Group 1: Copper Price Surge - Recent global copper prices have reached historic highs, with SHFE copper closing at 94,020 CNY/ton and LME copper at 11,952 USD/ton[1] - Structural supply shortages in global copper mining are the core reason for price increases, with production accidents in Chile and Indonesia causing a 6.5% year-on-year decline in output from the top 20 copper mines in Q3[1] - Self-imposed production cuts in smelting further exacerbate supply tightness, with China's CSPT announcing a reduction of over 10% in copper production capacity for 2026[1] Group 2: Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - The macroeconomic environment is supportive, with increasing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, enhancing the investment appeal of commodities[1] - Long-term copper price increases are driven by structural changes and rigid growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy sector, where copper usage in electric vehicles is 2-3 times that of traditional vehicles[1] - The International Copper Study Group predicts that annual demand in the renewable sector will exceed 10 million tons by 2030[1] Group 3: Market Overview - From December 6 to December 13, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.08%, the Hang Seng index by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 by 0.63%[2] - In commodities, SHFE rebar fell by 2.65%, while LME copper rose by 1.47%[2] - The gold-silver ratio decreased to 67.39, while the copper-oil ratio increased to 205.72, reflecting changing asset valuations[2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent performance of gold, which has increased by $101.80 or 2.42% this week, closing at $4299.87 per ounce, driven by a weakening dollar and a shift in investor sentiment towards high-yield assets [2][3] - The rise in gold prices is occurring in a context where risk appetite is recovering, rather than during typical risk-off scenarios, indicating a unique market dynamic [2] - Analysts suggest that despite potential short-term volatility due to upcoming economic data releases, the medium-term outlook for gold remains positive, supported by expectations of further interest rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [3][4] Group 2 - Next week, significant U.S. macroeconomic data will be released, including the December PMI, October retail sales, and the November non-farm payroll report, which are expected to influence market dynamics [3] - The Federal Reserve's recent guidance indicates a cautious approach to interest rate hikes, with expectations for at least two rate cuts by 2026, which is likely to keep the dollar weak and support gold prices [3] - Technical analysis suggests that gold is currently facing resistance around $4340, with key support at $4260; the market is expected to experience fluctuations based on upcoming economic data [4][6]

