新华财经北京6月24日电（崔凯）今年以来，面对内外经济环境的不确定性，美联储暂停加息，进入"观 望模式"。其主要目的是评估特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济和通胀的具体传导效应。而根据最新的 点阵图显示，美联储内部分歧渐显，其中十位官员预计2025年至少降息两次，而七位认为年内应维持利 率不变。 近期，美联储官员密集发声，围绕监管政策调整与货币政策路径释放多重信号。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯 比与负责监管事务的副主席鲍曼分别就降息前景及金融监管改革提出看法，透露出美联储在应对经济复 杂局面时的双重策略考量。 监管重构：松绑杠杆率，保护中小银行 美联储副主席鲍曼在布拉格研究会议上直言，现行补充杠杆率（SLR）规则已对美债市场流动性造 成"意想不到的限制"，呼吁重新评估这一监管工具。她指出，银行附属券商因SLR约束缩减国债交易， 可能加剧市场波动，尤其在危机时期削弱金融体系韧性。 鲍曼提议，监管改革应聚焦调整总体杠杆率框架，而非简单豁免国债资产，同时强调需将社区银行与大 型金融机构的监管标准分离，避免"一刀切"政策挤压中小银行生存空间。 此前，鲍曼曾批评"巴塞尔协 议III最终方案"过于严苛，该计划要求大型银行增加19%资 ...

Economic Data Overview - Upcoming key economic data includes the June PMI for the US, Eurozone, and Japan, with specific dates for release noted[2][12][13] - Recent US retail sales fell by 0.9% in May, below the expected 0.6%, with previous values revised down[3][10] - Eurozone's May CPI final value matched expectations at 1.9%, with core CPI at 2.3%[3][10] Employment and Consumer Confidence - Initial jobless claims in the US were 245,000, aligning with expectations, while continuing claims slightly decreased to 1.945 million[5][25] - Consumer confidence indicators are set to be released next week, which may impact market sentiment[2][12] Price Trends - Global commodity prices increased by 0.8% week-on-week, while US gasoline prices rose to $3.02 per gallon, up 1.1%[6][27] - The US import price index showed a 0% change in May, exceeding the expected decline of 0.2%[3][10] Financial Conditions - US financial conditions index remained stable at 0.292, while the Eurozone index slightly declined to 0.905, indicating tighter conditions[6][31] - Long-term bond spreads narrowed between the US and Japan, as well as between the US and Germany, reflecting changing market dynamics[6][37]

Market Performance - The US stock market continues its strong upward trend, with all three major indices reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 443.13 points, an increase of 1.05%, closing at 42,762.87 points [3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.20%, closing at 19,529.95 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.03%, closing above the key 6,000-point mark at 6,000.36 points [3] - For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.5%, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Index saw a 2.2% increase [3] Employment Data - The employment report for May exceeded market expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 125,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown amid trade policy uncertainties [4] Trade Negotiations - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is a focal point for the market, with investors cautiously optimistic about reaching a trade agreement [4] - Technology stocks performed well, with Apple shares rising by 1.6% and Tesla shares rebounding by 3.8% [4] Technology Stocks - Other major tech stocks also showed strong performance, with Google up by 3.2%, Amazon by 2.7%, Meta by 1.9%, Nvidia by 1.2%, and Microsoft by 0.6%, continuing to set closing historical highs [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating relatively stable performance for Chinese concept stocks [5] Commodity Market - In the international commodity market, oil prices rebounded due to ongoing wildfires in Alberta, Canada, affecting energy prices [5] - WTI crude oil for the nearest month rose by 1.91%, closing at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.13%, closing at $66.47 per barrel [5] Gold Prices - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with three-month gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping by 1.3% to $3,330.70 per ounce [6] - A stronger US dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices [6]

特朗普：就业数据亮眼 股市大涨 金十数据6月6日讯，特朗普在社交媒体上表示："就业数据亮眼，股市大涨！与此同时，数十亿美元因 关税而涌入！" ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that ADP reported an increase of 37,000 private sector jobs in May, with an annual salary growth of 4.5% [1]

