Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The adjustment of Argentina's tariff policy has put pressure on the operation of the oil and fat market. The current poor export of US soybeans has alleviated the expected future supply gap in the domestic market, which exerts significant pressure on soybean prices. Attention should be paid to the results of the later negotiations between China and the US [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9054.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -306 yuan and a decrease of -3.27% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8086.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -280.00 yuan and a decrease of -3.35% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9996.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -147.00 yuan and a decrease of -1.45% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8860.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -400.00 yuan and a decrease of -4.32%. The spot basis was P01 + -194.00, with a环比 change of -94.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8220.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -310.00 yuan/ton and a decrease of -3.63%. The spot basis was Y01 + 134.00, with a环比 change of -30.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10220.00 yuan/ton, with a环比 change of -140.00 yuan and a decrease of -1.35%. The spot basis was OI01 + 224.00, with a环比 change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market News - An Indonesian state-owned palm oil producer aims for a crude palm oil production target of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) is 1166 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (December shipment) is 1162 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) is 1105 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (December shipment) is 1085 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) is 510 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (January shipment) is 520 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) is 459 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (November shipment) is 432 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) is 479 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day - The import soybean premium quotation: the Mexican Gulf (November shipment) is 240 cents/bushel, down 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the US West Coast (November shipment) is 165 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (November shipment) is 295 cents/bushel, unchanged from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Crude oil rebound provides support for international oils and fats [1] - Argentina's cancellation of the export tax on beans leads to a weak and volatile trend in US soybeans [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil reached 9,054 yuan/ton (down 3.27% during the day, up 0.27% at night); soybean oil hit 8,086 yuan/ton (down 3.35% during the day, up 0.17% at night); rapeseed oil stood at 9,996 yuan/ton (down 1.45% during the day, down 0.77% at night); Malaysian palm oil was 4,341 ringgit/ton (down 2.27% during the day, up 0.23% at night); CBOT soybean oil was 49.84 cents/pound (up 0.30%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 1,021,148 lots (an increase of 459,441 lots), and open interest was 387,927 lots (a decrease of 15,956 lots); soybean oil's trading volume was 817,864 lots (an increase of 527,798 lots), and open interest was 545,909 lots (a decrease of 23,441 lots); rapeseed oil's trading volume was 419,360 lots (an increase of 143,932 lots), and open interest was 328,042 lots (a decrease of 38,435 lots) [2] - **Spot Prices**: 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton (down 350 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,390 yuan/ton (down 320 yuan/ton); fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,980 yuan/ton (down 160 yuan/ton); Malaysian palm oil FOB was 1,105 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil in Guangdong was - 134 yuan/ton; soybean oil in Guangdong was 304 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 16 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 942 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 968 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil was 198 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil was 238 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 529 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: MPOC expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory to rise slightly from September to October and start to decline in November. The production in Sabah and Sarawak has not reached the seasonal peak, and the reserve is still within a controllable range [3] - **Indonesian Palm Oil Producer**: Agrinas Palma Nusantara aims for a crude palm oil production of 415,000 tons in 2025 and 1.07 million tons in 2026 [5] - **Indonesia - EU Agreement**: Indonesia and the EU signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, which is expected to benefit Indonesia's palm oil and other exports [5] - **Pakistan's Soybean Import**: Pakistani importers purchased about 180,000 tons of soybeans in September, with shipments expected from the US in January 2026 [5] - **Indian Crop Outlook**: India's 2025/26 monsoon - season food production is expected to exceed the target. Oilseeds and pulses are also optimistic despite reduced planting areas [6] - **EU's Oil and Fat Imports**: As of September 21, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil imports were 600,000 tons (compared to 800,000 tons last year), soybean imports were 2.86 million tons (compared to 2.98 million tons last year), soybean meal imports were 4.01 million tons (compared to 4.16 million tons last year), and rapeseed imports were 790,000 tons (compared to 1.22 million tons last year) [6] - **EU's Anti - Deforestation Regulation**: The EU will postpone the implementation of the anti - deforestation regulation for the second time to solve IT system problems [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The palm oil market has no obvious upward or downward drivers, and range trading is the main strategy. The soybean oil market is affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, and the oil market is undergoing a correction [1] Group 2: Industry News - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month [2] - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last month [3] - SGS estimated that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease from the same period last month [4] - Industry analysts expect that for the week ending September 11, 2025, US 2025/26 soybean export sales will increase by 40 - 150 million tons, US soybean meal export sales will increase by 10 - 40 million tons, and US soybean oil export sales will decrease by 5,000 tons to increase by 41,000 tons [4] - Anec predicts that from September 14 - 20, 2025, Brazil's soybean exports will be 2.1317 million tons, soybean meal exports will be 513,500 tons, and corn exports will be 2.6291 million tons [4] - As of the week ending September 10, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 597,900 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 73,300 tons of 2025/26 soybeans [5] - In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [6] - Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [7] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [8] Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures | Variety | Closing Price (Day Session) | Change