Core Drivers - Silver prices surpassed $60 per ounce for the first time in December 2025, with an annual increase of over 110%, driven by a surge in industrial demand, inventory squeeze, and a shift in financial policy [1] - Market expectations indicate an 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding silver and attracts investment into precious metals as a safe haven [3] - The global photovoltaic installation capacity is expected to exceed 655 GW in 2025, with silver consumption in this sector accounting for 55% of total silver demand, doubling from 2022 levels [4] - The demand for silver in electric vehicles is significantly higher, with each vehicle using 25-50 grams of silver, and AI server chips consuming 30% more silver than traditional devices [5] - A global silver supply shortage has persisted for five consecutive years, with a projected shortfall of 2,700 tons in 2025 due to production cuts from major silver-producing countries and slow growth in recycled silver [5] Inventory Squeeze and Capital Dynamics - Global silver inventories are critically low, with London deliverable stocks at a ten-year low of 233 tons and Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks nearing a critical threshold of 519 tons, leading to urgent silver transport [6] - A "vortex squeeze" effect is observed as inventory shortages rotate between New York, London, and Shanghai, causing Shanghai silver premiums to rise by 3%-4% [6] - The silver market is relatively small, with a market size only one-tenth that of gold, allowing speculative trading to significantly amplify price volatility [6] Market Dynamics and Policy Catalysts - The gold-silver ratio has decreased from over 100:1 to 70:1, indicating a 45% potential for correction, with strong demand for silver as a catch-up asset [7] - The U.S. has classified silver as a "critical mineral," intensifying stockpiling behavior among traders and exacerbating supply constraints [7] Industry Impact - Mining companies like Shengda Resources have seen stock prices increase by 150%, benefiting from higher margins due to rising silver prices [13] - Silver price increases have pressured photovoltaic companies, which see silver costs constituting 15% of component costs, leading some to pause procurement and explore copper paste alternatives [13] - Silver bar manufacturers are experiencing a doubling in sales, while jewelry processing factories have reduced semi-finished product orders by 50% [13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to prioritize bank investment in silver bars (with premiums ≤5%) or silver ETFs (e.g., AGQ), while avoiding silver jewelry with high labor costs and leveraged trading [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The real demand for coking coal and coke is weakening, and coal and coke are under pressure. The supply side has some production limitations, while the import supply of coking coal is loose. The demand side shows a decline in the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills, with insufficient inventory - building momentum and weak real demand, so a bearish approach is recommended for operation [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Double - Coking Market Review - No specific review content provided in the given text. 2. Macro and Policy 2.1 Recent Important Information Overview - **Economic Data**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued reduction of major raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in employment. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in delivery time. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December was 87.6%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate was 12.4% [13]. - **Policy Information**: In November, the NDRC held a meeting to study the formulation of cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [13]. 3. Fundamental Situation of Coking Coal 3.1 Coking Coal Production - In October, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to September. From January to October, the output was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. As of December 12, the operating rate of 523 sample coal mines was 85.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28% [17]. 3.2 Coking Coal Import - In October, China's total coking coal imports were 1.05932 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January to October 2025, imports were 9.8869 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.12%. In the fourth quarter, Mongolia is expected to increase coal exports, while imports from Russia, the US, and Australia may change in different directions, and the total imports may slightly decrease [22]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 225,310 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8300 tons. The coking coal inventory of major ports was 307,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons [26]. - **Coking Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample coking enterprises was 883,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,900 tons [30]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of December 12, the coking coal inventory of sample steel mills was 794,650 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3620 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased raw materials as needed due to blast furnace production cuts [34]. 4. Fundamental Situation of Coke 4.1 Coke Supply - From January to October, the national coke output was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In October, the output was 41.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% [39]. 4.2 Coking Enterprise Operation - As of December 12, the capacity utilization rate of 230 sample independent coking enterprises was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72%. Although coking enterprises had good profits, the production cuts of downstream steel mills led to a weakening demand for raw materials, resulting in a slight week - on - week decline in the operating rate [43]. 4.3 Inventory - **Coking Enterprise Inventory**: As of December 12, the total coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 50,110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5420 tons. The real demand of downstream was weak, and the inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, with weak market bargaining power [47]. - **Port Inventory**: The total coke inventory of major ports was 181,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100 tons, basically unchanged [51]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: As of the end of this week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 635,280 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,030 tons. Steel mills mainly purchased as needed, and the in - plant raw material inventory increased slightly [55]. 4.4 Coke Demand - From January to October, the national pig iron output was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. In October, the output was 65.55 million tons, the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 7.9% and 0.8% respectively. From January to October, the national crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. In October, the output was 72 million tons, also the lowest monthly level since March 2024, with year - on - year and month - on - month decreases of 12.1% and 2.0% respectively. As of the end of this week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 229,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3100 tons, and the real demand for furnace materials was under pressure [59]. 5. Double - Coking Market Outlook - On the supply side, the overall production in the main production areas is normal, but some coal mines have production limitations. This week, the local supply decreased again. The import supply of coking coal is loose. On the demand side, the operating rates of coking enterprises and steel mills decreased simultaneously, and the real demand is weak. The coke inventory of coking enterprises accumulated, and the near - month futures market is under pressure. A bearish approach is recommended for operation [63].

消息面上，12月12日当天，多位美联储官员的表态成为市场关注焦点。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比称，对 明年利率立场并不"鹰派"，对今年利率下降持乐观态度，不过对政策过早大幅放松表示担忧。他还预计 2026年的降息次数将多于中位数。对于本周美联储各地区联储主席获得新一届五年任期重新任命一事， 古尔斯比解释，这是经过"非常严格"的履职评估后作出的决定，且完全遵循常规时间表。针对是否因担 忧白宫干预而提前推进任命的疑问，他回应称投票结果虽提前公布，但整个流程完全照常，提交了大量 文件。 12月12日，金融市场风云突变，美联储官员突然密集发声，引发市场对明年降息预期的显著升温，黄金 市场随之暴涨，美股走势则呈现分化态势。 在美股市场，道指延续高开走势，而纳指与标普500指数则双双飘绿。中概股表现亮眼，纳斯达克中国 金龙指数拉升，截至发稿时涨幅超0.8%。其中，金山云涨幅超4%，网易涨幅超3%。 另一美联储官员哈玛克表示，特朗普的法案将在明年带来"可观的"刺激作用。然而，堪萨斯联储主席施 密德持不同意见，他反对美联储本周25个基点的降息决定，理由是通胀"仍然过高"，货币政策应继续保 持适度限制性以遏制物价压力。施密德指出，目 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年12月12日16时24分 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.33%，沪银主力收涨3.75%，铂金主力收涨1.89%，钯金主力收涨涨1.08%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险仍在；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期放缓。②避险属性方面，中美经贸磋商成 果共识公布。中东、俄乌等地缘异动风险仍存。美国扣押首艘委内瑞拉油轮后，拟再拦截更多船只。③货币属性方面，美国初请失 业金人数创近四年半最大增幅。美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，利率政策已处于 良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势，但他拒绝就近期是否会再次降息提供指引。目前市场预期美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在 80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏弱；④商品属性方面，白银受到供应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催 化剂需求预期强劲。钯金长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱，人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期金 弱银强，铂强钯弱，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低 ...

