1.谈"热门"赛道：迟早要面对惨烈竞争 人工智能、生物科技、新能源等领域，随着时间推移，迟早也会走到产能扩张、竞争加剧的那一步，这 是市场规律，只是早晚的问题。 新行业，我承认它们的方向肯定没问题，未来也会产生机会。但从投资角度，我更关注这些企业能否真 正跑出确定性的盈利和生存能力。 它们大多是高投入的行业，烧钱快，周期长，一旦风向发生变化，或者长期不盈利，投资者的信心就会 被彻底打散。这种行业更多靠钱堆，而不是靠确定性的利润支撑。 你去翻那些代表"创新"的指数基金，里面的企业未来十年真正能活下来的，有多少？我心里是有数的。 2.谈"老赛道"：估值已在难得的位置 （原标题：林园重磅发声：当下，我只敢买这两类"保命"资产） 11月20日下午，百亿私募大佬林园公开发声，他直言：在全市场追逐科技热点的当下，他投资最底层的 核心是生存与盈利。 以下是林园最新观点的精华浓缩： 我们未来主要找两类企业：能让人快乐的和能让人活得更长的。 老祖宗说得好，人活一世，吃喝二字。吃喝是永恒需求。与此同时，人还希望活得更长、活得更好。 食品、消费这些行业的供需调整的更快，市场纠错能力更强。它们不需要巨额投入来维持增长；一旦产 能过多 ...

Group 1 - The core argument emphasizes that emerging industries like AI, biotechnology, and renewable energy will eventually face increased competition and capacity expansion, which is a natural market progression [3][10] - The company acknowledges the potential of new industries but stresses the importance of profitability and survival capability from an investment perspective, indicating a preference for traditional industries [3][13] - Traditional industries have experienced a downturn, but leading companies have maintained their positions due to scale, capital, and management advantages, which are reflected in their stock prices [4][16] Group 2 - The company believes that core indices like the CSI 300 and A50 are currently undervalued and can support the fundamentals of the Chinese economy, presenting a good investment opportunity [3][17] - The focus remains on consumer-related sectors, particularly those linked to the "mouth economy," which are characterized by quicker market corrections compared to fixed asset investments [3][19] - The company maintains that industries related to food and health will continue to have persistent demand, making them attractive for investment [3][22][44] Group 3 - The company expresses caution regarding the high uncertainty in new industries, which often require significant investment and have longer cycles to profitability [4][14] - The investment strategy prioritizes companies that can provide consistent profits and have a sustainable business model, rather than those that rely on speculative growth [4][51] - The company highlights the importance of understanding the long-term viability of investments, particularly in traditional sectors that have proven resilient over time [4][56]

其次是AI泡沫论。这个咱们在前面文章也讲过了，科技巨头投入了数万亿美元建设数据中心和AI能力，可何时能真正看到这些投入 带来的回报？英伟达则是那个关键，不夸张地说全球AI个股的表现都会受英伟达影响，甚至于美股的涨跌也要系英伟达于一身。不 过英伟达财报还是很给力的，无论是营收、利润还是对下一季度的展望，均显著高于市场预期，盘后股价也受影响大涨。今天日韩 股市能暴涨两三个点，也是因为深度绑定了英伟达产业链。不过财报虽然超出了华尔街预期，但不及陆家嘴预期，国内相关产业链 个股全都高开低走。虽然有不少分歧，但是美股看起来短期仍有支撑的逻辑。 来源：财经林妹妹 美股，日股，黄金，虚拟货币，大宗品过去的一周几乎全军覆没，A股走势也一言难尽，看起来又要触碰3900了。咱们今天主要来 分析一下原因，再说说对未来市场的判断。 | | | A股重要指数 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 涨幅 | 年初至今 | | 上证指数 | 3931.05 | -15.69 | -0.40% | +17.28% | | 深证成指 | 12980.82 | -99.27 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of recovery with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.02%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.08% and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 0.58%, marking five consecutive days of decline [1] - Market sentiment remains low, but there are indications of a potential rebound [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks such as Baidu, Meituan, and Kuaishou saw gains, with Baidu up by 2.43% and Kuaishou up by 2.28%, while Xiaomi continued to decline, dropping nearly 3% to a new low [3][5] - Financial stocks, including banks and insurance companies, performed actively, with several Chinese brokerage stocks showing gains despite a high open and subsequent decline [3][9] - The real estate sector remained strong in the afternoon, with Sunac China and Zhongliang Holdings leading the gains [3][8] - The biopharmaceutical, home appliance, and aviation sectors also showed relative activity [3] Real Estate Market Insights - According to Centaline Property, Hong Kong's residential market recorded over 1,700 transactions in October, marking the ninth consecutive month of over 1,000 transactions, matching the longest record from March to November 2019 [7] - The month also saw at least 64 transactions exceeding HKD 50 million, totaling over HKD 6.8 billion, a new high for the year [7] - Major international banks, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, predict a recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market post-2025 [7] Brokerage Sector Developments - Chinese brokerage stocks saw significant increases, with Financial Street Securities rising over 4% [9][10] - The announcement of major asset restructuring plans by several brokerages is expected