Rate | Closing Price (Night Session) | Change Rate | Previous Day's Trading Volume | Volume Change | Previous Day's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | 9,424 yuan/ton | - 0.61% | 9,388 yuan/ton | - 0.38% | 680,632 lots | 88,956 lots | 436,003 lots | - 15,722 lots | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | 8,366 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | 8,350 yuan/ton | - 0.19% | 347,820 lots | 50,225 lots | 588,445 lots | - 9,285 lots | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | 9,999 yuan/ton | - 0.54% | 9,983 yuan/ton | - 0.16% | 334,643 lots | - 16,007 lots | 336,743 lots | 3,703 lots | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4,448 ringgit/ton | 0.07% | 4,422 ringgit/ton | - 0.63% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 51.82 cents/pound | - 2.59% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [1] Spot | Variety | Spot Price | Price Change | | --- | --- | --- | | 24 - degree Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 9,450 yuan/ton | 50 yuan/ton | | Grade - 1 Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 8,780 yuan/ton | 30 yuan/ton | | Grade - 4 Imported Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 10,040 yuan/ton | 50 yuan/ton | | Malaysian Palm Oil FOB (Continuous Contract) | 1,105 dollars/ton | 0 dollars/ton | [1] Basis | Variety | Spot Basis | | --- | --- | | Palm Oil (Guangdong) | 26 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil (Guangdong) | 414 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil (Guangxi) | 41 yuan/ton | [1] Spread | Spread Type | Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | 575 yuan/ton | 571 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil - Palm Oil Futures Main Contract Spread | - 1,058 yuan/ton | - 1,064 yuan/ton | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 212 yuan/ton | 230 yuan/ton | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 268 yuan/ton | 296 yuan/ton | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | 466 yuan/ton | 467 yuan/ton | [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats, with a major risk point being the El Niño weather [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as the production season approaches, the supply of palm oil will increase [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,508, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,516, with a basis of 34, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have changed to short positions [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,250 - 9,650 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the future [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,166, with a basis of 113, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多 Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空 Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The heavy rainfall in Malaysia may affect the palm oil picking progress in the short term [1] - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The USDA report maintains the expectation of a soybean bumper harvest, and the overall soybean supply remains in a loose pattern. The China-US negotiation is ongoing, which may have a further impact on future market prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of heavy rainfall in palm oil producing areas [3] Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,422.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +126 yuan and a change rate of +1.36% - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8,376.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +54.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.65% - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9,900.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +43.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.44% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,300.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.43%. The spot basis was P01 + -122.00, with a month-on-month change of -86.00 yuan - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,520.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +40.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +0.47%. The spot basis was Y01 + 144.00, with a month-on-month change of -14.00 yuan - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,110.00 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of +50.00 yuan and a change rate of +0.50%. The spot basis was OI01 + 210.00, with a month-on-month change of +7.00 yuan [1] Market Consultation - As of September 15, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.70444 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons compared to the same period last week - The Sabah state government of Malaysia announced the cancellation of the state-level Malaysia Day celebration originally scheduled for Tuesday (16th) at the Independence Square in Kota Kinabalu due to heavy rain causing floods in at least seven counties - As of September 12, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2512 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to last week, with a decline rate of 0.01% - The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 641,500 tons, an increase of 22,200 tons compared to last week, with an increase rate of 3.58%; an increase of 128,000 tons compared to 513,500 tons last year, with an increase rate of 24.92% - According to the data of shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from September 1 - 15 was 742,648 tons, a 2.6% increase compared to the export volume of 724,191 tons in the same period last month [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to the leading increase in the canola sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Niño weather [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,448, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2]. Daily Views - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 22, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has switched from long to short, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. Daily Views - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,026, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [4]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas is gradually being digested. Although there may be a callback window in September, going long on palm oil at low levels will be the main theme in the second half of the year. The price increase in the future depends on domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents/lb, and India's finding additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil [1][2]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. There is a chance to go long on soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking in September and the soybean import gap persists due to Sino - US trade issues. The soybean - palm oil spread will show a weak, range - bound performance when palm oil is not in a callback period [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Palm Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The 01 contract of palm oil fell 1.69% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **Supply Side**: In Malaysia, the rainfall in September may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons, and August might be the peak of this year's output. In Indonesia, the refining profit and the Indonesia - Malaysia price spread increased this week. The inventory build - up in Malaysia from July to September slowed down significantly, and it is unlikely to exceed 2.3 million tons. Starting from September, Indonesia's inventory will reach the bottom, and the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will build up until October and then start to decline rapidly [2]. - **Demand Side**: In the European market, the demand for palm oil remains strong. In the Indian market, the import profits of crude soybean oil and crude sunflower oil are better than that of CPO, which will suppress India's palm oil imports to some extent. China's demand is the second target for the producing areas, but it is difficult for the soybean - palm oil spread to return above the par level to stimulate China's demand [2]. Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Situation**: The market's trading of the soybean shortage in the fourth quarter slowed down. The soybean oil market was in a high - level consolidation, and the upward momentum was insufficient. The 01 contract of soybean oil fell 0.93% last week [1]. - **This Week's Fundamentals**: - **US Market**: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 57 cents. If the policies on import raw material subsidies are finalized, the policy negatives of US soybean oil will be exhausted, which will help reduce inventory [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The trend of the domestic soybean oil market depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade negotiation fails to remove the obstacles for Chinese enterprises to purchase US soybeans, the upward trend of the domestic soybean oil market after the National Day is expected to be more obvious [5]. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and their changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures are provided. The price spreads and changes of some varieties are also given [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: Charts show the estimated production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil in September, the inventory level of Indonesian palm oil, the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia, the price of fruit bunches in North Sumatra, Indonesia's refining profit, Malaysia's palm oil export volume, the POGO price spread, rainfall in Malaysia and Indonesia, India's palm oil import profit, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, and the cumulative import volume of palm oil and four major oils in the EU [10][11][13][14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The release of MPOB data has put pressure on Malaysian palm oil prices. The overall report is bearish as palm oil exports are lower than expected and inventory continues to increase. Additionally, recent actions by US senators against transferring small refinery blending obligations to large refineries may suppress biodiesel consumption, further pressuring overall oil prices [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 242 yuan or 2.55% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 152 yuan or 1.81% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan or 0.82% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan or 1.38%. The spot basis was P01 + 26 yuan, an increase of 112 yuan [1] - The spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%. The spot basis was Y01 + 204 yuan, an increase of 102 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth-grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.80%. The spot basis was OI01 + 200 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan [1] Malaysian Palm Oil Data - In August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.18% [2] - Palm oil production was 1,855,008 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.35% [2] - Palm oil exports were 1,324,672 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29% [2] - Palm oil imports were 49,036 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 19.66% [2] - From September 1 - 10, ITS data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports were 476,610 tons, a 1.2% decrease from the same period last month [2] - AmSpec data showed that exports were 415,030 tons, an 8.43% decrease from the same period last month [2] Other Market Information - Sovecon raised its forecast for Russia's 2025 wheat production from 86.1 million tons to 87.2 million tons. The total production of grains and beans is now expected to be 134.9 million tons, up from 130.5 million tons [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) decreased by 18 dollars/ton to 1,146 dollars/ton, and the December shipment price decreased by 26 dollars/ton to 1,142 dollars/ton [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged at 1,070 dollars/ton and 1,050 dollars/ton respectively [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 464 dollars/ton, the US West soybeans decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans decreased by 2 dollars/ton to 487 dollars/ton [2] - The import soybean premium for the Mexican Gulf (October shipment) remained unchanged at 235 cents/bushel, the US West Coast remained unchanged at 178 cents/bushel, and the Brazilian port decreased by 1 cent/bushel to 297 cents/bushel [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The palm oil market has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the origin, but the export data is good, consumption is strong, and there are also the impacts of biodiesel policies. The U.S. soybean harvest is about to start, with high expected yields and a relatively loose global soybean supply, but the situation of China - U.S. trade negotiations needs attention. Rapeseed still has a high - yield expectation. Overall, the oil market is a mix of long and short factors, and further drivers are needed to guide prices [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9390.00 yuan/ton, a change of +22 yuan or +0.23% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8356.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 10.00 yuan or -0.12%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9739.00 yuan/ton, a change of +12.00 yuan or +0.12% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a change of +80.00 yuan or +0.86%, and the spot basis was P01 + - 10.00, a change of +58.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8510.00 yuan/ton, a change of +30.00 yuan/ton or +0.35%, and the spot basis was Y01 + 154.00, a change of +40.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9900.00 yuan/ton, a change of +20.00 yuan or +0.20%, and the spot basis was OI01 + 161.00, a change of +8.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - The C&F prices of U.S. Gulf, U.S. West, and Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes for different regions (October shipment) remained unchanged. The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged. The C&F quotes of Canadian rapeseed oil (October and December shipments) remained unchanged, while the C&F prices of Canadian rapeseeds (November and January shipments) decreased by 10 dollars/ton and 1 dollar/ton respectively [2] - According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA), the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in August was 1.85 million tons [2] - This week, the international and domestic palm oil prices fluctuated downward, with the domestic decline greater than the international one. The price inversion of China's palm oil imports widened. The import CNF quotes of 24 - degree palm oil for October and November shipments decreased by 7 dollars/ton and 9 dollars/ton respectively, and the South China arrival duty - paid costs decreased by 70 yuan/ton and 90 yuan/ton respectively [2]