Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 晨会纪要 第一创业证券研究所 分析师：郭强 证书编号：S1080524120001 电话：0755-23838533 邮箱：guoqiang@fcsc.com 一、产业综合组： 第 1 页 共 3 页 核心观点： 中共中央政治局 9 月 29 日召开会议，听取了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》稿在党内外一定范围征求意见的情况报告， 决定根据这次会议讨论的意见进行修改后将文件稿提请二十届四中全会审议。 根据会议决定，二十届四中全会将在 10 月 20~23 日召开。从历次五年规划的发 布看，其发展规划大多都会带来重点涉及行业的资本市场投资行情，因此我们 认为四季度到明年上半年十五五规划重点发展的行业具备较多的投资机会。 盛美上海(688082.SH)公告称，截至 2025 年 9 月 29 日，公司在手订单总金额为 90.72 亿元，与上年同期相比，在手订单总金额同比增加 34.10%。这些订单包 括已向客户交付但尚未确认收入的设备订单及将于未来交付的设备订单。总体 看，公司的订单情况较好，特别是公司在半导体制造前段用铜电 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the lecture is that China's economy is entering a critical transformation period, with a focus on key breakthroughs and development plans during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - The lecture emphasizes the integration of macro strategies and microeconomic levels, providing specific paths for China's economic development over the next five years [1][5] - The importance of addressing global changes, industrial restructuring, and technological innovation challenges is highlighted [1][5] Group 2 - The restructuring of the global economic landscape and China's strategic response is analyzed, particularly in the context of the US-China rivalry and energy transitions [3][5] - The shift from being merely a "world factory" to becoming a rule-maker in the global economy is emphasized [3] - The competition over AI chips, digital economy, and technology standards is identified as a new battleground, requiring Chinese companies to strategically position themselves [3][5] Group 3 - The strategic layout in technology independence, industrial upgrading, green transformation, and digital currency is detailed [5][6] - Emphasis is placed on technological innovation in AI chips, hydrogen energy, and high-end equipment manufacturing to overcome technological bottlenecks [5][6] - The focus on digital transformation through digital currency and enhancing financial service efficiency is outlined [5][6] Group 4 - High-quality development is identified as the main theme for China's future economy, shifting from speed to quality [6] - The need for innovation and transformation in manufacturing, technology, and energy industries is stressed [6] - Companies are guided on aligning their strategies with national strategies for efficient resource allocation [6][8] Group 5 - Systemic risks such as energy crises, supply chain risks, and financial volatility are analyzed, with specific strategies proposed for mitigation [7][8] - The impact of energy cost fluctuations on production and the strategic opportunities in renewable energy sectors are discussed [7] - Companies are advised on diversifying supply chains and managing financial risks through various strategies [8][22] Group 6 - The importance of central-local collaboration and policy support in driving China's economic development is emphasized [8][10] - State-owned enterprises are encouraged to take a leading role in high-end manufacturing and digital industries [8] - The collaboration between local governments and industry funds is analyzed for reducing R&D costs and enhancing innovation capabilities [8][10] Group 7 - Key measures and action plans for companies during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are outlined, focusing on strategic investments in AI, computing power, and green energy [10][12] - The need for precise identification of policy support areas and capital flows for investment is highlighted [15][16] - Companies are encouraged to engage in cross-border mergers and acquisitions to enhance their global market presence [16] Group 8 - The integration of green transformation and corporate social responsibility (ESG) is discussed, particularly in the context of China's dual carbon goals [33][34] - Companies are advised to establish comprehensive carbon emission management systems and engage in green technology innovation [34][19] - The importance of collaboration with supply chains and local governments for promoting green technology is emphasized [19][34] Group 9 - The need for enhanced risk management capabilities in response to complex international situations is highlighted [22][24] - Companies are encouraged to diversify their supply chains and establish long-term contracts for critical raw materials [22][23] - Financial risk management strategies, including the use of financial instruments for hedging, are recommended [23][24] Group 10 - The importance of innovation and execution capabilities for companies to gain a competitive edge in the market is stressed [24][25] - Companies are advised to strengthen strategic decoding and organizational management to ensure effective execution of strategic goals [25] - The integration of capital, technology, and industry resources is emphasized to enhance innovation capabilities [25]

中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-30 股市偏积极，债市偏谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 股指期货：整体情绪偏积极 股指期权：情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御 国债期货：债市震荡偏谨慎 股指期货方面，整体情绪偏积极。周一权益市场情绪整体偏积极，新 能源及保险券商异动，市场量能略收缩，节前预计以成长局部行情为主。 值得注意的是，券商股昨日异动，或隐含资金对于节后相对积极的看法。 我们认为节后行情能够持续的原因如下，其一，外部扰动有限，资金对于 美联储四季度降息计价偏积极，弱美元环境利于全球资本市场走势，其 二，十五五规划临近，预计科技及反内卷成为关键词，这或诱发资金提前 布局，政策的看涨期权仍在，其三，9月盘面虽有波折，但整体呈现强韧 性，这有利于吸引增量资金进入股市。故操作层面，节前半仓过节应对不 确定性，节后仍建议积极参与成长及反内卷博弈行情。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投资咨询号:Z0016853 股指期权方面，情绪偏强，但期权节前仍建议买权防御。昨日权益市 场震荡偏强，沪指单日涨幅0.90%。期权方面，各个品种市场成交额提 ...

