Group 1 - The overall agenda of the Two Sessions in 2025 remains largely unchanged compared to 2024, with significant legislative activities including the review and approval of the revised National People's Congress and local people's congresses representative law [1][10][15] - The government work report sets a fiscal deficit target of around 4%, the highest since 2010, indicating a proactive stance on leveraging debt [3][17] - The emphasis on stabilizing asset prices, particularly in the real estate and stock markets, is a notable shift in macroeconomic management [4][5] Group 2 - The monetary policy continues to emphasize "appropriate easing," with plans for potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to maintain liquidity [2][24] - The government aims to implement a more active fiscal policy, with a focus on increasing public spending and supporting consumption through special bonds [3][19] - The report highlights the acceleration of reforms in the capital market, with a focus on enhancing the health of the stock market and supporting strategic industries [4][18] Group 3 - The real estate sector is undergoing a transformation towards higher quality and sustainability, moving from "incremental expansion" to "stock quality improvement" [5][19] - Employment stability is prioritized, with initiatives aimed at improving job matching efficiency and supporting entrepreneurship [6][18] - The government is set to support emerging industries such as quantum technology, embodied intelligence, and 6G, indicating a shift in focus towards future industries [7][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [25]. Core Insights - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, maintaining a balance between short-term stability and long-term transformation, reflecting a pragmatic yet challenging policy stance [1]. - The fiscal deficit is projected at 5.66 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, marking a historical high for the two sessions, which aligns with the direction of a more proactive fiscal policy [2]. - The issuance of special bonds and local government bonds is expected to reach 6.2 trillion yuan this year, significantly higher than the previous year's total of 4.9 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in effective fiscal spending [3]. - The monetary policy is characterized as "moderately loose," with expectations for potential reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates throughout the year [4]. - CPI is projected to show a "high-low-high" trend throughout the year, with an expected year-end CPI increase of around 1.2% [12]. - PPI is anticipated to narrow its decline throughout the year, with a forecasted annual decrease of -1.2% [14]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The government work report emphasizes a combination of "expansive fiscal and monetary policies" to stabilize growth expectations [1][4]. - The fiscal policy aims to enhance domestic demand through increased public spending and special bond issuance [2][3]. Inflation and Price Trends - February 2025 CPI showed a year-on-year decrease of -0.7%, with core CPI also negative for the first time since January 2021 [11]. - The CPI is expected to rise later in the year due to strong growth policies and increased consumer spending [12]. Trade and Export Performance - Exports in the first two months of 2025 increased by 2.3% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 8.4%, indicating a mixed trade environment [15]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on exports has not yet fully materialized, suggesting resilience in certain sectors [17]. Market Performance - The REITs market experienced a limited rebound, with the CSI REITs index up by 1.14% [18]. - Market liquidity has decreased, with average daily trading volume dropping to 787 million yuan [19].

Core Viewpoint - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the need for stable employment, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods, supported by economic growth potential and favorable conditions [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Conditions - The economic growth target of 5% for 2025 is supported by several favorable conditions, including more proactive macroeconomic policies, particularly in fiscal and monetary areas [6][10]. - The government plans to increase the scale of new government debt to 11.86 trillion yuan, a rise of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year, which will positively impact investment and consumption [6][10]. - The balance of contributions from exports, investment, and consumption to economic growth is noted, with significant advancements in strategic emerging industries driven by technological innovation [5][6]. Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The fiscal policy will see a deficit rate increase to around 4%, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 40% increase from last year [10]. - The monetary policy will be more accommodative, maintaining ample liquidity and supporting sectors like technology innovation and consumption [10][11]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - To boost consumption, the government will implement special actions, including increasing income for low- and middle-income groups and stabilizing asset values in real estate and stock markets [11][12]. - Investment efficiency will be improved by selecting key projects for government investment and encouraging private sector participation in infrastructure projects [12][14]. Group 4: Key Industries and Reforms - Focus areas for new quality productivity include digital economy, green economy, life sciences, and low-altitude economy, with significant technological breakthroughs expected [15][16]. - Key reforms to be pushed include enhancing the vitality of business entities, accelerating the construction of a unified national market, and deepening fiscal and tax reforms to increase local financial autonomy [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, emphasizing the need for job creation, stabilizing expectations, and achieving modernization goals [3][4]. Group 1: Economic Growth Target - The 5% growth target is aimed at creating sufficient new jobs, with approximately 12 million new graduates entering the job market [3]. - Maintaining a stable growth rate of around 5% is crucial for stabilizing market expectations and signaling to investors and consumers that the economy remains resilient [3]. - Achieving the goal of modernization by 2035 requires sustained economic growth of around 5% to reach a per capita GDP close to $30,000 [3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Policies - The report advocates for a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to address uncertainties and support economic growth [6][7]. - Increasing the deficit ratio to around 4% and expanding the issuance of special bonds are part of the proactive fiscal measures [7]. - A moderately loose monetary policy aims to maintain liquidity and encourage banks to provide low-cost funding to enterprises [7]. Group 3: Consumer and Investment Strategies - To boost consumption, the focus should be on increasing residents' income, especially for low- and middle-income groups, and optimizing income distribution [9]. - Investment efficiency can be improved by identifying promising industries and projects, supported by favorable government policies [10]. - Expanding domestic demand is essential, especially in light of external pressures, by enhancing both consumption and investment [9]. Group 4: Development of New Productive Forces - Developing new productive forces is necessary for sustained economic growth, moving beyond traditional industries to create new demand through innovation [11]. - Local governments should tailor their development strategies based on regional advantages, avoiding uniform approaches [12]. Group 5: Economic System Reforms - Key reforms include establishing a unified national market to enhance resource allocation efficiency and support the development of the private economy [14][15]. - The government should focus on maintaining order and providing services, stepping back from direct market involvement [16]. Group 6: Risk Management - The real estate market is in a stabilization phase after significant adjustments, requiring supportive policies to ensure healthy development [17]. - Effective management of local debt risks involves setting clear borrowing limits and ensuring that debt is used efficiently [18].

