Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the commencement of winter heating in northern China and the proactive measures taken by major energy companies, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), to ensure energy supply during the winter season [1] Group 1: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) - CNPC has fully activated its winter supply mode, aiming to meet the natural gas demand during the winter heating season [3] - In November, CNPC has been supplying an average of nearly 700 million cubic meters of natural gas daily, marking an 8.5% year-on-year increase, with a peak supply of 735 million cubic meters [3] - The company has arranged for seven gas storage facilities to extract gas, with a daily extraction capacity of nearly 20 million cubic meters [3] - For the winter heating season, CNPC plans to increase natural gas supply resources by 3.7% year-on-year, accounting for over 60% of the domestic supply [3] - The Longqing Oilfield, CNPC's largest natural gas production base, has increased its daily natural gas output to 135 million cubic meters, up by over 3 million cubic meters since the beginning of the month [5] - CNPC's various oil and gas fields are accelerating production to meet the peak gas demand, with significant contributions from fields like the Southwest Oil and Gas Field and Daqing [5] Group 2: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) - Sinopec has launched geothermal heating services across 11 provinces and municipalities, covering over 70 cities and counties, providing clean heating for more than 1.2 million households [6] - The geothermal heating capacity has reached a historical high of 12.6 million square meters, which can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by nearly 6.2 million tons annually [6]

Energy Supply and Demand Overview - The overall energy supply and demand situation is being assessed as the peak winter season approaches in 2025 [1] - Key resources such as natural gas and coal are being prepared for supply [1] Natural Gas Supply - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has entered the natural gas winter supply phase, with resources from various oil and gas fields being allocated nationwide, ensuring overall supply security for this winter and spring [3] - The largest gas storage facility, the Huitu Bih Gas Storage in Xinjiang, has injected over 5 million cubic meters of natural gas into the pipeline, while the Tarim Oilfield's Keriya Gas Storage has surpassed 200 million cubic meters, supporting gas demand in southern Xinjiang [5] - CNPC is maximizing production from oil and gas fields and coordinating natural gas imports, achieving a peak daily supply of 738 million cubic meters as of November 11, with seven gas storage facilities operational to ensure heating in northern regions [7] Coal Supply - The China Electricity Council indicates that the coal supply and demand are currently balanced, creating favorable conditions for electricity supply during the winter peak [9] - The National Energy Administration is urging coal-producing provinces and companies to accelerate the construction of coal reserve projects to enhance emergency supply capabilities [10] - Since October, the national average daily coal production has remained above 12.3 million tons, with power plants holding 227 million tons of coal as of November 11, sufficient for 35 days of use [10] Electricity Supply and Demand - The China Electricity Council forecasts a generally balanced electricity supply and demand during the winter peak, although some regions, particularly in North and East China, may experience tighter supply during peak periods [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of energy supply security during the heating season in Jinan, highlighting the collaborative efforts of various power departments to ensure reliable heating for residents [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Supply and Infrastructure - Jinan officially entered the heating season on November 15, with the National Development and Reform Commission focusing on ensuring energy supply for heating needs [1]. - The State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company is actively supporting key projects such as "Chatou Heating into Jinan" and the Longqing Power Plant's supporting transmission channels to enhance energy security [1][3]. - The "Chatou Heating into Jinan" project has achieved its first production capacity before the heating season, covering a heating area of 1 million square meters, supported by robust electricity supply [3]. Group 2: Project Coordination and Support - The B4 relay pump station serves as a central hub for the entire heating supply, with stable electricity directly impacting overall heating performance [5]. - The power supply department has created a multi-line guarantee system for the pump station, addressing challenges such as tight schedules and adverse weather conditions [5]. - The Longqing Power Plant's supporting transmission channel is crucial for energy delivery, with significant coordination efforts from power departments to ensure smooth construction [7]. Group 3: Technical Support and Operational Readiness - The successful grid connection of the 2×66 MW supercritical units was achieved with extensive technical support from provincial and municipal power departments [9]. - Power experts provided hands-on guidance throughout the planning and commissioning phases, ensuring that the units were operational before the heating season [9]. - The collaboration between the Jinan Thermal Power Group and power departments has significantly enhanced regional energy supply capabilities, ensuring that residents have reliable heating during the winter [9].

