东京通胀四个月来首次放缓，因能源价格涨势减弱，且市政府在全国大选前减免了部分家庭水费。此次 选举很可能以生活成本危机为中心议题。周五公布的数据显示，6月份东京都剔除生鲜食品的消费者价 格同比上涨3.1%，低于经济学家预估中值3.3%。 标普全球市场财智首席经济学家田口晴海表示："本次数据中，米价涨势放缓与能源价格拖累效应显 著，政策因素确实压低了整体数值。由于进口价格持续回落，未来上行压力已不及此前强劲。" 作为全国数据的领先指标，东京通胀放缓或为石破茂首相在7月20日参议院选举前赢得喘息空间。上周 东京都选举中，执政的自民党遭遇史上最差战绩，持续高通胀引发民众不满。 日本首相上月重启汽油补贴政策，5月同比暴涨超一倍的米价引发举国关注，政府随即采取释放应急储 备等措施。农林水产省数据显示，这些措施实施后，大米周均价格已连续四周回落。 整体通胀率同样为3.1%，较5月份的3.4%有所回落。这一数据仍远高于日本央行2%的价格目标，在全球 贸易不确定性消除后，央行将继续考虑下次加息的时机。 电价同比上涨5.3%，较上月10.8%的涨幅明显放缓，天然气和燃料油价格涨幅也有所收窄。汽油价格同 比下跌1%，逆转了上月6. ...

Group 1 - Investors are fleeing U.S. long-term bond funds at the fastest rate since the COVID-19 pandemic began five years ago, with nearly $11 billion in net outflows in the second quarter, marking a stark contrast to the previous 12 quarters' average inflow of $20 billion [1] - The outflow reflects deep anxiety regarding the U.S. fiscal path, as the proposed tax reform is expected to add trillions to the national debt over the next decade, leading to a significant increase in bond issuance [1][2] - The current environment is characterized by high volatility and inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, causing panic in the long end of the yield curve and general unease among investors [2] Group 2 - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real value of fixed interest payments, leading to a decline in long-term U.S. Treasury prices by approximately 1% this quarter [2] - In contrast, over $39 billion flowed into short-term U.S. Treasury funds this quarter, as these funds offer attractive yields amid the Federal Reserve's high short-term interest rates [2] - Investors may prefer to diversify their bond holdings globally, but the U.S. Treasury market is not expected to lose its status as a core asset in global fixed income portfolios [3]

芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比提出，若通胀数据明确趋近2%目标且经济不确定性消退，降息可能提上日程，但 他同时强调需确认关税影响可控。鲍威尔在国会听证会上重申，关税的不确定性使美联储暂缓行动，当前 政策立场具备灵活性。 特朗普本周继续施压美联储降息，并批评鲍威尔的利率政策，但白宫尚未明确鲍威尔的继任者人选。芝加 哥联储主席古尔斯比对此回应，通过人事任命干预货币政策不会产生实际效果。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利及美联储主席鲍威尔等决策者近期均强调，需更多经济数据 以确认通胀回落的持续性。戴利在采访中重申其"秋季降息"的开放态度，但明确排除七月会议采取行动的 可能性，指出关税对物价的具体影响仍需观察。波士顿联储主席柯林斯则直言，单月数据不足以支撑决 策，需等待更长期限的数据验证通胀趋势。 劳动力市场方面，最新数据显示持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来高位，但首次申请失业救济人 数环比回落。戴利认为当前就业市场处于"放缓但稳健"状态，未现需紧急政策响应的疲软信号。里士满联 储主席巴尔金警告，关税可能推高物价压力，美联储应保持耐心以待形势明朗。 本周，多位美联储官员就降息时机及通胀前景发表公开言论，内 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周四（6月26日）震荡收跌，开盘价3325.78美元/盎司，最高价3350.34美元/盎司，最低价3309.91美元/ 盎司，收盘价3324.81美元/盎司。 消息面： 周四公布的美国至6月21日当周初请失业金人数录得23.6万人，低于市场预期24.5万人，前值为24.5万人；美国 第一季度实际GDP年化季率终值录得-0.5%，低于市场预期-0.2%，前值为-0.2%；美国第一季度核心PCE物价指 数年化季率终值录得3.5%，高于市场预期3.4%，前值为3.4%；美国第一季度实际个人消费支出季率终值录得 0.5%，低于市场预期1.2%，前值为1.2%。 评论称，美国上周初请失业救济金的人数下降，但6月失业率可能上升，因为更多的失业者难以找到工作。劳 工部周四公布，截至6月21日当周初请失业金人数减少1万人至23.6万人，低于预期。这些数据包括上周的美国 独立日假期，在公共假期期间申请往往不稳定。尽管如此，裁员潮仍在加剧，经济学家称特朗普总统的广泛进 口关税正令企业难以规划前景。当前裁员规模仍处历史低位，但招聘持续疲软，使失业者更难觅得新机会。在 截至6月14日的一周内，续请失业金人数增加了 ...

