中国发展网讯 记者罗勉报道 从深圳市有关方面了解到，"十四五"以来，深圳坚持以全球视野和更加积 极主动的姿态，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放，积极在服务国内国际双循环中作基地、作平台、作通 道、作枢纽，全面提升"引进来"的吸引力和"走出去"的竞争力，始终走在开放最前沿，参与全球经济合 作与竞争，引领打造共赢新格局。 越开放越能激活发展动能，越发展越有扩大开放底气。"深圳智造"漂洋过海，走俏国际市场，外贸出口 稳居全国大中城市首位。多位外国元首及政府首脑访深，国际机构、企业纷至沓来，多领域务实合作扎 实推进，"科技之城"底色更亮，"大国会客厅"功能持续增强。 同时，深圳持续健全"大招商"格局，坚持以"心诚+行程"面向全球招商引资，加强资源整合"以商招 商"，围绕深圳产业发展需求，滚动推进重点国别、重点领域项目招引，积极主动吸引和扩大利用外 全球市场"含深度" 今年1至9月，深圳机场国际及地区货运吞吐量达77.1万吨，同比增幅12.7%，刷新历史同期纪录。数据 背后，是全球"带货"能力不断提升，也折射出深圳外贸的强劲实力。 "十四五"以来，深圳外贸进出口总额达18.9万亿元，占全国比重9.5%；2024年更是以4.5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, influenced by important meeting content that boosts market risk sentiment, with slight declines in government bond futures and a majority of interbank bond yields rising by 0.5-1 basis points [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.25% at 115.01, the 10-year main contract down 0.06% at 108.005, the 5-year main contract down 0.05% at 105.615, and the 2-year main contract down 0.01% at 102.332 [2] - Interbank major rate bond yields saw slight increases, with the 10-year policy bank bond yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 1.912% and the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.35 basis points to 2.097% [2] International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 2-year yield increasing by 4.82 basis points to 3.489% and the 10-year yield rising by 5.35 basis points to 4.001% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.1 basis points to 1.659% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also rose, with French yields up by 2.7 basis points to 3.380% and German yields up by 2 basis points to 2.582% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 5-year and 7-year government bonds at 1.63% and 1.7324%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.64 and 3.24 [5] - The China Export-Import Bank's 3-year floating rate bond had a winning rate of 1.8049% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.36 [6] Liquidity and Policy - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 3.2 billion yuan for the day [7] - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasized high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key goals for the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming for significant improvements in various sectors by 2035 [8][9] Institutional Perspectives - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates that medium to long-term economic growth will remain robust, with a focus on technology and consumption as central to domestic demand [10] - CITIC Securities highlights that the core of the 14th Five-Year Plan is high-quality development, with a focus on technology, real economy, and consumption, while cautioning against expectations of large-scale stimulus in the real estate sector [10]

10月20日至23日，中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议在北京召开。这次全会是在我国即将 胜利完成"十四五"主要目标任务，进入基本实现社会主义现代化夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期召开的 一次重要会议。全会审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 （下称《建议》）。 10月24日，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。 《建议》共有15个部分 中央政策研究室主任江金权介绍，《建议》共有15个部分、61条，分为三大板块。第一板块是总论，包 括第一部分、第二部分，主要阐述"十四五"时期我国发展取得的重大成就、抓好"十五五"时期经济社会 发展的重大意义和总体要求。第二板块从第三部分到第十四部分为分论，分领域部署了"十五五"时期的 战略任务和重大举措。第三板块由第十五部分和结束语组成，主要部署坚持和加强党中央集中统一领 导，推进社会主义民主法治建设等任务。 《建议》明确"十五五"时期经济社会发展的指导方针和主要目标 中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀在发布会上表示，党的二十届四中全会通过的 《建议》准确把握我国发展的历史方位，深入分析国际国内形势，明 ...

