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广发期货日评-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 02:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - A-shares are stabilizing amidst fluctuations, and domestic risk assets are expected to attract more international capital inflows. The short - term trading volume has not expanded, and the market is mainly in a fluctuating state. [3] - The overall market sentiment for treasury bonds is relatively strong. For the unilateral strategy, treasury bonds can be appropriately allocated with long positions on dips. For the spot - futures strategy, the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract can be appropriately concerned. [3] - The prices of crude oil and precious metals have declined. If the risk - aversion sentiment continues to weaken, the sold out - of - the - money call options on gold can be held. The upward drive has weakened, and the price has shifted to high - level consolidation. [3] - The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: The lower support of the index is relatively stable, while the upward breakthrough pressure still exists. The negotiation of tariffs is still in the game. The Lujiazui Financial Forum reflects the development goals of opening up to the outside world and RMB internationalization. It is recommended to try selling the put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn the premium. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The mention of monetary policy in the Lujiazui Forum is less, and the policies expected by the market have not been implemented. But treasury bond futures have not shown an obvious correction. [3] - **Precious Metals**: The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged as expected with a hawkish attitude. The risk - aversion sentiment has weakened, and the prices of crude oil and precious metals have fallen. [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract continues to fluctuate within a narrow range of 1900 - 2200. [3] Black Sector - **Steel**: The demand and inventory of industrial steel products are deteriorating. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the long - steel and short - raw material arbitrage operation. [3] - **Iron Ore**: The decline in molten iron production has narrowed, and the arrival volume has climbed to a high level. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720. [3] - **Coking Coal**: The auction non - successful rate in the market has decreased, the coal mine start - up rate has declined from a high level, and the spot market is weakly stable. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Coke**: The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 6 has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of a fourth - round price cut this week. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke. [3] - **Silicon Iron**: Pay attention to the cost changes, and the losses of manufacturers are intensifying. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5300 - 5400. [3] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit situation in different production areas is differentiated, and the futures price is fluctuating at the bottom. It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds when the price reaches 5700 - 5800. [3] Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The weak driving force continues, and the futures price fluctuates within a narrow range. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 77000 - 80000. [3] - **Zinc**: The center of zinc price has moved down, and the inventory reduction provides support for the price. Pay attention to the support level of 21000 - 21500 for the main contract. [3] - **Nickel**: The sentiment is低迷, and the futures price maintains a weak fluctuation. The fundamentals have not changed much. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 124000. [3] - **Stainless Steel**: The futures price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 13000. [3] - **Tin**: Under the strong reality, the tin price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to focus on the recovery rhythm of the supply side and adopt the strategy of shorting on highs based on the inflection points of inventory and import data. [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks are still uncertain in the short term. In the long - term, the impact of fundamental factors on the market needs to be considered. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations. [3] - **Urea**: The futures price has short - term technical correction pressure, and the upward space of the futures price requires effective verification from the news. It is recommended to take a bullish view in the short term and consider positive arbitrage at the arbitrage end. [3] - **PX**: Its own supply - demand is tight, and the cost side is strong. The short - term trend of PX is strong. Pay attention to the pressure above 7000 and the trend of oil prices. [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand is gradually weakening, but the cost side is strong. PTA fluctuates strongly. Pay attention to the pressure around 5000. [3] - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is expected to be repaired. The unilateral operation of PF is the same as that of PTA. [3] - **Bottle - chip**: During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production cuts for bottle - chips, and the processing fee may rebound from the bottom. PR follows the cost fluctuation. [3] - **Ethanol**: The shutdown of the Iranian ethylene glycol plant has boosted the rise of ethylene glycol. Pay attention to the pressure of 4500 - 4550 for EG09 in the short term. [3] - **Styrene**: Short - term energy disturbances cause the futures price to fluctuate repeatedly. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the short - selling opportunities caused by the resonance of raw material ends in the medium term. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: The purchase price of alumina has continuously declined, and the futures price is mainly searching for the bottom. [3] - **PVC**: The short - term contradiction has not further intensified, and macro - disturbances have increased. The futures price consolidates at a low level. [3] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, BR has stopped falling and rebounded. BR2507 fluctuates in the range of 11000 - 12000 in the short term. [3] - **LLDPE**: The spot sentiment is good, and the upstream is holding up the price. It is regarded as bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] - **PP**: The supply and demand are both weak, but the cost side has strong support. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the medium term. [3] - **Methanol**: Affected by the Iranian issue, the market's willingness to allocate long positions is strong. It is bullish in the short term, and positive arbitrage on the monthly spread is recommended. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Meal**: The rise of crude oil and US soybean oil supports US soybeans, and the soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. [3] - **Pig**: As the weather gets hotter, the demand is weak, and the pig price fluctuates slightly. Pay attention to the performance around 13500. [3] - **Corn**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the corn price fluctuates at a high level. It fluctuates around 2400 in the short term. [3] - **Oils**: Short - term oils may show a stagnant - rise and adjustment trend. P2509 may fluctuate around 8500 in the short term. [3] - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds, with the reference range of 5600 - 5850. [3] - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. It is recommended to trade short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level around 13700. [3] - **Egg**: The spot market remains weak. The price rebounds from the bottom and then shows a short - selling trend after the rebound. [3] - **Apple**: The market is weak, and the trading volume is small. The main contract runs around 7600. [3] - **Jujube**: The market price runs weakly and stably. It runs around 8900 in the short term. [3] - **Peanut**: The market price fluctuates. The main contract runs around 8200. [3] - **Soda Ash**: The logic of oversupply continues. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of shorting on highs on rebounds. [3] Special Commodities Sector - **Glass**: The spot market sales have improved, and the short - term futures price has support. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Rubber**: The continuous rebound of crude oil has driven up the rubber price. The short positions above 14000 can continue to be held. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The downstream demand is expected to increase, and the industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of increased production of polysilicon, and the futures price has declined with reduced positions. Short positions can continue to be held. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuates and consolidates, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run between 56,000 - 62,000. [3]
合作共谋发展,潍坊与跨国公司合作对接会举办
Qi Lu Wan Bao Wang· 2025-06-18 13:50
齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 张晓慧 潘英杰 会上,市商务局就潍坊市开放发展情况、重点对外合作领域及机遇作专题推介,市工信局就潍坊市 9+3+N重点产业链情况及合作机遇作专题推介,深入推介潍坊市产业基础、营商环境、合作机会。世界 贸易网点联盟主席、阿拉伯联合酋长国阿尔马尔詹投资与发展有限责任公司董事长、日本国驻青岛总领 事馆副领事、美国谷歌东北亚新客团队副总裁、埃及棉之花纺织公司主席在大会上发言。活动现场气氛 热烈,跨国公司总裁、高管与潍坊市重点园区和企业负责人深入恳谈交流,介绍发展需要,沟通合作意 向,取得了良好效果。会议结束后,部分参会嘉宾还到有关县市区重点企业实地考察,进一步加深了 解,洽谈合作。与会嘉宾纷纷表示,潍坊经济社会持续高质量发展,拥有优良的产业基础、通达的交通 区位优势、开放的营商环境,期待能与潍坊进一步拓展合作空间,深层次推进产业合作和经贸往来,在 更好潍坊建设中共同成就美好未来。 会议期间,潍坊市商务局还举办了"更好潍坊"图片展,以"开放之姿、活力之态、机遇之诚"为主线,展 示了潍坊深厚的文化底蕴、开放的营商环境及农业、工业方面的发展成就。 据悉,本次活动集中宣传推介了潍坊市的资源禀赋、优势产业、 ...
对外开放继续推进——政策周观察第34期
一瑜中的· 2025-06-16 12:47
文 : 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜(执业证号:S0360518090001) 联系人: 陆银波(15210860866) 袁玲玲(微信 Yuen43) 报告摘要 (四)关税相关 : 6 月 12 日,商务部举行新闻发布会。记者就中美伦敦经贸会谈内容提问," 中美 已达成协议,美国将对华征收 55% 的关税,中国将对美征收 10% 的关税,并且中国将和之前一样向 美国出口磁体和稀土材料 "。商务部发言人表示,中国"依法依规对稀土相关物项出口许可申请进行审 查,已依法批准一定数量的合规申请,并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作"。 风险提示: 政策更新不及时。 近一周,对外开放继续推进,主要涉及前沿地区试点及经验推广。 (一)试点经验推广 。 6 月 13 日,总理主持召开国常会,部署中国(上海)自由贸易试验区试点措 施复制推广工作。会议提出,"要在守住风险底线的前提下,更大力度开展制度型开放试验,加快构建 更高水平开放型经济新体制"。 (二)试点地区扩大开放 。 6 月 11 日,中办、国办印发关于深入推进深圳综合改革试点深化改革创 新扩大开放的意见, 在金融、低空经济、数据、医药等领域,赋予深圳新 ...
