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全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20260126
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-26 05:44
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | US Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-Shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [28] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets face high geopolitical risks, with persistent concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the fiscal sustainability of developed economies. The risk aversion sentiment remains high, and the market is expected to maintain high volatility. The US and Japan's potential joint intervention in the foreign exchange market increases the downward pressure on the US dollar index, while the yen appreciates significantly [5]. - In the domestic market, although most of the economic data in December were below market expectations, the annual economic growth rate reached the 5% target. Policies such as investment and national subsidies at the beginning of the year are taking effect, and some domestic demand - related data have the potential for marginal improvement. The bond market remains under bearish pressure, while the stock market continues its slow - bull pattern but faces regulatory cooling in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, including the sovereignty dispute over Greenland and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. The expansionary fiscal policy expectations in Japan challenge the country's fiscal discipline, leading to a rise in global sovereign bond yields [5]. - In the domestic market, the economic data in December were mostly disappointing, but the full - year economic growth target was achieved. Policies are being implemented, and there is potential for marginal improvement in domestic demand - related data [5]. 3.2 Global Overview of Major Asset Trends 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global stock markets fluctuated and adjusted this week, with mixed performance. In developed countries, the S&P 500 fell 0.35%, the German DAX fell 1.57%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.17%, while the South Korean KOSPI rose 3.08%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.36%, and the Brazilian IBOVESPA rose 8.53% [7][8]. - The performance of MSCI indices was differentiated, with emerging markets > frontier markets > global markets > developed markets [8]. 3.2.2 Currency Market - The US dollar index weakened rapidly, depreciating 1.88% to 97.5. The RMB exchange - rate index appreciated slightly, and the RMB against the US dollar continued to appreciate 0.07%. Most emerging - market currencies and developed - market currencies appreciated, such as the Mexican peso (1.44%), the Brazilian real (1.49%), the euro (1.95%), and the yen (1.49%) [9][10]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - The yields of ten - year government bonds in major developed countries rose significantly, mainly due to concerns about Japan's radical fiscal policy. The yield of US Treasury bonds remained unchanged at 4.24%, the yield of UK Treasury bonds rose 7bp, and the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds rose 6bp. In emerging - market countries, the yield of Chinese Treasury bonds fell 1bp to 1.83%, the yield of Indian Treasury bonds fell 1bp, and the yield of Brazilian Treasury bonds fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - The global commodity market oscillated and rose this week, with energy and precious - metal prices leading the increase. WTI crude oil rose 3.48%, natural gas rose 17%, COMEX gold rose 8.3%, and silver rose 14.8%. In the domestic commodity market, most commodities rose, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy and chemicals > industrial products > agricultural products > black metals [22][26]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Major Assets 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate. Geopolitical tensions drive funds into precious metals, but after a rapid rise, gold price volatility is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before making long - positions [28][30]. - The speculative net long - positions in Comex gold futures rebounded slightly, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF increased slightly to 1,086 tons, and the positions of Shanghai gold futures rose to around 360,000 lots. The silver price showed a frothy trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of a market reversal [40]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar is bearish. Geopolitical risks are rising, and the process of de - dollarization is accelerating, leading to a short - term weakness in the US dollar [28][41]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks are expected to oscillate. Geopolitical conflicts still have the risk of fermentation. With the approaching of the January FOMC meeting and the earnings season of technology giants, market sentiment is expected to remain cautious, and the volatility of the US stock market may further increase [28][44]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - A - shares are expected to oscillate. The domestic stock market continues to face a pattern of differentiation. The core contradiction is between the bottom - up bull - market expectations and the top - down regulatory cooling. The regulatory authorities may take more strict and precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market may continue to oscillate at a high level [28][58]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate. The bond - market rebound may not be over, but the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. The net financing of government bonds will decrease next week, and the market news will be calm, but risks such as an unexpected increase in the manufacturing PMI still need to be vigilant [28][61]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data - The US economy remains resilient, with the GDPNow model estimating a Q4 growth rate of 5.4% and the red - book retail sales growing 5.5% year - on - year. The employment market also remains stable, with the number of continued unemployment claims falling to 1.849 million and the number of initial claims remaining at 200,000 [77]. - The liquidity in the US banking - system is expected to improve, the credit spread of high - yield corporate bonds is oscillating and falling, and the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has changed little. The probability of a pause in interest - rate cuts in January has risen to 95.6%, and it is expected that there will be only 1 - 2 interest - rate cuts in 2026, more likely in the second half of the year [84]. - In December, the US CPI increased 2.7% year - on - year as expected, and the core CPI increased 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 and lower than expected. The PPI rebounded to 3% in November, mainly driven by energy prices, and the core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year in November, in line with market expectations [87]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data - The real - estate market remains weak, with only a seasonal rebound in second - hand housing transactions. The market is still waiting and seeing, and the follow - up of new policies in Shanghai and Shenzhen is slow [93]. - As of January 23, the R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.54%, 1.49%, 1.40%, and 1.49% respectively, with slight changes from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 8.57 trillion yuan, slightly less than last week, and the overnight trading volume accounted for 90.49%, slightly higher than the previous week [96]. - In December, the economic data showed a pattern of overall weakness, with supply stronger than demand and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The growth rate of industrial added value, exports, and service production increased, while the growth rate of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and real - estate investment decreased [97]. - In December, the financial data showed that the private sector, especially the household sector, had a low willingness to borrow actively. However, there were also some positive changes, such as an increase in short - term and medium - long - term loans of the enterprise sector, an increase in the issuance scale of enterprise bonds, and a slight increase in entrusted loans [102]. - In December, the PPI increased - 1.9% year - on - year, and the CPI increased 0.80% year - on - year, both showing a recovery trend. In the future, inflation is expected to continue to rise due to policy support and rising commodity prices [109]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of exports and imports exceeded expectations, with exports growing 6.6% and imports growing 5.7%. In the future, exports are expected to maintain their resilience, and imports are expected to recover moderately [115].
从单一标识管理向认证全链条监管转变!我国绿色产品认证新规出台
Xin Hua Wang· 2026-01-04 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The revision of the "Green Product Certification and Labeling Management Measures" signifies a shift in China's green product certification system from a single-label management approach to a comprehensive regulatory framework covering the entire certification process [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The new measures are based on principles of "unified product catalog, unified evaluation standards, unified certification rules, and unified product labeling" [1] - The framework focuses on the entire process of green product certification, establishing a clear classification and management approach [1] - Specific regulations regarding certification implementation, certificate management, labeling usage, and supervisory responsibilities have been detailed [1] Group 2: Certification Statistics - The green product certification catalog currently includes 122 types of products closely related to consumers, such as electronics, furniture, building materials, express packaging, and textiles [1] - Nearly 40,000 effective certification certificates have been issued, involving over 8,000 certified enterprises [1]
福州大学发布《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-12-26 12:21
该报告通过构建智力资本信息披露指数,对福建省上市公司的智力资本信息披露水平进行测度评价,指 出2022—2024年,福建省A股上市公司的总体智力资本以及人力资本、结构资本的信息披露水平有所提 高,但不同公司间的披露水平差异呈扩大趋势。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 转自:新华财经 2025年12月25日上午,《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》发布会在福州大学召 开。来自福建省上市公司协会,以及省内高校、券商、基金公司、上市公司的代表参加了本次发布会。 《福建省上市公司智力资本信息披露评价报告(2025)》是福州大学智力资本蓝皮书课题的重要研究成 果,由福州大学智力资本课题组完成,科学出版社出版,是国内外第一本智力资本蓝皮书。 该报告根据上市公司智力资本信息披露指数得分对上市公司进行评级,其中,2024年入围智力资本信息 披露指数评级榜的上市公司共123家,获评A+级、A级、B+级、B级、C+级与C级的上市公司分别有9 家、9家、19家、15家、33家、38家。获得A+级的公司为三钢闽光、恺英网络、昇兴股份、吉宏股份、 青松股份、宁德时代、片仔癀、龙高股份、特宝生物。此外 ...