Economic Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical phase for achieving basic socialist modernization, with an implicit growth target of approximately 4.7%[2] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in overcoming external risks while leveraging internal advantages[2] - The projected average GDP growth rate from 2026 to 2035 should not be lower than 4.4%, considering the goal of doubling GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels[2] Key Focus Areas - The significance of technology and national security has been elevated, with "self-reliance in technology" and "national security" being newly highlighted as major goals[2] - The construction of a modern industrial system is prioritized, with a focus on manufacturing, quality, aerospace, and transportation industries[2] - Emphasis on original innovation and tackling key core technologies to avoid being "choked" in strategic areas[3] Domestic Demand and Supply - The plan advocates for a dual interaction between supply and demand, promoting consumption and investment to stimulate economic growth[3] - The importance of expanding domestic demand is underscored, with a strategic focus on enhancing the domestic market's reliability and dynamism[3] Short-term Economic Goals - The meeting aims to achieve the annual economic and social development goals, with a GDP growth of 5% for the year being feasible given the 5.2% growth in the first three quarters[3] - There is potential for further policy support in the fourth quarter, with expectations of fiscal tools amounting to 1 trillion yuan being implemented[3] Risks and Challenges - Risks include misinterpretation of the meeting's spirit, potential delays in domestic policy implementation, and unexpected pressures in the real estate sector[3]

Group 1 - The "New Quality Productivity" has been incorporated into the planning framework for the first time, emphasizing the acceleration of high-level technological self-reliance and innovation [3] - The 14th, 15th, and 16th Five-Year Plans will collectively aim to achieve basic socialist modernization by 2035, with the 15th Five-Year Plan being a crucial transitional period [4][5] - The average GDP growth target for the 15th Five-Year Plan is set at 5%, reflecting the need to balance economic power dynamics and financial risk management [5] Group 2 - The focus on the development of five major city clusters has been reiterated, highlighting the importance of regional strategies and their complementary effects [6] - The 15th Five-Year Plan is expected to navigate a new economic model, with three main lines of focus: technological innovation, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing openness [7] - The goal of achieving a per capita GDP level comparable to that of moderately developed countries by 2035 has been reaffirmed, necessitating a compound nominal growth rate of over 6% in the next decade [8] Group 3 - The emphasis on maintaining a reasonable proportion of the manufacturing sector has been highlighted, with a focus on building a modern industrial system [10][13] - The need for original innovation and addressing key core technology challenges has been underscored, aiming to establish a leading advantage in global technological innovation [14]

Group 1: Overall Economic Outlook - The Fourth Plenary Session aligns with market expectations, emphasizing technology transfer to industry, reform through openness, and improving people's livelihoods while maintaining national security[4] - The economic goal of achieving a per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 remains consistent with the long-term vision[6] Group 2: Industrial Policy - Industrial policy has shifted from focusing on technological breakthroughs to emphasizing the implementation of industry, now prioritized as the first order of business[4] - The focus is on integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to form scalable industrial chains, moving beyond merely overcoming technical barriers[7] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Investment - High-level openness has been elevated from the ninth to the fifth priority, reflecting a significant shift in focus amid ongoing trade tensions with the U.S.[4] - The emphasis on sharing opportunities and strengthening cooperation with non-U.S. countries is a response to recent trade disputes[8] Group 4: Social Policies - Social policies have been prioritized, moving from the tenth to the ninth position, highlighting the importance of improving income distribution and facilitating social mobility[4] - Key measures include breaking down barriers to labor mobility and increasing the share of labor factors in income distribution to boost consumer spending[10] Group 5: Reform Focus - The reform agenda emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the marketization of factor allocation, addressing issues of fair competition and market pricing[11] - The absence of direct references to "anti-involution" suggests a focus on structural reforms rather than immediate measures[11] Group 6: National Security - National security has become a focal point, with repeated mentions in the session, particularly regarding the