Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, after the easing of the Sino - US trade situation, positive news such as Trump's planned visit to China in early 2026 and the European joint statement on Ukraine have boosted market risk appetite, putting pressure on precious metal prices. The transfer of inventory from New York to London has relieved the physical tightness of London silver. It is expected that precious metal prices may shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and major - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term credit risk of the US dollar. The long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Domestic and Foreign Precious Metals - **Price and Price Changes**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, London gold spot rose 2.5% to $4340.36 per ounce, London silver spot rose 0.4% to $51.72 per ounce. COMEX gold rose 2.5% to $4355.80 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.6% to $50.70 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures also showed varying degrees of increase. [5] - **Spread and Spread Changes**: The spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased by 48.5%, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 31.8%. The spread of gold domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 21.4%, and the spread of silver domestic - foreign (TD - London) decreased by 1.2%. The SHFE and COMEX gold - silver ratios both increased by 1.9%. [5] 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - **Position Data**: From October 17 to October 20, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR position rose 1.09% to 1058.66 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV position rose 1.76% to 15769.7749 tons. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of change. [5] - **Inventory Data**: On October 21, 2025, compared with October 20, SHFE gold inventory rose 2.32% to 86565.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased 12.44% to 749362.00 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory decreased 0.19%, and COMEX silver inventory decreased 0.59%. [5] 3.3 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Interest Rate and Exchange Rate**: From October 20 to October 21, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.06% to 7.09, the US dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.62, the 2 - year US Treasury yield remained unchanged at 3.46%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.50% to 4.00%. [5] - **Stock Market and Commodity Market**: The VIX index decreased by 12.27%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.07% to 6735.13, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.56% to $56.93. [5] 3.4 Market Review and Outlook - **Market Review**: On October 21, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.02% to 994.06 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.2% to 11805 yuan per kilogram. [5] - **Short - term Outlook**: Precious metal prices may still need some adjustment in the short - term, but due to factors such as the ongoing US government shutdown and the expected interest - rate cut in October, prices are unlikely to continue to decline significantly. Domestic silver prices may be relatively resistant to decline, and prices are expected to shift to a high - level wide - range oscillation. [6] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the long - term, the center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up, and long - term investors are advised to go long on dips. [6]

黄金价格在近期冲高后正处于高位震荡阶段。10月17日，黄金价格盘中一度突破4390美元/盎司的历史 峰值。就在市场正在等待黄金突破4400美元关口，10月21日黄金价格却出现下调。10月21日下午现货黄 金已失守4300美元关口，晚间黄金价格再度快速下探。 "金价涨得快，势必调整会更加剧烈。"汇管信息研究院副院长赵庆明在接受贝壳财经记者采访时表示， 从今年8月底至今的2个月时间内，黄金价格已经上涨了约1000美元。 在赵庆明看来，这轮金价上涨主要是全球看多情绪驱动。地缘政治、全球央行购金、全球流动性过剩是 推动黄金上涨的三大因素。但目前来看，这三大因素均未有明显变化，且近期地缘政治的紧张局势出现 缓解迹象。 新京报贝壳财经记者姜樊 10月21日晚间，现货黄金持续下跌，黄金跌破4200美元/盎司，跌幅高达到3.8%。 "投资者也要立足长期逻辑，当前支撑金价长期上行的核心因素(如全球不确定性、实际利率下行趋势 等)未发生根本改变，建议把握市场节奏，采取逢低布局策略，待金价回调至合理区间时择机逐步建 仓。"瞿瑞还建议，投资者也要明确投资目标，以资产保值、对冲风险为核心，而非单纯追逐短期价差 收益，规避盲目追高导致的 ...

贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 10 月 21 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 贵金属 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 金价冲高回落，波动加剧 核心观点 上周金价冲高回落，纽约金一度逼近 4400 美元，沪金一度站上 1000 元关口。此次金价飙升是多重因素共振的结：1、美国银行业风 险成为直接导火索。美国区域性银行相继披露贷款问题，引发市场对 信贷体系稳定性的担忧。这一事件导致美国 74 家最大银行的市值单 日蒸发超过 1000 亿美元，恐慌情绪推动资金流向黄金等避险资产。 2、美联储降息预期进一步强化了金价上涨动力。市场对美联储降息 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：黄金市场在 10 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The international spot gold price has reached a record high of over $4380 per ounce, driven by increased trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and dovish statements from Fed officials. The value of gold as a hedge has been further enhanced by geopolitical risks and the trend of central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization. The large capital inflow into the Shanghai gold futures contract indicates strong market sentiment [3]. - **Copper**: Demand is suppressing copper price increases, but rising expectations of interest rate cuts may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, macro factors are the core drivers of aluminum prices. With the expansion of China's core CPI in September and expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the reduction of inventory, the Shanghai aluminum futures may show a slightly upward trend. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and its price is declining. Cast aluminum alloy has strong support due to raw material shortages and policy factors [37][38]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals of domestic and overseas zinc markets are different, with the domestic market showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Low inventory provides short - term price support, and attention should be paid to the opening of export windows and potential macro - driven factors [63]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: In the nickel industry chain, the quota for nickel ore in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is in a peak season, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are sluggish after the holiday, but export prospects are positive. Macro factors such as Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations should be monitored [77]. - **Tin**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand. Supply is constrained by the delayed resumption of Burmese mines and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, while demand is divided between weak traditional electronics and strong high - end solder demand from AI servers and new energy vehicles. Low inventory supports prices, but high prices are suppressing trading [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing. The demand from downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase, which may support the futures price [106]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly, but inventory pressure limits the upside. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The international spot gold price has broken through $4380 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold futures contract has the largest capital inflow in the domestic commodity futures market [3]. - **Influencing Factors**: Trade tensions, the US government shutdown, Fed officials' dovish statements, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases are the main factors driving the rise in gold prices [3]. Copper - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures main contract is 84,390 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.78%. London copper has a daily increase of 0.45% [16]. - **Market Outlook**: Demand restricts price increases, but interest rate cut expectations may lead to a rebound. The 86,000 yuan per ton level is a key resistance point [15]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai aluminum futures main contract is 20,910 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Alumina futures main contract price is 2,800 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0.36% [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Macro factors drive short - term price trends. Aluminum inventory is decreasing, while alumina is in an oversupply situation [37]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,815 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. London zinc has a daily increase of 0.85% [64]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic and overseas zinc markets have different fundamentals, and low inventory provides short - term price support [63]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel futures main contract is 121,160 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0%. The stainless steel futures main contract price is 12,630 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 0% [78]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel ore quota in 2026 is expected to decrease. The new energy sector is booming, while nickel iron prices are weakening. Stainless steel sales are slow, but export prospects are positive [77]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest price of Shanghai tin futures main contract is 280,750 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 0.21%. London tin has a daily increase of 1.01% [92]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin market has a pattern of tight supply and differentiated demand, and low inventory supports prices [91]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 75,700 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 760 yuan [107]. - **Market Outlook**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which may support the futures price [106]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Data**: The latest price of industrial silicon futures main contract is 8,430 yuan per ton, with a daily decline of 2.03%. Polysilicon and other product prices are also provided in the report [117]. - **Market Outlook**: As the dry season approaches, industrial silicon production cuts may increase, and prices may rise slightly. The polysilicon market is affected by news and has weak fundamentals [117].

Core Insights - The price of gold jewelry brands such as Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang has surged to 1235 RMB per gram, marking a historic breakthrough above 1230 RMB [1] - International gold prices have skyrocketed, with London spot gold exceeding 4225 USD, reflecting a weekly increase of approximately 200 USD [3] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts have significantly boosted the gold market, with the dollar index dropping to a multi-month low of 98.65, making gold more attractive to investors [3] Group 1: Market Trends - Global central banks are purchasing gold at the fastest pace in decades, with the People's Bank of China increasing its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months [5] - In Q2 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 166 tons, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to continue increasing their gold holdings in the coming year [5] - High gold prices have led to a 26% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry consumption in China during the first half of 2025, while sales of gold bars and coins increased by 23.69% [7] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly viewing gold as a savings method rather than just for decoration, leading to a 249% year-on-year revenue increase for Lao Pu Gold [8] - The average transaction value at Beijing SKP stores rose from 25,000 RMB in 2024 to over 40,000 RMB in July 2025 [8] - The Shenzhen Shui Bei gold market faced turmoil with several gold merchants experiencing operational issues, prompting warnings from the Shenzhen Jewelry Association regarding high-leverage virtual betting activities [8] Group 3: Investment Adjustments - Several banks, including ICBC and Bank of China, have raised the minimum purchase threshold for gold investment products, now generally ranging from 750 to 1000 RMB [10] - The gold recycling market has seen a surge in activity, with reports of a 50% increase in customers returning gold for cash [11] - Despite the overall increase in gold prices, the gold repurchase business in the Shui Bei market showed lackluster performance during the recent holiday period [11] Group 4: Price Dynamics - As of October 16, 2025, London gold was reported at 4227.91 USD per ounce, with a daily high of 4234.36 USD [11] - The Shanghai gold futures contract was priced at 968.1 RMB per gram, reaching a peak of 969.62 RMB on the same day [11] - Analysts suggest that while gold prices may experience short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive due to global economic conditions