智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通策略师表示，如果美国总统唐纳德·特朗普成功任命一位关键成员进入美联 储，那么美国国债收益率曲线可能会从四年来最宽的水平进一步变陡。周四，美国5年期和30年期国债收益 率之差扩大，此前特朗普宣布，提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事一职，以填补美 联储理事阿德里安娜·库格勒突然辞职留下的空缺。该任命需经参议院批准。此外有报道称，美联储理事克 里斯托弗·沃勒有望接替杰罗姆·鲍威尔担任美联储主席。 由于上周就业数据不佳，货币市场加大了对美联储降息的押注力度。目前，掉期交易预计美联储9月份降息 25个基点的可能性为95%，并预计年底前至少还会再次降息一次。交易员们也在关注下周公布的美国通胀数 据。经济学家预计7月份通胀率将从6月份的0.3%降至0.2%。 以杰伊·巴里为首的摩根大通分析师团队周四晚些时候发布报告称："米兰一直认为，特朗普政府的贸易、移 民和放松管制政策都会抑制通胀。从这个角度来看，这支持了美联储采取更为鸽派的政策，也解释了今天 所观察到的收益率曲线陡化现象。" 周五，美国30年期国债收益率稳定在4.82%。 美债收益率曲线恐进一步趋陡 利差目前维持在略高于1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, which aligns with market expectations [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The voting result for the decision was 9 in favor and 2 against, with one member absent, marking the first time since late 1993 that two members opposed the rate decision [1] - The dissenting votes came from Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who argued for a 25 basis point rate cut [2] Group 2: Economic Considerations - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep rates unchanged is influenced by inflation pressures and economic uncertainties in the U.S. [2] - Powell emphasized that the Fed is in a favorable position to observe and will closely monitor U.S. inflation data as a key factor for future monetary policy [2] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Expectations - Following the July meeting, the market's expectation for a September rate cut dropped significantly from 63.3% to 43.2% [3] - Analysts predict a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points by the end of the year, with a higher likelihood of a cut in November rather than September [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices have risen due to a weaker dollar and investor focus on trade developments ahead of the August 1 tariff deadline [1] - Lower-than-expected US inflation data did not lead to a re-evaluation of hawkish interest rate expectations, allowing gold to rebound from a major upward trend line [1] - With the Federal Reserve's easing policy, real yields are likely to continue declining, supporting an upward trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - Today's gold trading saw a profit from a long position at 3356, closing at 3370 for a gain of 14 points, while a short position at 3375 resulted in a loss of 8 points, leading to a small overall profit [3] - The gold market showed slow upward movement during the day, with limited opportunities for pullbacks, leading to a chase of the upward trend [5] - The current strong resistance level for gold is between 3373-3375, with potential for testing the 3410 level as it has reached 3395 [5] Group 3 - A recommendation was made to go long near 3375, with a stop loss at 3365 and a target range of 3395-3405 [7]

Group 1 - The price of gold has faced a significant resistance at $3,400, with multiple attempts to break through failing, leading to a bearish sentiment in the market [1][4][9] - Gold ETF holdings have declined for 12 consecutive weeks, with a notable outflow of 10.2 tons in a single day, indicating institutional withdrawal from gold investments [1][4] - The actual interest rate, calculated as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield minus inflation, is currently at 1.46%, which is more attractive than gold's zero yield, prompting investors to favor bonds over gold [4][9] Group 2 - Despite increased industrial demand for gold, such as a 25% rise in gold usage in Apple's new phones and a doubling in TSMC's 3nm chips, industrial gold only accounts for 10% of total demand, insufficient to drive significant price increases [2] - The price of silver remains low at around $31, despite industrial demand comprising 60% of its total usage, highlighting a significant price distortion compared to historical averages [2] Group 3 - Major gold mining companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold have seen their stock prices drop significantly, indicating a bearish outlook for the gold mining sector [6] - The recent surge in gold prices due to geopolitical tensions has been short-lived, with prices quickly retreating after initial spikes, reflecting a lack of sustained investor confidence [4][8] Group 4 - Central bank gold purchases reached a record high of 1,037 tons last year, but there has been a sharp decline in purchases in the first quarter of this year, signaling a cooling trend in demand [8] - The market's reaction to geopolitical risks has become increasingly muted, as evidenced by minimal price movements in response to significant events [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price is experiencing weak fluctuations around $3,330, influenced by technical resistance and market uncertainties regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical tensions [1][3]. Economic Data - Recent U.S. inflation and employment data show strong performance, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) remaining flat month-on-month and a narrowing year-on-year increase, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicates persistent inflation [3]. - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement limited rate cuts within the year, despite high core CPI and hawkish comments from Fed officials [3]. Market Reactions - President Trump's comments about potentially dismissing Fed Chair Powell caused short-term volatility, pushing gold prices to a three-and-a-half-week high of $3,377, but subsequent denial led to a return to rational market sentiment [3]. - New tariffs on pharmaceuticals and copper have heightened global market risk aversion, providing some support for gold prices [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold is currently trading in the lower Bollinger Band range after a peak of $3,499.83, indicating a consolidation phase with key resistance at $3,444.82 and support at $3,278 [4]. - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, but diminishing selling pressure suggests a potential weak rebound [5]. - The RSI is stable at 49.47, indicating neutral market sentiment but slightly weak, with no clear direction expected in the short term [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations and the highest increase since February [1] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, matching market expectations and higher than the 0.1% increase in May, marking the second-highest monthly increase in 2025 [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% month-on-month, accelerating from 0.1% in May, while the year-on-year core CPI growth was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3% [1] Group 2 - The market is currently pricing in a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates in July, indicating that the June inflation data has not significantly impacted short-term rate cut expectations [2] - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding a potential rate cut in September, with a 48% probability of maintaining rates and a 52% probability of a rate cut, reflecting growing concerns about possible inflation rebounds [2] - The article suggests that while June's CPI data shows some warming, the overall performance remains moderate, and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on commodity prices is beginning to emerge, warranting further observation [2]