stability of the manufacturing sector and the importance of technological self-reliance[12] - The commitment to maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and enhancing support for original innovation and key technologies is expected to continue[12] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - Unlike previous sessions, there was no mention of fiscal reform, indicating a potentially cautious approach to fiscal policy adjustments moving forward[13] - The need for further clarification on macroeconomic governance systems suggests that fiscal reforms may still be on the agenda but are not prioritized at this time[13] Group 8: Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, discrepancies in the implementation of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and unexpected geopolitical changes[14]

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the strategic directions and key initiatives for the next five years as articulated in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and the construction of a modern economic system. Group 1: High-Quality Development - Significant achievements in high-quality development have been noted, with improvements in social civilization and living standards [3] - The focus is on consolidating and expanding the foundation of the real economy, promoting intelligent, green, and integrated development [5] Group 2: Technological Self-Reliance - There is a strong emphasis on accelerating high-level technological self-reliance to lead new productive forces, enhancing the national innovation system, and fostering original innovation [7] - The integration of technology innovation with industrial innovation is prioritized to boost overall productivity [7] Group 3: Domestic Market and Economic Structure - The strategy aims to expand domestic demand, enhance consumption, and promote effective investment, ensuring a robust domestic circulation [9] - The construction of a high-level socialist market economy is essential for sustaining high-quality development [11] Group 4: Agricultural Modernization - Addressing agricultural and rural issues is a top priority, with efforts to promote urban-rural integration and enhance agricultural productivity [15][17] Group 5: Regional Development - The strategy includes optimizing regional economic layouts to promote coordinated regional development and enhance the effectiveness of urbanization [19] Group 6: Cultural Development - There is a commitment to invigorating cultural innovation and promoting socialist culture, enhancing the influence of Chinese civilization [21] Group 7: Social Welfare and Common Prosperity - The focus is on improving living standards and ensuring common prosperity through effective social policies and public services [23] Group 8: Green Transformation - A comprehensive green transformation is planned, emphasizing carbon neutrality and ecological safety, while promoting sustainable development practices [25] Group 9: National Security - Strengthening the national security system and enhancing public safety governance are critical components of the strategy [27][29] Group 10: Military Modernization - The modernization of the military is highlighted, focusing on enhancing combat capabilities and integrating advanced technologies [32]

中金研究 党的二十届四中全会于2025年10月20日至23日在北京举行，会议公报于10月23日发布，会议审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社 会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》[1]。中国的2035远期目标并未变化，但相比"十四五"规划发布时，当前的发展条件发生了若干变化，我 们以三个方面为例。一是自主科技创新取得了显著进步，积累了丰富经验；二是房地产调整，经济结构改善，但需求偏弱；三是地缘环境 发生深刻调整。面对这些变化，"十五五"规划也将进行相应调整。比如，1）提高对科技创新的要求（抢占科技发展制高点）；2）强调扩 大内需 ； 3）把开放提到了更加靠前的位置。这些方向有助于我们理解"十五五"规划的主线。 向前看，宏观经济和政策走势如何？对各类资产有何影响？请听中金公司总量及行业为您联合解读。 宏观：新环境下的三条主线 "十四五"是中国金融周期见顶转向、经济加速转型的关键时期。 金融周期是指房价和信贷互相加强而形成的大周期，金融周期调整后，经济 发展模式由较多依赖房地产和传统基建转向更加依靠新经济的发展模式。"十四五"期间经济增速下行压力加大，但经济结构得以改善，经济发 展的质量得到提高。《第二十届中央委员 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from招商策略 highlights four key sectors to focus on until the draft proposal is released, based on the recent plenary session communiqué [1] Group 1: Key Sectors - The first sector is related to the "Strong Aerospace Nation" strategy, which includes areas such as commercial aerospace [1] - The second sector involves marine-related fields, particularly deep-sea technology [1] - The third sector focuses on themes related to foreign openness, especially following the significant elevation of related policies, such as the Hainan Free Trade Port [1] - The fourth sector pertains to areas that may see increased policy support in the fourth quarter [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report compares the core contents of the communiqués of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee and the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, covering aspects such as past achievements, development environment, guiding ideology, principles, main goals, and specific strategies for different fields [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Past Achievements - The 2025 plenary session highly evaluated the great achievements in China's development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, with the economy, technology, and