中山大学教授申曙光表示，提振消费应该以稳定就业、促进就业为导向，瞄准受到影响的重点人群、区 域和行业，精准实施政策，同时，要在提振物质消费的同时重视服务消费，尤其在人口老龄化背景下， 大力促进医疗健康服务消费，并注重疾病预防等健康消费。 近日，中国社会保障学会主办的"提振消费与社会保障有效作为座谈会"在北京举行，来自中国社会科学 院、中国人民大学、南京大学、中山大学、浙江大学等多所高校专家学者展开热烈讨论。 社会保障具有经济运行减震器的作用。中国社会保障学会会长郑功成表示，要发挥社会保障解民忧、聚 民心、稳预期、振消费、促平等、护安全的功能。"一方面，应当通过扩大社会保障支出来切实减轻人 民群众的后顾之忧，进而释放居民特别是中低收入群体的消费潜力；另一方面，通过加快优化现行社会 保障制度安排来提供清晰、稳定的安全预期。" 中国社会科学院学部委员周弘认为，国内本身即为一个巨大的消费市场，而中低收入群体更是提振消费 的重要人群，未来应重点分析并提高社会保障改革的精准度，比如在医保领域，精准衡量个体医疗消费 的负担和收益比，化解群众后顾之忧。 "提振消费要把握三个基本点：一是有能力消费，二是敢于消费，三是乐于消费。 ...

以下文章来源于城市进化论 ，作者杨弃非 城市进化论 . 探寻城市路径，揭秘经济逻辑 （互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：51120190017） 本文来自微信公众号： 城市进化论 （ID：urban_evolution） ，作者：杨弃非，题图来自：视觉中国 或许没什么比"消费第一城"易主，更能令人直接感受到消费趋势的变化。 数据显示，今年一季度，上海社会消费品零售总额为4057.45亿元，同比下降1.1%，同期重庆该数据为4204.32亿元，同比上升4.1%。这也意味着，重 庆一季度消费数据反超上海，成为新晋全国"第一"。 一直以来，上海是公认的消费大市和商业"标杆"，其社消零总额自2018年超过北京后，已连续7年居全国城市首位。在罕见被重庆反超后，外界难免关 心：上海商业，是否正在走下"神坛"？ 问题的答案，很难直接从数字中得出。有人推测，位次下滑可能源于春节节假日消费变化或者消费券发放的附带效果；更不用说，仅看社消零数据， 难以概括上海消费的全部。就连重庆本地媒体也在自我审视时，发出登顶"是否'昙花一现'"的灵魂拷问。 在外界看来，我国正在迈向一场面向服务消费的结构性转型。随着促消费不断被置于经济发展的重要位 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Province is implementing policies to support the development of the "first launch economy," aiming to enhance service supply and consumer experiences in various sectors [1] Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The government plans to cultivate 50 night-time consumption hubs throughout the year, focusing on pedestrian streets and diverse consumption scenarios such as night entertainment, dining, and shopping [1] - There is an emphasis on expanding service consumption in health, elderly care, childcare, home services, and sports, while promoting the construction of convenient living circles within a 15-minute reach [1] Group 2: Urban Development - The initiative includes urban renewal actions to upgrade old neighborhoods, factories, and commercial areas [1] - The government aims to achieve a public service quality satisfaction score of over 83 points across the province [1] Group 3: Cultural and Sports Promotion - The plan includes organizing cultural tourism promotional seasons and rural tourism festivals to optimize cultural and tourism product offerings [1] - There is a focus on applying for pilot projects to promote sports consumption and event economies, with efforts to attract high-quality domestic and international sports events [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of "vigorously developing service consumption" and proposed the establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan," a targeted policy financial tool to stimulate consumption in the context of a complex external environment [1] Group 1: Service Consumption Growth - The enhancement of service consumption is a necessary trend linked to the upgrade of consumption structure, with service consumption becoming increasingly significant as per international experience [2] - In 2024, China's per capita GDP is projected to reach $13,800, indicating a rapid growth phase for service consumption, although the penetration rate remains lower compared to developed countries [2] - In 2024 and Q1 2025, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure to total per capita consumption expenditure is expected to be 46.11% and 43.39%, respectively, highlighting substantial growth potential [2] Group 2: Current Demand and Consumption Trends - There is still an issue of insufficient endogenous demand, but the trend of service consumption leading consumption upgrades is becoming evident [3] - In 2024, service retail sales are expected to grow by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing goods retail sales by 3 percentage points, while Q1 2025 service retail sales are projected to grow by 5%, exceeding goods retail growth by 0.4 percentage points [3] - Sectors related to consumption structure upgrades, such as education, culture, and entertainment, are experiencing faster growth, with new industries like cultural tourism and low-altitude economy emerging as growth highlights [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation and Financial Tools - The establishment of "service consumption and elderly re-loan" is a proactive measure in response to the complex economic situation, aiming to leverage financial tools to unlock service consumption potential and achieve multiple goals of stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihoods [3] - The re-loan will be provided at a rate of 1.75% to commercial banks, with actual financing costs for related enterprises potentially reduced to 2%-3%, creating a transmission chain from "low-cost funds to service supply expansion to consumption demand release" [4] - The focus of re-loan should be on areas such as elderly communities, cultural