Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On May 15, polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 37,920 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.68%, and the position decreasing by 6,707 lots to 37,985 lots. The spot price of SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material was 38,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 830 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 8,410 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.36%, and the position decreasing by 22,511 lots to 12,400 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,552 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,300 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors in the market that six major crystalline silicon companies will jointly acquire production capacity and cut production, but the implementation still needs to be verified. The industry will hold another meeting regarding self - restricted production and price support for polysilicon, and the release schedule of planned new production capacity may be postponed [2]. - As the delivery period approaches, the ratio of virtual to real warehouse receipts for polysilicon is too high, providing short - term space for bulls. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have not improved, and the futures price has not been driven by crystalline silicon, continuing to be weak. It is necessary to track the meeting results and the movement of warehouse receipts and be vigilant against abnormal risks before the delivery month [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures Settlement Price**: The futures settlement prices of both industrial silicon and polysilicon's main and near - month contracts remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton and 37,920 yuan/ton respectively on May 15 and 16 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon, organic silicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells are provided, with most data for May 16 marked as unavailable. The current lowest deliverable price of industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of polysilicon is 38,750 yuan/ton. The spot discount of industrial silicon widened to 150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon narrowed to 830 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: For industrial silicon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 10,820 tons to 336,690 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 250,000 tons, with the total social inventory decreasing by 3,800 tons to 417,000 tons. For polysilicon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 28.72 million tons, with the total social inventory increasing by 0.3 million tons to 28.7 million tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][6][7][8][9][10]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][15][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][21][23]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][34]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. The team has won the awards of the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metals Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [36]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [36]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical news affects oil prices frequently, and in the absence of an OPEC statement on July production policy, oil prices are expected to oscillate. Macro factors are currently stable, with short - term Brent expected to trade between $62 - 65 per barrel and medium - term between $60 - 70 per barrel [2]. - For asphalt, supply has increased while demand is stable. Low inventory supports spot prices and benefits the peak - season outlook. With oil prices under pressure, asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and the asphalt/oil price spread may widen [6]. - LPG is under pressure due to lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand, especially in the chemical sector. The market is expected to operate weakly [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has abundant short - term supply in Asia but a medium - term supply gap. Seasonal power - generation demand is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising while demand is weak [11]. - Natural gas in the US is expected to oscillate weakly due to maintenance at export terminals, increased inventory, and slightly decreased production. European natural gas may oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and supply - demand factors [12][13]. - PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels due to increased maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap [14][18]. - Ethylene glycol supply has tightened due to maintenance, and demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate [19]. - Short - fiber and PR (bottle - chip) are expected to oscillate at high levels, following the trend of polyester raw materials [21][22]. - Styrene supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on demand in the off - season, inventory changes, and export orders [23]. - Polyolefins face large production - capacity pressure in the 09 contract. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - Glass is in a supply - surplus situation, with weak downstream demand. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [33]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, and demand is lackluster. The 09 contract faces multiple pressures, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [35]. - Urea inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable. Buying on dips is recommended [38]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - Pulp prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract [45]. - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract [48]. - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 07 contract and reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread [51]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $61.62, down $1.53 (-2.42%); Brent2507 settled at $64.53, down $1.56 (-2.36%); SC2507 closed at 471.7 yuan/barrel, down 6.6 yuan, and dropped 10.1 yuan in night trading to 461.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent front - to - second - line spread was $0.50 per barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Trump said the US is close to a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps. Russia and Ukraine are to hold peace talks, and the IEA adjusted supply and demand forecasts [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical news affects oil prices, and without OPEC's July production policy, oil prices lack a clear trend and are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stabilizing; hold off on options [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3469 points (+0.09%) in night trading, and BU2509 closed at 3403 points (+0.24%). Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: In Shandong, prices were stable, with increased refinery shipments. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable, and some refineries planned to cut production. In South China, prices were stable, and demand is expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and low inventory supported prices. Oil price pressure may limit asphalt price increases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; the asphalt - oil spread is expected to strengthen; hold off on options [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4278 (-0.53%) in night trading, and PG2507 closed at 4190 (-0.4%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [6]. - **Related News**: In South China, prices fell and may stabilize. In East China, prices declined slightly, and in Shandong, prices were mixed [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand in the chemical sector put pressure on the LPG market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak oscillation for single - sided trading [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2991 (-1.16%) in night trading, and LU07 closed at 3596 (-1.18%). Singapore's high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads increased [9]. - **Related News**: Dangote refinery plans to sell fuel oil, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - month low, and Russian exports decreased [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply is abundant in the short term but has a medium - term gap. Low - sulfur supply is increasing while demand is weak [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on single - sided trading; take profits on the FU 9 - 1 calendar spread [11]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.358 (-3.72%), TTF at 35.294 (+0.7%), and JKM at 11.88 (-0.04%) [12]. - **Related News**: Maintenance at US export terminals led to a price drop, and inventory increased [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas is expected to oscillate weakly, while European natural gas may oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak oscillation for HH single - sided trading, strong oscillation for TTF single - sided trading [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6762 (-1.72%) and 6784 (+0.33%) in night trading. Spot prices decreased [13][14]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and PX and PTA operating rates changed [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Increased PX maintenance and strong gasoline demand tightened the PX supply - demand structure, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [15][16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4798 (-1.56%) and 4816 (+0.38%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, PTA and polyester operating rates changed, and some PTA plants planned to restart [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple PTA plant maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap support high - level price oscillation [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4461 (-1.00%) and 4503 (+0.94%) in night trading. Spot and futures basis were reported [19]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Maintenance tightened supply, and improved demand is expected to lead to a better supply - demand pattern and port de - stocking [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6570 (-0.82%) and 6586 (+0.24%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and downstream operating rates changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Follow the trend of polyester raw materials and oscillate at high levels [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [21]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6116 (-1.35%) and 6140 (+0.39%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export prices were adjusted [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: New production capacity increases supply pressure, but demand is supported, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [22]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2506 closed at 7739 (-0.09%) and 7808 (+0.89%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [23]. - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on multiple factors [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Review**: L2509 closed at 7298 (-0.56%) and 7271 (-0.37%) in night trading; PP2509 closed at 7161 (-0.44%) and 7140 (-0.29%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [25]. - **Related News**: Operating rates, inventory levels, and market rumors were reported [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: New production capacity exerts pressure, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation in the short term, bearish in the medium term for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: SH509 closed at 2567 (+1.46%) and 2541 (-1.01%) in night trading; V2509 closed at 5041 (+1.10%) and 5006 (-0.69%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [28]. - **Related News**: Price adjustments and market changes were reported [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on spreads and options; short - term strong oscillation and long - term short - selling for PVC; short - term observation and medium - term short - selling for caustic soda [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1036 (-0.96%) and 1025 (-1.06%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [32]. - **Related News**: Market prices were stable with minor fluctuations, production and inventory data were reported [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in surplus, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash 09 contract closed at 1330 (-1.1%) and 1323 (-0.5%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [34][35]. - **Related News**: Market trends, production, inventory, and profit data were reported [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is lackluster, and the 09 contract faces multiple pressures [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell both calls and puts for options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1892 (+0.32%). Spot prices were reported [37]. - **Related News**: Capacity utilization rates changed, and export - related discussions were held [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buying on dips for single - sided trading [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2318 (-0.77%). Spot prices were reported [41]. - **Related News**: MTO capacity utilization increased [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply increases, domestic supply is loose, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term observation, long - term selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell calls for options [42]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP 07 contract closed at 5370 (-0.30%). Spot prices were reported [42][44]. - **Related News**: The paper industry showed signs of improvement [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are expected to oscillate [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract; hold off on spreads [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - **Market Review**: RU 09 closed at 15075 (-0.10%); NR 07 closed at 12835 (-0.04%). Spot prices were reported [46]. - **Related News**: The European automotive market is stagnant [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tire production and inventory data were reported [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract; hold off on spreads and options [48]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR 07 closed at 12405 (+0.40%). Spot prices were reported [49]. - **Related News**: The European automotive market is stagnant [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tire production and inventory data were reported [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 07 contract; reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell the BR2507 put 11200 contract [51][53].