新华社北京9月29日电 中共中央政治局9月29日召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个 五年规划重大问题。中共中央总书记习近平主持会议。 会议决定，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议于10月20日至23日在北京召开。 会议强调，坚持和加强党的全面领导是推进中国式现代化的根本保证。必须坚持以党的自我革命引 领社会革命，持之以恒推进全面从严治党，增强党的政治领导力、思想引领力、群众组织力、社会号召 力，提高党领导经济社会发展能力和水平，为推进中国式现代化凝聚磅礴力量。 会议还研究了其他事项。 原文链接：中共中央政治局召开会议讨论拟提请二十届四中全会审议的文件 中共中央总书记习近 平主持会议 中共中央政治局听取了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》稿在党 内外一定范围征求意见的情况报告，决定根据这次会议讨论的意见进行修改后将文件稿提请二十届四中 全会审议。 会议指出，这次征求意见充分发扬民主、集思广益，各地区各部门各方面对建议稿给予充分肯定， 认为建议稿准确把握"十五五"时期党和国家事业发展所处历史方位，深入分析我国发展环境面临的深刻 复杂变化，对未来五年发展作出顶层设计和战略 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-30 节前补库暂告段落，节后政策仍有预期 昨⽇⽇盘⿊⾊建材板块整体震荡回调，⼀⽅⾯，临近⻓假，前期交易 补库需求的资⾦趋于离场；另⼀⽅⾯，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10⽉份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信⼼，因 此预计板块品种价格下⽅空间有限。 昨日日盘黑色建材板块整体震荡回调，一方面，临近长假，前期交易 补库需求的资金趋于离场；另一方面，焦化限产未被证实，则使得市 场"反内卷"情绪降温。夜盘时段期价震荡为主。虽然补库逻辑趋于 结束，但考虑到10月份重磅会议召开，有望再度增加市场信心，因此 预计板块品种价格下方空间有限。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿需求高位支撑，海外矿山发运平稳，到港节奏 则收到台风扰动，基本面仍有支撑，但考虑到节前补库需求暂告段落 以及建材旺季需求有待进一步验证，因此限制铁矿上方空间，预计短 期价格震荡。废钢供需双增，但钢企补库接近尾声，且成材价格承压 导致电炉利润收缩，预计短期价格跟随成材震荡为主。 2、碳元素方面，钢厂补库 ...

Flash | 29 Sep 2025 04:29:16 ET │ 9 pages China Economics Gear Up for the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan – Takeaways from the September Politburo Meeting CITI'S TAKE The Politburo held its September meeting today to discuss the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan (Xinhua, Sep 29, 2025). We summarize our takeaways in this note. be approved at the NPC next March before official release. Timeline for the fourth Plenum — The Politburo meeting decided to hold the Fourth +852-2501-2754 Plenum of the 20th Party Congress in Beijing ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 21781 亿元，较上日放量 120 亿元。消 息面，中共中央政治局 9 月 29 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The date of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has been set, which is from October 20th to 23rd, and it will review the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development". Market expectations continue to improve, and the impact of macro - policies is gradually shifting from "removal" on the supply - side to "stability", with the incremental demand on the demand - side being the focus for the future [3]. - The National Development and Reform Commission announced 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments. Based on the project capital ratio of 20% and the new policy - based financial instrument ratio of 50%, it can drive investment projects worth 5 trillion yuan. Attention should be paid to the stabilization and recovery of the economic cycle in the fourth quarter. There are differences between internal and external expectations, with external negative impacts on global total demand rising and internal positive impacts on the economy rising [4]. Summary by Related Content Event Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided on September 29th that the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd in Beijing. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on September 29th that the scale of new policy - based financial instruments is 500 billion yuan, all used to supplement project capital [2]. Policy Background and Impact - The new policy - based financial instruments were first proposed at the Political Bureau meeting on April 25th, 2025, aiming to solve the problem of insufficient project capital and supporting funds, with the direction of "supporting scientific and technological innovation, expanding consumption, stabilizing foreign trade, etc." [4].

金 融 期 货 研 究 2025 年 9 月 30 日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 4620.05 | ↑1.54 | | 6934 | | | | | | IF2510 | 4623.6 | ↑1.49 | 3.55 | 656.5 | 47651 | ↑12556 | 61954 | ↑5672 | | IF2511 | 4609.6 | ↑1.49 | -10.45 | 7 2 | 5231 | ↑1977 | 5660 | ↑1285 | | IF2512 | 4604.6 | ↑1.53 | -15.45 | 1334.7 | 97301 | ↑25853 | 16 ...