油脂：美豆长势良好 油脂偏弱震荡 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SH | 网 | 目 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6월2 | 元/吨 | 7676.00 | 7688.00 | -12.00 | -0.16% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 8126.00 | 8130.00 | -4.00 | -0.05% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | ୧月2日 | 元/吨 | 9152.00 | 9101.00 | 51.00 | 0.56% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1044.75 | 1041.00 | 3.75 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月4日 | 美分/磅 | 46.72 | 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - Palm oil is experiencing significant divergence in pressure at the origin, and is in a phase of oscillating at the bottom [1]. - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is weak, and it is showing an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,130 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.81%, and (night session) was 8,118 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.15%. Soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 7,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%, and (night session) was 7,666 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.29%. Rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,101 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.84%, and (night session) was 9,136 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.38%. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 3,950 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.41%, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 46.72 cents/pound with a decline of 0.19% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 3,248 to 656,196 lots, and open interest decreased by 35,546 to 432,781 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume increased by 3,247 to 356,149 lots, and open interest decreased by 20,106 to 579,312 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 60,229 to 603,657 lots, and open interest increased by 7,796 to 302,979 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 7,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,170 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 975 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 470 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 292 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 971 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 442 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 44 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 42 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil was 142 yuan/ton [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June will be 12.55 million tons, lower than 13.83 million tons in the same period last year and 14.2 million tons in May. It maintains the outlook of exporting 110 million tons of soybeans in 2025, which would set a new record [2][3]. - A commodity research institution says that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons. The weather is favorable for crop recovery, and the dry season this year may be shorter than usual [3]. - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in May 2025 is expected to be 2.01 million tons, up 7.74% from April; production is expected to be 1.74 million tons, up 3% from April; and exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, up 17.9% from April [3]. c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

行业 油脂 日期 2025 年 6 月 5 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 东莞菜油贸易商报价：东莞三菜 09+50 （6 月），一菜 09+250（6 月）。华 东市场豆油基差价格：一豆：6 月上 ...

油脂日报 | 2025-06-04 中加贸易摩擦或有缓和，菜系价格承压 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8196.00元/吨，环比变化+136元，幅度+1.69%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7692.00 元/吨，环比变化+54.00元，幅度+0.71%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9272.00元/吨，环比变化-76.00元，幅度-0.81%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8650.00元/吨，环比变化+180.00元，幅度+2.13%，现货基差P09+454.00，环比 变化+44.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.89%，现货基差Y09+228.00， 环比变化+16.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨，环比变化-80.00元，幅度-0.84%，现货基差 OI09+178.00，环比变化-4.00元。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期市场咨询汇总： 据船运调查机构SGS公布数据显示，预计马来西亚5月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1069643吨，较 上月同期出口的8253 ...

证券代码：839979 2025-06-04投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 油脂早报 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货7950，基差258，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月23日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征 ...

2025 年 6 月 4 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：印度降税及原油带动，短期情绪偏好 【宏观及行业新闻】 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年5月1-31日马来西亚棕榈油单产增加1.9%， 出油率增加 0.3%，产量增加 3.53%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,196 | 涨跌幅 1.69% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,198 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,692 | 0.71% | 7,716 | 0.31% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,272 | -0.81% | 9,262 | -0.11% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,934 | 1.44% | 3,948 | 0.36% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 46.81 | 1.15% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | ...

油脂日报 | 2025-05-28 策略 中性 进口大豆库存回落，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8044.00元/吨，环比变化+90元，幅度+1.13%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7740.00 元/吨，环比变化+36.00元，幅度+0.47%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9444.00元/吨，环比变化+62.00元，幅度+0.66%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8450.00元/吨，环比变化+30.00元，幅度+0.36%，现货基差P09+406.00，环比变 化-60.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格7920.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.13%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-26.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+60.00元，幅度+0.63%，现货基差 OI09+176.00，环比变化-2.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：中国粮油商务网数据显示，截止到2025年第21周末，国内进口压榨菜油库存量为90.0万吨，较 上周的92.9万吨减少2.9万吨，环比下降3.17%；合同量为11.6万吨，较上周的12.7万吨减 ...

期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8104.00元/吨，环比变化-2元，幅度-0.02%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约7814.00元 /吨，环比变化-6.00元，幅度-0.08%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9440.00元/吨，环比变化+45.00元，幅度+0.48%。现货 方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8590.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.35%，现货基差P09+486.00，环比变化-28.00 元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8040.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.50%，现货基差Y09+226.00，环比变 化-34.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9620.00元/吨，环比变化+40.00元，幅度+0.42%，现货基差OI09+180.00， 环比变化-5.00元。 油脂日报 | 2025-05-22 上涨动力不足，油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 近期市场咨询汇总：据国家粮油信息中心，船期监测显示，5月份开始我国进口大豆将集中到港，加上4月份部分 大豆受检验检疫加强等因素影响，推迟到5月份通关入厂，预计5月份进口大豆到港量将大幅增加，在1300万吨左 右，6月份到港量预 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The weather risk is constant and the oil market is experiencing wide - range fluctuations [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8106.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +108 yuan and a幅度 of +1.35% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7820.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +44.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.57% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9395.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +34.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.36% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8620.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +110.00 yuan and a幅度 of +1.29%, and the spot basis was P09 + 514.00, with a环比 change of +2.00 yuan - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8080.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +30.00 yuan/ton and a幅度 of +0.37%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 260.00, with a环比 change of - 14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9580.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of +40.00 yuan and a幅度 of +0.42%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 185.00, with a环比 change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News - As of May 18, the EU's 2024/25 palm oil imports were 2.51 million tons, compared with 3.08 million tons in the same period last year - The EU's 2024/25 soybean meal imports were 16.82 million tons, compared with 13.46 million tons in the same period last year - The EU's 2024/25 rapeseed imports were 6.28 million tons, compared with 5.07 million tons in the same period last year - The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from May 1 - 20 were 651,381 tons, a 13.73% increase from the 572,729 tons exported in the same period last month - The three major oil prices fluctuated yesterday. Argentina experienced heavy rainfall from the 13th - 18th, with a total precipitation of about 100mm in the northern part of Buenos Aires. Although 34% of the soybeans were still not harvested, satellite remote - sensing monitoring showed limited impact [2]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-05-21投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕3月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8074，基差254，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：5月5日豆油商业库存88万吨，前86万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多增。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，减少可供应量，但国际生柴利润偏低，需求疲软。 国内对加菜加征关税导 ...