煤炭是能源保供的压舱石。张燕秦介绍，今年前三季度，全国规上原煤产量35.7亿吨，同比增长 2%；10月份以来，全国煤炭日均调度产量持续处于1200万吨以上的较高水平。从当前情况看，今年迎 峰度冬煤炭供应基础坚实可靠。 据了解，迎峰度冬期间，国家能源局将持续跟踪煤炭生产、进口、需求等重点指标变化趋势，会同 有关方面全力做好迎峰度冬煤炭保供相关工作。一是着力做好重点地区电煤保供。督促蒙东地区全力做 好东北电煤供应，指导两湖一江、西南等地区与重点产煤省区沟通对接，压实电厂等用煤企业储煤责 任，拓宽省外煤采购渠道，切实保障电煤需求。二是分析研判迎峰度冬期间可能影响煤炭供应的不利因 素，提前做好寒潮、大风等极端灾害天气的应对措施，避免产量大幅波动。三是指导督促有关产煤省 （区）和煤炭企业加快产能储备煤矿项目建设，不断提升煤炭应急保障能力。 天然气方面，供需总体保持平稳，形势稳中向好。张燕秦说，国产气将实现连续9年稳定增产超百 亿立方米，陆上进口管道气稳定增长，西气东输三线中段、西气东输四线以及川气东送二线四川资源上 载段均按期建成投产，"全国一张网"灵活调节和尖峰保供能力进一步增强；地下储气库超额完成年度注 气任务，满 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration is taking various measures to ensure energy security and stable supply during the winter heating season, focusing on electricity supply and coal and gas availability [1][2][3] Group 1: Electricity Supply - The electrification rate in China is continuously increasing, making stable electricity supply a top priority [1] - The risk of ice disasters on transmission lines in northern regions is rising due to shifting weather patterns, prompting the need for targeted strategies for power supply [1] - The administration emphasizes a coordinated approach across all segments of the power supply chain to maintain grid safety and meet residential heating needs [1] Group 2: Coal Supply - In the first three quarters of the year, China's raw coal production reached 3.57 billion tons, a 2% year-on-year increase, with daily coal dispatch levels remaining above 12 million tons since October [2] - The National Energy Administration will monitor key indicators related to coal production, imports, and demand to ensure coal supply during the winter [2] - Specific measures include ensuring coal supply for key regions, addressing potential adverse factors affecting coal supply, and accelerating the construction of coal reserve projects [2] Group 3: Natural Gas Supply - The overall supply and demand for natural gas remain stable, with domestic production expected to exceed 10 billion cubic meters for the ninth consecutive year [3] - Key pipeline projects are completed on schedule, enhancing the flexibility and peak supply capabilities of the national gas network [3] - Underground gas storage facilities have exceeded annual injection targets, ensuring adequate reserves for the heating season [3]

Report Summary - As of November 11, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.76%, a week-on-week decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non-housing construction projects decreased by 0.16 percentage points week-on-week, while that of housing construction projects increased by 0.05 percentage points week-on-week [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, emphasizing stable energy production and supply, including coal production, transportation, and power generation, and ensuring the fulfillment of medium - and long - term energy contracts [5]. - Domestic coking coal supply increased slightly, with low inventory pressure. Independent coke enterprises reduced coking coal inventory slightly, and steel mills maintained just - in - time procurement. Coke production was weakly stable, iron - water production increased, and coke consumption rose. The fourth round of price increase for coke was partially implemented, but the implementation time was postponed [5]. - This week, the double - coke futures market fluctuated weakly. The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [5]. Market Focus Bullish Factors - Low inventory pressure of coking coal [8] - Strong performance of thermal coal prices [8] Bearish Factors - Slowdown in China's economic data growth in October [8] - The National Development and Reform Commission's winter energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of coal supply [8] Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,629.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year. In October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [13]. Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 14, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 86.28%, a week - on - week increase of 2.52%, and the daily average output was 757,400 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.43%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the daily average output was 274,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons. As of the week of November 8, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased [15]. Coking Coal Inventory - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.6506 million tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons; the coking coal inventory of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 3.0082 million tons, an increase of 58,500 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.985 million tons, a decrease of 57,700 tons [17]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 10.6897 million tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.76 days, an increase of 0.11 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises was 581,500 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons [20]. - As of November 14, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9017 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons. The available days of inventory were 12.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 6.224 million tons, a decrease of 42,400 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 11.06 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared with the previous period [24]. Coke Production and Consumption - As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coke enterprises was 71.64%, a decrease of 0.67% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.14%, an increase of 0.15% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of coke was 461,700 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [26]. - As of the week of November 14, China's coke consumption was 1.066 million tons, an increase of 12,000 tons. The daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was 236,880 tons, an increase of 26,600 tons [28]. Coke Price Increase - As of November 14, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises was a loss of 34 yuan/ton, and the loss increased. The fourth round of price increase was gradually implemented. As of November 14, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 38.96%, a further decrease of 0.87% compared with the previous period. