1月26日，黄金价格再度刷新历史新高。 国际金价突破5000美元关口 美国东部时间1月25日傍晚，纽约商品交易所2月黄金期货价格在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历 史性关口。 1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元，再创历史新高。 01 截至今日（26日）上午8时许，现货黄金价格上涨1.08%，报5036.57美元，盘中一度创下每盎司5043.9 美元的历史新高。美国黄金期货价格也上涨逾1%，一度站上5080美元。 2026年以来，国际金价接连跨越4600至4900美元多个整数关口，呈现极强涨势。国内黄金消费市场上， 部分主流品牌足金饰品报价已突破每克1551元。 此外，周一其它贵金属价格也普遍上涨。白银价格涨超2%，创下每盎司106.56美元的历史新高。铂金 价格小幅上涨，达到每盎司2798.46美元的新高。 02 上涨加速 从4000到5000美元仅用3个月 之后，国际金价一路上行，至2025年10月，触及每盎司4000美元，用时7个月左右。 而国际金价自每盎司4000美元至今涨破每盎司5000美元，用时仅为3个多月。 03 金价为何暴涨？ 不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices may continue to be supported by a weakening US dollar, according to analyst Alexandra Symeonidi from William Blair [1] - Rising geopolitical risks and macroeconomic uncertainties have justified the recent increase in gold prices [1] - The ongoing trend of reserve diversification indicates that central banks may continue to be substantial net buyers of gold this year [1]

别急着骂金价贵，咱们得先搞懂是谁在背后推波助澜。 其实，黄金这一轮暴涨，绝不是什么散户炒作，而是四大"核动力"引擎同时点火的结果！ 第一引擎：美元不行了，大家都在"去美元化"。 以前大家觉得美元是"硬通货"，但现在呢？ 美国那边债务高达38万亿美元，还在疯狂印钱。 更要命的是，美国居然把美元当成武器，动不动就威胁制裁欧洲、封锁SWIFT系统。 你看丹麦养老基金，直接宣布清仓所有美债，全换成黄金！ 波兰央行更狠，一口气批准买150吨黄金。这说明什么？全球央行都在用脚投票——美元信用正在崩塌，黄金才是真正的"无国籍货币"！ 王爷说财经讯： 金价彻底疯了！ 你敢信吗？一觉醒来，黄金直接"上天"了！ 就在刚刚过去的周末，国际金融市场炸响了一声惊雷。1月26日， 现货黄金价格像坐了火箭一样，盘中最高直接飙升到5085美元/盎司！这可是人类历史上 从未有过的高点啊！你没看错，不是4000，是实打实的5000美元整数关口被踩在脚下。 什么概念？如果你在一年前买了一根金条，现在已经赚翻了；但如果你现在才想去金店买个戒指，对不起，周大福、老凤祥的足金饰品已经干到了1550元/ 克！这哪里是买首饰，简直是在"吞金"！ 为什么黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The call for Germany to repatriate its gold reserves from the United States has intensified due to changing transatlantic relations and the unpredictability of the Trump administration, with concerns about the safety of these assets in the current geopolitical climate [1][2][3]. Group 1: Calls for Repatriation - German economists and political figures are advocating for the return of gold reserves stored in the U.S., citing increased geopolitical risks and a desire for strategic independence from the U.S. [2][3]. - Emanuel Mnch, former research director of the Deutsche Bundesbank, emphasized that storing gold in the U.S. under the current government poses significant risks [2]. - Politician Strack-Zimmermann highlighted that keeping approximately 37% of Germany's gold reserves in New York is no longer reasonable given the current global uncertainties [1][3]. Group 2: Current Gold Reserves - Germany holds the second-largest gold reserves in the world, valued at nearly €450 billion, with about 37% stored in New York, 12% in London, and the remainder in Frankfurt [3]. - The Deutsche Bundesbank conducts regular audits of its gold supplies, ensuring transparency and security [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - Despite calls for repatriation, Germany's economic ties to the U.S. remain strong, as the American market is a crucial destination for German exports [4]. - The DAX index has shown significant growth, reflecting the continued profitability of German companies, largely driven by the U.S. market [4]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The discussion around repatriating gold has gained traction beyond extreme political factions, indicating a shift in mainstream discourse regarding Germany's financial strategy [2][3]. - Concerns about U.S. actions, such as threats to Greenland and potential tariffs, have prompted reflections on the safety of U.S. assets, including dollar-denominated investments [5][6].

1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元，再度刷新历史新高。去年，国际金价全年涨幅70%左右，创下自1979年石油危机以来年度最大涨幅。今年 以来，国际金价继续强势上涨，目前与年初相比已上涨15%左右。 不同于一般投资品，黄金具备商品属性、金融属性、投资属性等特点。影响黄金价格走势的不只是供需基本面，还有货币政策、对冲风险、对冲通胀等多 重因素。 受国际金价影响，国内金价同样大幅上涨。今年以来，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格多次创下新高，品牌金店的足金饰品报价突破每克1500元。 从国际金价突破整数关口的速度可以观察近期金价上涨的迅猛程度。从每盎司1000美元到2020年8月首次触及2000美元，黄金用了12年半。2023年11月， 国际金价再度触及每盎司2000美元后开始上涨，至2025年3月触及每盎司3000美元，用时17个月左右。之后，国际金价一路上行，至2025年10月，触及每 盎司4000美元，用时7个月左右。而国际金价自每盎司4000美元至今涨破每盎司5000美元，用时仅为3个多月。 避险功能是黄金的重要价值，风险始终是推升金价的"关键词"。今年以来黄金价格上涨的主要推动力，来自地缘政治紧张局势 ...