潘功胜表示，中国人民银行将实施好适度宽松的货币政策。在结构上，加大对重点战略领域和薄弱环节予 以支持，进一步扩大科技创新和技术改造再贷款规模。 3月6日（星期四）下午，十四届全国人大三次会议举行记者会，邀请国家发展和改革委员会主 任郑栅洁、财政部部长蓝佛安、商务部部长王文涛、中国人民银行行长潘功胜、中国证券监督管 理委员会主席吴清，就发展改革、财政预算、商务、金融证券等相关问题回答中外记者提问。 潘功胜表示，与证监会探索常态化的制度安排，支持资本市场发展。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示，去年以来货币政策 逆周期调节效果比较明显，货币政策取向是一种对状态的描述，今年将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市 场情况，择机降准降息，目前存款准备金率还有下行空间。 潘功胜还表示，加强金融政策与产业政策的协同，在金融资源政策支持方向上做到有保有控。 潘功胜表示，在政策传导上，中国人民银行将进一步完善利率调控机制，持续强化利率政策执行和监督， 对一些不合理的容易削减货币政策传导的市场行为，加强规范，推动落实银行补充资本金措施，畅通利率 传导机制。 对于人民币汇率，潘功胜表示，我们在 ...

Macroeconomic Indicators - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5%[1] - The urban unemployment rate is expected to be around 5.5%, with over 12 million new urban jobs created[1] - The consumer price index is projected to rise by about 2%[1] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The fiscal deficit is planned at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan[1] - Special government bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan and 500 billion yuan are proposed for issuance[1] - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to support the real estate and stock markets[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures closed generally lower, with energy and chemical products showing weakness, e.g., styrene down 2.78% and low-sulfur fuel oil down 2.2%[2] - Most agricultural products declined, with soybean meal down 1.88% and rapeseed meal down 1.79%[2] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $77.13, down 2.74% for the day and down 7.43% year-to-date[3] - LME copper rose by 2.69% to $9,594.00, with a year-to-date increase of 9.42%[3] - The S&P 500 index closed at 5,845.50, down 1.52% year-to-date[3]

Economic Growth and Fiscal Policy - The GDP growth target for 2025 is set at around 5%, reflecting a balance of domestic and international factors, aimed at stabilizing employment and enhancing people's livelihoods [2] - The deficit ratio is proposed to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy [3][4] - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, with a focus on supporting consumption and infrastructure, reflecting a strong intent to boost economic activity [5][6] Debt and Financing - Local government special bonds are proposed at 4.4 trillion yuan, aimed at investment construction and addressing local government debts, contributing to a total new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan [7] - The increase in special bonds and their diversified use is expected to enhance project efficiency and support the real estate market [7][12] Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to ensure ample liquidity [8] - The focus will be on aligning monetary supply growth with economic growth and price stability, with expectations for policy adjustments post the National People's Congress [8] Consumption and Economic Structure - Special actions to boost consumption are planned, including 300 billion yuan for consumption upgrades, and measures to enhance service sector offerings [9][10] - The government emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address consumption patterns and improve the overall consumption environment [10] Industrial Development - The report highlights the importance of developing new productive forces through technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on emerging industries such as AI and quantum technology [11] - Traditional industries will also be encouraged to upgrade and innovate, ensuring a balanced approach to industrial development [11] Real Estate Market - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market with increased efforts, including the use of special bonds for land acquisition and stock housing purchases [12] - There is a clear intent to optimize policies to support the real estate sector, indicating potential easing of restrictions in major cities [12] Education and Healthcare - A high-quality education system is prioritized, with plans for expanding educational resources and enhancing vocational training [13] - The healthcare system will undergo reforms to improve service quality and accessibility, with a focus on integrating medical services and insurance [14][15]