阿尔及利亚将33类产品纳入运输费用报销补贴范围
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-19 15:49
(原标题:阿尔及利亚将33类产品纳入运输费用报销补贴范围) 报道指出,运输费用报销仅适用于向特定省份供应上述产品。相关省份主要位于南部和撒哈拉地区,包 括阿德拉尔、塔曼拉塞特、廷杜夫、伊利齐、贝沙尔、瓦尔格拉、瓦迪、盖尔达耶、贝伊德、纳阿马、 提米蒙、博尔吉·巴吉·穆赫塔尔、贝尼阿巴斯、因萨拉赫、因盖扎姆、图古尔特、贾奈特、梅盖耶尔和 梅尼亚等。 据阿尔及利亚媒体 TSA 12月16日报道,阿尔及利亚政府公布最新清单,明确33类产品符合国家运输费 用补贴条件,进一步扩大对民生和基础物资的支持范围。 报道称,纳入补贴范围的产品主要包括面粉、粗麦粉、西红柿、洋葱、大蒜、西葫芦、胡萝卜、生菜、 鸡蛋、鲜冻红肉和白肉、食用液态奶、婴幼儿食品、咖啡、茶、糖、番茄酱、酵母、豆类、大米、意大 利面、食用油等基本食品。同时,补贴还涵盖饲料、洗衣皂、食用马铃薯、学生用品、丁烷气、药品、 建筑材料(钢筋、木材、焊接网)、乳粉及无水乳脂、散装燃气、加工工业包装材料以及图书。 据悉,该政策依据 2024 年 3 月 31 日颁布的第 24-115 号行政法令实施,旨在通过国家承担部分运 输成本,缓解北向南运输费用持续上涨对物价的影响 ...
广州三商玻璃有限公司成立 注册资本5万人民币
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 09:35
Group 1 - Guangzhou Sanshang Glass Co., Ltd. has been established with a registered capital of 50,000 RMB [1] - The legal representative of the company is Li Panding [1] - The business scope includes sales of technical glass products, molds, metal products, special ceramic products, cosmetics wholesale, daily necessities sales, and various other materials and services [1] Group 2 - The company is involved in the sales of high-performance non-ferrous metals and alloys, new metal functional materials, and new ceramic materials [1] - Internet sales (excluding goods requiring permits) and packaging services are also part of the company's operations [1] - The company offers professional design services and retail of various consumer goods, including cosmetics and daily glass products [1]
官宣,又一个14万亿大省来了
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-11 14:58
Group 1 - Jiangsu's GDP is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan, marking a significant milestone in its economic development [1][2] - The province aims to enhance its contribution to national economic growth, improve its radiating and driving capabilities, and increase development coordination and international competitiveness [2] - Jiangsu's manufacturing industry remains robust, with a projected added value of 4.63 trillion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position as the top manufacturing province in China [2] Group 2 - Jiangsu has the highest number of "trillion-yuan cities" in China, with cities like Suzhou, Nanjing, and Wuxi leading the way, and Xuzhou expected to join this group [3] - The province emphasizes expanding domestic demand as a strategic initiative, enhancing its role in economic growth [3] - Jiangsu's innovative consumption initiatives have gained national attention, reflecting its commitment to driving economic activity [3]
当“科学图纸”遇见“湾区产线”:一场关于未来的“硬核交易”
Feng Huang Wang Cai Jing· 2025-12-08 08:41
中国科学院拿出一份列着"低空资源智能动态监测"和"波浪能驱动的人工上升流海洋牧场"等项目的成果单子。广东工程师们知道,这不只是买一批设备,而 是认购一份未来产业规则的"期权"。 "飞发一体数字孪生虚实融合试验装置"、"靶向ecDNA抗肿瘤策略"、"强流重离子加速器装置",这些项目听起来像是来自未来的"产业蓝图",当这份蓝图交 到广东制造业手中时,一场悄无声息的对话悄然展开:科学家们用最前沿的"科学语言",向全球最具效率的制造集群,推销一个关于未来产业的"硬核未 来"。 科幻与现实的碰撞 一边是实验室里的"星辰大海"——有用来管整片天空的"低空资源智能动态监测、评估与功能区划体系",有模仿自然为深海"施肥"的"波浪能驱动的人工上 升流",还有研究生命最根本秘密的"人类细胞谱系大科学研究设施",它们不是单纯的产品或零件,它们解决的是一种全新产业架构的基础性问题。 另一边是广东制造业的"脚踏实地"——广东强项在制造:图纸确定后,便能以最快速度、最优成本把构想变成成品,从东莞智能手机到佛山家电,背后故事 都是:精准理解需求、优化生产流程、大规模制造。两者碰撞,成了这场对接会的核心张力。 "无用"之用:为何为"基础设施 ...
