Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Insights - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 is 1.59%, showing a slight decrease of 1 basis point compared to H1 2025, indicating resilience in the interest margin despite a minor decline in the yield on interest-earning assets [3] - The asset quality has improved, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing by 5 basis points to 1.12% and the provision coverage ratio increasing by 9 percentage points to 365%, reflecting strong risk mitigation capabilities [3] - The company has increased its efforts in recognizing non-performing loans and managing risks, which may temporarily affect profit performance but is expected to lead to continued improvement in asset quality [3] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Based on Q3 2025 financial data, the forecasted growth rates for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5.7%, 8.3%, and 8.5% respectively, with projected BVPS of 12.05, 13.12, and 14.29 yuan [4] - The current stock price corresponds to PB ratios of 0.58X, 0.53X, and 0.49X for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at 8.19 yuan per share [4][6] Key Financial Metrics - As of 2023, the company's operating income is projected at 27,956 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of -3.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 10,902 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [5] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 1,441,082 million yuan in 2023 to 1,852,998 million yuan by 2027 [13]

证券研究报告 | 2025年10月31日 邮储银行（601658.SH）2025 年三季报点评 优于大市 对公贷款增长快，业务格局更均衡 收入利润延续正增长。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 2651 亿元，同比增长 1.8%，增速较上半年回升 0.3 个百分点；前三季度实现归母净利润 766 亿元， 同比增长 1.0%，增速较上半年回升 0.2 个百分点。收入和净利润延续上半年 正增长的态势。前三季度年化加权平均 ROE10.7%，同比下降 1.1 个百分点。 资产规模较快增长，对公贷款增长强劲。公司三季末总资产同比增长 11.1% 至18.6万亿元，较年初增长8.9%。三季度末客户存款较年初增长6.1%至16.2 万亿元，贷款总额较年初增长 8.3%至 9.7 万亿元。其中公司贷款较年初增长 17.9%，主要是加大对先进制造、绿色金融、科技金融、普惠金融等领域的 信贷投放力度，零售与对公"双轮驱动"格局更加均衡。个人贷款较年初增 长 1.9%，票据贴现较年初略微压降。公司报告期内完成资本补充，三季度末 核心一级资本充足率 10.65%，较年初提升 1.09 个百分点。 净息差下降。前三季度日均净息差 1. ...

Summary of China Banks 3Q25 Wrap Industry Overview - The report focuses on the banking sector in China, particularly the performance of state-owned enterprises (SOE) and shareholding banks in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) [1][6]. Key Points Core Operating Trends - Despite a decline in investment income, many banks reported improving net interest income (NII) growth and healthy fee income growth in 3Q25 [1][3]. - SOE banks experienced higher profit growth in 3Q25 compared to the first half of 2025, supported by stable credit quality [1][2]. - Ningbo and Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) outperformed peers with above-average trends in NII growth [1][2]. Net Interest Income (NII) and Net Interest Margin (NIM) - Most shareholding banks reported a rebound in NIM in 3Q25, aided by lower funding costs and prudent loan growth [2][11]. - Minsheng and SPDB achieved both quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and year-on-year (YoY) NIM improvements, focusing on risk management rather than volume growth [2][12]. - Ningbo maintained the highest NII growth within the coverage, benefiting from market share gains and lower NIM pressure [2][11]. - SOE banks faced persistent NIM pressure due to increased growth in lower-yielding bond investments [2][12]. Fee Income Growth - Average fee income growth increased significantly from 1.4% YoY in 2Q25 to 11.1% in 3Q25, driven by capital market activities and strong insurance sales [3][16]. - Bank of Ningbo led with a remarkable 94% YoY growth in fee income, while ABC reported a 23.6% YoY increase [3][16]. - The overall fee income growth for SOE banks averaged 9.8% YoY, with several banks reporting double-digit growth [16][27]. Credit Quality and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) - Credit quality remained stable in 3Q25, with an average NPL ratio flat at 1.15% for covered banks [4][10]. - SOE banks reduced credit costs modestly to support profit growth, maintaining a high NPL coverage ratio of 263% on average [4][10]. Profit Growth - Covered banks reported modest profit growth of 1.9% YoY in 3Q25, with some banks exceeding consensus estimates [10][22]. - SPDB, Huaxia, and Citic led the profit rebounds among joint-stock banks (JSBs) with growth rates of 10.3%, 7.6%, and 3.5% YoY, respectively [22][23]. Investment Income and Revenue Trends - Revenue and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) growth were affected by lower investment income due to higher bond yields [3][20]. - ABC and BoCom bucked the trend by reporting higher investment income, revenue, and PPOP, indicating strong investment capabilities [3][20]. Dividend Payouts - Several banks, including Minsheng, Citic, and regional banks like Ningbo, announced interim dividend payouts, reflecting confidence in their financial health [9]. Cost-Income Ratio - The average cost-income ratio increased modestly by 0.2 percentage points across banks, with some banks reporting improvements while others saw increases [21]. Future Outlook - Banks expect NIM pressure to moderate further, with ICBC guiding for a full-year NIM of 1.26%, down from 1.28% in 9M25 [13][15]. - Overall, banks are optimistic about continued profit growth and fee income performance in the upcoming quarters [17][18]. Conclusion - The banking sector in China showed signs of recovery in 3Q25, with improving core operating metrics, stable credit quality, and a rebound in fee income. However, challenges remain with NIM pressure and fluctuating investment income impacting overall revenue growth.