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, and steel mills postponed the implementation of the price increase, limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises [30]. Basis Structure of Double - Coke Futures and Spot - The spot prices of double - coke were firm, while the futures expectations weakened [32]. Market Outlook - The National Development and Reform Commission's energy supply guarantee meeting revised the expectation of a tight coal supply - demand pattern. Macroeconomic data showed a slowdown in economic growth, and the market still needs policy support. In the short term, the market lacks positive drivers and will maintain a volatile trend, with funds gradually shifting to the far - month 05 contract. Attention should be paid to the intensity and rhythm of downstream winter storage and the impact of domestic stock market sentiment on intraday market fluctuations [34]. - This week, the increase in hot - metal production drove up coke consumption. The increase in the average loss per ton of coke promoted the implementation of the fourth round of price increase. The decrease in the profitability rate of steel enterprises intensified the game between steel and coke enterprises, postponing the implementation of the price increase and limiting the profit margin of coke enterprises. The futures market followed the fluctuations of coking coal [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side of ferrosilicon is expected to see a decline in production from November to December due to losses of manufacturers and postponed new - capacity launches. The demand side will continue the downward trend of crude steel production, and the alloy is likely to remain in a loss state. It is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate in the range of 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - Macro: The "anti - involution" policy has led to the first monthly increase in PPI since last November, and the year - on - year decline has reached the smallest in over a year. Policies for new energy consumption and regulation have been released, and an energy supply guarantee meeting has been held [7]. - Overseas: Trump warned of an "economic disaster" if the Supreme Court rules against imposing comprehensive tariffs [7]. - Supply and demand: Market transactions are mainly for end - user rigid demand restocking, and inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 480 yuan/ton. The November tender price of Hegang 75B ferrosilicon is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round [7]. - Technology: The weekly K - line of the ferrosilicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy: Considering the macro - situation, supply, and demand, it is expected that ferrosilicon will fluctuate between 5400 - 5700 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Overall Futures and Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon futures contract open interest was 382,000 lots, a net increase of 25,000 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 12, a decrease of 54 points [13]. 3.2.2 Futures Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 8450, an increase of 2751. The Ningxia ferrosilicon price was 5240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of November 14, the ferrosilicon basis was - 330 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 points [22]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1 Industry - This week (November 13), the national average capacity utilization rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.42% from last week. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a decrease of 4.36% (710 tons). The weekly demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel products was 19,073.8 tons, a decrease of 3.73%. The national weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons [28]. - This week (November 13), the national inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 81,360 tons, an increase of 3.39% (2670 tons). Inventory in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Gansu increased, while that in Shaanxi and Qinghai decreased [32]. 3.3.2 Upstream - As of November 10, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Ningxia remained unchanged at 0.395 yuan/kWh, while that in Inner Mongolia decreased by 0.025 yuan/kWh to 0.405 yuan/kWh. As of November 13, the price of semi - coke remained unchanged [37]. - As of November 13, the spot production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.91%, and in Ningxia was 5631 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.49%. The spot profit in Ningxia was - 481 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.50% [41]. 3.3.3 Downstream - This week, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3688 million tons, an increase of 26,600 tons from last week and 9400 tons from last year. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative exports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% were 292,900 tons, a decrease of 22,900 tons (7.25%) from the same period last year [46].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures declined slightly compared to the previous day's closing prices, hitting new lows since October 23 during intraday trading. The futures of coke and coking coal dropped significantly due to coal supply - guarantee policies. Although the spot market still has support, considering the large increase in Mongolian coal customs clearance and the significant growth in coking coal inventories of independent coking plants and ports, there may be downward pressure on prices due to oversupply. It is expected that the futures of coke and coking coal still need to digest the strong negative factors from the news, and it is advisable to try high - selling hedging or investment strategies. Attention should be paid to the implementation of supply - guarantee policies and the rhythm of spot price declines [5][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: On November 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures, J2601 and JM2601, first declined and then rebounded. J2601 closed at 1686 yuan/ton, down 0.30% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 13,768 lots and an open interest of 37,775 lots, a decrease of 164 lots. JM2601 closed at 1214 yuan/ton, down 0.29%, with a trading volume of 572,483 lots and an open interest of 592,106 lots, a decrease of 991 lots. In the black - series futures, the long - short positions of the top 20 in RB2601, HC2601, SS2601, J2601, JM2601, and I2601 contracts also changed [5][6]. - **Spot Market**: On November 13, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 1620 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in some regions was stable, with a 40 - yuan increase in Linfen [8]. 