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with a target GDP growth rate of around 5% for 2025, reflecting the need for employment stability, risk prevention, and improving people's livelihoods [1][2]. Fiscal Policy Summary - The fiscal deficit rate for 2025 is set at around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan, up by 1.6 trillion yuan [1][3]. - The issuance of special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks and local government projects [1][4]. - The total new government debt for the year is projected to reach 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending intensity [1][5]. Monetary Policy Summary - A moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented, with measures such as timely reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure ample liquidity [2][4]. - The focus will be on optimizing structural monetary policy tools to promote healthy development in the real estate and stock markets, as well as supporting technological innovation and green development [2][6]. Special Bonds and Local Government Debt - The increase in local special bonds is expected to enhance their role in stabilizing growth, addressing shortfalls, and promoting recovery in the real estate market [5][6]. - Special bonds will be directed towards municipal construction, new energy, and new infrastructure, with a portion allocated for replacing hidden debts, thereby reducing local debt risks [5][6]. Long-term Special Bonds - The scale of long-term special bonds will be expanded to 1.3 trillion yuan, with a significant portion aimed at boosting consumption and supporting high-end, intelligent, and green transformation of equipment [3][6]. - Issuing special bonds to supplement commercial bank capital is expected to lower risks for banks and enhance their ability to support the real economy through interest rate cuts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The government work report emphasizes the need for macroeconomic regulation and innovation to promote economic recovery, highlighting effective fiscal and monetary policies, support for key sectors, and measures to stabilize the real estate market and capital markets [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The report advocates for a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing both total and structural monetary policy tools to ensure liquidity and match social financing growth with economic growth and price expectations [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of optimizing and innovating structural monetary policy tools to support the healthy development of the real estate and stock markets, as well as to enhance support for technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [4]. Group 2: Fiscal and Financial Coordination - The report calls for active expansion of effective investment, aligning government investment tools with national development strategies and public needs, and accelerating the implementation of key projects [6]. - It proposes a central budget investment of 7.35 trillion yuan for the year, with a focus on effective project selection and fund management to prevent inefficient investments [6]. Group 3: Policy Financial Support - The report highlights the need to strengthen policy financial support, accelerate the development of venture capital, and enhance patient capital [8]. Group 4: Financial System Reform - The report outlines plans for zero-based budgeting reforms at the central level and encourages local governments to deepen similar reforms, aiming to innovate in expenditure standards and performance evaluations [10]. - It emphasizes the need to improve the financial standards and systems for technology, green finance, inclusive finance, and digital finance [11]. Group 5: Capital Injection for State-Owned Banks - The report mentions plans to issue special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support capital replenishment for large state-owned commercial banks [13]. Group 6: Foreign Trade Financial Services - The report stresses the importance of stabilizing foreign trade development, enhancing financial services related to financing, settlement, and foreign exchange, and expanding export credit insurance coverage [15]. Group 7: Risk Prevention in Finance - The report emphasizes the need to effectively prevent and resolve key financial risks, ensuring that systemic risks do not occur, particularly in the real estate sector [17]. - It advocates for a market-oriented approach to address risks in local small and medium financial institutions, including capital replenishment and market exit strategies [18].

会议期间，宣昌能会见了巴西央行行长加利波罗、阿根廷央行行长鲍希利、澳大利亚央行行长布洛克、 英格兰银行副行长布里登以及欧委会经济金融事务总司总司长韦尔维，就双边金融合作等议题交换了意 见。 此前，在2025年1月14日国务院新闻办公室举行"中国经济高质量发展成效"系列新闻发布会上，宣昌能 表示，未来一段时间，外部环境复杂性、严峻性和不确定性可能进一步上升，但中国的经济基础坚实。 按照中央"实施更加积极有为的宏观政策"要求，人民银行今年将落实好适度宽松的货币政策。近年来， 稳健的货币政策更加突出强调有力、有效、精准、灵活等要求，对调控区间的把握偏向宽松一些，也会 根据年中经济运行情况持续不断加大逆周期调节力度，2019年底以来还持续降准降息，累积效应使得社 会融资环境处于较为宽松的状态。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌能于2025年2月2 6 - 2 7日出席了在南非开普敦举 行 的 二 十 国 集 团 （ G20 ） 财 长 和 央 行 行 长 会 议 。 在 会 议 期 间 ， 宣 昌 能 表 示，中国经济持续回升向好，中国人民银行在推动落实金融改革、促进跨 境支付发展等方面取得了务实成果。 中国人民银行副行长宣昌 ...