周四，旧金山联储主席戴利在接受媒体采访时的发言颇具代表性。她坦言，尽管目前有越来越多的证据显示，关税因素或许不会造成通胀的大幅且持续攀 升，但这并未改变她对利率调整时机的判断 —— 她依旧仅对 "秋季" 降息持开放态度。戴利强调："一段时间以来，我始终认为秋季是开始调整利率的合适 时机，这一观点从未动摇。" 她的这番表态，不仅体现出美联储内部在利率决策上存在明显分歧，也折射出美联储在平衡经济增长与通胀目标时的谨慎态 度。 从经济数据层面来看，今年物价降温幅度超出市场预期。美联储重点关注的物价指数在 4 月份上涨了 2.1%，虽略高于央行设定的 2% 目标，但已呈现出放 缓态势。然而，就业市场数据却喜忧参半。周四公布的数据显示，持续申请失业救济的人数飙升至 2021 年 11 月以来的最高点，且过去六周一直保持大幅增 长趋势，这意味着有更多人面临长期失业困境；与之形成对比的是，截至 6 月 21 日的一周内，首次申请失业救济的人数有所下降。这种矛盾的数据表现， 让美联储在制定政策时更加举棋不定。 面对这样的经济形势，戴利坚持认为，尽管劳动力市场出现放缓迹象，但尚未出现明显的疲软警告信号。她多次重申，当前的货币政 ...

张尧浠：市场因素交错不定、金价维持震荡偏弱调整 昨日周四(6月26日)：国际黄金震荡收跌，继续处于中轨及短期均线下方，但也运行在60日及上升趋势线之上，暗示后市仍偏向震荡调整，但方向上，仍 有再度上行的潜力。重点关注上升趋势线和100日均线形成的两段看涨支撑位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3332.70美元/盎司，先行震荡走强，于欧盘初录得日内高点3350.27美元，之后则遇阻回落，到美盘时段空头力量加大，连续 坠落录得日内低点3309.77美元，最终有所止跌回升，但遇阻3336美元再度回撤，收于3327.63美元，日振幅40.5美元，收跌5.07美元，跌幅0.15%。 基本面上，当前黄金市场正处于多重因素的交错之中，市场情绪略显疲态和观望情绪，而使得金价偏弱调整。再加上之前在历史高点附近被套的交易者不 断在反弹的同时不断选择止损出货而降低了多头力量。 短期内，走势将继续依托地缘局势的缓解，各国于美国关税偏向乐观的倾向，和技术调整压力而偏弱运行。 但较长期来看，几度呼吁鲍威尔降息的美国总统特朗普表示将会重新选择下任美联储主席，这将令市场仍为降息将会很快到来，市场也偏向在7月或9月降 息，使得年内仍处于降息周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Mexico has decided to cut the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for the fourth consecutive time, lowering it from 8.5% to 8%, marking the lowest level since 2022. This decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation control to concerns about economic growth slowdown [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision was made amidst internal disagreements within the board, with a 4-1 vote, where Vice Governor Jonathan Heath cast the only dissenting vote advocating for no change in rates [1]. - The current rate cut indicates a preference for a more accommodative policy to stimulate economic activity despite ongoing inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Unlike previous meetings, the latest statement did not explicitly indicate the possibility of further 50 basis point cuts, suggesting a potential slowdown in future easing measures [1]. - Analysts predict that if inflation continues to decline and economic data remains weak, the benchmark rate could drop to 7.5% or lower by the end of the year, although any rebound in inflation or adverse external conditions could limit further easing [2].