Core Viewpoint - Postal Savings Bank of China reported a steady increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating enhanced operational resilience despite a slight decline in return on equity [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the bank achieved operating income of 265.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 76.6 billion, also up 1% year-on-year [1]. - The weighted average return on equity was 10.67%, down 1.12 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Revenue Composition - Net interest income decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in the first half of 2025, indicating a gradual improvement in interest income growth since Q2 [2]. - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 20.2% year-on-year, with net other non-interest income growing by 27.5% [5]. Asset and Loan Growth - The bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 11.3% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable increase in loans driven primarily by corporate lending [3]. - As of Q3 2025, corporate loans accounted for nearly 94% of the loan growth, reflecting a strategic focus on key sectors amid weaker retail loan demand [3]. Deposit Stability - The growth rate of deposits remained stable, with total deposits increasing by 8.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by retail contributions [3]. - Retail deposits increased by 138.7 billion, while corporate deposits decreased by 27.8 billion [3]. Interest Margin and Cost Management - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.68%, a slight decrease of 2 basis points from the first half of 2025 [4]. - The bank's asset yield and cost of interest-bearing liabilities were 2.88% and 1.21%, respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure on asset yields [4]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio was 0.94%, slightly up by 2 basis points from Q2, but still considered low within the industry [6]. - The annualized non-performing loan generation rate was stable at 0.93%, with credit impairment losses increasing by 22.9% year-on-year [6][7]. Capital Adequacy - The bank's capital adequacy ratios improved, with the core tier 1 capital ratio at 10.65%, up by 12 basis points from the previous quarter [7]. - The bank is advancing its capital management strategies, potentially transitioning to advanced internal rating-based approaches to further enhance capital adequacy [7]. Future Outlook - The bank's strong asset quality, stable deposit base, and optimization potential in asset management position it well for future growth [8]. - The establishment of the China Postal Financial Asset Investment Company is expected to enhance the bank's comprehensive operational capabilities [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company has shown accelerated performance with a revenue growth of 8.3% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 8.4% in the first three quarters of 2025. The net interest income increased by 11.8%, driven by strong scale growth and stable interest margins. Non-interest income growth was modest at 0.3%, primarily affected by market fluctuations, while fee income surged by 29.3%, indicating significant growth in wealth management services [2][6][12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Performance - The company's revenue growth accelerated to 9.2% in Q3, up from 7.9% in the first half of the year. The net profit growth also improved to 8.7% in Q3 from 8.2% in the first half. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 0.76% by the end of Q3, with a provision coverage ratio increasing by 2 percentage points to 376% [2][6][12]. Scale - Total assets grew by 14.5% compared to the beginning of the year, with loans increasing by 16.3%. Corporate loans saw a significant rise of 30.8%, while retail loans decreased by 4.0%, reflecting weak demand and tightened risk controls [12][27]. Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.76%, stable compared to the first half of the year. The cost of liabilities continued to improve, with the cost of funds decreasing by 5 basis points to 1.74% [12][27]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income growth was modest at 0.3%, with fee income rising sharply by 29.3%, benefiting from a recovery in capital markets. However, other non-interest income declined by 9.0% due to market adjustments [12][27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan generation rate improved significantly, with the cumulative non-performing loan generation rate for the first three quarters at 0.93%, down 7 basis points from the first half. The single-quarter non-performing loan generation rate fell to 0.70% [12][27]. Investment Recommendation - The report suggests that the turning point for non-performing loan generation has been established, with expectations for improved retail risk pressures. The current price-to-book (PB) ratio is 0.82x, and the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 6.4x, indicating potential for upward valuation adjustments [12][27].