市场继续缩量
Minsheng Securities· 2025-11-16 13:04
- The report constructs an ETF hotspot trend strategy based on the highest and lowest price trends of ETFs, selecting those with both highest and lowest prices in an upward trend. Further, it constructs a support-resistance factor based on the relative steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days, and selects the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the past 5 days/20 days to construct a risk parity portfolio[27][30] - The report tracks the performance of various style factors, noting that the value factor recorded a positive return of 2.36%, the leverage factor recorded a positive return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor slightly rebounded with a return of 0.19%[41][42] - The report evaluates the performance of different alpha factors, highlighting that the quick ratio factor had the best performance with a weekly excess return of 1.32%, followed by the debt-asset ratio factor with a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor with a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47] - The ETF hotspot trend strategy recorded a cumulative excess return over the CSI 300 index since the beginning of the year[28][29] - The value factor achieved a weekly return of 2.36%, the leverage factor achieved a weekly return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor achieved a weekly return of 0.19%[41][42] - The quick ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.32%, the debt-asset ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47]
南方基金:A股进入“真空期”,后市如何演绎?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 01:48
Group 1 - A-share market environment remains positive with overall profit levels showing steady growth, particularly in the technology sector, where net profit increased by 11.30% year-on-year in Q3 [2][5] - The technology sector's performance is highlighted by significant profit growth in software services (121.6%) and semiconductors (46.6%) [5][6] - Other industries such as steel, media, and building materials also showed substantial improvement in profitability [5][6] Group 2 - The reduction of trade tensions between China and the U.S. is evident as the U.S. Senate passed a resolution to terminate comprehensive tariff policies, signaling a decrease in external disturbance factors [7] - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a potential further cut in December, is expected to benefit the Chinese economy by improving external demand and attracting capital inflow [8] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the U.S. may stabilize the RMB exchange rate and reduce capital outflow pressure, potentially attracting more international capital into Chinese asset markets [8] Group 3 - The market is entering a "vacuum period," characterized by a lack of major catalysts for significant index movements, but investor sentiment remains optimistic with high financing balances [9][10] - Despite the market's current fluctuations, structural opportunities still exist, particularly in traditional industries and the technology sector [10] - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced perspective during this period, using it as an opportunity to adjust investment portfolios [10]
宁夏润赢工贸有限公司成立 注册资本1000万人民币
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 11:52
Core Insights - Ningxia Runying Industrial and Trade Co., Ltd. has recently been established with a registered capital of 10 million RMB [1] - The company is involved in a wide range of business activities, including the sale of petroleum products, chemical products, lubricants, and various materials [1] Company Overview - The legal representative of the company is Feng Runjun [1] - The registered capital is 10 million RMB [1] Business Scope - The company operates in general projects such as: - Sales of petroleum products (excluding hazardous chemicals) [1] - Sales of chemical products (excluding licensed chemical products) [1] - Sales of lubricants and specialized chemical products (excluding hazardous chemicals) [1] - Sales of metal materials and non-ferrous metal alloys [1] - Wholesale of automotive parts and rubber products [1] - Sales of environmental protection equipment, construction materials, electronic products, and hardware [1] - Internet sales (excluding licensed products) [1] - Leasing of machinery and equipment [1] - Sales of textiles, plastics, and various technical services [1] Licensing and Regulatory Compliance - The company is authorized to engage in licensed projects such as: - Onshore oil and natural gas extraction [1] - Transportation of hazardous goods by road [1] - Transportation of goods by road (excluding hazardous goods) [1] - The company must obtain approval from relevant authorities to conduct licensed activities [1]