关 注 我 们 获 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 12」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场整体偏强运行。联储降息如期兑现，在全球白银实物库存持续紧缺引起的挤仓以及美 联储降息预期提振下，银价续创历史新高，金价走势较为震荡，金银比继续向历史均值收敛。鲍威尔表示货币政 策没有预设路径，未来将依赖数据逐次会议决策。当前通胀仍高于目标，但非关税因素导致的核心通胀已明显回 落。若无新增关税，商品通胀预计将在2026年第一季度触顶。目前利率已处于中性区间上沿，政策正从限制性向 中性过渡。"美联储传声筒"尼克表示，尽管美联储已连续三次会议决定降息，但其内部对于应更担忧通胀还是 就业市场，存在"不同寻常的分歧"。这种分歧导致官员们暗示，继续降息的意愿目前并不高。整体而言，本次 美联储的降息操作略显鹰派，2026年FOMC或仅展开一次25基点的降息操作，鲍威尔反复强 ...

债券月度回顾 11月以来，由于央行宣布重启国债买卖，债市情绪一度有所回暖，月初收益率小幅下行，但受央行买债 规模不及预期、年内货币宽松可能性降低等因素影响，收益率很快转为震荡上行，叠加公募基金费率新 规落地预期反复扰动，市场多头动力不足，缺乏交易主线。同时，债市弱势调整背景下，基金赎回压力 有所增加，进一步放大市场波动。全月10年期国债收益率上行近5BP至1.84%。 商品月度回顾 11月大宗商品市场明显分化。贵金属震荡走高，伦敦金现货月末收于4218.55美元/盎司，较上月上涨 5.41%；国内黄金现货收于948.15元/克，较上月上涨2.89%。有色板块区间震荡，伦铜收于11175.5美元/ 吨，上涨2.61%；沪铜收于87430元/吨，上涨0.48%。原油市场震荡下行，布伦特原油收于62.32美元/ 桶，月跌幅3.50%；上期所原油收于453.90元/桶，月跌幅1.05%。黑色板块先抑后扬，上期所螺纹钢收 于3110元/吨，月涨幅0.13%；大商所铁矿石收于794元/吨，较上月下跌0.75%。农产品内部分化，大商 所大豆收于3760元/吨，月涨幅1.08%；大商所玉米收于2244元/吨，月涨幅5.35% ...

Group 1 - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts in the short term, which supports gold prices amid rate expectations and safe-haven demand [2][4] - Gold prices have broken through a seven-week high, indicating a market re-evaluation of the U.S. economic outlook, with further support expected if employment data remains weak [2][4] - The daily chart shows gold prices firmly in a strong upward channel, with multiple days of gains confirming buyer dominance and a bullish arrangement of short-term moving averages [2][3] Group 2 - The MACD indicator shows a sustained upward movement, indicating positive market sentiment, although the RSI is nearing overbought territory without clear divergence signals [2][3] - Key resistance levels for gold are identified at $4300, while support levels are at $4210 and $4180, which are expected to attract significant buying interest [2][3] - The gold market is entering a mid-term phase driven by interest rate expectations, with the Fed's cautious rate cut stance providing structural support for gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - The technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through key resistance levels of $4220 and $4260, signaling the end of a short-term consolidation phase and the continuation of a bullish trend [5] - Current trading strategies suggest looking for buying opportunities when gold prices retrace to the $4250-$4248 range, with upward targets set at $4270, $4282, and $4290 [7] - The overall market sentiment for gold is influenced by multiple macroeconomic factors rather than a single event, highlighting the importance of monitoring U.S. economic data and Fed policy [3][4]

不过，这钱流向了哪里，才是关键。今天的盘面，可以说是 "新老交替"与"冷热分化" 的生动写照。一 边，是 "电网设备"板块异军突起，多只个股涨停。这绝非偶然，其背后是"新基建"和能源转型的宏大 叙事在支撑。无论是特高压建设、电网智能化改造，还是服务于新能源消纳的配套升级，这都是未来几 年确定性极高的投资主线，有实实在在的政策和订单支撑。另一边，贵金属板块的持续活跃，则是对美 联储降息预期的直接反应，属于全球宏观逻辑的映射。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。上午收盘，这盘面走得有点意思，三大指数涨跌互现，像个不太整齐的合唱 团。创业板指领涨0.6%，而上证指数几乎平盘。但有一个数据很提气——全市场成交额半天就达到了 1.26万亿元，比昨天同一时间放量了超过900亿！有量就有戏，这说明市场的交投活跃度在回升，有资 金在行动了。 而另一边，前几天还风光无限的零售、海南等板块，今天则明显进入了调整。这种快速的轮动告诉我 们，当前市场很难有全面持续的普涨行情，资金正在不同的逻辑与故事间快速切换，寻找阻力最小、共 识最强的方向。这也解释了为什么指数看起来波澜不惊，但板块间却是冰火两重天。 第一，紧跟资金，聚焦主线。上午放量，且资金 ...