集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约日内跌超5%。 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花 | 震荡 | | 数据速览 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 外盘报价 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 美白糖（美元） | 18.08 | 17.66 | -2.32% | | | 美棉花（美元） | 65.55 | 65.49 | -0.09% | | 现货价格 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | 白糖（南宁） | 6185.0 | 6165.0 | -0.32% | | | 白糖（昆明） | 5995.0 | 6000.0 | 0.08% | | | 棉花指数 328 | 3281 | 3280 | 0.28% | | | 棉花（新疆） | 14350.0 | 14450.0 | 0.70% | | 价差速览 | | 2025-05-14 | 2025-05-15 | 涨跌幅 | | | SR01-05 | -321.0 | -320.0 | -0.31% | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: May 15, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,490, down 45; volume was 23,577, down 6,329; open interest was 103,064, up 2,346 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,165, down 45; volume was 1,878, down 1,453; open interest was 27,255, down 1,347 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,415, down 30; volume was 210,352, down 19,764; open interest was 572,790, up 266 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,710, up 210; volume was 1, up 1; open interest was 10, up 1 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, down 100; volume was 2, up 2; open interest was 156, up 2 [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,655, down 40; volume was 302, up 56; open interest was 1,245, down 48 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,484 yuan/ton, up 100; CY IndexC32S was 20,520, down 550 [3] - Cot A was 78.00 cents/pound, down 0.25; FCY IndexC33S was 21,899, up 75 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.47, down 0.40; Indian S - 6 was 54,400, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,100, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,800, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month was 325, unchanged; 5 - 9 month was - 250, down 15; 9 - 1 month was - 75, up 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 month was 1,160, up 310; 5 - 9 month was - 1,105, down 60; 9 - 1 month was - 55, down 250 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,220, up 255; CY05 - CF05 was 5,385, down 55; CY09 - CF09 was 6,240, down 10 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 628, up 143; sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was - 34, up 132; cotton yarn spread was - 1,379, down 625 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of May 11, 2025, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 31,000 tons, down 27% year - on - year; cumulative listing volume in 2024/25 was 453.2 million tons, down 7% year - on - year [6] - On May 15, 2025, Xinjiang cotton road transport price index was 0.1301 yuan/ton·km, down 0.08% month - on - month [6] - As of May 14, 9:00 PM, 2024, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises in China had processed 30,097,936 bales of cotton, weighing 6.7964 million tons [6] Trading Logic - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks reached a consensus. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods. The 24% tariff will be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% will be retained [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be stronger due to macro - factors [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] - Options: Wait and see [8] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton is strong. Pure cotton yarn prices are stable to strong, but due to weak downstream demand, price increases are difficult, and trading volume has declined [8] - The all - cotton grey fabric market remains sluggish. Weaving mills' inventories are slightly increasing, with an average of 33 days. Some dyeing mills have insufficient orders, and orders are expected to decline further [8] Group 4: Options Option Data - On May 15, 2025, for CF509C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 312, up 16.9%, IV was 11.2% [10] - For CF509P12600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 83, down 12.6%, IV was 13.3% [10] - For CF509P12200.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13,415, closed at 51, down 23.9%, IV was 15.1% [10] Volatility and Strategy - Cotton's 120 - day HV was 10.6252, slightly increasing. CF509 - C - 13400's implied volatility was 11.2%, CF509 - P - 12600's was 13.