tourism facilities, and sports events, aligning with the issuance of government bonds [4] Group 4: Supply-Side Structural Reform and Innovation - There is a need to optimize service supply by breaking down entry barriers and simplifying approval processes in sectors like cultural tourism, healthcare, and private elderly care [5] - Expanding supply in health, elderly care, and childcare services is essential, along with integrating consumption scenarios with credit [5] - New consumption scenarios driven by technologies like 5G and AI, such as silver-haired tourism and smart elderly care, should be explored to enhance consumer experience and create sustainable consumption power [5] Group 5: Consumer Environment and Income Security - Improving the service consumption environment requires the removal of restrictive measures and the promotion of "convenient living circles" [5] - It is crucial to eliminate unreasonable consumption restrictions, such as car purchase limits, and implement paid leave systems to unlock tourism consumption potential [5] - Enhancing consumer capacity and expectations, along with increasing minimum wage standards and issuing service consumption vouchers in key cities, are vital for boosting consumer willingness [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting signals confidence and capability to respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development[8] - The policy direction remains unchanged, with a more proactive stance expected in the second quarter[10] - The goal of achieving a 5% economic growth rate for the year is anticipated to remain intact[9] Group 2: Policy Measures - Special bond issuance is expected to accelerate, with a total of 1.14 trillion yuan issued by April 27, 2025, reflecting a 57.41% increase compared to the previous year[11] - Monetary policy is likely to align with fiscal measures, with expectations for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in May and June[13] - Incremental policies are being reserved for potential implementation in the second half of the year to address unexpected external challenges[14] Group 3: Sector Focus - Real estate policies are shifting towards optimizing existing policies, with an emphasis on stabilizing the market[15] - Service consumption is highlighted as a key area for expanding consumer recovery, with a focus on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups[16] - The promotion of "Artificial Intelligence +" applications is identified as a significant investment opportunity moving forward[19]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for more proactive macro policies to stabilize the economy amid external shocks, with a focus on timely implementation of existing policies and introduction of new incremental policies [2][3] - The April Politburo meeting acknowledged the economic recovery but highlighted the necessity to solidify this foundation, especially in light of increasing external pressures [1][2] Fixed Income - The fixed income market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, with key observation points in May regarding potential reserve requirement ratio cuts [3][4] - The issuance of green bonds decreased significantly, with only 14 new bonds issued totaling approximately 10.87 billion yuan, while trading volume increased to 56.2 billion yuan [4] Company Analysis Arrow Home (001322) - The company faced demand pressure, with revenue expected to decline year-on-year in the first half of 2024, but a recovery is anticipated in the second half due to national subsidy policies [7] - Revenue from retail channels decreased due to intensified competition, while the home decoration channel showed growth [7] - The company is adjusting its strategy to focus on retail channels and enhance product strength and brand marketing [7] Nuotai Bio (688076) - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 57.21% in 2024, driven by the growth of peptide APIs [8] - The custom product segment also showed strong growth, with a notable order from a major European pharmaceutical company [8] - The forecast for net profit remains optimistic, with expected growth in the coming years [9] Taiji Group (600129) - The company experienced a substantial decline in revenue and net profit in Q1 2025, but there are signs of improvement compared to Q4 2024 [10] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downward due to ongoing market challenges [10] Guizhou Sanli (603439) - The company achieved a revenue increase of 31.16% in 2024, but faced a decline in net profit [11] - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downward for 2025-2026, reflecting short-term pressures [11] National Grid Yingda (600517) - The company is pursuing dual development