Core Insights - The June inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly above market expectations of 2.6%, primarily driven by rising energy prices [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a continued trend of lower-than-expected inflation [3][5] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more pronounced, with economists warning that price increases related to tariffs may not be immediate but could lead to greater consumer cost pressures over time [5][6] Inflation Data - The consumer price index (CPI) for June increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest year-on-year increase since February [3] - Energy prices rose by 0.9% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, with gasoline and fuel prices also increasing [3][4] - Core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.2% and year-on-year increase of 2.9% reflects a slowdown in rent inflation and used car prices [3][5] Market Reactions - Following the CPI report, both the stock and bond markets faced pressure, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 400 points and the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% [4][7] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have diminished, with the probability of maintaining rates in July rising to 97% [7][8] Tariff Impacts - Recent trade policies have led to increased tariffs on a wide range of goods, causing uncertainty in pricing for businesses and consumers [5][6] - The potential for rising prices on imported goods due to tariffs is expected to manifest in the coming months as companies deplete existing inventories [5][6] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is currently assessing the impact of tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, with a divided outlook among policymakers regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [7][8] - The influence of tariffs on inflation is expected to be a gradual process, with significant effects possibly taking months to fully materialize [5][6][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tracking of U.S. inflation data and anticipates that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates in the second half of the year, raising questions about the pressure on gold prices [1] Group 1: U.S. Inflation Data - U.S. inflation data is being closely monitored as it influences monetary policy decisions [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is linked to the inflation trends observed in the economy [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in the latter half of the year, which could impact various asset classes [1] - The anticipated rate cuts are a response to the evolving economic conditions and inflation metrics [1] Group 3: Gold Market Implications - The article raises concerns about how the expected interest rate changes may affect gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider the implications of monetary policy shifts on gold as a safe-haven asset [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term international situation is volatile, and risk preference drives market sentiment back. A - shares have a significant increase, and different futures varieties in various sectors present different trends and investment opportunities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - The large - finance sector continues to reach new highs, and A - shares rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 variety and sell the 09 call options near 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. Bond Futures - Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's restart of bond purchases. The overall pattern of bond futures is short - term volatile but generally strong. In the unilateral strategy, bond futures can be appropriately bought on adjustments, and in the spot - futures strategy, attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening of the yield curve [2]. Precious Metals - The impact of geopolitical conflicts fades. The expectations of fiscal and monetary easing in Europe and the United States boost precious metals. It is recommended to continue the strategy of selling out - of - the - money options on both sides of gold, and silver prices are driven by easing expectations in the short term [2]. Shipping Index Futures - It is recommended to watch cautiously. The 08 contract of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 [2]. Steel Futures - Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is mainly a wait - and - see approach, and for arbitrage, the strategy of going long on finished products and short on raw materials can be considered [2]. Iron Ore Futures - It is recommended to try shorting on rebounds, with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. Coking Coal Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices or go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Coke Futures - It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Base Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, etc.) - For copper, the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000; for aluminum, between 19600 - 20600; for zinc, between 21500 - 22500. Each metal has its own supply - demand and price characteristics, and corresponding investment strategies are provided [2]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil: The market is mainly oscillating, and short - term long positions can be considered at low prices. For other chemical products such as PTA, PF, etc., different investment strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand and price trends [2]. Agricultural Futures - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, palm oil, etc., have different market trends. For example, soybeans may have short - term corrections, and different trading strategies are given for each product [2]. Special and New Energy Commodity Futures - For special commodities like glass and rubber, and new energy commodities like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, corresponding price trends and investment strategies are provided [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran, with gold reaching a near seven-week high of $3,450.93 per ounce [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 4% last week, driven by fears of broader conflict in the Middle East following Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets, which included nuclear facilities and military command centers [3][4] - The market anticipates further increases in gold prices, with projections suggesting it could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, supported by strong central bank buying and expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] Group 2 - The ongoing conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with reports indicating at least 10 deaths in Israel and 138 in Iran due to the recent attacks, including many civilians [4] - Israeli officials have indicated that their military operations will continue, targeting various sites in Iran, which may lead to further escalations in the conflict [4] - The geopolitical situation is expected to maintain high demand for safe-haven assets like gold, as investors seek to mitigate risks associated with the conflict [3][4]