and future industries [7][8] New Industrialization Strategy - The focus of new industrialization remains on strengthening the real economy, with an emphasis on systematic approaches to build a modern industrial system [8][9] - The interaction between industry and technology is crucial, with opportunities arising from the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [8][9] Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The phenomenon of "involution" in competition reflects a dynamic process of supply and demand in emerging industries, necessitating specific analysis rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [9][10] - A comprehensive approach to address "involution" should include optimizing industrial structure, promoting fair competition, and ensuring effective market resource allocation [10][11]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, exceeding market expectations, while CPI decreased by 0.1% [1] - The resilience of the Chinese economy is attributed to both macro and micro policies, as well as the inherent strength and growth momentum of the economy [1] Private Sector Dynamics - The vitality of the private economy is crucial for economic recovery, with recent policy relaxations indicating a shift towards less regulatory burden [2] - Examples of policy easing include the removal of approval requirements for large public events and simplified approval processes for commercial performances [2] Market Environment - The establishment of a unified national market and a legal business environment is essential for fostering economic growth [3] - Current macroeconomic indicators show a need for balance between stimulating growth and avoiding detrimental interventions [3] Recommendations for Economic Support - A proposal suggests allocating part of the special long-term bonds to social welfare to enhance residents' disposable income, which could stimulate market consumption [4] - The focus should be on creating a conducive environment for private sector growth through reduced regulatory constraints and lower taxes [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.42% and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.73% on July 15 [1] - The Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) experienced a decline of 0.66%, marking a rare pullback after several days of gains [1] - The tracking error of the Shanghai Composite ETF (510980) over the past year was only 0.1%, indicating a strong performance relative to its benchmark [1] Group 2 - The core driving force behind the recent market strength is attributed to the collective performance of large-cap blue-chip stocks, particularly in the financial sector [2] - The real estate and photovoltaic sectors, which had been underperforming, have recently shown significant gains, suggesting a healthier market condition [2] - Policy expectations are rising, with recent developments in Hong Kong regarding virtual asset trading licenses and easing restrictions on tokenized custody and cross-border payments [3] Group 3 - The market's trading volume has shown marginal improvement, with a weekly turnover of 74,808 billion yuan, indicating a gradual recovery in trading activity [3] - For the upcoming months, July is viewed as a favorable window for investment, while August and September may present higher risks [4] - Recommended sectors for investment include electronics, power equipment, defense, computing, and non-bank financials, with a particular focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the resilience of China's economy in the first half of 2023, highlighting a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, and the importance of balancing growth and transformation in future policies [1][2]. Economic Trends - The article identifies three key trends: 1. Long-term resilience in exports 2. Strong performance in the cultural and tourism consumption market 3. Accelerated growth in high-tech manufacturing, with its value-added growth outpacing that of all industrial sectors [2]. - The economic situation is summarized with four words: stable, real, new, and optimized, indicating a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [2]. Policy Recommendations - There is a call to strengthen macroeconomic policies with a focus on people's livelihoods, emphasizing the need for effective interaction between investment and consumption [3][4]. - The article stresses the importance of expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, with a focus on improving consumption and addressing structural changes in the market [4]. Competition Issues - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in competition, indicating that there are no beneficiaries in such a competitive environment, leading to a win-lose or lose-lose situation [5][6]. - It highlights the need for regulatory measures to address low-price and disorderly competition, promoting product quality and the orderly exit of outdated capacities [5][6]. Fair Competition - The distinction between fair competition and "involution" is crucial, as fair competition allows for dynamic equilibrium through price signals, while "involution" distorts these signals [6][7]. - The article advocates for the implementation of fair competition review regulations to ensure that industrial policies and competition policies work in tandem, allowing market forces to dictate production and operational behaviors [7][8]. Investment Strategies - The article suggests that attracting investment should focus on a chain-oriented approach, avoiding excessive competition for existing resources, and tailoring strategies to local advantages [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend, and short positions should be held or option strategies can be attempted [1] - The Shanghai aluminum futures have short - term correction pressure, while the cast aluminum alloy has certain resilience, and the upward space of alumina is limited [2] - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, and the idea of short - selling on rebounds should be continued [3] - The lead price continues the low - level consolidation