Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with geopolitical factors being the main driver in December. There is a short - term bullish outlook, but trading is difficult due to geopolitical uncertainties. A mid - term shorting opportunity is expected after a pulse - like upward movement [2][3]. - Among chemical products, PX and PTA can maintain a bullish view for now, while the bullish view on methanol is removed. Other products such as styrene, rubber, synthetic rubber, etc., each have their own supply - demand and technical characteristics, with corresponding trading suggestions [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Logic**: Supply - demand and macro - factors have a weak impact on the market. The mid - term expectation of supply surplus remains, but there is short - term trading of supply - demand changes. Geopolitical factors are increasing, and there is a pessimistic view on the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. There may be a pulse - like upward movement due to the risk escalation in the Caribbean [2][3]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [3]. Styrene - **Logic**: Short - term supply has decreased due to increased maintenance, and two consecutive weeks of inventory reduction have improved short - term supply - demand. However, mid - term inventory pressure is high, and there may be a risk of inventory overstocking [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait for an opportunity to try long after a pull - back without breaking the support [6]. Rubber - **Logic**: There are no major short - term contradictions. Tire demand has limited growth, and the supply side is in the peak tapping season. There is no clear upward or downward driving force, so it is treated with a volatile view [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The core of synthetic rubber lies in the supply - demand of raw material butadiene. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but there is still mid - term inventory pressure [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [14]. PX - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but the supply - demand situation is still relatively strong in the chemical industry, and attention should be paid to the cost - end impact of crude oil [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 6700 [17]. PTA - **Logic**: The upward driving force has weakened, but short - term supply - demand pressure is not significant. Attention should be paid to cost - end driving [20]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term upward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold long positions on the hourly level, with a stop - loss reference of 4620 (01 contract) [20]. PP - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [22]. - **Technical Analysis**: A short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [22]. Methanol - **Logic**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and demand is weak. Although the port inventory has decreased, the rate of decrease has slowed down, and there is high - level inventory pressure. The previous upward driving force has ended, and the short - term bullish view is removed [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward and short - term volatile structure. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [23]. PVC - **Logic**: Future maintenance plans are limited, and production is at a high level. There are expectations of production reduction due to profit decline, but demand is weak, and inventory is high. There is no upward driving force, and short - selling has limited value [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term downward structure on the daily chart and a short - term volatile structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Logic**: Domestic production is at a high level, and new production capacity has increased supply pressure. Demand from downstream polyester is stable, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [29]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [29]. Plastic - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level and demand is weak, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. Attention should be paid to short - term geopolitical risks in crude oil [30]. - **Technical Analysis**: A mid - term and short - term downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. Soda Ash - **Logic**: High supply and high inventory continue, and the demand from downstream glass has decreased. Although the downward driving force remains, the cost - effectiveness of holding short positions has decreased [33]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to hold the remaining short positions on the hourly cycle with a stop - profit reference of 1155 [33]. Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is at a high level, and traditional downstream demand is in the off - season. Inventory has reached a new high, and the downward driving force remains, but there is limited space for short - selling [36]. - **Technical Analysis**: A downward structure on the hourly chart. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle [36].

投资咨询系列报告 更新时间：2025年12月08日16时14分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属高位分化，沪金主力收涨0.15%，沪银主力收涨2.06%，铂金主力收涨0.66%，钯金主力收涨涨1.07%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期仍存。②避险属性方面，普京会见特朗普 特使和库什纳，讨论结束乌克兰战争的可能途径。中美经贸磋商成果共识公布。中东等地缘异动风险仍存。③货币属性方面，美联 储理事沃勒和纽约联储威廉姆斯讲话共同提高美联储降息可能性。美联储褐皮书显示，美国经济活动变化不大，但政府停摆令多地 需求受抑。美国9月消费者支出温和增长，通胀创近一年半最快增速。美国上周初请失业金人数意外减少2.7万人至19.1万人，为 2022年9月以来的最低水平。美国政府结束停摆，市场等待更多经济数据指引。目前市场预期美联储12月降息25基点概率暴涨至 80%以上。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。需求端氢能产业 被列为战略新兴产业，对铂基催化剂的需求形成长期强劲预期。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。⑤预 ...