宏观快评:政策周观察第34期:对外开放继续推进
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-16 09:49
Policy Developments - The Chinese government is promoting the replication of pilot measures from the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to enhance institutional openness while maintaining risk control[2] - Shenzhen is set to expand its reform and innovation tasks in finance, low-altitude economy, data, and pharmaceuticals, allowing companies from the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to list on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[2][3] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to revise and expand the "Encouragement Directory for Foreign Investment" to facilitate foreign investment and reinvestment in China[3] Economic Measures - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by activating demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on risk mitigation[7][22] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing issues in the automotive sector, including reducing "involution" in the new energy vehicle industry and ensuring payment terms do not exceed 60 days[7] - A new policy aims to improve social security and public services, including raising the minimum wage and expanding access to quality education[8][27] Trade Relations - The U.S. has agreed to impose a 55% tariff on Chinese goods, while China will maintain a 10% tariff on U.S. imports, continuing to export magnets and rare earth materials to the U.S.[8][30] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining fair competition and equal treatment for foreign enterprises operating in China[32]
阿根廷驻华大使: 发展中国家以中国模式为范本应对挑战
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-06-14 05:51
Group 1 - The Argentine Ambassador to China, Ma Zhi Yuan, emphasized that developing countries, including Argentina, are using the Chinese model to address economic development challenges [1][2] - China is seen as a significant partner for Argentina, with complementary advantages in trade and economic cooperation [1][2] - The cooperation between China and Argentina in the renewable energy sector is highlighted, particularly the successful implementation of the Huachari 300 MW solar power station in Argentina [2] Group 2 - The Huachari solar power station has become a model for solar energy application in Latin America, significantly alleviating local electricity shortages and ensuring daily power supply for residents [2] - The "Local Tour of Diplomats in China" event aims to deepen the understanding of foreign diplomats regarding local regions in China and to promote international cooperation in key national development strategies [4]
青岛:179家世界500强企业在青岛投资了412个项目
news flash· 2025-06-13 03:43
在国务院新闻办公室今天举行的新闻发布会上,青岛市有关负责人表示,作为跨国公司领导人青岛峰会 的主办地,一批产业契合度高、带动性强、影响力大的标志性外资项目在青岛落地。据介绍,举办跨国 公司领导人青岛峰会已成为青岛对外开放的鲜明标识。如今,179家世界500强企业在青岛投资了412个 项目。同时,青岛拥有上合示范区、自贸片区等国家级的开放平台,为跨国公司提供了优越的发展环境 和时代机遇。此外,通过峰会,青岛充分聆听跨国公司的声音,出台了优化外商投资环境的若干措施, 市场化、法治化、国际化的营商环境日趋优化,也吸引了越来越多的跨国公司投资青岛。 (央视新 闻) 青岛:179家世界500强企业在青岛投资了412个项目 ...
移民管理领域代表与中外记者见面交流 守护国门边境 服务开放发展
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-11 22:15
Core Viewpoint - The increasing openness and stability of China is recognized globally, largely due to the efforts of immigration management police who ensure border security and facilitate international exchanges [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Immigration Management and Border Security - Immigration management police play a crucial role in maintaining border security and facilitating international exchanges, as highlighted by representatives from various border management stations [1][2]. - The daily operations at border checkpoints involve significant traffic, with one officer reporting an average of over 15,000 vehicles and 42,000 individuals processed daily [1]. - The optimization of entry policies has led to a surge in foreign visitors, with over 1.2 million foreigners entering through Baiyun Airport in the first five months of the year, marking a 41.7% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Technological Advancements in Immigration Management - The integration of information technology has significantly reduced the time required for customs clearance and lowered the costs for citizens in processing documents [4]. - New anti-counterfeiting technologies, including over ten innovative methods, have been developed to combat the challenges posed by fake immigration documents [4]. - Smart document reading machines deployed at border checkpoints can quickly verify the authenticity of documents within seconds, enhancing border control capabilities [4].
国家级经开区改革攻坚再出发
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-06-09 21:45
深化体制机制改革。理顺国家级经开区管理机构与开发建设主体的关系,下放更多经济管理权限,优化 绩效考核机制。在营商环境方面,推行"高效办成一件事"的服务理念,实现惠企政策"免申即享",减少 对企业经营的不必要干扰。这些改革措施都是为了破除制约发展的制度障碍,激发市场活力。 培育新动能。支持国家级经开区建设科技创新平台,完善产业计量测试等服务体系,推动制造业智能 化、绿色化转型。同时,鼓励发展未来产业,探索建设未来产业孵化器。在绿色发展方面,要求开展减 污降碳试点,完善碳排放核算体系。这些举措都是为了帮助国家级经开区培育新的竞争优势。 强化要素保障。要优化土地资源配置,单列用地指标支持先进制造业发展。在资金方面,允许使用地方 政府专项债券支持产业项目,支持开发主体上市融资。 《深化国家级经济技术开发区改革创新以高水平开放引领高质量发展工作方案》(以下简称《工作方 案》)日前发布。国家级经济技术开发区将在新时代承担起更重要的使命,通过更高水平的对外开放, 推动深层次改革,实现高质量发展。 当前,国际环境正在发生深刻变化,全球经济复苏乏力,贸易保护主义抬头,国际经贸规则面临重构。 与此同时,我国经济发展进入新阶段,需 ...
