芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

波兰央行行长：未来货币政策委员会的决策将取决于即将公布的经济数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has made progress in controlling inflation but will not declare the task complete and will continue to monitor developments closely [1] Group 1 - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for ongoing vigilance despite achievements in inflation control [1] - The ECB possesses sufficient tools and flexibility to maintain stability in the face of potential financial market volatility [1] - Future policy adjustments by the ECB will be entirely based on economic data and inflation performance, without any pre-commitment to interest rate direction [1]

021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货6月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 120.600 | 120.750 | 120.720 | 120.680 | 0.120 | 0.10 | ...

Economic Data Summary - Initial Jobless Claims decreased by 9,000 to 236,000, marking the lowest level since mid-May [2] - Continuing Claims reached 1.974 million, the highest level since mid-November 2021, remaining above 1.9 million for five consecutive weeks [2][3] - Q1 GDP was revised down to -0.5%, the weakest quarter since Q1 2022, with consumption growth cut from +1.2% to +0.5% [4] - Durable Goods Orders surged by 16.4%, significantly exceeding the anticipated 7%, driven by a 234% increase in non-defense aircraft orders [6] - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance for May worsened to -$96.6 billion, with exports falling by 5.2% [7] - Advanced Retail Inventories increased by 0.3% month over month and 3.2% year over year, while Wholesale Inventories decreased by 0.3% [8] Company Insights - Nike is expected to report fiscal Q4 results with an anticipated earnings decline of 88% year over year and a 15% drop in revenues, despite a history of beating earnings estimates [10]

美联储巴尔金：近期经济数据表现稳健，经济前景仍不明朗。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：美国应继续投资于经济数据。政府数据收集方向令人担忧。 ...

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 ＃summary＃ 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 每日报告 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) | | 表1：国债期货6月24日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.260 | 121.230 | 120.930 | 120.940 | -0.330 | -0.27 | 76770 | 117168 | 1043 | | TL2512 | 121.120 | 121.050 | 120.780 | ...

Geopolitical and Economic Context - The U.S. launched an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, leading to retaliatory actions from Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions. However, market fatigue regarding geopolitical risks has led investors to focus more on Federal Reserve policy and economic data, resulting in gold prices not significantly rising despite the conflict escalation. The uncertainty in geopolitical situations still provides some safe-haven support for gold [2] - Recent U.S. economic data shows signs of weakness, with May retail sales dropping 0.9%, significantly worse than the expected -0.1%, and industrial production unexpectedly declining by 0.2%. This indicates weakening consumer demand and manufacturing momentum, potentially heightening concerns about the difficulty of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, indirectly supporting gold's safe-haven attributes [2] - Hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve pushed the U.S. dollar index to a high of 99.03 on June 19, fluctuating around 98.64 on June 23. A stronger dollar directly suppresses gold priced in dollars, with New York gold futures facing pressure around $3,380. Additionally, the two-year Treasury yield dropped 5 basis points to 3.88%, while the ten-year yield remained above 4.2%. Rising real interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to short-term pressure on gold prices [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - The spot gold price opened at $3,389.87 per ounce, experiencing significant fluctuations throughout the day, closing at $3,369.04 with a small bearish candle. The daily closing price is near the moving average, indicating potential oscillation around this level, with a downward bias in price structure [5] - Hourly price movements are entangled with moving averages, showing no clear direction. Currently near the previous day's low, it is advisable to wait for the market to choose a direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart indicates a strong downward movement at the previous day's close, suggesting the likelihood of new lows, with a recommendation to sell on rallies [6] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver opened at $35.9665, showing intraday fluctuations with a slight upward bias, closing at $36.080 with a small doji candle. The closing price is above the 20-day moving average, with multiple retests indicating stabilization, suggesting a bullish outlook and opportunities for long positions [8] - The hourly chart indicates that the pullback is nearly complete, beginning a bottoming oscillation phase, with a mixed directional outlook. It is recommended to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before taking action. The 15-minute chart shows a significant drop at the previous day's close, finding support at the bottom, and currently showing signs of a rebound, likely within a range-bound movement [8]

金融研究 2025年6月24日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 23 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 0.65%，报收 3381.58 点；深成 指上涨 0.43%，报收 10048.39 点；创业板指上涨 0.39%，报收 2017.63 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.38%， 报收 961.49 点。市场成交 11,469 亿元，较前日增加 552 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+2.25%)， 国防军工(+1.97%)，煤炭(+1.68%)涨幅居前；食品饮料(-0.8%)，家用电器(-0.43%)，钢铁(-0.11%) 跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,443/130/842。沪深两市，机构、 主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 52、-31、-79、58 亿元，分别变动+151、+94、-67、-177 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 148.62、101.37、49.5 与 31.18 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-15.28%、-11.17%、-8.02%与-7.26%，三年期历史分 ...