in finance and manufacturing, with a stable performance expected in 2024 [25] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted, but the long-term growth potential remains positive [25] Hengli Petrochemical (600346) - The company reported stable profitability despite industry competition, with a focus on optimizing operations and maintaining high dividend payouts [26][27] - The profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been adjusted downward, but the company continues to show growth potential [27] National Securities (600109) - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but showed strong growth in Q1 2025 [28] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 indicates a steady increase, supported by market reforms and economic recovery [28] Cambrian (688256) - The company achieved significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by strong contributions from its largest customer [29] - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with expectations for continued revenue growth and improved profitability [29] Giant Network (002558) - The company is actively expanding its AI capabilities, with a positive outlook for revenue growth in the coming years [30][31] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upward, reflecting a strong pipeline of new games [31]

21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 4月28日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，邀请国家发展改革 委副主任赵辰昕、人力资源社会保障部副部长俞家栋、商务部副部长盛秋平、中国人民银行副行长邹澜 介绍稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措施有关情况，并答记者问。 面对美国滥施关税，后续中国如何加力扩内需为外界所关注。4月25日，中共中央政治局会议分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出，要提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消费，增强消费对经济 增长的拉动作用。尽快清理消费领域限制性措施，设立服务消费与养老再贷款。加大资金支持力度，扩 围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。 国家发展改革委副主任赵辰昕在发布会上回应记者提问表示，更好发挥内需主动力作用，具体思路和方 法也非常明确，就是增加中低收入群体收入、大力提振消费，扩大有效投资，做强国内大循环。下一 步，国家发展改革委将认真落实党中央、国务院决策部署，扎实做好这三方面工作。 在提振消费方面，近期已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧换新资金，前两批一共下达超过1600亿元，后 续还有1400亿元左右，我们会根据各地支付进度陆续下达。还将建立实施育儿补贴制度，创设专项 ...

国务院新闻办公室4月28日举行新闻发布会。发布会上，商务部副部长盛秋平介绍，近期我们会同相关 部门陆续出台了服务消费提质惠民行动。下一步商务部将针对服务消费领域的短板弱项，积极回应人民 群众期待，会同相关部门制定支持服务消费的一揽子政策措施，开展服务消费季等扩消费活动，打造服 务消费热点，坚持对外开放、对内放开，加大政策支持力度，不断扩大健康、养老、托幼、家政等多元 化服务供给，更好满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要。(央视新闻) ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Central Political Bureau meeting is to enhance the income of low- and middle-income groups and to significantly develop service consumption to boost economic growth [1][2] - The issuance of special long-term government bonds, including 500 billion yuan for 20-year bonds and 710 billion yuan for 30-year bonds, aims to support consumption and stimulate domestic demand [1][2] - The total social financing scale increased by 15.18 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2025, which is 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial support for consumption [2] Group 2 - Expanding service consumption is viewed as a systematic project that requires a multi-faceted approach, including demand expansion, supply optimization, and environmental improvement [3] - Policies need to be coordinated across various sectors, including fiscal, financial, and industrial policies, to effectively stimulate consumption [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop tailored financial products to meet the diverse needs of consumers, particularly in new consumption scenarios such as digital and green consumption [6]

Group 1 - The meeting of the Central Political Bureau emphasizes the implementation of proactive macroeconomic policies to address external uncertainties and stabilize economic growth [1][2] - The combination of fiscal and monetary policies is expected to be strengthened, with measures such as accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds and potential interest rate cuts [2] - The focus on service consumption as a new direction for economic growth highlights the potential in sectors like elderly care, healthcare, tourism, and dining, which could significantly boost economic activity and employment [3] Group 2 - The meeting indicates a commitment to supporting the real economy and technological innovation, aiming to cultivate new industries and enhance competitiveness [4] - Capital markets are expected to play a crucial role in financing technology-driven enterprises, particularly in strategic emerging industries such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy [4] - The urgency for counter-cyclical adjustments is underscored by increasing external trade frictions and global economic recession risks, suggesting a potential for rapid policy implementation in the coming months [4]