Market Performance - US stock market closed higher with the Dow Jones rising over 400 points, marking a four-day winning streak for the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approached historical highs [1][3][4] - As of the close, the Dow Jones increased by 0.94% to 43,386.84 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.8% to 6,141.02 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.97% to 20,167.91 points, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq achieving their second-highest closing records [3][4] Economic Outlook - UBS warned that the current short squeeze in the US stock market may be nearing its end, with their tracked short squeeze index recently surging by 43%, while indicators of true risk appetite have been weakening [5] - Historical data suggests that similar intensity short squeezes typically result in average declines of 11% for the S&P 500 and 13% for the Nasdaq within three months following the peak [5] - JPMorgan analysts indicated a 40% probability of the US entering a recession in the second half of the year, citing potential negative impacts from US tariff policies on global economic growth and inflation [5] Federal Reserve Commentary - Federal Reserve officials have been vocal, with discussions around the potential early announcement of a successor to Jerome Powell by Trump, aimed at influencing market interest rate expectations [7] - Fed officials expressed confidence in the stability of the job market, with indications that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be moderate [7][8] - Fed officials also noted that while the labor market remains strong, further data on inflation is needed before making decisions on interest rate adjustments, with a focus on potential rate cuts later in the year [8] Technology Sector Performance - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Facebook and Amazon increasing over 2%, while Google and Microsoft rose over 1%. Nvidia gained 0.46%, whereas Apple and Tesla saw slight declines [10] - Barclays research highlighted that the deployment of Robotaxis could pose a significant threat to traditional ride-hailing services by 2027, although current supply chain issues are limiting rapid expansion [11] - Google DeepMind launched the AI model AlphaGenome, which can analyze up to one million DNA base pairs and predict the effects of genetic mutations on regulatory mechanisms [12]

Group 1 - The EU is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports to quickly reach a trade agreement with President Trump [2] - The US Treasury announced an agreement with G7 allies to protect US companies from certain taxes imposed by other countries, in exchange for removing the "899 retaliatory tax clause" from the "big and beautiful" tax reform [2] - The Federal Reserve Governor Daly indicated that increasing evidence suggests tariffs may not lead to significant or lasting inflation, which could support the case for interest rate cuts in the fall [2] Group 2 - The US real GDP for the first quarter declined at an annualized rate of 0.5%, a drop greater than the expected decline of 0.2%, marking the first contraction in three years [3] - The final value of US personal consumption was significantly revised down to only a 0.5% increase, the weakest quarterly performance since the COVID-19 pandemic began [4] - The core PCE price index in the US was revised up to 3.5%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [5] Group 3 - US initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, below the expected 245,000, while the previous week's continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021 [5] - US durable goods orders for May showed an initial month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014, significantly exceeding the expected 8.5% [5] Group 4 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 404.41 points to 43,386.84; the S&P 500 increased by 48.86 points to 6,141.02; and the Nasdaq Composite gained 194.36 points to 20,167.91 [6]

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 白宫：没有延长7月9日关税暂缓期的计划，此事变更将由总统决定 伊朗外长：目前伊朗没有重启核谈判的计划 贝森特要求国会剔除"899报复税条款" 古尔斯比：特朗普提前宣布鲍威尔继任者不会对FOMC产生任何影响 我国自主研发的新一代国产通用处理器龙芯3C6000发布 荣耀正式迈出了A股IPO的关键一步 随着夏季驾车季节的到来，美国原油库存因需求增加而下降，油价周四小涨。WTI原油收涨0.43%，报65.16美元/桶；布伦特原油收涨0.47%，报67.91美元/ 桶。 美股道指收涨0.9%、纳指涨0.97%，标普500指数涨0.8%，逼近历史最高点位6147.43。特斯拉(TSLA.O)跌0.5%，亚马逊(AMZN.O)涨2.4%。纳斯达克中国金 龙指数收跌0.29%，小鹏汽车(XPEV.N)跌6.5%。 欧洲股指多数收涨，德国DAX30指数收涨0.64%；英国富时100指数收涨0.19%；法国CAC40指数收跌0.01%；欧洲斯托克50指数收跌0.15%；西班牙IBEX35 指数收涨0. ...