美联储降息预期强烈，政策分歧引市场博弈：市场对美联储12月9-10日议息会议降息的预期是当下核心 影响因素。芝商所FedWatch工具显示本次降息25个基点的概率达87%，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯释放鸽派 信号，旧金山联储主席戴利更是明确支持12月降息。不过分歧依旧存在，3位有投票权的地区联储主席 坚持通胀偏高论调。市场除关注本次降息动作外，更聚焦2026年利率路径点阵图，其释放的信号将大概 率决定年末黄金行情基调。 美元指数在上周五探底回升，但整体维持在近期区间内，收报99.00，下跌0.05%，上周累计下跌 0.47%，为连续两周下滑。美国国债市场在上周五表现强劲，价格下跌推动收益率升至数周高位，10年 期国债收益率上涨3.1个基点至4.139%，上周累计上涨12.2个基点，创下4月初以来最大单周涨幅；30年 期国债收益率上涨3个基点至4.794%，上周涨幅达12.4个基点，为八个月来最大；两年期国债收益率上 涨3.4个基点至3.565%，上周涨幅7.3个基点，创10月下旬以来新高。这反映了投资者对美联储鹰派降息 的谨慎预期。 来源：市场资讯 12月8日，周一，亚市早盘时段，现货黄金微涨十美金后又小幅度回落， ...

12月08日：黄金市场上周：国际现货黄金震荡收跌，相对于前周振幅明显收窄，多头动力减弱，但目前 仍运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带保持向上发展，基本面也未有持续且较大的利空因素，故此，前景 上，仍具有看涨新高预期。 具体走势上，金价自周初开于4221.37美元/盎司，先行录得当周高点4264.57美元，之后遇阻回撤，于周 二录得当周低点4163.81美元，据此开始连续不断冲高回落和触底回升走盘，延续至周五触及周高点附 近后，再度回撤走低，最终收于4194.36美元，周振幅100.76美元，收跌27.01美元，跌幅0.64%。 周线级别，金价在近几周震荡调整，低点不断上移的同时，持续受到10周均线支撑，而在前周强势反弹 走强拉升，多头占据优势，布林带向上延伸，看涨前景良好，虽然上周多头动力虽有减弱，但未跌至5- 10周均线下方，故此在此之上，仍可继续看涨入场，等待再度上探历史高点附近或更高位置。 影响上，虽然周内受到12月降息预期的提振，以及部分数据的疲软支撑，而展现看涨预期，但在技术阻 力压制之下，以及在等待众多数据公布指引政策前景之前的等待和观望，而不断调整波动； 虽然周五美国9月核心PCE物价指数年率显示 ...

摘要今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d(上海黄金现货品种)当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。 较昨日收盘价下跌1.28元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价 为955.03元/克。 今日周五(12月5日)亚盘时段，黄金t+d当前报价951.78元/克，盘中正常交易。较昨日收盘价下跌1.28 元，跌幅0.13%；日内最高触及961.29元/克，最低下探至949.8元/克，今日开盘价为955.03元/克。 【要闻速递】 资金流向分化显著，多空激战正酣：资金层面呈现主权资金与投机资金对峙格局。主权资金坚定增持， 为金价提供坚实支撑；而短线投机资金则在高位撤退，全球最大对冲基金桥水已清仓黄金持仓，黄金 ETF-SPDR亦出现1.71吨净减持。同时，伦敦金未平仓合约攀升至45万手，处于高位博弈状态。这种资 金结构的分化，使得黄金市场波动风险进一步加剧。 【最新黄金t+d行情解析】 黄金t+d当前围绕951.78元/克窄幅波动，较昨收跌0.13%，日内高低点分别为961.29元与949.8元，呈冲高 回落格局。日线暂守于950元心理关口之上，但未能延续反 ...