to enhance industry consolidation and competitiveness [9] Semiconductor Sector Activity - The semiconductor sector was active, with stocks like Contrelon rising over 8% [10][12] - Reports indicate that the U.S. may delay the imposition of long-promised semiconductor tariffs, which could impact the sector positively [11] New Energy Material Sector Decline - The new energy materials sector faced declines, with companies like China Silicon Corporation dropping over 16% [13] - The lithium battery sector also saw significant drops, with CATL falling by 5.66% [14][15] Coal Sector Insights - Coal prices have risen above RMB 830 per ton, but short-term price increases may be stabilizing [16] - The coal industry's supply-demand dynamics have fundamentally shifted since May, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [16] Individual Stock Highlights - Gakos-B surged by 19.97% following the approval of its self-developed KRAS G12C inhibitor for commercialization [18] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 15.992 billion, indicating strong investor interest [21] Future Market Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates that the Hong Kong stock market will benefit from internal and external economic policies, predicting a second round of valuation recovery and performance resurgence by 2026 [23] - Suggested investment directions include technology sectors, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [23]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Tech Index has decreased by 0.82% as of November 20, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, where Baidu Group-SW led with a rise of 2.79% and Kingsoft fell by 8.98% [1] - Kuaishou Technology reported a 14.2% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3, reaching 35.6 billion yuan, with operating profit increasing by 69.9% to 5.3 billion yuan [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF has seen a 4.59% increase over the past three months, with a current trading price of 0.8 yuan [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities predicts a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, driven by a recovery in fundamentals and significant valuation discounts [2] - The report suggests five long-term investment directions, including the technology sector, healthcare, resource commodities, essential consumer goods, and sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [2] Group 3 - The latest size of the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF is 4.278 billion yuan [3] - The ETF has reached a new high with 5.639 billion shares outstanding, and has seen continuous net inflows over the past 15 days totaling 69.6169 million yuan [4] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Tech Index account for 68.89% of the index, including Alibaba-W, SMIC, and Tencent Holdings [4]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened significantly higher on November 20, with the Hang Seng Index at 25,999.78 points, up 169.13 points, a rise of 0.65% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index reported 5,646.28 points, increasing by 39.38 points, a gain of 0.70% [4] Company News - China International Capital Corporation (CICC), Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities announced a suspension of trading due to a major asset restructuring plan, which involves CICC issuing A-shares to acquire Dongxing and Xinda Securities [6] - Following this news, brokerage stocks collectively surged, with Shenwan Hongyuan Hong Kong (00218.HK) rising over 9%, and other firms like Dongfang Securities (03958.HK) and CITIC Securities (06030.HK) increasing by over 3% [6] Sector Performance - The technology sector saw more gainers than losers, with Baidu up over 3%, Kuaishou and Lenovo rising over 2%, and Alibaba increasing by over 1% [8] - Semiconductor stocks opened higher, with Huahong Semiconductor gaining over 3% [8] - The innovative drug sector mostly rose, with Gilead Sciences up over 3% [8] - Apple-related stocks experienced broad gains, with Hongteng Precision rising over 5% [8] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities' latest report suggests that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience a second round of valuation recovery and performance revival by 2026, driven by a rebound in fundamentals and significant valuation discounts [8] - Investors are advised to focus on five long-term directions: 1) Technology sector, including AI and consumer electronics; 2) Healthcare, particularly biotechnology; 3) Resource commodities benefiting from rising inflation expectations and de-dollarization; 4) Consumer sectors with low valuations expected to recover; 5) Paper and aviation sectors benefiting from RMB appreciation [8]