comprehensive national strength reaching new levels and a good start for the second - centenary goal. The 2020 plenary session highly evaluated the decisive achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all respects [1] Development Environment - The "15th Five - Year Plan" period will face a complex and changing development environment with both strategic opportunities and risks. China's economy has a stable foundation, many advantages, strong resilience, and great potential, and the long - term positive trend remains unchanged. In 2020, China had shifted to a high - quality development stage with many advantages for continued development, but also faced problems such as unbalanced and insufficient development [1] Guiding Ideology - Both emphasize adhering to the Party's leadership, the new development concept, and the general keynote of making progress while maintaining stability. The 2025 session focuses on promoting high - quality development with reform and innovation as the driving force and meeting people's needs as the goal, and comprehensively and strictly governing the Party as the guarantee. The 2020 session emphasized deepening supply - side structural reform [1] Principles - Both stress adhering to the Party's overall leadership, the people - centered approach, high - quality development, and reform. The 2025 session also mentions the combination of an effective market and an active government, and coordinating development and security [1] Main Goals - In 2025, significant achievements are expected in high - quality development, reform, social civilization, ecological civilization, people's livelihood, and national governance. By 2035, China's economic, technological, and comprehensive national strength will be greatly enhanced, and basic socialist modernization will be achieved [1] Industry System - Both emphasize focusing on the real economy, building manufacturing, quality, and network powers. The 2025 session also mentions promoting digital China construction, developing strategic emerging industries, and optimizing traditional industries [1] Science and Technology - Both highlight the core position of innovation. The 2025 session focuses on seizing the opportunity of the technological revolution, promoting the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talents, and strengthening original innovation and key core technology research [1] Domestic Market - Both advocate expanding domestic demand and combining it with supply - side reform. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting consumption and investment through new demand and supply, and enhancing the internal dynamics of the domestic cycle [1] Economic System - Both stress improving the socialist market economic system, giving play to the market's decisive role and the government's role. The 2025 session also mentions establishing a modern fiscal and financial system and accelerating the transformation of government functions [1] Opening - up - Both advocate high - level opening - up. The 2025 session emphasizes expanding independent opening - up, promoting trade innovation, and high - quality construction of the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Rural Issues - Both prioritize solving "Three Rural Issues" and promoting rural revitalization. The 2025 session emphasizes promoting rural modernization, ensuring food security, and implementing rural construction actions [1] Regional Development - Both aim to optimize regional economic layout and promote coordinated development. The 2025 session focuses on leveraging the effects of relevant strategies and enhancing regional development coordination [1] Culture - Both adhere to the guiding position of Marxism in the ideological field and promote cultural development. The 2025 session emphasizes developing a new - era socialist culture with international influence [1] People's Livelihood - Both focus on improving people's livelihood and promoting common prosperity. The 2025 session emphasizes solving people's urgent problems, promoting high - quality employment, and improving the social security system [1] Green Development - Both uphold the concept of "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" and promote green transformation. The 2025 session emphasizes carbon peaking and carbon neutrality and building a new energy system [1] National Security - Both adhere to the overall national security concept and strengthen national security construction. The 2025 session emphasizes integrating security into all fields of development and preventing various risks [1] National Defense - Both aim to modernize national defense and the military. The 2025 session focuses on accelerating the integration of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, and improving combat capabilities [1] Party Building - Both emphasize the Party's overall leadership and strengthening Party building. The 2025 session focuses on enhancing the Party's leadership ability in economic and social development [1] National Reunification - Both aim to maintain the long - term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macao, promote cross - strait relations, and achieve national reunification [1]