以下文章来源于粤开志恒宏观 ，作者罗志恒 粤开志恒宏观 . 在这里，一起解读中国与世界。立足中国，全球视野；宏大叙事，微观关怀。 文/粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长 罗志恒 ，粤开证券高级宏观分析师 黄 羽 市场上有观点认为"反内卷"就是新一轮供给侧改革，称其为"供给侧改革 2.0 "。反内卷背后的核心矛盾是供需结构性失衡，由此引发的产能利用率 下行、价格下跌、企业利润收缩、经济下行压力加大等现象，与上一轮供 给侧改革的背景确实有相似之处。那么本轮反内卷与供给侧改革相比有何 不同，它是供给侧改革的重演还是具有新的趋势特征？ 反内卷与供给侧改革的相似点 反内卷和供给侧改革背后的核心矛盾都是供需结构性失衡，两者的相似点主要体现在供需结构性失衡引发的产能利用率下降、价格下跌、企业利润下滑、 经济下行压力加大等共同现象。具体而言： 一是工业企业产能利用率显著下降。供给侧改革前期，我国产能利用率从2013年四季度的76.8%降至2016年的72.9%（历史次低点，仅低于疫情初期）。 反内卷前期，我国工业产能利用率从2021年四季度的77.4%震荡下降至2025年二季度的74.0%。 二是工业品价格大幅下跌。供给侧改革 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "anti-involution" as a new phase of supply-side reform, highlighting the structural imbalance between supply and demand as a core issue, leading to declining capacity utilization, falling prices, shrinking corporate profits, and increasing economic downward pressure [5][15]. Group 1: Similarities between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - Both anti-involution and supply-side reform are driven by structural supply-demand imbalances, resulting in significant declines in industrial capacity utilization. For instance, industrial capacity utilization fell from 76.8% in Q4 2013 to 72.9% in 2016 before supply-side reform, and from 77.4% in Q4 2021 to 74.0% by Q2 2025 during the anti-involution phase [5][6][13]. - Industrial prices have also seen substantial declines. During the supply-side reform period, the Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced negative growth for 54 consecutive months starting from March 2012. Similarly, the PPI has been in negative growth since October 2022, continuing for 34 months as of July 2025 [6][10]. - Corporate profits have declined due to falling demand and prices. In 2015, industrial profits fell by 2.3%, marking the first negative growth since 1998. In the anti-involution period, industrial profits have been in negative growth since 2022, with a 1.8% decline in the first seven months of 2025 [7][10]. - Economic downward pressure has intensified, with declining capacity utilization and industrial prices leading to reduced corporate revenues and profits, which in turn decrease investment and increase unemployment. GDP growth fell from 8.1% in Q4 2012 to 6.9% in Q4 2015 during the supply-side reform, while the growth rate has stabilized around 5% during the anti-involution period [13][19]. Group 2: Differences between Anti-involution and Supply-side Reform - The macroeconomic environment differs significantly. While both periods face demand shortages, the anti-involution phase is characterized by a more severe demand shortfall due to population decline and a downturn in the real estate market. In contrast, the supply-side reform period saw resilient demand supported by post-financial crisis recovery and real estate market upturns [16][19]. - The industry characteristics also vary. Supply-side reform primarily targeted traditional industries like steel and coal, while anti-involution encompasses a broader range of sectors, including emerging industries and platform economies. This shift indicates a new phenomenon where "involution" competition is prevalent across various industries [21][24]. - The reasons behind the two phases differ. Supply-side reform was largely a response to overcapacity resulting from stimulus policies, while anti-involution is influenced by a wider array of macroeconomic and industry-specific factors, including the deep adjustment in the real estate sector and the transition to new production forces [30][32]. - The implementation paths diverge as well. Supply-side reform focused on traditional industries with administrative measures to cut capacity, while anti-involution emphasizes legal and market-based approaches to regulate competition and foster innovation [40][43].

国内房价近年下跌是多重因素交织作用的结果，核心原因可归纳为以下关键层面： 四、城市分化加剧市场脆弱性 房价下跌本质是"高杠杆扩张+人口红利消退+政策纠偏" 的历史性结果7 。 。 。 一、供需结构性失衡 1. 供给严重过剩 新房库存高企：全国商品房待售面积达7.5亿平方米7 ，广义库存需5.7年才能消化7 ； 二手房激增：重庆、武汉等城市挂牌量突破20万套7 ； 空置率畸高：全国住房空置率约15%（对应380亿平方米）7 ，三四线城市尤为严重（如鹤岗套户比达17）5 1. 需求持续萎缩 城镇化放缓：城镇化率达65.2%，增速从年均2000万降至1000万人口7 ； 主力购房人口减少：25-44岁人群较2015年减少6000万7 ； 婚育需求锐减：生育率降至1.09（低于日本）7 ，2024年结婚人数预计跌破500万7 。 二、政策与金融环境剧变 1. "房住不炒"政策深化 限购、限贷、限售政策抑制投机需求，投资购房占比从23%降至11%7 ； 保障房分流市场：深圳保障房价格比周边低40%5 1. 金融风险暴露 房企高杠杆危机：开发商依赖银行融资扩张（如恒大负债2.4万亿）7 ，房价下跌引发资金链断裂； 居民负 ...

供应端，近期在安监、环保压力以及局地降雨影响下，煤炭主产地产销活动均受到一定影响，区域煤矿 货源紧俏，叠加地销及下游询货积极性提高，主产地煤矿价格不断探涨，且出现捂货惜售的情况。本周 期，环渤海港口到港量呈现震荡减少局面，尽管库存未出现明显下降，但货源结构性问题凸显，个别港 口已出现船等货现象。供应受限及优质货源结构性短缺，支撑贸易商看涨情绪不断升温，市场价格上涨 具备供应端支撑。 整体来看，本周期在消费旺季阶段性供需结构性问题的提振下，沿海市场价格出现持续性探涨行情，创 下近两个月新高。后续来看，随着主产地煤矿恢复正常生产，沿海供应将有序增加，叠加全国大范围降 雨降温，电煤消耗预期减少，供需结构性问题缓解，沿海市场或将进入僵持博弈期。 新华财经太原7月16日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网16日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于663元／ 吨，环比上行1元／吨。分析认为，本周期，沿海煤炭市场夏季耗煤高峰特征显现，煤炭采购增加支撑 沿海煤炭市场价格持续上涨，在产地发运低迷态势下供需结构性失衡为价格上涨的持续性提供支撑，环 渤海动力煤价格指数同步上涨。 需求端，国家能源局数据显示，入夏以来我国电力负荷两次创历史新高，1 ...