3.2 Outlook for the Future - **Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, requiring all regions and relevant enterprises to ensure stable energy production and supply, improve the performance of medium - and long - term coal contracts, and focus on ensuring coal demand in northern heating areas [10]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to continuous losses for four weeks, the coke output of independent coking enterprises dropped to a new low since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continued to reduce coke inventories, port coke inventories have increased in the past five weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly, and the coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have also increased [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Water Conservancy Construction**: From January to October this year, China completed 1.00947 trillion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 46,000 water conservancy projects, and started 28,000 new projects, creating 2.484 million jobs and paying 47.06 billion yuan in wages [12]. - **Energy in Yunnan**: From January to September, Yunnan's energy department promoted the integrated development of "source - network - load - storage", driving a 11.3% increase in coal production, a 7.4% increase in crude oil processing volume, a 6.2% increase in refined oil production, and a 17% increase in natural gas consumption [12]. - **Anhui Kuangneng**: From November 10 - 12, Anhui Kuangneng held a production and operation work symposium for the coal sector, summarizing this year's work and planning next year's key tasks [12][13]. - **Concrete Industry**: Affected by the real - estate market adjustment and infrastructure investment slowdown, the demand in the cement industry is weak, and prices are low. However, prices are expected to recover to some extent under the anti - involution trend [13]. - **Shanxi Coking Coal**: The company's main products are high - quality coking coals, and it has established long - term strategic partnerships with many large steel enterprises. It also has a power generation business with a power - generation capacity of 4.32 million kilowatts per year [13]. - **Other News**: There were coal mine accidents in Henan; Lu'an Huaneng announced its coal production and sales in October; Fangda Special Steel is cooperating with CATL; Handan launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution; Shaanxi's industrial production and consumption of coal, natural gas, and oil showed different trends; Inner Mongolia's coal production was stable, and its new - energy installed capacity increased; Newcastle Port and Indian coal production and exports had certain changes; OPEC predicted an oversupply in the oil market in 2026; India imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese steel [11][12][13][14][15]. 3.4 Data Overview The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization of coking plants and steel mills, iron - water production, coke and coking coal inventories, and the basis of futures contracts [18][20][25][27][28][29].

Group 1 - Gas stocks experienced a strong surge, with companies like Guo New Energy, Changchun Gas, and Victory Co. hitting the daily limit, driven by a significant cold wave expected to lower temperatures by over 12°C in some areas [2] - The cold wave is anticipated to create a seasonal peak in energy demand, likely increasing prices for natural gas and coal, with Qinhuangdao port's coal price exceeding 800 yuan per ton, marking a yearly high [3] - The National Energy Administration is reinforcing fuel supply measures to ensure energy availability during the heating season, with industrial coal production and natural gas output showing steady growth [3][4] Group 2 - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply and peak demand will be adequately met this heating season, with domestic gas production expected to exceed 10 billion cubic meters for nine consecutive years [4] - Major oil companies, Sinopec and PetroChina, are actively increasing their gas reserves and production, with Sinopec projecting a 4.4% increase in gas supply compared to the previous heating season [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of a significant cold wave on energy demand, particularly for natural gas and coal, leading to a surge in stock prices for gas companies and an increase in fuel prices due to heightened heating needs [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gas stocks experienced a strong rally, with several companies such as Guo Xin Energy and Changchun Gas hitting the daily limit up [2]. - The cold wave is expected to push temperatures down significantly, with some areas experiencing drops exceeding 12°C, leading to increased demand for heating [2]. Group 2: Fuel Price Trends - The price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port has surpassed 800 yuan per ton, reaching a yearly high, driven by early heating demand [3]. - The average daily coal consumption at coastal power plants has increased by over 15% year-on-year due to the early onset of winter [3]. Group 3: Energy Supply Assurance - The National Energy Administration has confirmed that natural gas supply will be sufficient for the heating season, with domestic production expected to exceed 100 billion cubic meters for the ninth consecutive year [4]. - Major oil companies are actively increasing their gas reserves and production, with China Petroleum's gas storage capacity reaching a historical high [4].