Macroeconomic Overview - The gold market is experiencing intense long-short battles, reaching a near four-week high before retreating due to a stronger dollar, creating uncertainty [1] - The U.S. dollar rebounded by 0.6% on Tuesday, increasing the holding cost of gold and suppressing demand [1] - Trump's proposal to double steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% heightens market caution, potentially benefiting gold through safe-haven demand while being limited by a stronger dollar [1] - The Senate's tax bill may increase debt by $3.8 trillion, which could weaken the dollar in the long term and support gold prices, although short-term expectations suggest a weaker dollar may help gold rebound [1] - Signs of cooling in the labor market are emerging, with April layoffs reaching a nine-month high and May non-farm payrolls expected to show job growth slowing to 130,000, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 4.3% [1] - The Federal Reserve shows significant internal disagreement regarding the relationship between tariffs and inflation, with the June meeting expected to maintain interest rates but focus on policy guidance [1] - Gold is currently under short-term pressure from the dollar but supported by safe-haven demand, likely to continue fluctuating in the short term while maintaining long-term appeal [1] Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Tuesday, reaching a high of 99.308 and closing at 99.245 [2] - The market initially experienced a short-term decline but rebounded, breaking previous resistance levels [2] - The weekly resistance is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while the daily resistance is at 99.60 [2] - The price is currently under pressure at the daily resistance level, indicating a cautious approach towards potential short positions [2] Gold Market - On Tuesday, gold prices generally declined, with a high of 3392.02 and a low of 3332.98, closing at 3353.23 [4] - The early session saw a price surge followed by a drop below previous lows, indicating a lack of strong bullish momentum [4] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a bearish close indicating potential further declines if this support is broken [4] - Monthly analysis shows that gold is expected to maintain a bullish outlook unless it breaks below the key support level of 2780 [5] - The daily support level is at 3310, which is crucial for maintaining a bullish stance in the short term [5] - The four-hour support at 3350 is essential for determining short-term price strength, with a cautious approach recommended until this level is tested [5] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair experienced a decline on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1363 and a close at 1.1369 [7] - The market initially rose but faced pressure, breaking below the four-hour support level [7] - Monthly support is at 1.0850, indicating a long-term bullish perspective, while the weekly support is at 1.1160 [7] - The daily support level at 1.1330 is critical for maintaining a bullish outlook, with short-term pressure noted after breaking the four-hour support [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly due to recent attacks on Russian military airports by Ukraine, leading to increased market volatility and a rise in gold prices [1] - Gold prices experienced a decline of 2% last week, with a trading range of 110 points, indicating a downward trend but with intermittent rebounds, suggesting a need for continuous monitoring of market fluctuations [5] - The market is currently focused on upcoming employment data and manufacturing indices, which could impact gold prices, as well as central bank interest rate decisions from Canada and Europe [3] Group 2 - The analysis of gold's daily chart shows that despite a noticeable high-level pullback at the beginning of the week, gold prices have maintained support at 3240, indicating strong protective measures from moving averages [3] - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on resistance levels around 3338 and potential short positions if gold reaches 3310-3315, with a target support level at 3288 [5] - The MACD indicator's position near the zero line suggests a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the current market, indicating uncertainty in price direction [3]

澳大利亚统计局数据显示，4月就业人数激增89000，远高于3月的36400增幅和预期的20000，而失业率 保持在4.1%不变，显示澳大利亚劳动力市场仍然强劲。 5月份澳大利亚制造业采购经理指数为51.7，与之前的数据相同。与此同时，服务业PMI从先前的51.0下 降至5月份的50.5，而综合PMI在5月份降至50.6，较之前的51.0有所放缓。 美国经济增长放缓的担忧与澳洲相对强劲的就业数据形成鲜明对比，这种基本面差异可能继续支撑澳 元。然而，若全球贸易紧张局势再度升级，或美联储暂停降息步伐，可能打断当前上升趋势。 周四（5月22日）亚洲时段，澳元/美元保持坚挺，并朝0.6450水平迈进，最新澳元兑美元汇率报 0.6440，涨幅0.12%。尽管美元普遍走弱，但进一步降息的可能性、重燃的美中贸易紧张局势以及疲软 的澳大利亚初步采购经理人指数数据对澳元构成不利影响。 从日线图来看，澳元/美元在经历4月初的急剧下跌后，已形成明显的底部结构并稳步回升，当前澳元对 美元汇率接近0.6450水平。日线技术指标显示看涨基调，因为该货币对维持在九天指数移动平均线 （EMA）上方，而14天相对强弱指数（RSI）保持在50中立 ...

提醒：北京时间14:00，将公布英国3月三个月ILO就业人数变动、英国4月失业金申请人数变动等数据。 ...

总 量 研 究 [Table_Reportdate] 2025年05月08日 图1 CME 预计美联储降息时间节点，截至 5 月 8 日 [维持基准利率不变，强调不确定性上升 Table_NewTitle] ——海外观察：2025年5月美国FOMC会议 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 宏 观 简 评 ➢ 事件：当地时间5月7日，美联储召开5月FOMC会议，继续维持基准利率在4.25%-4.50% 不变。 ➢ 核心观点：5月FOMC继续维持基准利率以及当前缩表速度不变，符合市场的预期。同时， FOMC声明中将"经济前景不确定性有所增加"改为"进一步增加(increased further)"， 并且表示"高失业率和高通胀率风险上升"。美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上表示，当前经 济的不确定性要求美联储继续等待；实际数据中还暂未看到美国经济放缓的迹象；短期通 胀有所上升，但长期通胀依然和目标 ...