trend, and there is a possibility of further decline if overseas low - price lead is imported [5] - The nickel market has room for rebound, waiting for a better short - selling position [6] - The tin market should continue the short - selling direction [7] - The lithium carbonate market is in the area for short - position layout [8] - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile and upward in the short term [10] Summary by Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper oscillated at 78,000 yuan on Tuesday. The spot copper price was 77,995 yuan, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed to 540 yuan. The copper market is likely to turn into a volatile downward trend [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum futures had short - term correction pressure after breaking the upward trend line. The cast aluminum alloy had certain resilience. The upward space of alumina was limited due to over - capacity [2] Zinc - The inventories of both domestic and foreign zinc markets increased, and the supply - demand fundamentals were weak. The short - selling on rebounds strategy should be continued [3] Lead - The LME lead inventory increased significantly, dragging down the Shanghai lead price. The Shanghai lead was relatively resistant to decline, but there was a risk of further decline if overseas low - price lead was imported [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price dropped sharply, and there was room for rebound. The stainless steel market was in the off - season, and the inventory was at a high level [6] Tin - The Shanghai tin price opened a decline and was supported at 262,000 yuan. The short - selling direction should be continued [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillated and rebounded, but the inventory continued to rise. The short - position layout area had arrived [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose significantly, and the fundamentals improved marginally. It was expected to maintain a volatile upward trend [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rebound, and the short - term trend was expected to be volatile and upward, with policy expectations as the main trading logic [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market shows a significant positive sentiment, with major tech stocks experiencing substantial gains, driven by favorable policies and external market conditions [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On the 15th, major tech stocks in Hong Kong surged, with Alibaba rising nearly 7%, Meituan and Baidu up over 4%, and Tencent increasing over 3%. The Hang Seng Index closed up 1.6%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.8% [1]. - The data sector saw a notable increase of nearly 8%, with companies like Kingsoft Cloud and GDS Holdings rising significantly [5]. - The overall market sentiment was bolstered by external factors, as major Asian and European indices also reported gains, indicating a reduction in tariff concerns [6]. Group 2: Domestic Positive Factors - The National Bureau of Statistics announced measures to combat "involution" in certain industries, aiming to improve market order and enhance corporate profitability, which is expected to support economic restructuring and high-quality development [7]. - Taobao's 500 billion yuan consumption voucher initiative has led to a more than twofold increase in night orders in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen since July, with over 640,000 stores seeing monthly growth exceeding 100% [8]. - NVIDIA received U.S. government approval to export its H20 chip to China, which has positively impacted related sectors [9]. Group 3: Liquidity and Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns about the Hong Kong dollar's weakness affecting liquidity, bond sales in Hong Kong surged to a record 1.28 trillion HKD (approximately 163 billion USD) in Q2, reflecting a 20% increase from the previous quarter [12][13]. - The low borrowing costs, supported by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity injections, provide a favorable environment for fundraising [14]. - Investor sentiment has reached its highest level since February, driven by optimism regarding profits and a record increase in risk appetite, although some analysts warn of an "overheated" market [15][16].

7月15日，国家统计局发布今年上半年经济数据。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值（GDP）660536亿 元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。其中，一季度增长是5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，上半年增速比去 年同期和全年均提升0.3个百分点。 谈高关税影响：中国将坚定不移 办好自己的事情 "高关税肯定是增加了贸易成本，不利于经济和贸易增长。"盛来运表示，今年以来，面对外部环境的变 化和压力，中国政府积极应变、主动作为，把做强国内大循环摆在更加突出的位置，加大力度实施更加 积极的宏观政策来扩大内需、促进消费。 "我们将坚定不移办好自己的事情，以中国经济的稳定性和确定性来应对外部的不确定性。"盛来运强调 说。 据介绍，在做强国内大循环和推动经济稳定增长方面，中国综合施策，一方面，持续加大财政政策支持 力度，加力支持消费品以旧换新工作，加大支持工业企业设备更新改造力度等。扩内需政策积极有效， 内需特别是消费是上半年经济增长的主动力。另一方面，积极推动高水平对外开放，做大"朋友圈"，推 进贸易多元化，减少对单一市场依赖风险。随着这些政策的进一步实施，促消费、稳投资、拓外贸的效 果会更加明显，将继续有利于促进经济稳定发展。 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government is formulating measures to address the issue of "involution" in certain industries and companies, aiming to enhance market order and competition [1] - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to advance the construction of a unified national market, focusing on legal governance of low-price disorderly competition and encouraging companies to improve product quality [1] - These policies are expected to improve market order, enhance supply-demand relationships, promote reasonable price recovery, and ultimately support corporate profit improvement and economic structural adjustment [1] Group 2 - The government is increasing fiscal policy support, including promoting consumption through trade-in programs and supporting industrial equipment upgrades [2] - There is a push for high-level opening up to expand trade diversification and reduce reliance on single markets [2] - The implementation of these measures is anticipated to have a significant positive impact on consumption, investment stability, and foreign trade, contributing to overall economic stability [2]