东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监瞿瑞对《证券日报》记者表示，黄金近两日涨势显著，主因当前地缘政治风险反复。往后 看，短期内需警惕投机资金获利了结离场的风险，金价波动将加大。但中长期来看，金价上涨逻辑依然坚实。 图片来源：金投网 本报记者 孟珂 "展望未来，与其他贵金属相比，黄金由于其地缘敏感性、对冲便利性等原因，在当下宽松预期出现阶段性回调的过程中 仍有望得到其他因素的交替支持，看好长期走势。"博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥对《证券日报》记者表示。 截至1月26日记者发稿，现货黄金最高触及5092.71美元/盎司。值得关注的是，高盛公司将2026年国际金价预期值上调至 5400美元/盎司。高盛分析师在最新报告中指出，此次上调理由是那些将黄金作为应对宏观政策风险的对冲工具而购入黄金的 个人投资者，将会在年底之前继续持有这些黄金头寸。 （编辑 孙倩） 平安证券指出，黄金价格震荡上行。长期来看美国债务问题未解，美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，央行购金以及黄金投资 需求增长，贵金属价格重心或继续抬升。海外宏观不确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。长期来看，美元信用走 弱的主线逻辑愈加清晰，黄金货币属性加速凸显，持续看好黄 ...

UNforex 1 月 26 日讯 随着全球市场风险偏好再度走弱，黄金多头动能明显增强。周一亚洲时段早盘， 现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司这一关键心理关口后继续上行，盘中最高触及5085美元，价格运行区 间被整体抬升，刷新历史高位边界。 从阶段性走势来看，金价延续了上周形成的强势格局。上周累计涨幅超过8%，年初以来涨幅已接近 20%。在较短时间内先后突破4000美元与5000美元两大整数关口，价格运行斜率明显上移，反映出资金 对避险资产的配置意愿仍在持续强化。 近期金价快速上行的核心背景，仍指向地缘政治与贸易政策不确定性的集中释放。围绕格陵兰岛主权及 北极战略利益的问题，美国与欧洲盟友之间的分歧持续发酵，相关表态已对跨大西洋关系及市场风险偏 好构成扰动。 与此同时，特朗普再次将贸易议题推至市场焦点。本周末，其针对加拿大与中国贸易合作发出强硬警 告，并威胁对加拿大商品加征最高达100%的关税。相关言论迅速放大了市场对全球贸易体系再度承压 的担忧情绪，避险资金随之加速流向贵金属资产。在多重政治变量交织之下，黄金的风险对冲属性被重 新评估，其对传统利率与美元因素的敏感度阶段性下降。 政策层面，美联储即将结束本周 ...

政策层面，美联储即将结束本周的议息会议。市场普遍预期政策利率将维持不变，但投资者的关注焦点 已明显从"是否调整利率"转向政策沟通与前瞻指引本身。一方面，交易层面对2026年后货币政策再度转 向宽松的定价仍未完全消退；另一方面，美联储主席鲍威尔在央行独立性问题上的立场，以及对未来数 据路径的判断，将直接影响利率预期的再定价节奏。机构普遍认为，短期内降息条件尚不充分，但政策 不确定性本身已构成对黄金的重要支撑。在低利率环境延续的背景下，无收益资产的持有成本优势依然 存在，这也是金价能够在高位维持强势的重要原因之一。 UNFX 1 月 26 日讯 随着全球风险偏好再度趋紧，黄金市场的多头动能明显增强。周一亚洲交易时段， 现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司这一重要心理关口后延续上行，盘中一度触及5085美元，价格运行区 间被整体抬升，刷新历史高位区间。从阶段性节奏来看，金价延续了上周以来的强势结构。上周黄金累 计涨幅超过8%，年初至今的涨幅已接近20%。在数月时间内先后跨越4000美元与5000美元两大整数关 口，价格运行斜率显著上移，反映出市场对避险资产的配置需求仍在持续强化。 近期金价快速走高的核心驱动，仍指向地 ...

全球央行加快购金步伐，也是今年以来推动黄金价格上涨的重要因素。当地时间1月20日，波兰央行表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将 使该国的黄金储备总量增加到700吨。众多国家央行购金，除了为优化自身外汇储备资产结构，实现资产保值增值，还是为了对冲地缘政治风险而采取的 长远战略。 通过黄金价格变化，一定程度上可以洞察世界经济趋势。总体来说，在经济上行期，市场会更加偏好风险资产，黄金的避险需求相对降低。而当全球经济 遭遇危机和挑战时，投资者为了保值或避险，会倾向于持有黄金，从而推升黄金价格。拉长时间周期来看，本轮国际金价上涨自2019年下半年开启，至 2025年进入加速上涨通道，与美元信用风险暴露、地缘政治风险爆发等因素有关，反映出百年变局加速演进、世界变乱交织，全球经济不确定性上升的深 层次逻辑。 1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元，再度刷新历史新高。去年，国际金价全年涨幅70%左右，创下自1979年石油危机以来年度最大涨幅。今年 以来，国际金价继续强势上涨，目前与年初相比已上涨15%左右。 受国际金价影响，国内金价同样大幅上涨。今年以来，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格多次创下新高，品牌金店 ...