Core Viewpoint - The four major state-owned banks in China have shown significant growth in total assets, revenue, and net profit, supported by strong loan issuance, particularly in key sectors such as manufacturing and green finance. Group 1: Asset Growth - As of the end of September, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) leads with total assets of 52.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.18% year-on-year. Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) follow with 48.14 trillion yuan and 45.37 trillion yuan, both exceeding 11% growth. Bank of China (BOC) has total assets of 37.55 trillion yuan, growing by 7.1% [1][2]. Group 2: Loan Issuance - In the first three quarters, ABC and ICBC each issued over 2 trillion yuan in new loans, with ABC at 20,813.87 million yuan (8.36% growth) and ICBC at 20,797 million yuan (7.33% growth). CCB and BOC issued 1.84 trillion yuan and 1.76 trillion yuan in new loans, with growth rates of 7.1% and 8.15% respectively [2]. Group 3: Revenue and Profit Growth - All four banks achieved growth in both revenue and net profit. BOC reported the fastest revenue growth at 4,912.04 million yuan, up 2.69% year-on-year. ABC led in net profit growth among the four banks [6]. Group 4: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for ICBC, ABC, CCB, and BOC are 1.33%, 1.27%, 1.32%, and 1.24% respectively, showing slight decreases from the beginning of the year. ABC has the highest provision coverage ratio among the four banks [6][7]. Group 5: Market Performance - Year-to-date stock price increases for the four banks are as follows: ABC at 57.72%, ICBC at 18.05%, CCB at 10.06%, and BOC at 7.12%. ABC's market capitalization has risen to 2.74 trillion yuan, ranking second globally among banks [3][4]. Group 6: Interest Income and Non-Interest Income - The net interest income for the four banks has declined, with ICBC at 4,734.16 million yuan (down 0.7%), ABC at 4,273.08 million yuan (down 2.4%), CCB at 4,276.06 million yuan (down 3%), and BOC at 3,257.92 million yuan (down 3.04%) [7]. Non-interest income has increased, with ICBC, CCB, and BOC reporting growth rates exceeding 11% [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Changshu Bank has shown steady growth in net profit and revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, despite a slowdown in revenue growth compared to the first half of the year [4][5]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, Changshu Bank achieved a revenue of 9.05 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.36 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [4][5]. - The weighted average return on equity (ROAE) was 15.02%, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Growth Rates - The year-on-year growth rates for revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit were 8.2%, 10.1%, and 12.8%, respectively, showing a decline of 1.9, 2, and 0.7 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [5]. - The net interest income and non-interest income growth rates were 2.4% and 35.3%, respectively, with changes of 1.6 and -22 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [5]. Asset and Loan Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for interest-earning assets and loans were 11.6% and 7.1%, indicating a steady increase in loan growth [6]. Deposit Trends - By the end of Q3 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for interest-bearing liabilities and deposits were 11.4% and 9.7%, with changes of +1.9 and -0.2 percentage points compared to the end of Q2 2025 [7]. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin (NIM) for the first three quarters was 2.57%, narrowing by 1 basis point and 14 basis points compared to the first half of 2025 and 2024, respectively [8]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income for the first three quarters was 1.98 billion, growing by 35% year-on-year, but its proportion of total revenue decreased to 21.9% [9]. Asset Quality - As of the end of Q3 2025, the non-performing loan ratio and attention ratio were 0.76% and 1.58%, remaining stable compared to mid-year [10]. - The loan loss provision for Q3 was 230 million, which was a decrease of 70 million year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in provision accumulation [10]. Capital Adequacy - By the end of Q3 2025, the core tier 1, tier 1, and total capital adequacy ratios were 11.14%, 11.19%, and 13.66%, showing an increase of 0.41, 0.41, and 0.06 percentage points compared to Q2 2025 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The six major banks in China reported a combined net profit exceeding 1 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating stable profit growth and improving asset quality, while facing pressure on net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Growth - The six major banks achieved a total net profit of 1.07 trillion yuan, demonstrating strong profitability despite efforts to support the real economy [2]. - Agricultural Bank led the growth with a 3.03% year-on-year increase in net profit, while other banks showed varying growth rates: 1.90% for Bank of Communications, 1.08% for China Bank, and lower rates for Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Industrial and Commercial Bank [2]. - All six banks reported