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200's was 15.1% [12] - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract's PCR of open interest was 0.8770, and PCR of trading volume was 0.5611. Trading volumes of both calls and puts decreased [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. corn report is neutral, with planting progress accelerating. The U.S. corn is oscillating at the bottom, and the reduction of Sino - U.S. tariffs provides strong support at the bottom. Chinese corn and starch prices are affected by multiple factors such as imports, domestic supply and demand, and policy expectations. Corn prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, while starch prices are expected to have limited downside in the short - term [5][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures盘面**: For corn futures (C2601, C2505, C2509) and corn starch futures (CS2601, CS2505, CS2509), prices mostly declined on May 15, 2025. Trading volumes and open interests also showed different degrees of changes, with some contracts having increased open interests and others having decreased trading volumes [3]. - **Spot and Basis**: Corn spot prices in different regions showed little change, with only a 10 - yuan increase in Zhucheng Xingmao. Starch spot prices were mostly stable, except for a 20 - yuan decrease in Hengren Gongmao. Basis values for both corn and starch varied by region [3]. - **Spreads**: Corn and starch inter - delivery spreads and cross - variety spreads also changed. For example, the C01 - C05 spread decreased by 16 yuan, and the CS01 - CS05 spread decreased by 12 yuan [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The U.S. corn is oscillating at the bottom. Chinese import tariffs on U.S. corn and sorghum have changed, and foreign corn import profits are acceptable. Domestic corn supply is low, and although downstream demand is weak, prices are expected to rise in the short - term. In the medium - to - long - term, policy - related grain auctions are expected after the price reaches a certain level [5][7]. - **Starch**: Corn starch inventory decreased this week. The price is mainly affected by corn prices and downstream stocking. In the medium - to - long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a loss state for a long time, but profits will be repaired. The short - term downside of 07 starch on the futures market is limited [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Domestic 07 corn is expected to oscillate narrowly, and short - term long positions can be attempted [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a position of buying spot and shorting 07 corn, and widen the spread between 07 corn and starch when it is low, with oscillating operations [13]. 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategies suggest that enterprises with spot positions sell corn call options. Information on two option contracts (C2509 - P - 2380.DCE and C2507 - P - 2360.DCE) is provided, including their closing prices and price changes [14]. 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as those showing corn spot prices in different regions, corn 09 contract basis, corn 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 9 - 1 spreads, corn starch 09 contract basis, and corn starch - corn 09 contract spreads [16][19][21].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同 期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求未实质性改善之前 PVC 压力较大。只是近期 PVC 期价增仓持续下跌后，在 ...

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investing and selecting the right funds, suggesting that solid basic skills are essential for successful investment in funds [2] Group 2 - Certain bond funds can invest in government bond futures, which are futures contracts based on government bonds, highlighting a diversification opportunity within bond investments [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年5月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，继续震荡运行。产业链来看，不锈钢表现偏弱，镍铁价格继续回落，成本 线继续下降，对后市预期偏弱。同时交易所仓单仍在减少流入现货，供应或继续增强。新能源产业链数 据表现良好，对中期预期较好。从中长线来看，精炼镍过剩格局不变。短期宏观拢动较多，要多关注宏 观政策影响。偏空 2、基差：现货126075，基差845，偏多 3、库存：LME库存198432，-84，上交所仓单23549，-398，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2506：震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 14 日 热点品种 PVC： 上游电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC 开工率环比增加 1.01 个百分点至 80.34%， PVC 开工率继续增加，处于近年同期中性偏高水平。五一节后，PVC 下游开工有 所回升，但同比往年仍偏低，采购较为谨慎。印度反倾销政策不利于国内 PVC 的 出口，印度将 BIS 政策再次延期六个月至 2025 年 6 月 24 日执行，中国台湾台塑 5 月份报价稳定，出口高价成交受阻，但低价出口交付较好。上周社会库存略有 下降，只是目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025 年 1-3 月份，房地产数据略有 改善，只是同比仍是负数，且新开工与竣工面积同比降幅仍较大。五一假期过后， 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比小幅回升，但仍是历年同期偏低水平，关 注房地产利好政策能否提振商品房销售。目前下游积极性一般，现货跟跌，09 基 差偏低。春检过半，据统计春检规模不及去年同期，近期开工率持续反弹，需求 未实质性改善之前 PVC 压 ...