智通财经APP获悉，香港财政司司长陈茂波表示，香港金融管理局和沙特公共投资基金即将推出一支10 亿美元的基金，以支持香港和大湾区企业拓展沙特阿拉伯市场。基金将助力沙特非石油经济部门发展。 沙特一家大型开发公司下个月将在香港举办路演，寻求战略合作伙伴和专业服务提供商，以支持基础设 施建设。 陈茂波表示，创新及科技是香港的新增长引擎，会专注于人工智能、生物科技及金融科技等具有竞争优 势范畴。他认为，科技、人才、市场、土地资源及资金都不可或缺，很多企业已在港设立研发中心或区 域总部，可带动上下游合作伙伴来港，完善香港的创新生态系统。他说，香港政府亦正透过创新政策及 度身订造的鼓励措施，加快北部都会区发展。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing volatility due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific performance in both U.S. and international markets [3][4][11]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq up 0.13% [4][8]. - European indices faced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.69%, UK's FTSE 100 down 1.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.85% [4][8]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.85%, closing at 26,572.46 points, with significant declines in technology stocks [5][8]. - A-shares also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, closing below 4,000 points [6][9]. Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.13%, closing at $59.82 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.22% to $63.95 per barrel [4][8]. - Gold prices fell by 2.2%, ending at $4,079.58 per ounce, and silver dropped by 3.4% to $50.56 per ounce [8][9]. Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Schmidt, issued strong hawkish signals, indicating that further rate cuts may not be appropriate at this time [11]. - The market is reacting to these signals, with expectations of interest rate stability impacting various asset classes [11]. Corporate Developments - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a rare technology stock position, having built a stake in Alphabet, Google's parent company, during Q3 [11]. - Huawei is expected to announce breakthrough technologies in the AI sector, which could enhance computational resource efficiency [17].

智通财经APP获悉，香港投资公司成立3年后首次披露投资表现，港投公司行政总裁陈家齐表示，受惠 于对首次公开发行（IPO）及生物科技企业的投资，港投公司2024年创造超过20亿港元投资收益。港投 公司于2022年成立，初始投资基金涉及620亿港元，截至去年底，已投放的资金不足20%。港投公司除 获得香港政府初始注资的620亿港元资金外，还从新资本投资者计划中获得约28亿港元新资金。 她续指，港投公司计划在未来一年以更有系统的方式，加大投资力度。现时投资基金透过四大组合进行 投资，投资范围涵盖科技及生物科技等行业共150家公司。 陈家齐指，港投公司的投资速度与回报，与设定的目标完全一致，当局需要在投资风险与投资速度之间 取得平衡。现时投资基金已进入第二阶段，正在寻找主权财富基金、退休基及企业等区域合作伙伴，进 行更大规模的投资，与此同时，东南亚及中东的投资者对投资中港企业深感兴趣。 陈家齐认为，未来投资基金的增长主要动力将来由生科企业，而基金内不少企业正探讨在港上市，或併 购的可能性，而两家在港上市的企业，为基金带来两至三倍的回报。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares indices collectively strengthened, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high, and trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan from the previous period [1] - The technology sector, particularly the domestic AI industry chain, saw significant gains, with the AI-focused ETF (589520) rising nearly 2% and attracting 31.59 million yuan in five days [1] Sector Performance Technology Sector - Alibaba's secret "Qianwen" project aims to compete with ChatGPT, enhancing the global AI application landscape [1] Chemical Sector - The chemical ETF (516020) surged by 3.95%, reaching its highest closing price since March 2023, driven by rising prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and favorable government policies [1][10] - The National Energy Administration's guidance on promoting the integration of new energy is expected to drive direct project investments of approximately 250 billion yuan [1] New Energy and Electric Vehicles - The smart electric vehicle ETF (516380) and green energy ETF (562010) also saw significant gains, rising by 3.83% and 3.41% respectively [1] Hong Kong Market - The Hong Kong innovation drug ETF (520880) experienced a substantial increase of 4.6%, indicating a potential second wave of the innovation drug market [2][4] - The newly launched Hong Kong information technology ETF (159131) focusing on the chip industry rose by 1.11%, with a trading volume exceeding 80 million yuan [2] Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates 2026 to be a pivotal year for China's development, with a focus on new industries and consumption growth [4] - The chemical sector is expected to benefit from increased demand in the lithium battery supply chain, with significant price fluctuations noted [14] - The outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector remains strong, with a year-to-date increase of 75.9%, driven by robust earnings and strategic resource policies [18][20]