高能级平台引领高水平开放
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-06-09 01:02
Group 1: New Developments in Liaoning Free Trade Zones - The Liaoning Free Trade Zone is witnessing the growth of new industries, particularly in the civil aviation sector, with over 30 key enterprises forming a cluster in the Shenyang area, leading to a projected 25.4% increase in total tax revenue and a 25.9% rise in general public budget revenue in 2024 [1] - In the Dalian area, new measures for cost reduction and efficiency in vehicle import/export processes have resulted in a 27.8% year-on-year increase in second-hand vehicle import/export value, reaching 707 million yuan in 2024 [1] - The Yingkou area has implemented a new model for the supervision of imported grain, which enhances safety and efficiency through real-time data transmission and monitoring, potentially saving companies over 1,500 yuan in costs while increasing revenue by 2,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Metrics - Since its establishment in April 2017, the Liaoning Free Trade Zone has attracted a total of 5 billion USD in foreign investment and has surpassed 1 trillion yuan in foreign trade import/export value, with a projected 22% year-on-year growth in 2024, reaching 154.37 billion yuan [2] - The economic development zones in Liaoning are crucial for the province's revitalization, with 96 provincial-level economic development zones generating a GDP of 270.9 billion yuan in the first quarter of the year, reflecting a 5.9% year-on-year growth [3] - Fixed asset investment in these zones reached 68.5 billion yuan, marking an 8.3% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 3: Investment Attraction Initiatives - The province has focused on attracting investment through major platforms like the Summer Davos Forum and the China Liaoning Investment and Trade Fair, successfully bringing together over 4,000 guests from 68 countries and regions [4] - The emphasis on engaging with global 500 companies and leading domestic and international enterprises has been a key strategy for expanding both domestic and foreign investment [4] - The collaborative efforts are yielding positive results, with new projects, technologies, and business models emerging to drive high-quality economic development in Liaoning [5]
“来”“去”之间见活力
Liao Ning Ri Bao· 2025-06-08 00:36
Group 1 - The Dalian Trading Square, a 5A international office building, has commenced operations and is seen as a new landmark in the region, developed by Orix Group, Japan's largest comprehensive financial services group [1] - Orix Group has been deepening cooperation with Liaoning in various sectors since establishing its China headquarters in Dalian in 2009, indicating a strong commitment to the region's development [1] - Liaoning's business environment is described as favorable, with a strong development momentum, and Orix Group aims to leverage its advantages to gather quality resources and meet local demands [1] Group 2 - In the first four months of the year, Liaoning attracted 418.68 billion yuan in investment, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, with foreign investment showing a significant growth of 151.3% [2] - The province's exports reached 125.13 billion yuan, growing by 7.7%, which is above the national average, highlighting Liaoning's robust trade performance [2] - Liaoning's strategic location as a key node in the Belt and Road Initiative enhances its advantages for both domestic and international cooperation [2] Group 3 - Liaoning has been actively promoting cooperation with state-owned enterprises and has hosted various significant events to encourage investment, resulting in numerous new projects being signed [3] - Major global companies, including Henkel and Bucher, have established operations in Liaoning, reflecting the province's attractiveness for foreign investment [3] - Orix Group has been operating in Liaoning for 30 years and plans to expand its business and enhance its operations in the region [3] Group 4 - Liaoning is expanding its international outreach by hosting events focused on cooperation with Japan and South Korea, and engaging with Russia and Mongolia to enhance trade relations [4] - The province has organized participation in major international trade fairs, supporting local enterprises in capturing global market opportunities [4] - Exports of computer integrated manufacturing technology products increased by 21.6% in the first four months, indicating a rise in the province's innovative production capabilities [4] Group 5 - The provincial government is committed to enhancing investment attraction and project management to improve the success rate of new projects [5] - Efforts are being made to stabilize foreign trade and support local businesses in expanding their market reach [5]