油脂期货

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油脂:多头节前减仓,观望油脂持续回落
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 10:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International factors such as the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress, the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards, the narrowing growth of Malaysian palm oil exports, and the lack of progress in Indonesia's B40 plan have led to a decline in peripheral oil prices. In the domestic market, different oils have different situations: soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase with increasing imports and rising refinery operating rates, causing price pressure; palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions; rapeseed oil shows a pattern of short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Industry News - China's imports of US feed grains and oilseeds account for a low proportion of domestic consumption, are mostly feed grains, have high substitutability, and will not affect domestic food supply even if imports stop [2] - On April 25, the total commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils was 175 million tons, with week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes of - 7 million tons, - 20 million tons, and + 15 million tons respectively. Different oils had different inventory changes [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from April 1 - 25 increased by 13.8% (ITS data) and 14.8% (AmSpec Agri Malaysia data) compared to the same period in March, driven by Indian restocking and palm oil's discount to soybean oil [3] - US agricultural products are affected by China's import suspension measures, with some product prices dropping by over 20% [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3.3 Views and Strategies - Internationally, the faster - than - expected US soybean planting progress and the delay of the US EPA's decision on biodiesel blending standards have led to a decline in CBOT soybean and soybean oil prices. Malaysian palm oil exports' growth has narrowed, and Indonesia's B40 plan lacks progress, causing a continuous decline in Malaysian palm oil prices [7] - Domestically, soybean oil may enter a stockpiling phase as imports increase and refinery operating rates rise, putting pressure on prices. Palm oil prices revolve around import costs with low inventory and mainly rigid - demand transactions. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply surplus but a long - term bullish outlook due to falling rapeseed stocks [7]
多空交织,油脂延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 02:43
油脂日报 | 2025-04-29 多空交织,油脂延续震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8174.00元/吨,环比变化-202元,幅度-2.41%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7814.00 元/吨,环比变化-120.00元,幅度-1.51%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9333.00元/吨,环比变化-173.00元,幅度-1.82%。 现货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8790.00元/吨,环比变化-120.00元,幅度-1.35%,现货基差P09+616.00,环比变 化-38.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格8150.00元/吨,环比变化-190.00元/吨,幅度-2.28%,现货基差Y09+336.00, 环比变化-70.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9450.00元/吨,环比变化-180.00元,幅度-1.87%,现货基差 OI09+117.00,环比变化-7.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:加拿大油籽加工商协会(COPA)发布的油籽压榨数据显示,2025年03月,加拿大油菜籽压榨 量为1024532.0吨,环比升16.08%;菜籽油产量为436060.0吨,环比升16.77%;菜籽粕 ...
棕榈油:上涨驱动存疑,暂震荡对待,豆油:现货情绪好转,高位或有回调
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:32
Report Title - Palm Oil: Doubts about the upward driving force, temporarily treat it as volatile; Soybean Oil: Spot sentiment improves, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Core Viewpoints - The upward driving force of palm oil is doubtful, and it is temporarily treated as volatile; the spot sentiment of soybean oil has improved, but there may be a correction at high levels [1] Industry News - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase from the same period last month [3] - ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 950,957 tons, a 13.8% increase from the same period last month [5] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 25, 2025, were 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from the same period last month [6] - The Indian vegetable oil industry has urged the government to widen the import tariff gap between crude and refined vegetable oils to curb the import of processed oils and support domestic refining capacity [6] - As of the week ending April 22, 2025, in the CFTC持仓 report, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 8,711 to 191,535, and short positions increased by 3,188 to 135,851; CBOT soybean oil long positions increased by 9,688 to 133,444, and short positions increased by 4,892 to 73,053; CBOT soybean meal long positions increased by 813 to 114,769, and short positions increased by 7,653 to 145,745; ICE rapeseed long positions increased by 25,613 to 94,577, and short positions decreased by 1,369 to 46,743 [7] - In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 80% of the soybean - planted area has been harvested due to sunny and dry weather [7] - As of April 24, 2025, the soybean harvest rate in Argentina's 2024/25 season was 13%, behind last year's 23% [7] - Strategic Grains maintained its 2025/26 EU rapeseed production forecast for the third consecutive month at 1.9 billion tons, a 13% increase from 2024/25; slightly lowered the EU's next - year sunflower seed production forecast to 1.05 billion tons from last month's 1.06 billion tons, but still a 26% increase from 2024/25; and lowered the 2025/26 EU soybean production forecast from 320 million tons last month to 310 million tons, a 3% increase from this year [8] - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports decreased by 31.8% to 140,500 tons from the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed exports were 7.5224 million tons, a 72.3% increase from the same period last year. As of April 20, 2025, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.2009 million tons [9] Fundamental Tracking Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate (Day Session) | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate (Night Session) | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Yesterday's Open Interest | Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 8,376 yuan/ton | 1.77% | 8,310 yuan/ton | -0.79% - -0.83% | 963,432 lots | 273,901 lots | 414,485 lots | 22,167 lots | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 7,934 yuan/ton | 1.12% | 7,868 yuan/ton | | 536,090 lots | 196,448 lots | 646,754 lots | 47,749 lots | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,506 yuan/ton | 1.24% | 9,471 yuan/ton | -0.37% | 588,867 lots | 164,060 lots | 351,144 lots | 24,179 lots | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,058 ringgit/ton | 0.55% | | | | | | | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 49.70 cents/lb | -0.74% | | | | | | | [2] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,230 yuan/ton | 200 yuan/ton | | Grade 1 Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,420 yuan/ton | 120 yuan/ton | | Grade 4 Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 9,500 yuan/ton | 150 yuan/ton | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB Off - shore Price (Continuous Contract) | 1,005 US dollars/ton | 0 US dollars/ton | [2] Basis | Variety | Spot Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 854 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 486 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | -6 yuan/ton | [2] Spread | Variety | Spread | | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 1,130 yuan/ton | | Soybean - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | -442 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 338 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 5 - 9 Spread | 60 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 5 - 9 Spread | -45 yuan/ton | [2] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: -1; Soybean oil trend intensity: -1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [10]
棕榈油:产地主动让利,短期偏弱运行,豆油:国内低库存,品种间偏强运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-22 01:46
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to run weakly in the short - term as producers in the origin regions are offering concessions [1]. - Soybean oil is expected to run relatively strongly among varieties due to low domestic inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: - Palm oil futures (domestic) closed at 8,068 yuan/ton during the day session with a - 0.79% decline and 7,980 yuan/ton at night with a - 1.09% decline. Trading volume was 740,461 lots, an increase of 120,687 lots, and open interest was 379,404 lots, an increase of 23,977 lots [2]. - Soybean oil futures closed at 7,722 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.23% increase and 7,684 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.49% decline. Trading volume was 343,658 lots, a decrease of 23,955 lots, and open interest was 576,914 lots, an increase of 16,888 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,280 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.64% increase and 9,273 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.08% decline. Trading volume was 462,792 lots, a decrease of 69,931 lots, and open interest was 292,872 lots, an increase of 769 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: - The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 932 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 428 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 1,212 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 346 yuan/ton. Palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 472 yuan/ton, soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 68 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil News**: - From April 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 9.11% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 7.69%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.27% [3]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from April 1 - 20, 2025 were 709,397 tons, a 18.53% increase from the same period last month. SGS estimated exports at 572,729 tons, a 3.64% increase from the same period last month [5]. - Indonesia exported 2.02 million tons of crude and refined palm oil in March 2025, slightly down from 2.06 million tons in the previous month [5]. - In the first three quarters of the fiscal year, Pakistan's imports of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 116.37% and 23.42% respectively compared to the same period last year. From July 2024 to March 2025, Pakistan imported about 237,655 tons of soybean oil worth $251.137 million and over 2.489 million tons of palm oil worth $2.572 billion [5]. - **Soybean News**: - As of the week ending April 20, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting rate was 8%, higher than the market expectation of 7%, 2% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 5% [6]. - Argentina's estimated soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season is 17.9 million hectares, a 0.6% decrease from last month's estimate but a 7.8% increase from the previous year. The estimated soybean production is 49 million tons, a 1.7% increase from the 2023/24 season. In March, Argentina exported 6,832.28 tons of soybeans, 477,495.66 tons of soybean oil, and 2,099,161.14 tons of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, indicating a weak trend. The trend intensity of soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [7].
棕榈油:宏观影响减弱,震荡整理,豆油:情绪反复,驱动偏少
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-15 02:36
豆油:情绪反复,驱动偏少 2025 年 4 月 15 日 棕榈油:宏观影响减弱,震荡整理 | | | | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘) 8,748 | 涨跌幅 0.00% | 收盘价 (夜 盘) 8,750 | 涨跌幅 0.02% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,734 | 0.29% | 7,674 | -0.78% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,383 | 0.78% | 9,347 | -0.38% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,170 | -1.04% | 4,133 | -0.89% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 46.88 | -2.01% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 473,951 | -75,275 | 156,589 | -15,419 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 65,830 | -14,579 | 143,8 ...