characterized by high debt and low growth [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international gold prices continue to rise, having surpassed $4200 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [1][2] - The rapid increase in gold prices began in late August, with a rise of over 25% from August 21 to October 15, driven by increased global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are identified as a triggering factor for the gold price surge, with multiple risk factors contributing to heightened market anxiety and increased demand for gold [1][2] Group 2 - Central banks around the world have been key drivers of rising gold prices, with a reported increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2 of this year, maintaining a historical high [2] - It is expected that central banks and investors will continue to increase their gold holdings due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and weakening confidence in the dollar system, providing ongoing support for gold prices [2] - Long-term predictions suggest that gold will maintain its unique advantages in risk aversion and inflation protection, with Goldman Sachs raising its forecast for gold prices to $4900 per ounce by December 2026 [2] Group 3 - Short-term gold price increases may be driven by various risk sentiments, but underlying factors such as worsening US federal debt and ongoing central bank gold purchases provide strong support for the gold market [3] - Despite current favorable conditions, there is a cautionary note regarding potential profit-taking and demand exhaustion that could lead to price corrections [3] - Investors are advised to be aware of potential negative factors, such as competition from other metals and the rise of digital currencies, which may challenge gold's status as a safe-haven asset [3]

Group 1 - The international gold price has surged, breaking the $4200 per ounce mark for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, making it one of the best-performing assets globally [1] - The rapid rise in gold prices began in late August, with a more than 25% increase from August 21 to October 15, driven by rising global risk aversion and declining confidence in the US dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are identified as a triggering factor for the gold price increase, with multiple risk factors contributing to heightened market anxiety and increased demand for gold [1] Group 2 - Central banks around the world have been key drivers of the rising gold prices, with a reported increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2, maintaining a historical high [2] - It is expected that central banks and investors will continue to increase their gold holdings due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and weakening confidence in the dollar system, providing ongoing support for gold prices [2] - Long-term projections indicate that gold will continue to be favored for its unique attributes in risk aversion and inflation protection, with Goldman Sachs raising its gold price forecast for December 2026 from $4300 to $4900 per ounce [2] Group 3 - Short-term gold price increases may be driven by various risk sentiments, but underlying factors such as the worsening US debt situation and central bank gold purchases provide strong support for the gold market [3] - Despite favorable conditions, the rapid rise in gold prices may lead to profit-taking and potential downward pressure, necessitating caution among investors [3] - Potential challenges to gold's long-term high prices include competition from other low-priced metals and the rise of digital currencies, which may affect gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant rise from early 2023 to October 2025, reflecting deep changes in the global economic landscape, with prices expected to continue rising towards $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][7]. Market Dynamics - In 2023, gold prices fluctuated between $1800 and $2000 per ounce, influenced by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes and concerns over inflation and economic recession. Domestic gold prices remained stable at 500-550 RMB per gram, with moderate growth in physical consumption and investment demand [4]. - 2024 marked a turning point as expectations for interest rate cuts grew, alongside increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a rise in gold's safe-haven appeal. International gold prices surpassed $2500 per ounce, while domestic gold T+D prices exceeded 700 RMB per gram [4]. - By 2025, gold entered a "super bull market," with prices rising from approximately $2667 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $4000 by October. Domestic gold T+D prices reached 968 RMB per gram, marking a nearly 20% increase since the start of the year [5]. Influencing Factors - The shift in U.S. monetary policy, particularly the expectation of interest rate cuts, has been a key driver for gold prices. By September 2025, the market anticipated further rate cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [5][6]. - Increasing U.S. fiscal risks and concerns over dollar credit have enhanced gold's appeal as a hedge against currency uncertainty. The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks, including China, has further supported gold prices [6]. - Investment demand has surged, with significant increases in gold recycling and inflows into gold ETFs, compensating for weaker physical consumption [6]. Market Predictions - Market institutions generally maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with several banks projecting prices to reach $5000 per ounce by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its target to $4900, while some analysts predict prices could hit $10,000 by 2030 [7]. - However, there are differing views on short-term price movements, with some banks forecasting potential corrections and a return to below $3000 in the coming quarters [7][8]. - The long-term narrative supporting gold's rise remains intact, driven by the restructuring of the international monetary system and ongoing central bank purchases, although unexpected strong economic data or easing geopolitical tensions could signal a peak in prices [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by heightened risk aversion due to ongoing trade tensions, the U.S. government shutdown, recession fears, and the Federal Reserve's shift towards interest rate cuts, which have collectively driven gold and silver prices to new highs [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold and silver have shown remarkable performance year-to-date, with Shanghai gold rising approximately 55% and Shanghai silver increasing about 57%, while COMEX gold and silver prices have surged around 59% and 75% respectively [1]. - The renewed trade tensions have acted as a catalyst for increased market risk aversion, leading to a preference for gold and silver as safe-haven assets [1][4]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates has made precious metals more attractive as non-yielding assets, further boosting their demand [1][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks are strategically increasing their gold reserves, providing structural support for gold prices. As of September, China's central bank reported a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces, up from 74.02 million ounces in August, marking eleven consecutive months of gold accumulation [2]. - The World Gold Council indicates that by August 2025, seven countries, including China, are expected to increase their gold holdings by 2 tons or more, driven by strategic security and asset allocation needs [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Recent geopolitical developments, such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, have not significantly reduced global geopolitical risks, which remain elevated due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Pakistan-Afghanistan border [2]. - The market anticipates a strong likelihood of the Federal Reserve adopting a more aggressive easing policy in response to potential economic downturns, with a 95.67% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October and a cumulative 50 basis point cut by December [3]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Multiple favorable factors are contributing to a strong outlook for precious metals, including persistent geopolitical uncertainties, the Federal Reserve's easing stance, and ongoing strategic accumulation by global central banks [4]. - Despite potential technical corrections, the mid-term upward trend in precious metal prices is expected to continue, with a focus on monitoring key driving factors [4].