12月7日公布的官方数据显示，我国11月末黄金储备报7412万盎司。这一数据环比增加3万盎司，系连续第13个月增持。现货金价目前在4200美元附近维持震 荡态势。美元指数近期出现小幅反弹，对金价上行形成限制。市场整体呈现出区间波动的特征。 外汇储备规模受估值影响回升 国家外汇管理局统计显示，11月末外汇储备规模为33464亿美元。该数值较10月末上升30亿美元，升幅为0.09%。汇率折算与资产价格变化共同推动了规模 回升。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，11月"美元指数小幅下跌0.3%"，带动非美资产升值。美联储降息预期升温导致美债收益率下行。美债价格走高也 增加了外储月末估值。 央行购金策略显现优化迹象 央行增持黄金的节奏在近期呈现放缓态势。11月增持量与上月持平，均为3万盎司。这一增持规模处于2024年11月恢复增持以来的最低水平。中银证券全球 首席经济学家管涛曾测算认为，中国在增持过程中更加注意"逢低买入而不是追高"。 对于官方储备结构的调整逻辑，王青分析称，央行持续小幅增持"释放了优化国际储备的信号"。目前黄金储备占比为8.0%，仍低于全球平均水平。国家金融 与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟认为，央行在 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Global debt inflation expectations support precious metal prices. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is still over 80%, and multiple countries' governments have introduced fiscal easing policies, leading to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth. Central banks of many countries are continuously buying gold, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the long - and medium - term [1] - The global platinum supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 is expected to be tight, but high platinum prices may suppress downstream demand and cause price adjustments [1] - The global lithium supply - demand outlook for 2025 - 2026 may change from tight to loose, and multiple factors may cause lithium price adjustments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Gold**: Shanghai gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 961.04 yuan/gram, with a change of - 2.24 compared to the previous day and 7.62 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 237,697.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 91,299.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX gold futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,237.90 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 190,889.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 36,310,675.24 (in troy ounces). London gold spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 4,200.60 dollars/ounce [1] - **Silver**: Shanghai silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 13,687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 2,703,384.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 687,956.00 (in ten - grams). COMEX silver futures closing price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 53.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week; trading volume on 2025 - 12 - 05 was 5,227.00; inventory on 2025 - 12 - 01 was 457,220,650.80 (in troy ounces). London silver spot price on 2025 - 12 - 04 was 57.57 dollars/ounce [1] Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2,305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1] - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, generally in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest level at the beginning of the year [1] Trading Strategies - **Gold and Silver**: Buy on price dips. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,900 - 4,100 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 and the resistance level around 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 and the resistance level around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 12,500 - 15,000 and the resistance level around 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - **Platinum**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading, and cautiously hold "long platinum, short palladium" long positions. For London platinum price, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum price, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 and the resistance level around 465 - 516 [1] - **Lithium**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading. For London lithium price, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic lithium price, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 and the resistance level around 415 - 465 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of gold is experiencing fluctuations, with significant resistance at 4260 and support levels around 4163 and 4131, indicating a potential for further testing of these levels in the near term [1][4]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices initially rose to 4264 but faced resistance and retreated, closing at 4196 after a drop below the 4200 mark [1]. - Factors supporting gold include a nearly 90% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine, and ongoing gold purchases by global central banks [1]. - Strong U.S. non-farm payroll data for November has stabilized the U.S. dollar, putting pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests looking for short positions in the 4215-4220 range, with a focus on entering short at 4208 if the market weakens [4]. - Initial support is noted at the recent low of 4163, with further attention on 4131 and a critical level at 4084 for unexpected weakness [1][4]. - The potential for upward movement exists if gold can break above 4260, with targets set at 4300 and possibly 4350 [1].

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of November 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $33,464 billion, an increase of $30 billion from the end of October, representing a growth rate of 0.09% [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to factors such as macroeconomic data from major economies and expectations regarding monetary policy, which led to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance in global financial asset prices [1] - China's economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - As of the end of November, China's gold reserves stood at 7,412 million ounces (approximately 2,305.39 tons), with a month-on-month increase of 3,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - The current spot gold price has decreased by 0.28% to $4,197 per ounce [2] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold has entered its third upward cycle since 2019, with a cumulative increase of 219% over six years, indicating potential for further growth compared to previous cycles [3] - The rise in gold prices is supported by three attributes: monetary (challenges to the US dollar credit system), commodity (average annual growth of central bank gold purchases from 2020 to 2024 at 44%), and financial (the pricing framework of real interest rates partially failing in a high inflation environment) [3] - Key variables influencing future gold prices include geopolitical risks, growth in gold reserves, and changes in real interest rates [3] Group 4: Future Gold Demand and Price Projections - Official demand for gold is expected to replace price-sensitive consumer demand, with projections indicating a rebound to 1,053 tons per year by 2026 [4] - The normalization of inflows into gold ETFs has led to a significant upward revision of the average price target for 2026 from $4,000 per ounce to $4,450 per ounce [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with recent price movements indicating a potential for both upward and downward trends, influenced by various economic factors and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - On December 5, gold prices initially rose to around $4260 but then fell sharply to approximately $4190, resulting in a daily decline of about $70, closing at $4197.83, down 0.21% for the day and 0.74% for the week [1]. - The current gold market is characterized by a solid support base, but lacks new positive drivers, leading to expectations of short-term price fluctuations [2]. Group 2: Economic Influences - Goldman Sachs indicates a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which, along with geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, supports a long-term bullish outlook for gold [2]. - Citigroup highlights the "long tail effect" of geopolitical risks and ongoing central bank gold purchases as factors providing downside protection for gold prices, with a long-term target of $4500 [2]. Group 3: Price Projections - The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a strong $200 rally, with key resistance at $4220 and support around $4100 [3]. - If gold prices can stabilize above $4220, there is potential to test previous highs near $4264; however, if prices fall below $4185, the next support level to watch is around $4163 [3].