year-on-year increases in operating income, with China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank both exceeding 2% growth [2]. Group 2: Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratios for all six banks decreased compared to the end of the previous year, enhancing their risk resilience [4]. - Postal Savings Bank had the best asset quality with an NPL ratio of 0.94%, while other banks maintained NPL ratios between 1% and 2% [4]. - Agricultural Bank had the highest provision coverage ratio at 295.08%, providing a solid buffer against potential credit risks [5]. Group 3: Net Interest Margin Pressure - The banking industry continues to face downward pressure on net interest margins, with Postal Savings Bank reporting a margin of 1.68%, despite being the highest among the six banks [5][6]. - The overall net interest margin for commercial banks was reported at 1.42% for Q2 2025, reflecting a decline from previous periods [6]. Group 4: Strategies for Margin Stabilization - Banks are focusing on optimizing asset structures and reducing costs on the liability side to address the pressure on net interest margins [7]. - There is a strategic emphasis on supporting key sectors such as manufacturing and green development, with Postal Savings Bank increasing its green loan balance significantly [7]. - Analysts expect a stabilization in net interest margins in the coming quarters, aided by policy support and proactive industry transformation [8].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings reported better-than-expected performance for Q3 2025, driven by higher net interest income and wealth management revenue, with adjusted revenue of $17.9 billion, a 4% year-on-year increase, and a baseline net profit of $6.2 billion, up 1% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The main reason for the better-than-expected performance was the net interest income, which increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter and 2% year-on-year, supported by rapid deposit growth [1] - Average interest-earning assets grew by 6% year-on-year, contributing to the increase in net interest income [1] - The banking net interest margin rose by 2 basis points to 1.98%, attributed to a rebound in HIBOR since early August [1] Future Outlook - Net interest income is influenced by multiple factors, including the rapid rebound of HIBOR from below 1% to around 3.5% since August, and a year-on-year deposit growth of 5% [2] - The proportion of CASA deposits increased to 64% in Q3 2025, up 3 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2] - The company raised its 2025 Banking NII guidance from approximately $42 billion to $43 billion or better [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its 2025E revenue forecast down by 1.3% to $67.2 billion and net profit forecast down by 3.7% to $21.1 billion due to slowing non-interest income growth [2] - For 2026E, the revenue forecast was raised by 4.0% to $71.7 billion, and net profit forecast was increased by 11.2% to $27.1 billion, reflecting resilience in net interest margin [2] - The company is trading at 1.4x/1.3x 2025E/2026E P/B, maintaining a target price of HKD 111.9, indicating a 5% upside potential and a rating of outperforming the industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the steady growth in revenue and profit for Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank in the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on the bank's income sources, loan and deposit growth, and asset quality improvements [1][2][3] Revenue and Profit Summary - In the first three quarters of 2025, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank achieved operating income of 21.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 10.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - Net interest income was 17.85 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, accounting for 82.6% of total operating income [1] - Net fee income decreased by 16.7% year-on-year, while other non-interest income fell by 22.7% [1] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of Q3 2025, total loans amounted to 777.97 billion yuan, representing an 8.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The breakdown of loans includes corporate loans at 418.73 billion yuan (up 17.1%), personal loans at 303.68 billion yuan (up 3.6%), and bills at 55.56 billion yuan (down 14.0%) [2] - Total deposits reached 1.03 trillion yuan, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, with corporate deposits at 141.4 billion yuan (up 15.8%) and personal deposits at 883.02 billion yuan (up 8.9%) [2] Asset Quality Improvement - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.12%, a decrease of 5 basis points from the previous quarter [2] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 364.82%, an increase of 9.24 percentage points [2] Investment Recommendations - The bank is projected to have a price-to-book ratio of 0.61X in 2025, 0.57X in 2026, and 0.53X in 2027 [3] - Revenue growth is forecasted at 0.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with net profit growth of 5.4%, 4.8%, and 4.0% respectively [3] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.07 yuan in 2025, 1.12 yuan in 2026, and 1.16 yuan in 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]